I want to mention next week, next wednesday we will have our last webinar for the seminar partnerll be with our novelg about his new which is a look into the future of warfare and cyber warfare. He is a fantastic thinker and writer. Rhodes. Y, ben he is the former National Security deputy National Security advisor. Of pensee the world and ae the world, friend of ucla. Take it away. Mr. Rhodes thank you everyone for joining us for this. Commentske some open summarizing the argument i was and that this piece can set up the directions we go when in our conversation. Me, the genesis of this idea about the end of the 9 11 era is like anyone else, the extremity of the lockdown hit me in early march and for me, i was taking a walk with my daughters. We went down to venice beach which was completely empty, desolate. I had never seen it before. My daughter picks up a dandelion and i said make a wish. She said to make the coronavirus galway. Go away. For someone who worked in the white house, what hit me about that moment was that this crisis, covid19 is something that hit everybody in america. Including my daughter. She understood the crisis we are in in a way that terrorism never would or could. No terrorist could kill as many people as this disease already has. No terrorist act could have the economic impact. Impact willsocietal think about the fallout. You consider that we have spent trillions of dollars preventing terrorist attacks relative to what we spend on but it wasit hit me not a surprise. A pandemic is something people have been warning about for years. Ebola and by h1n1, the end of the Obama Administration, we were seized with the fact that issues other than terrorism far outweighed the risk of terrorism itself. I will come back to that and a second. For me, it recalled the sign tour of thence in a cia Operations Center that said every day is 9 11 september 12. I thought about what led the agency to put that up . That is kind of where america has been. I understood it because i witnessed 9 11. I worked with the 9 11 commission for two years. I entered politics because of the iraq war, which is how we got the response to wrong. For barack obama who would not have been elected president if it werent for the iraq war. As i reflected on the Obama Administration, i can see the many ways in which that presidency was shaped by 9 11. Inheritingoffice memo wars. Wars. Probably a bank shot to the financial crisis that we inherited from the trillions of dollars that were inherited from the counterterrorism in those years. In the first obama term in particular, you could feel working in National Security the kind of potential force of 9 11. He removed hundred 50,000 troops from iraq, he gets pulled deeper into afghanistan. We had very aggressive antiterrorism efforts. Controversial counterterrorism efforts like the drone policy. The hyper polarization of the middle east from u. S. Military interventions and the kind of leaders and places like egypt and saudi arabia in some ways legitimize themselves as partners of the u. S. Because of counterterrorism. Same time, particularly in the second term of the Obama Administration, obama was very deliberately trying to end this era. To move into a new one. If you look at the signature components of obamas foreignpolicy in the second term, each are trying to move us into a post9 11 world. Deal meant toar avoid another war in the middle east that could have been precipitated it around Getting Nuclear Weapons and dealing with a challenge to automatically. This climate accord meant to new focus ofbe the foreignpolicy. I dont think people fully appreciate how much work went into the paris accord not just in negotiating in the room but also in using our multilateral relationships to affect Climate Change. Tbp, sia, the chinaacific partnership, by then largely ignored United States in the decade after 9 11. We were trying to build an infrastructure that could shape the rise of china and shape rules of the road on everything from trade to technology to governance in ways that were meant to influence chinas behavior. Even the cuban [indiscernible] was meant to close a chapter in our history, type loose ends somebody get past that and engage not just cuba that our own hemisphere without the baggage of history. At the same time we were doing this, we were pulled back by world events and more so by american politics into this post 9 11 era. Isis and its emergence guaranteed we were going to remain militarily involved in the middle east albeit with a different model than the post9 11 wars without Ground Forces present. Even that is interesting to look back on because isis and ebola, terrorism and a pandemic emerged at the same time. One is so much more dangerous in a way that the other. Ebola threatened to kill millions of people. Think about how much attention was paid to isis, our media and politics and shows you how hardwired we have become as asricans to see terrorism inextricably linked to our National Security in a way that we dont think about pandemics. Just witht, not National Security, its what has been done to our politics that was so evident to me in a later obama years. Particularly as the Republican Party and key elements of it demonstrated on the radicalization around securitize, us versus them post 9 11 mindset. There was a toxic stew of issues. , demagogy refugees, immigration, that all very much tied back to this idea of fear of the other and polarization for the purpose of security. It is very characteristic of post9 11 america. It shows you how what might have started as a legitimate fear of terrorism morphed over time into and intoersus them donald trump. Too is thes psychology of a nation that after 9 11 was promised rate victories. I try to imagine what it was like to consume fox news throughout