Journal looks at key battleground states with political reporters and analysts on the ground. Focusing on key battleground states, with reporters on the ground, what has changed, what policy issues are motivating this year. And clues about how people might vote in each state in november. Today we turn our attention to the keystone state of pennsylvania, and Franklin MarshallCollege Professor and poster Terry Madonna joins us from harrisburg this morning. Lets begin with what happened in pennsylvania in 2016. 2016, then candidate donald j. Trump carried the state of pennsylvania by 44,000 votes. He won the state because of the turnout and the high proportion of votes that he got in central pennsylvania, and also in the southwestern part of our state, in the old mining and mill towns. I call it small towns and rural pennsylvania, and in the northeastern part of our state, largely because he developed what has generally been referred to as the rustbelt strategy, ofre he campaigned in parts pennsylvania, ohio, wisconsin, and michigan, making the argument that the Obama Administration had done bad tree deals. Nafta, the transpacific partnership. And that he would had done bad tree deals. Nafta, transpacific partnership, and that he would bring back steel. Natural gas. That would bring back coal and steel. Natural gas. That continues to be an important aspect of pennsylvania elections this year, which we can certainly talk about. Now, he just didnt win by these old mining and mill towns by five or 10 or 15 points. Or 20 points, 19 and in a couple of the counties, he won them by 19, 20, lets go , and these are basically white workingclass voters that literally helped trump get to the 44,000 vote edge in the commonwealth of pennsylvania. Is the race shaping up today between the president , the former Vice President joe biden . Guest it is shaping up to be pretty close. The real clear politics average is about 3. 9 , 3. 9 lead for joe biden. It was a couple of points higher weeks ago. If you take all of the battleground the six battleground states that we watch, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, florida, arizona, and North Carolina, as we speak right now, President Trump is trailing in every single one of them. Example,lorida, for biden is leaving less than 2 . In North Carolina it is less than by not it biden is leading less than 2 , in North Carolina is less then 1 . Every one of the six in 2016, biden is leading. The margins right now you know, they range from in wisconsin, about six percentage points. In arizona for biden, about five percentage points. As i said, in pennsylvania, 3. 94 percentage point lead. Trump has to really do something in those battleground states if he wants to win reelection. Showed himolls trailing in 2016 as well, and he was able to eke out a victory within that margin of error. Guest that isnt correct. There isnt any doubt about it that in some of the battleground states, including the fnm pole, the first time in our long f inpole, for the first time our long history that we were not on target, so to speak. In pennsylvania a significant number of voters made up their mind or changed their mind in the last 10 days of the election. We were not doing interviewing in the last 10 days, and that is a significant explanation. There is Something Else that went on and some of the states as well, and the fact of the matter is then trump voters were reluctant to admit, to talk about the fact that they were supporting President Trump, and im sure you have interviewed people who fell into that category. Terry madonna, you said that pennsylvania has always played an Important Role in president ial elections, but you said this year the state is the center of the universe. Why is it playing a bigger role . He has been referring to it, to pennsylvania as the tipping point. What does that mean . It means that whichever candidate wins the states 20 electoral votes, that that will 270them up to the magic electoral votes. That is what that pretty well means. I will tell you something, you cant believe how this state has been inundated by the candidates. By one count, the candidates and their surrogates have been in this state 40 times. President trump was just out in the southwestern part of our state yesterday. He is traveling into the east later on this week. The fact of the matter is that these candidates are all over pennsylvania. Joe bidens headquarters is not in wilmington, delaware, where he lives, but in philadelphia, pennsylvania, to indicate its significance. If you take a look at the number of visits and the attention to candidates are paying to the state and their surrogates, donald trump, jr. Was in the state capital a week ago. Erie. Scheduled to go to Kamala Harris was in the state just recently. I think if they are here any longer, we could give them the right to vote in this state. Host we are talking to Terry Madonna about the battleground state of pennsylvania. We want to get your thoughts on that this morning and we are dividing the lines by the candidates you support. If youre supporting the dial ris ticket, our first call comes from stephanie in huntington, west virginia. Supported joe biden. Good morning to you. Caller i wanted to say that we need to have term limits on all the positions such as the congress and senators. No one should be able to serve over 12 years in congress or the senate. And also, speaking of president s, we need somebody with integrity. Out of the heart, the mouth speaks. We have a president that has spoke so much negative, he has helped divide this country. So in his heart he doesnt have love or justice for all. It is only for a few people, and he thinks he has all must put himself in, i have done this, i have done that. Its not about i, it should be we the people. I think we need someone who will bring us back closer together, and biden will bring us back closer together as a people that love one another and compassion