Let me begin with the numbers in the research you have been looking at. As you look at the trends tonight, what do they tell you . Dr. Mokdad we peaked on april 10 and they are coming down for the whole country but there are many states that are still going up and others are going down. Host how do you do your study . Dr. Mokdad we decided to model mortality on a daily basis and we used experience we have seen in china, italy, and spain. We reverse engineered the mortality how many beds we will need in the hospital and how many ventilators. So we know in the United States how many patients were admitted. Host at one point there was an expectation we could have 230,000 deaths and that number has come down, correct . Dr. Mokdad true. Our numbers have always been less than 100,000. The numbers have been coming down because of social distancing is working. Host can you look ahead at hotspots like new york city and miami and in Nursing Homes . How do you incorporate that into your data . Dr. Mokdad we get the data on mortality by age and sex on a daily basis and we are trying to adjust some things in the models. One is the exact reporting of deaths. The departments are doing an amazing job addressing the pandemic and sometimes it is reported the next day. Hospitals are good about reporting deaths but in Nursing Homes, there is a delay in reporting the deaths. Host part of what you did was educating the public and this has been a monthlong education in how to deal with pandemics. Is the message getting through, and do you worry if the government begins to reopen the economy, we could become lax in the months ahead . Dr. Mokdad the message is getting through. Right now we have two kinds of epidemics going on in the United States. One epidemic that has pete ed already in new york and now we are seeing a decline in cases and demand in the hospital. We see states who have delayed the recommendations of social distancing measures and they are still going up. They will peak in late april and early may. By june, the first set of states will be back to normal. So the message is getting out but the positive news [indiscernible] people are staying at home and adhering to the message. My concern if we go back and open businesses and we have a surge, yes, we are susceptible for the disease if we open measures too early, we could have a setback but at the same time, if we do proper testing and allow them to go back, we know we can relax more. [indiscernible] host as a doctor that heals who deals with health metrics, a lot of the information is available on your website, how does state and local government use the data . Dr. Mokdad this is valuable for local officials by distributing resources. We peaked in new york before we did in florida so we had ventilators sent to new york and then the next wave to florida. So maximizing resources at a time where early on we did not have as many and as we got more, we know where to allocate them and social distancing measures are working. Most important, reducing the demand on hospital resources and making sure physicians have enough to treat the patient and provide medical care. Mathematician, part statistician, and part position. I am not a physician, i am a numbers person, but i have been in Public Health for a long time. 20 years with the centers of disease control. The numbers do not mean anything unless you put them to good use and used wisely. Host our first caller joins us from orlando, florida. Good evening. Please turn the volume down our we will get a delay. Quick question. Will the medicine name ever be released to the public . Dr. Mokdad i do not get it. If there is a zpak or injection name for the virus, will it be released to the public early so they can get ready . Dr. Mokdad i am not sure i follow. You are asking me if there is a new medication available, would we tell the public . Of course. Host charles joins us from michigan. Today in lansing there was a huge demonstration with thousands of people protesting the way the state is shut down. I do not understand these peoples thinking. Are they not scared of dying . Take a look at what is going on in these hospitals and you will see its time people get serious about this. You cant spend money if you are not alive. Host thanks for the call. This is one of the photographs, courtesy of npr, about the crowds in michigan. The frustration from the state home orders by the governor they are and in other states around the country. Dr. Mokdad it is time to be compassionate. We have to understand many people are hurt and losing their jobs and loved ones so we have to be compassionate and come up with Solutions Rather than telling people to stay at home and only stay at home and what my message would be to the people is if you stayed at home at our advice, we are working on solutions to reopen the country again by testing and letting people go to work but do not , sacrifice the gains so far by releasing the workforce early. Be patient a few more weeks and we will have the solution. Host the next caller is from seattle, washington. Hello. For the doctor, i am here in your neighborhood in seattle. University of washington and that was probably long before the doctor had arrived. I was in the Immunology Department and my question is how can he explain, or will he explain, why the u. S. Is the number one in the highest number of deaths . Over 26,000. Host it is now over 32,000. Dr. Mokdad you cannot compare us to italy and france because they are smaller. You have to look at death rates. We have to remember a place like new york where new york city is the Financial Capital of the world and this is people coming from all over the world and spreading the virus. Especially in new york where there is public transportation. You cannot compare it as simple as it is. As far as i am concerned, the United States has got a great job at reducing the number of deaths and addressing the pandemic. Host pat is calling from california. My question is what level of testing will we need in order to start opening up the economy . In example, one in 1000, one 10,000 . Dr. Mokdad good question. We have to do this in phases. We have to make sure everyone is negative and has antibodies. And we monitored there is no infection