Balance for the former Vice President and the democrats to be ahead in the polls, but not a convention balance. Does that surprise you . Guest not really. I did not think there would be much of a convention balance, and i did nothing there will be much for President Trump, either. Two reasons why. Biden, i think, is maxed out. This is a very polarized era, and you have a candidate ahead by 8, 8. 5, nine points pulling right now suggests that that that particular candidate, that is biden, has maxed out. He is not going to go any higher. We do not have a capacity for a landslide anymore. In a landslide, you have lots of other people from the other side coming over to vote for you. We are to polarize for that. Democrats are not going to vote for trump, and republicans are not going to vote provided, other than an elite handful, which you see a lot. They write letters, and they write petition, and they are wellknown people who appear on sunday shows, but they dont command hundreds of thousands or millions of votes nothing close to it. And the other reason, steve, is simply because in this particular race, with these Virtual Conventions, Virtual Conventions are not real conventions. They do not convey excitement. I know you have been to tons of them. I started in 1976, with both parties, and have consistently gone. This is the first year ive not gone to a convention but there is no convention to go to. The emotion is not the same. It is a tv series. That is what the democrats had. That is what the republicans are going to. Have this coming week so you do not have the same kind of emotional reaction among the audience. Host the other big story this fall, control of congress. Based on your site, looking at some of the top senate races, and you pointed three in particular iowa, North Carolina, and maine, three states in which republicans hold that seat. Guest yes. Conteare very close sts, if they went to the democrats. You have those and i will, maine, and North Carolina defeated, that i think senator control. Remember, you never know. What seems certain, as we approach labor day, is not necessarily certain by the beginning of november. Host let me ask you about south carolina. A lot of attention was senator graham, the republican, facing a challenge. Some say it is now moving to lean republican versus solid republican. And, boy, there is not a more solid republican state van south carolina. Guest yes, and the democrat, jamie harrison, has been a strong candidate, has done the right thing. Mainly, lindsey graham, a longtime republican from south carolina, has been weakened in many ways. To 2016, he said donald trump was the third cousin of the devil. Now he says he is the greatest thing since string cheese. I do not think donald trump has changed all that much. There was something about the way graham approached donald trump and the dilemma democrats had in 2016 and really the dilemma they have to date your having said that, i think we would all be very, very shocked if graham actually lost. It is one thing to have a race lean your way, it is another thing to have an upset. There is a big difference between having a close and having it go against the incumbent, so we will see. It is possible. Anything is possible. I can see the campaign moving in a way were democrats actually get comfortable, but i could also see it moving in a way where republicans retain, very narrowly, the senate. Is pretty i think, secure for the democrats. Host last week, we talked to someone you know well, former congressman tom davis. He certainly knows virginia politics. He said for the democrats, they want to make that the Personality Campaign for donald trump, but republicans, they want to make this an issueoriented campaign, and they want to get on the right side of the issues. Your thoughts on that, especially as we deal with the coronavirus. Guest well, i think that is partly true, but it is pretty clear that the republicans actually want to make it a personality contest, biden vs. Trump, and they are determined, at their convention enter their advertising, to dirty a biden. Because right now, trump has very high on favorability. Even if people do not agree with his issues, they dont like him. That includes people that are not in his camp. Even a fair amount of republican say, i like the policies, i am glad he is in they are doing x, y, z, but i do not like him. Well, biden has been out of office for four years. By nature, he does not have a lot of sharp edges. It is hard for people to have strong feelings about him one way or another. He benefits from by going against donald trump. Well, the trump people cannot let that continue. They have to drive up biden unfavorable, just like they drove up Hillary Clintons nfavorables for years ago, though tha was a much easier task. She had a longer career in controversy, so there were a lot of things for republicans to cite. They are going to try to do something about it these coming weeks. Host this past week of course, among those speaking very critical of the president , his predecessor, barack obama. [video clip] in the oval sat office with both of the men running for president. [laughs] i never expected that my successor would embrace my vision or continue my policies. I did hope, for the sake of our country, that donald trump might show some interest in taking the job seriously. That he might come to feel the weight of the office and discover some reverence for the democracy that had been placed in his care. But he never did. Close to four years now, he has shown no interest in putting in the work, no interest in finding common ground, no interest in using the awesome power of his office to help anyone but himself and his friends. No interest in treating the presidency as anything but one more reality show that he can use to get the attention he craves. Donald trump has not grown into the job, because he cant. And the consequences of that failure are severe. Dead. 