the bush presidency. You are constantly on the precipice of a great victory in iraq and afghanistan. Those victories did not materialize and never will. Win wars,ries dont often politicians look for people to blame within. That is the most tried and true tactic of how these things happen in history. It became blame obama. Blame muslims in the United States. Blame illegal immigrants. All of these things coming up melted together in the person of donald trump. The president , despite his rhetoric about winning wars, he has done the opposite. He has escalated every war. His with ae of rock. ,he narrative that i talk about ms 13 as a focus, immigrants as a focus, recently antifa, he a terroristos organization. Ofe we are in the midst multiple crises. The covid crisis will be the most transformative, and economic crisis and structural systemic racism and police violence. This is a time for fundamental transformation of how we think about National Security. The threats that we face, the challenges we have to deal with are not terrorism. It is still going to be an issue. Im not suggesting we dont Pay Attention to it. Time aure it against change, pandemics, emergence of new technologies and how that is going to pose risks to security. Authoritarian trend around the world that is challenging the very idea of democracy. The rise of china is a part of that. When we look at all that, we are not focused on the right tank. Our eye is not on the ball. At the same time, we have to get our act together at home. This innpack some of q a. What does that mean . In terms of National Security privatization, it means shifting to the threats i just talked about. That means resourcing. We have a pentagon budget that is way too big. It makes no sense that we have a plan as a country to spend a trillion dollars in the next decade modernizing our Nuclear Weapons infrastructure. What for . Why is that money not being spent on the things that can prepare us for the world we are facing . Why are we not investing more research and development in this country in the development of Artificial Intelligence . The National Institutes of health so we are better prepared to deal with things like a pandemic. It helped us win the cold war. These are the kinds of investments we will have to make. It is Climate Change even as a threat to the climate which it is. The amount of money were spending on that challenge from Climate Mitigation to support for other countries for the development of new technologies that can accelerate our ability to slow global warming, that resource allocation has to shift. So did the personal structure of the u. S. Government, the promotion structure, the experts brought in the last 20 years state the dod and elsewhere, they are focused on terrorism. They are great people and they need to be a part of the answer. There has to be a shift to this other issues that. There comes a fundamental realignment of what the United States ask about National Security and how we build a government to deal with that. I think that is what is required. One of the good things happening we shouldment is recognize its going to take a lot of work to get there. That, we have to also recognize the change in mindset has to take place. One of the things i talk about is a mindset toward government itself. There has been a multidecade itself on the role of government. Government is bad, bureaucrats are bad. We learned and covid, thats who you need. Thats the backstop against all of these threats were going to face. We need to reinvest in the idea of what the government can do for people in this country. And bring more people into serving in government and try to reenergize United States to deal with this new set of challenges that are going to shape our world. At the same time, i think we obviously have to deal with ourselves at home. America is not going to have any credibility in standing to do things in the world we are not seeing if we are not being seen as having our act together. We are not credible and democracy if were going to make it is hard for people to vote. There is a connection with how we get our democracy and order and will do around the world. We are not going to be credible in Climate Change if we dont do something aggressive here at home. Were not going to be credible in the regulation of new technologies and disinformation and Artificial Intelligence if we are doing that at home with Companies Like facebook. Across the board, we have to see that the line between what were doing here and has to go way. These issues are all fundamentally interconnected. Peopleofoundly as young have reminded us the last few are not seen as dealing with our own systemic issues involving race and immigration and how people are treated in this country. We have no moral authority to lead the world. If we are seen as correcting those issues, that gives us a lot of standing to have some authority in the world. All of these things are very much connected. I will end before the to , when i taught at ucla last year i was teaching residential speeches. President ial speeches. We looked at a president a speech that president bush gave. It was very well received at the time. When you read it today, he is calling for nothing less than making americas entire National Purpose a global war on terrorism. He compared terrorists to nazi germany and soviet communism. Reading it now was like reading another language. I understood it, but my students, it was like a document came from another planet. We have to reckon with the fact that we got the response to 9 11 wrong and it is time to move on. The purpose of this country has to be about bigger things than just fighting terrorism. And National Priorities should reflect more the interests of those young people who are the future of this country than we