Suzanne it is a pleasure to welcome you all here to do to our conversation on Foreign Policy and the u. S. President ial election. This event is part of the brookings policy 2020 series which seeks to empower voters ,ith factbased, datadriven nonpartisan information to better understand the policy matters discussed by candidates running for office this year. Thank you all for joining us. We are 29 days away from november 3. Americans will cast their ballots for the next president , but the future of americas global role is also at the ballot. Election,ward the todays conversation will focus in particular on its implications for the transatlantic relationship and u. S. Foreign policy toward europe. Many of leaders and their counterparts around the world are watching the election closely. While there are differing views about how the upcoming november election will shape the relationship, few in europe or it will revert to its previous form. The europeanfrom council on Foreign Relations on european views of the relationship, it shows that france and germany see the need to prepare for a longterm disengagement from the u. S. Regardless of the outcome of the election. The polling also find that irrespective of the results, no e. U. Member states seek to position europe as a third power china. The u. S. And todays discussion will assess the stakes of the election and its implication for u. S. Foreign policy. I am delighted to be joined by an outstanding panel of experts who will offer insights and analysis over what we can expect from either a second trump term presidency. They will also consider how a geopolitical europe would react to either scenario. Before we dive into the conversation, i would like to take a moment to thank the turkish business and industry association, for their support and collaboration which has possible. E this event and we are thankful for the renewed support of our center on the u. S. And europe, and we look forward to continuing our successful partnership. As always, an ironclad commitment to independence is at the center of brookings policies and values, and the views expressed here are solely those of the speakers. Once again, thank you for joining us this morning. Now over to thomas wright. Much forhank you so that introduction, and thank you for all of you for joining us online this morning. When we first devised this Panel Concept a few weeks ago, we thought it would be an eventful october with lots of things to discuss. I dont think any of us could have envisaged the circumstances in which we find ourselves this morning. So that talk about the lications the implications of the election and Foreign Policy in general we are happy to be joined by our colleagues from brookings. I will briefly introduce them although i am sure they are all known to you. First, william gholston. Ston. Lliam gal immense work on the election on u. S. Politics and the commission to politics. Hill, and of course, formerly the senior director for europe and russia at the white house during the trump celin,tration, and celia belin, a visiting fellow in the center for the u. S. And europe in Foreign Policy and authored a book earlier this year in france on the views of the Democratic Candidates for president. So, welcome all and thanks for joining us this morning. We will talk for about 45, 50 minutes, and then well throw it open for questions, which you can relay in twitter. So i guess my first question is really on the news of the day, which well start of course our best wishes by the president and to all of those affected by this outbreak and hoping for a speedy recovery. I wanted to start with you. It seems there is really no precedent for an event or Development Like this, certainly so close to an election. It really creates additional uncertainty. Its also a global event as well, talking about the commanderinchief of the United States. There is lots of things that can happen on the International Scene over the next four weeks, particularly a president who is impaired or capacity did incapacitated in the next four weeks. So, we really have everything coming into the mix, National Security, politics, personalities. I was wondering if you could give us your first sort of impressions of the gravity of this moment, maybe some way to think about it and also, how its likely to feed into the election on november 3. Well, tom, your question anticipates my answer. It is all of the above and more. I think the general sense in the areed states is that we piling one disruptive event on top of another. If this had happened against a calm backdrop, it would have been one thing, but for it to happen while the rubble was still bouncing from the tumultuous president ial debate oft week, while threats interference with the u. S. Election and recount of the ballots are in play, because the president of the United States has put them there, plus, of course, the actual situation on the ground with the pandemic not under control, with the economy and the economic recovery appearing to slow and perhaps in danger of stalling altogether, with racial conflict and partisan polarization, this is an unprecedented situation. Enough, i was an adult in 1968, and i long said that 1968 was the worst year in american politics and society ins the end of the civil war. I am in the process of revising judgment. It may well be that the year were enduring is, in fact, the worst since the civil war. With regard to the election itself, this is at the very least, a serious problem for the Trump Campaign to be added to the roster of serious problems, including a decline in Public Opinion polls that it was already facing in the following direct sense. The game plan was that President Trump would barnstorm around the country in the last month of the campaign. He is widely viewed as his campaigns most important asset to be deployed. The trump rallies are famous for their raucous enthusiasm which appears to have ripple effects