0 americans millions of jobs gone, while those at the top take in more than ever. Unleashed, aulses proud mutation around the world badly diminished, and our Democratic Institutions threatened like never before. Host mr. Sabato, one former obama aide saying that speech was three and a half years in the making. Your reaction to what he said and the tone of the former president. Guest a lot of people have observed in the past few days it really is unprecedented for a former president , meaning a past president , to attack the incumbent president in the very personal way that president obama did. I agree with that. It is unprecedented. Of course it is also unprecedented for a sitting president to come almost on a daily basis, troll his predecessor. Ever seen that. We have not had twitter all that long, and President Trump is the first want to use it for anything other than formal announcements, but almost on a daily basis, you will have tweets attacking president obama and his personal character. So you see the dynamic there. They are both setting precedents, and you can understand why they are. Host in your Electoral College ratings right now, this snapshot, you are predicting the democrats would get 268 electoral votes, the republicans, 204. States thattates, donald trump won in 2016 North Carolina, florida, wisconsin, and arizona. Guest yes. Right now, if the election were held now, or were held on labor day, i think it would be likely that biden would carry arizona. I think florida would be very close, with an edge to biden. North carolina, i still that would go to trump. Wisconsin, as you look at the polls, it is also biden, but the is what itwisconsin is for biden, so as last time, this could be an upset. So that is the point when you look at the polls in the summer. You know that. We have been through this so many times in the years, and one side or the other gets very excited by the good polls in the summer, and they they are shocked when you get past labor day, and suddenly, it is a very tight race. Very occasionally, it goes in the opposite direction, but usually it tightens up at some point in the fall, often not that long after labor day. So, you know, we will see. It is an answer that doesnt satisfy anybody. Everybody wants to tell you a great decision, what is going to happen in november, and the people who do dont know what they are talking about. Host our fine lines are open. Our phone lines are open. 202 7488001, that is our life republicans, and 202 7488000 if you are a democrat. Our line open for text messages. Or you can tweet us cspanwj. Sunny is joining us from long beach, california. Good morning. Caller good morning. I just wanted to make a brief comment. The first comment is about the virus. I am a black american who did vote for donald trump, but i have lost all respect for the republican party. Theres just too many lives. I compared this virus to the tuskegee experiment that was done on black and brown people, way back then. We as americans have to understand that this is not a hoax. Republicanhe convention is concerned, i will not listen to it. I have already made up my mind who i am going to vote for. I will not vote for a man who said that this virus is a hoax. Out here in california, we have people who are dying. We have children who are dying, and now you want us to vote for a man who says it is a hoax . A man who tells us to drink bleach . A man who, his own family says he is out of his mind . No. The biggest mistake i ever made my life was to vote for donald trump, and i will not vote for him. Are very, very happy about this virus. Dont be misled. Very,icans right now are very happy about the fact that they have successfully killed 40,000 to 50,000 black and brown americans in this country. Host larry savitz oh, to his first point, a republican voting for trump in 2016 but not for the president in 2020, what does that tell you . , you have a few percentage points, and this gentleman is in a category, that is republicans who voted, even independents who voted for trump, who will not vote for him again and plan to, primarily, vote for joe biden. The gentleman said that he is , in 2016, only 8 of for President Trump. That is a very low percentage. Most publicans get 10 , 12 , Something Like that. They are operating within a low ceiling and a high floor, i suppose, actually, a high ceiling and a low floor. I do not think that will change very much. It is possible that trump will set a new record low among blacks this year. As far as the virus is concerned, though, it is more complicated than that. Yes, a terrible thing has happened, 175,000 americans having died. Most models have it well over 200,000 by election day. That cannot help trump, democratsy when a is in charge. Now, if President Trump had acted sooner, in january and february, we would have been well along, and if he had done different things, a lockdown, we would be worth some of the European Countries are today, in a much better situation. But it is also true that, for every crisis, we have an opportunity. The opportunity that trump has, which he has been hinting about in quite some time, is that october, not that long before the election, there will be a dramatic announcement of a virus that is both safe and effective and is going to be available at, pick a date, january. It may be true, or maybe cut from whole cloth. You know, that has happened with this white house from time to time. Regardless, if trump can sell that, and he is fundamentally a salesman, then, i think, the conditions are little bit different for november, especially if the announcement has some credibility to it, and it affects the economy not so much the stock market, but the wider economy, so that the economy gets a jolt, a positive jolt of the thought that the pandemic might be ending within months. There i am skeptical that would be such a vaccine, and it would have been tested and proven effective, but i am not