litigated and trying to course correct and do one more search in the middle east to deal with the fact that we got it wrong. It is time to move on. In a strange tragic way, i think this covid moment offers that opportunity if there is a change in presidency bid it goes far beyond the presidency. This has to be embedded in lots of different aspects of american politics, government and society. I look forward to the conversation. Fantastic way to open. At the very end, you talk about the covid moment as being a particular opportunity and obviously the piece itself which i recommend to the viewers, you invert your remarks, you have a anecdote about your daughter at the end of the message comes through. I wanted to get you to expand a little bit on what you think the particular impact of the covid moment is for your argument. In other words, were we already the end of the post9 11 era covid just makes it really clear or did it have a causal impact . Think wes first, i should have been at the end of the 9 11 era about a decade ago. I thought these battles and left the Obama Administration with a lot of stars did with a lot of scars. Covid was already out. The president knew about it. This country came this close to going to war with iraq. That happened in january. It seems like a decade ago. Dont think that thats not a post on 11 more. Post 9 11 war. Getting the Saddam Hussein and thinking that we have to get rid of iranian regime, that to me is a clear indicator. Look at what we talk about with Foreign Policy. Iran, terrorist. We still very much were in the sense that trumps brand of politics is impossible without 9 11. This xenophobic America First mentality is very post9 11. It was very much the case. Probably a favorite to be elected before covid. That has changed. Covid communicated to america the cost of having an incompetent government and an incompetent demagogue as engaged in a not way that can allow you to work with other countries to mitigate this. The other thing i would say quickly is that having looked at the financial crisis, which was aseismic event albeit not big as covid, that transformed Politics Around the world. My basic theory is that that event caused a collapse of confidence around the world particularly in the west and globalization and democracy. All of this nationalism has roots in the financial crisis. It is a backlash to globalization and democracy which people felt had failed. Theres going to be a backlash because of covid. Theicularly because of economic fallout that is going to come from covid. When is that backlash going to hit . A firstnd this is effort in this article by me that i hope everyone will have to think about this, to try to figure that out. Over 35 want to doubt years. What lessons does the world draw from covid and what we do about it . Those are going to be huge issues. Let me focus on two things. Number one is china. Is it your sense that one of the problems with the 9 11 approach you talk about this unyielding focus on terrorism that continued through the Obama Administration to a large degree that it allowed us to take our eye off the real ball which was the fact that china was rising with incredible speed economically, politically, diplomatically, militarily, and now we face a different world and covid might be accelerating that . Is that the single biggest problem with what we did is that now we are not prepared . I am not trying to argue that china is an enemy but it is certainly a competitor or a rival. That we were not sufficiently focused on china as a result. There is no question that is true. When i looked back at the Obama Administration, the things i were thet with us on , the in afghanistan support for the saudi war in yemen. Those are not things that we were faulted for the time. Particularly in the form policy establishment, those were basically status quo policies. It was these other things we were trying to do the principal things that president obama did was to get us out of the middle east so we should focus on asia and china. That was a Strategic Point he was making. The iran deal was very much part of the china strategy which is that we cannot afford to fight a war with these guys. The chinese are catching up and passing us while we are focused country. Tively small it is totally bizarre kid if people look back at this obsession with iran and it makes very little sense that at a time when there was a massive emerging superpower in asia, so much of washington was consumed with this relatively small country. Where the only real issue for our National Security in terms of an existential threat was a nuclear issue. War,nt have to fight that iran can get a nuclear weapon, we will continue to deal with the issues related to the Foreign Policy but china is a much bigger challenge than iran. One anecdote i tell about this is, i remember going to copenhagen for the Climate Change conference develop heart. We get there and the whole conference is in disarray. The reason why is that the europeans were thinking that europe would craft the agreement and americans would come in and we figure out in middle and get everybody on board. The chinese had more in that room than we did. They had the entire block of the rest of the world. I remember flying home with people likeama and to write articles about how china is rising. They already rose. That happened in the first decade of the 21st century. After the financial crisis, they saw we can start flexing our muscles and it is very much the case that while america was focused on the middle east, china was steadily advancing and asserting itself and i dont want to suggest that is all bad. Its natural that a country who was lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty is going to want more influence. Where does that influence lead . T