and empathy towards one another. With the Supreme Court, i believe that the Supreme Court should be a representation of all people, not just caucasian people but all people. All people, asians. We are a melting pot of a country, and we need weresenting that we need need it to represent all people. We need to sit together and talk and reason together and come to a conclusion instead of just democrats and republicans. When you people that love one another. Are Terry Madonna, there two issues there, wondering how they play in pennsylvania. The Supreme Court and the president s character. Guest lets talk about the the fact of the matter is that there is a big debate going on about whether the debate over President Trump moving forward with a nominee to the Supreme Court, which he has indicated he will give us a name on saturday. The fact of the matter is that i think it is going to have a on theing effect campaign. What does that mean . I think it is going to help motivate, stimulate, and create more excitement in the face of both parties in the base of both parties. In the base of both parties. Both parties are going to use the issue to try to galvanize their base, their supporters. It is unclear yet whether it is going to move undecided voters one way or another. There are relatively fewer undecided voters this year than in the past, somewhere around 13 , 14 , 15 . I think it is going to help create enthusiasm and excitement. Some think it is going to have sense, infect, in a other words one party will not see an advantage over it. Although some democrats argue that if he appoints a prolife candidate to the Supreme Court that that will cause some moderate republicans to move away from President Trump. We are going to have to wait and see. But more enthusiasm, or excitement in the base for both parties. Host what about the president s character . Guest well, that is obviously an issue, and that is going to continue to play out. The way i view this is, it is not the debate that democrats have with the president over policies. But it is also the president s style and personality, which is very unique. In this age of social media, what he puts on twitter and how he conducts himself, and the public scrutiny of it is remarkably intense. Remember that until modern history, candidates for the presidency did not campaign himself. It was considered unseemly to do that. If you look back through American History and look at the personalities of the other 44 president s, its hard to find someone with the kind of unique personality and style that the president has. So i think a fair amount of the opposition comes from the way that the president conducts on the issuesust that democrats and republicans disagree on. Mayville, in michigan, you are undecided. Why is that . Forer i voted for trump the last election, and i thought he would really do us a lot of good. I was really kind of hoping that everything would start going better, but the last year and a half or so, no. I have to work two jobs in order meet. E ends even though the jobs are there, they are not paying anybody in order to support themselves. So you have to work two or even have three incomes because you have a spouse, in order to make it. In order to pay your taxes and do what youve got to do. I watched his speech last night in pennsylvania. That really did it for me last night. I dont understand why somebody that is supposed to represent our country will stand on a podium and start downing some other woman that is on the Supreme Court that is not may be born here and say that she is not american. I think he needs to look in his own house. His wife was not even born here, but yet he says things about other people. He needs to look in his own backyard. Im not going to vote for him this year. I have changed my mind as of last night. That was horrible last night, and im tired of him Walking Around this country saying there is no virus when there is over 200,000 people dead. He needs to take responsibility for something. China might have started it, but he should be finishing it, and hes not. Host Terry Madonna . There isll, again, this personality and style factor in the way he approaches issues that and events that are very controversial, that the individual just pointed out. There is absolutely no doubt about that. That is at the heart of it. Now, it is important to note that his firm supporters like that style and personality. Obviously you just heard from an undecided voter that it is apparent that that has turned her off, obviously, and that continues to be the case. Covid19, for the longest period of time, was the single most important problem the president had. Early on, just after it broke, it came to our country, the president s Job Performance on handling coronavirus was about 50 positive. Right now, the last time i looked a day or two ago in real clear politics, it was about 41 positive. That is incredibly important. The guest talked about the economy, and that, believe it or not, is donald j. Trumps strongest suit. Again, on the real clear politics average, he is at 50 positive on the economy and continues to stress that in speech after speech after speech, where he gets up and talks about the economy before covid19. Thatlks about the recovery is taking place right now, and he argues, for example, that in the Third Quarter there will even be fewer people unemployed, employmente on compensation, and that gdp growth will go up. And so he is going to continue to stress the economy, the economy, the economy. Again, we are going to have to find out if two other things emerge in the last couple of weeks how relevant they are. And that is unrest, obviously important. Trump has been criticizing democratic mayors and democratic governors that they are not doing enough to put down the burning and the looting and the violence taking place. The democrats are certainly concerned about that. At the democratic convention, they did not mention