circulating. We need to do it in a staged fashion. Doing testing of people who go to work and then we can relax a little more. We do not need to test everybody, but we need to test the first wave of people to make sure they are not spreading the virus around. Host can you explain the significance of that and plans of reopening the government . Dr. Mokdad let me give you an example. Right now the university of washington is having a discussion about fishermen going on a boat. They have to come to port to give the fish back. This is a very important industry for our country. So we would test these employees for 14 days to make sure they stay home before going on the boat. But when they come to port, test them to make sure they are not spreading the virus among the very important segment of employees. That is the example to keep in mind. So if you allow a company to come to work, you have to test employees before and then allow them to go to the factory or wherever and monitor them to make sure there is no circulation of the virus. That is why we are being cautious. Because the risk of having a second wave would be more damaging on the economy than waiting another week or two and to have a plan to roll out the first wave of people going back to work. Host a number of states today, new york, maryland, here in washington, d. C. We see the , mayor announcing if you are out in public, you need to have your nose and mouth covered. Why . Dr. Mokdad this is very important. A strategy to prevent the virus from circulation. What were are asking people is assume you are infected. , cover your mouth and nose with a mask so you do not spread it to someone else. We want the public to know it will not prevent you from getting the disease. You have to practice social distancing on wash your hands and other things we have advised. But that is one way of stemming the spread of the virus. Host john is on the phone from illinois. Watching world news, japan, spain, italy, you see they are spraying the streets and inside of buildings. What kind of cleaner is effective in doing that . I do not see news of us doing that. Is it effective or is it not doing anything . Dr. Mokdad every country is doing different measures. For us, it is practicing social distancing and staying at home as our first wave of defense. Alcohol 60 and above to kill the virus in public places. We will be doing this as we open our economy our buses and , trains, you will see more of that when we start opening businesses. Host dr. Mokdad is the Global Health professor and joining us from seattle. Joe is on the phone from east hampton connecticut. , good evening. Doctor, it is a privilege to talk to you. I wanted to bring to your attention a famous epidemiologist of 30 years, he says we have done everything all wrong. He says by social distancing and taking kids out of school, we stopped what he called the herd immunity from building up. He says the reality with the disease is 50 to 75 of our population are making it anyway, but by not letting it run its course, he makes on the basis of a lot of studies that we will have the biggest outbreak ever in july. What do you think of that idea . Dr. Mokdad that is a good question. In england, united kingdom, there was the same discussion about herd immunity, and lets not impose the social measures, and look what happened. They are facing an overwhelming problem so they went back and imposed social distancing. When you face a pandemic like this, one way is to check for herd immunity but the first wave of defense is social distancing. We have the best scientists in the country to find a way for us to prevent a lot of mortality. It is not the first line of defense because as far as we know right now, we do not know how long someone who has been infected carries antibodies, and for how long. So lets be careful until we know more about the disease. Some of the patients who have had it, we are monitoring them to see how long immunity lasts before we make any such decisions. Host dr. Ali mokdad joining us from seattle. I wanted to share with you the headline getting a lot of attention today from the l. A. Times. Essentially, canceling any concerts or sporting events until 2021. The idea is on the table according to the mayor. Dr. Mokdad that is a good decision to cancel. We can revisit later on but it is prudent right now not to have any of these events. Host let me ask you about the party conventions. Democrats and republicans meeting in milwaukee. Do you think the conventions will go on as planned . Dr. Mokdad not today. When i look at the data today, no. I do not envision any conventions happening like this. But we are monitoring the data and it will tell us when we can relax. Host jackie from washington, you are next. I am very happy to see you involved in this. I would like to see us find a wao andort and help each other adjust to the limitations we have on our lives. Maybe through Television Ads or something so that we can help people understand that they can adjust to this. Winky. Thank you. Dr. Mokdad thank you. This is a good point. Some are suffering more than others. Us who have jobs have a bigger responsibility to help others who do not have food or cannot get out to get food. That is why i keep saying it is time to be compassionate. We can come out stronger from this, i have no doubt in my mind. We have to take care of our own community. Thank you for reminding us that it is time to be compassionate with one another. Leslie, you are next up from lady lake, florida. It is a pleasure to listen to someone who has good advice as opposed to listening to the president every day. , is this an is manmade virus . I read an article that said it was. Sars andi read that corona were combined. Dr. Mokdad we do not have any evidence that the virus is manmade and nothing proves that. We are looking at data and there is no sign that this is manmade. Ok thank you. The other question, do you think , because medical people were not put in charge from the beginning getting us equipment the defenses and act wasnt done at the beginning, would people that u. S. Thatment in the send people off to were dashed off to war and they make it a know how to do it as opposed to Jared Kushner who did not know how to make equipment . I look forward, not backward. I cannot change the past and we all have to be united at this time and help one another. We need a plan to how to get out of this as fast as we can and we have to put all of our resources. This is something that should unite us and we should be compassionate and look forward, not backward. Ust dr. Peter lee joins tomorrow to talk about the china connection to coronavirus and his expertise in wet market, the originale source from china. Hello, i am a fourthyear medical student. I am doing additional stuff but a lot of Community Things right now. About medical resources, students, interns, i wanted to adviceuestion about what or wisdom you could impart to people in the middle of this. My colleagues are in the trenches trying to figure this. Ut and they are working hard asare trying our best medical students to volunteer and help out and do things to help protect the others, but i some potential medical student involvement and i am wondering what thoughts you have. Through all of this, the staff and hospitals have been heroes. They are endangering their lives in order to take care of patients. I cannot say enough to thank them and acknowledge what they have been doing. Them have experienced some difficult times and we need to keep in mind to make sure we take care of them after all of this. As for advice for medical students, right now we are looking at reopening the economy and looking at contract casing Contact Tracing if there is a positive case and checking on people. Volunteering is the best thing to do. Remind everybody that many of people who and delayed medical scans immunizations, we have to be ready to reopen the hospitals and clinics and we will need help because we will be overloaded by people who delayed services. It means you should give blood at well give blood, as well. Our next collar is from michigan. Is from michigan. You hear about testing of drugs but you never hear about results about how they are doing. Our country is using this stuff . Drugs anding over the a lot of them contain zinc. So i figured i would check out zinc. I went to walgreens and there is none on the shelves. The stores dont have any. Druggists told me as soon as it gets on the shelf, it is gone. Is it fairytales . Dr. Mokdad this is a good question on people ask a lot about this. We need to learn from the history. This is a new disease and we do not have a reference but the over evenu spread all when we did not have that much travel. There were two waves. The first wave hit the elderly, the second wave the younger people. Study wasme, a published that aspirin would help and people overdosed from aspirin and some people had severe conditions that led to their death because they were on aspirin. So we have to be very careful right now not to promote a drug until we are confident through Clinical Trials that it is working. Trials rightcal now on several drugs and we are pushing as much as we can and will release the findings when they are ready. States and places who shut down early during the spanish flu shot during the spanish flu saved more lives. So there are lessons to learn from what happened before. But we do not have a drug right and our staff is participating in trials for the vaccine. Host helen from wisconsin is calling. Hello. I am formerly a banker and now retired. Seems as though they are so concerned about covid during someones lifetime, but you dont hear about after death mortality and whether or not a mannereople in resolves an excavation of the virus. Does the virus die when the body dies . Dr. Mokdad excellent question. A lot of things we do not know with this virus. And places have changed the way they bury their andd one at this time precautions are taken during the burial. We do not know how long the virus stays in someone after they die. We do not know if it will come back as a resurgence or not. Host diane from winter park, florida. Good evening. Caller my understanding is that some states have peaked and some have not. If you are in a state that has not peaked, is it a good idea to open up the schools . Host thank you, diane. Dr. Mokdad that is a good question. Definitely, i dont like it. University was the First University my university was the First University to switch classes to one line. I know it is hard, especially for the students who rely on schools. We have to be compassionate and make sure we get them through. When we open our businesses, i would say we do not open the schools. We should focus on some basic industries that are crucial for the rolling out of the economy and get back online as soon as possible. Chools,s concerts schools, concerts, that is not something we should consider at this time. Host bonnie in miami, good evening to you. Room nurseoperating for many decades. My son is a neurosurgeon. Is thetion is, why American Medical Association or similar organizations with influence not furious and speaking of forcefully when andle advocate and promote pander drugs that have not been tested properly . And this goes right up the line to the president of the United States, who has no medical authority to do that. I feel like people should be speaking of forcefully to prevent others from taking drugs that could be serious. Thank you. Dr. Mokdad again, in the medical system, we wont recommend a drug unless we have an effective trial and it is safe to take it. Dodging your question, but it is time to be united, it is time to look forward, it is not time to pick fights right now. The more united we are, the more compassionate we are, the stronger we are in the and the faster we come out of this. Healthdata. Bsite is org if you want to check it out. Kathy in michigan,. Good evening. I caller i have a question. I have been looking at the numbers lately. What it looks like to me is that there is a significantly higher death rate in michigan than there are another states. Im wondering, am i seeing that curve correctly . And if that is true, why would that be . Dr. Mokdad this is a very good question. There are several factors that explain a higher mortality in one place compared to another. One of them is the social distancing we talk about. How fast it was implemented in the state. There is an unfortunate status in the system in the