through the portion of the electorate that is inclined to vote for mr. Trump, and it appears that for a substantial period of time, would i say at least the next 10 days, the Trump Campaign will not be able to play its high card. Which will impede his prospects of coming from behind to catch joe biden at the wire of this race. Thomas thank you. Thanks, bill. Fiona, if i could turn to you next. I mean, you worked with many of the people who are currently serving in the white house. I was going through a media end. Rts over the week if not a general sense of chaos, just basically of uncertainty and concern and concern about the continuity of government and in some controversy around the chief of staff mark meadows, who i know came off your time there. But i was wondering if you could maybe give us your cause that is thoughts about how this is by thexperienced officials who worked on u. S. Policy. What impact is the president s illness likely to have on u. S. National security, and any other reflections you have on these latest developments. Fiona well, i think what were seeing here is a. This really fits into what, you know, what bill has already highly personalized presidency. This really fits into what, you know, what bill has already said. And i think were in a very unusual time when, you know, President Trump has vocally, publicly and frequently stressed that he is the only person that matters in the system. And it would be very interesting to hear from, you know, bill again as we go around, im sure there will be questions about this, not just about the continuity of government, but about the whole delegation of authority in the case of incapacitation. Obviously, weve had that before in the past. But this is an administration in which the president doesnt like to delegate down authority. As i learned in the time that i think it came out clearly in the end of the testimonies last reallyobody delegates with potential authority to carry out the business of the state. You know, it can easily be undermined, a tweet, anything you say. Theres a question about whether anything anybody else in the system says really matters. Just in short, it makes it difficult for everybody else to go about their jobs. Theres little confidence on the part of i would say the routine domestic issues, but certainly you asked about National Security that people can press ahead with anything. We just recently saw that National Security advisor bryan has gone off to meet with his counterparts from russia, the equivalent of the National Security council in geneva. Obviously, we did that many times when i was in the National Security council. Even then, at that particular set of junctures, which was much earlier on in the term, the russians and others were always questioning how authoritative were our interactions . With armslong negotiations that seems to have hit a crucial period, but in the months since the election, how can they really press ahead on some of the Critical Issues, that, you know, like bill is suggesting, that require calmer atmosphere . Its very hard to make breakthroughs on Critical Issues like arms, which are very , andtive and detailed complex negotiations that are technical, when you have chaos and uncertainty. As bill was talking about in the just a metaphor also for National Security, it is very hard for anyone whos under these circumstances to get on with their jobs when its not clear how much authority that they actually have. Thomas thank you. Celia, this is really the latest development not just in u. S. Politics for the rest of the world, but also in the handling of the coronavirus. How is it being interpreted in france and in europe and what sort of the main lens through which they see the United States at the moment . Celia sorry, youre on mute. ,celia thank you, tom. Force of habit. Of course europeans are looking with great interest to whats happening to President Trump at the moment. Great interest, great concern, i must say. All the leaders have sent their sentiment of support, of concern for the president and his family. Of course, obviously, from the public or the media, you had some sarcastic comments as its wellknown that President Trump himself had adopted a position of doubt, lets say, regarding this virus. So you had some coverage on this in the media in europe, in france, and in germany and the u. K. Obviously over the weekend. Ways, it sort of reinforces this european idea that whats going on in the u. S. Is that you have a country that is adrift just a month out of the president ial election, that the pandemic is not under control, that the tensions, political tensions are extremely high, as bill said, you have crisis on top of each other. There is a strong feeling since the beginning of the pandemic, or lets say two months into it, that the u. S. Is not handling the crisis very there was a poll well. Well. There was a poll from the Pew Research Center mid september that showed that europeans considered when they were asked, who has done a good job in dealing with covid, they were given pretty good marks for the eu, around 50 , 60 . Even more for their own country, around 60 or 70 . And quite high marks for china, around 40 . But the u. S. Notes mark, was abysmal, around 10 to 15 in some of the main European Countries, considering only 10 or 15 of people considered that the u. S. Was doing a good job dealing with covid. So really, what this ultimate crisis would do was just reinforce this image and at the same time, the europeans own sense of isolation. Who else than the u. S. Can be their ally in dealing with this pandemic . And at the moment, the giant, the american giant is missing , and its leadership is missing. Now more than ever, you know, the president ial leadership is missing as well. So, i was just thinking, listening to bill and to fiona, that the only thing really missing from this confluence of crisis is an international crisis, and hopefully, you