the civil unrest. Joe biden didnt in his acceptance speech, but about 10 days or so ago, he was in Allegheny County in my state and made it a point to condemn the violence, the writing, the burning and the looting. The rioting, the burning, and the looting. At the same speech, he repeated several times, i do not want to ban fracking. He is opposed to it on federal lands, and that has great appeal because to the base of donald mining and mill towns in pennsylvania and the other battleground states. Host here is politicos recent michigan, minnesota, and wisconsin will decide the election. We will have to wait on them in 2020 do you agree and why . What we are talking about with the states that politico mentioned is that they are states that trump won. We could throw florida in there, which is very close. Florida has 29 electoral votes, pennsylvania has 20. That is 49 electoral votes. Have the states largest number of electoral votes, but i dont necessarily disagree with that. I think if the president loses two or three battleground states, that i have been talking about, i dont know how he can get to 270. It is going to be virtually impossible for him to do that. Host politico argues huge surges in voting will change how theseen in 2020, and in three states we might none know the winner on election night. Guest that is a great point, and there is a big controversy over mailin ballots. I think all of your viewers know the president has referred to it as fraud, fraud, fraud, fraud, and makes the point that republicans should vote in person. By the way, in the polls i have seen, more republicans say they will vote in person than democrats. There is not any doubt that mailin voting benefits the democrats more than it does the republicans. Lets take a look at the point you just made about when we are going to have the results. In pennsylvania, in pennsylvania if a ballot is postmarked by november 3, currently and this is under challenge three days the balance can be the ballots can be counted three days after november 3, on the friday of election week. So you are exactly right about this. We may not know who won the president ial election. Some say days, some say weeks, some say months. Onre is not any doubt that november 3 we are not going to know who won the president ial election. There is a big debate, as i indicated a moment ago, over whether these ballots will be served. On pennsylvania, the june 2 , 1. 5 million pennsylvanians cast male in her absentee ballots. 1. 5 million, almost half of the total turnout in the state of pennsylvania. Most of us believe that that by november 3. Election officials in the state are hiring personnel. Like to openwould the ballots and sort them and run them through the scanners before november 3 so that we dont have this long wait that we can expect. Again, in pennsylvania, there are elections on june 2, the primary. They were not fully certified for two weeks, for two weeks. So who knows what is likely to happen . Many folks think it could be sometime before we have the results for these states. Host gary in young would, pennsylvania. Hi, gary. Caller thank you for cspan. Go ahead, gary. We are listening to you. Caller i am in southwestern pennsylvania, and im surrounded older much by democrats, White Catholic democrats, been voting this way for a very long time. It is going to be interesting to see how the Supreme Court nomination and if it goes through the same process as kavanaugh to how it is going to upset a lot of these longtime democrat voters. Hillary sides and were up, it was about 7numeral three for hillary. What i am seeing now it was about 73 for hillary. What i am seeing now, it is about 73 for trump over biden. It is getting ugly. It is getting tribal, really. When you look at some of the Energy Stocks in the energy sector, even some of the africanamericans will pick up 15 of pittsburgh, which is like area,mocrat turnout this , to 10 of the population democratic is 85 voting wise. Are the democrats going to vote against their financial interests . Interesting to see. Thank you. Waiting for your comments. Host Terry Madonna. Guest he makes a good point. If you go into the southwest with these workingclass families, as i indicated before, it is they overwhelmingly supported trump. Here is what is fascinating about it. We go out there and take a look andreen and washington washed Moreland West moreland and fayette. The fact of the matter is, every single one of those counties in 2016 had a democratic Voter Registration edge over the republicans. Let that sink in a minute. Every single one of them, and trump carry those counties again, not by five or 10 or 15 points, but by 19, 20, 30 in those cases because of the rust argument that i mentioned earlier. That trump would bring back coal and steel in the old industries, get rid of the bad treat deals, etc. The fact of the matter is that that is critical in 2020 for trump to win the election. Basically, the working class voter began to move away from the democrats for a variety of reasons. Those voters out there tend to be cultural conservatives on issues like abortion and gay marriage and gay rights, whereas the democratic race in the state and in the suburbs tend to be cultural liberals. Also, many urban democrats, suburban democrats, want gun control. The voters in the region, we are talking about, dont touch the second amendment. And we have climate change, which is a big issue for Many Democrats in urban and suburban america. Of the we know out southwest . What about fracking . Deep wells in which natural gas is extracted from. So you do have some huge differences between rural and smalltown democrats on the one hand and urban and suburban democrats on the other hand. In lansdowne, pennsylvania, you are next. Caller good morning. You know, im voting for biden and harris. I have been a supporter of biden for many years i have been following him. Im just so hurt and saddened in my heart about