in that field. In the vast majority of americans are not in that field, so they are going to be making their judgment, based in part, on what their political leaders tell them. Host let me take that one step further, because we got a tweet from kayleigh mcenany, the White House Press country, there is a News Conference scheduled for 6 00 p. M. Tonight. This is the headline from fox president will reveal a breakthrough therapeutic in the coronavirus. That is coming at 6 00 on the eve of the Republican Convention. Guest that is a difference. That is a therapeutic. He will not stop there. There will be an announcement at some point, and it is very favorable. A series of announcements. Different companies are trying to produce these vaccines. And democrats, privately, will tell you they expect that. They will tell you summer worried about it, others are not, but they understand how this president operates, and they expect that to happen. Now, this therapeutics, i have no idea what it is, and i am not a Public Health anyway, so i cannot tell you whether it is real or not. But the problem with announcing it this soon as it had better work New York Times it had better not be another injected bleach into your body kind of therapeutic, and we will see. Host a tweet from the white house president terry, again, live at 6 00 p. M. Eastern time, assuming that time still holds, we will have it for you here on cspan. Youngstown, ohio, on with larry sabato of uva. Good morning. Caller good morning. I wonder if, during the convention, they will talk about Social Security. In the last two budget cycles, trump proposed cutting Social Security and medicare by 2 million. Now trump says he wants to illuminate payroll taxes, permanently, next year. These are the taxes that fund Social Security and medicare. Depend want to have to on charity or my children and grandchildren to stay alive, when i fade into the system my whole working life. Thank you. Host larry sabato . Guest that was a well put together question. She has done some research on that. Look, you will hear a lot about Social Security, but the vast majority on the democratic side. Again, this is a Standard Practice in democratic campaigns, to talk about the security of Social Security. Is the system secure . Can you count on it . Usually, democrats are saying the publics are trying to cut, they are trying to undercut. Guarantee Social Security with them in charge commanded republicans will try to deny that. Extent that Social Security becomes an issue, it almost always favors democrats, and that reason, republicans will be schlepping other issues and trying to make sure Social Security does not lose to the middle state. Host from miami, florida, and a minute line. Chris, good morning. Caller yeah, good morning. Dr. Sabado, i am disappointed that even cspan does not or has not yet brought up the contrast in policy issues between biden and trump. Three important ones to become as an independent voter, one, biden supports the continuation of sanctuary cities. That is against current federal immigration law. I am against sanctuary cities. Trump is not. Biden is opposed to school choice, which impacts minority people. From newdinal study york shows Charter Schools help minorities immensely. Why would biden be opposed to school twice . Three commander first debate, it was asked do you support Free Health Care for illegals . Biden raised his hands peered i do not support subsidize health care for people who broke the law. Finally, secretary of defense robert gates, under president obama, said that Vice President biden was wrong on every major policy decision. Thank you. Host thanks for the call. Larry sabato . Guest well, look, number one, as a cspan fan, i am going to defend it. If you watch a lot of cspan, sir, i guarantee you, that before november, cspan will carry everything and cover everything twice, three times, four times. Everything can be done by august, so i would not be overly concerned about that. As far as those issues are concerned, you name three issues that do not favor with the large portion of the electorate, do not favor joe biden and would favor donald trump. Be sure reason, you can that whether it is on tv ads or indirect mail some other medium, the republicans will stress those issues. Activists will lead with materials that they get from Republican Leaders over public in emails or that they see on republican tv ads. Is august. It and, democrats will be responding accordingly, because there will be things you cannot keep a tag on, and they will make their positions clear, too. Something i have learned over independent,y obviously of republicanleaning independent, if you look over time, and you watch elections over time, you find that activists people who feel strongly about issues almost unanimously say every election that their issues are not and that isgh, because, if they had their way, that is all we would hear about. [laughs] so you cant win. In many ways, the media cant win, and many times, the candidates and campaigns cannot win. I tell people, be patient. Patience is so underrated. Host we also want to share with our audience, this is what the president said last thursday. He traveled to old forge, pennsylvania, just outside of scranton. Of course scranton is the hold of joe biden. Here is what he had to say. [video clip] pres. Trump i am going to make a speech tonight. It will be very interesting to see how he does peered i hope he does well put i really do. I really hope he does well, but i also hope he does the well. He has got to tell the truth about things, but hopefully not well enough. Now, we are leading a war thats incredible but right now, we are leading in so many polls that they refuse to put out. We are doing so good in this state, in North Carolina, and florida, and texas, and ohio, and michigan. You know how many car plans are being built or expanded in michigan . We are doing fantastically in michigan.