know, the u. S. Wont face that, but that would be a very weak moment, very hard moment for the u. S. At a time when power is concentrated around the president , and the president is or could be incapacitated. At least its a worrying thought also for europeans. Thomas celia, i just to follow up, i know the Prime MinisterBoris Johnson got the coronavirus. Have there been any incidences highprofile incidences of politicians in france . Contracting it . Celia there are two politicians that died from it. Another whoe, and was a president of the Regional Council and then another important figure of the socialist party who died also from covid early on in the process. And then quite a few members of cabinet have been sick. Remembernt that are or were as sick as Boris Johnson. So its never felt as close to a crisis of leadership as it was in the u. K. As in the u. S. Of course, there was sort of a sense of relief that we have a young president at the moment. Its a little bit of just luck, but especially at the height of the epidemic in april and may, i think it was sort of a comforting sentiment for some french. Im sure it is extremely troubling to have the highest function in the land being hit to this degree. I just realized that i dont think europeans feel it as much as americans do. Ive seen the coverage in the media here, it is extremely dramatic. I dont think it has quite hit here just yet. Thomas bill, i just had one followup for you and its really to do with the mechanics of the election. So i mean, theres lots of different scenarios could happen over the next few weeks. President trump could be back up and campaigning, potentially on the other hand, he could be quite sick. All of that could have an impact on the election. . Ho knows if he has to withdraw from the race. My question is, is the u. S. Electoral system sort of of set up adequately to deal with the spectrum of possibility and when people go to the polls on november 3rd, i mean, in this respect at least if not the other respects of the normal, you know, issues that weve talked about before this weekend, is that likely to go smoothly . Or could we be facing a constitutional crisis, you know, with uncertainty about both the election and then the post election period. William thats a very large question, and let me try to subdivide it for purposes of clarity. The president s ability to get back on the campaign trail will be dictated to some extent by health considerations. But as we saw yesterday, this is a president determined to an aura of strengths and invulnerability. We have good reason to believe that he will go to considerable, if not extraordinary lengths to do that and i expect that to continue. So, unless he is really so ill that he must be confined to bed, his bed in the hospital, for an extended period, i would expect him to get back on the campaign trail, even against the advice of his doctors. This is just a speculation, but i think its consistent with his character and conduct over a long period of time. Question number two, what would happen if he became so ill that he were, in effect, forced to withdraw as the president ial candidate . Here theres no ambiguity. Both the Republican Party and for that matter the Democratic Party, both have in place very clear legal mechanisms for replacing a national candidate, either the president or the vicepresident , in emergency circumstances. And i do not expect that to become a subject of contestation. We also have clear legal and constitutional processes for temporarily transferring power from the president to the vicepresident or people lower down in the chain of succession , if that were to become necessary. The question that is most ponder pondered is to do with the conduct of the election itself and the aftermath on election day. The president in the past has indicated that he distinguishes very sharply between the returns that are announced on the night of the election and the returns come in and are counted and announced after that. That could be a serious point of contestation and disruption because a record share of the votes in 2020 will be cast by mail. Many of those mailin ballots will not be counted in time to be reported on election night. So as a legal matter, i think, the situation is clear. Those ballots, to the extent they are not invalidated because of technical violations by individual voters, will be counted. Whether the president will accept the count is a different question. That will be a political question, not a legal question. I am a member of a number of organizations that have worked through a series of disaster scenarios. Of scenario like a nuclear meltdown, to which one attaches a small probability, but if came to pass, would be catastrophic. Crime does not permit me to go through all of those scenarios time does not permit me to go through all of those scenarios. Suffice it to say, both Political Parties have reviewed those scenarios in detail and it is within the realm of metaphysical possibility that one or more states would send competing slates of electors to participate in the final formal president ial selection process. If that were to happen, all bets are off. Thomas ok, well, seeming we get through all that. [laughter] president nd up with a in relatively quick order after the election, i would like to turn now to the two sort of obvious scenarios for next year, if trump is reelected or biden is elected, to ask you all to go through what that would mean for international politics, but also particularly for the transatlantic relationship. Lets start with trump. To be he is less likely reelected according to all the data, but it is a possibility, obviously. As we found out last time. Lets assume that he is reelected. Fiona, if i could start with you, you worked in the white house, and i know youve been thinking about this a bit. I know, weve talked about it separately, but it seems to me that theres sort of two different broad scenario