From novemberays 3. Americans will cast their ballots for the next president , but the future of americas global role is on the ballot today. Looking toward the election, todays panel will focus on issues for the transatlantic relationship and u. S. Foreign policy. Along with many counterparts are watching the election closely. While there are furring views how november will shape the transatlantic relationship, few in europe believe it will revert to its previous form. Revert to its previous form. Recent polling from the council on Foreign Relations on european views of the transatlant transatlantic relationship show that france and germany look at this regardless of the outcome of the relationships. A and todays discussion will discuss the stakes of the election and the discussions for u. S. Foreign policy. Im glad to be joined by those experts for insights and analysis for a second trump term or a biden president. And consider how a geopolitical europe would react to either scenario. Before we dive into the conversation id like to take a moment to thank the turkish business industry and association for support and collaboration to help to make this event possible. We are grateful for the u. S. And europe and look forward to continuing our Successful Partnership with them. And as always, an iron clad commitment to independence is at the center of brookings institutions policies and values and the views expressed today here are solely those of the speakers. Once again, thank you all for joining us this morning and now over to tom wright director for the center on u. S. And europe. Suzanne, thank you so much and for that introduction and thank you all for joining us online this morning. When we first devised this Panel Concept a few weeks ago, i thought it would be we thought it would be an eventful october with lots of things to discuss, i dont think any of us could have quite envisioned the circumstances in which we find ourselves this morning. And so the talk about that and the broader sort of implications of the election have the relations and Foreign Policy in general, were fortunate to be joined by a terrific panel of my colleagues from brookings. So ill briefly introduce them, although im sure theyre all known to you. First bill olson, the editor and chair and senior fellow on governance study. And has done immense work on the election and u. S. Politics with the connection to Foreign Policy, americas role in the world. Fiona hill, my colleague at the center for the United States and europe, senior fellow of Foreign Policy and formerly the senior director for europe and russia in the white house during the Trump Administration, and, a visiting fellow in the center for the u. S. And europe in Foreign Policy and authored a book earlier this year in france on the views of the Democratic Candidates for president. So, welcome all and thanks for joining us this morning. We will talk for about 45, 50 minutes, and then well throw it open for questions, which you can relay in twitter. So i guess my first question is really on the news of the day, which well start of course our best wishes by the president and to all of those affected by this outbreak and hoping for a speedy recovery. I wanted to start with you. I mean, it seems theres really no precedent for an event or Development Like this, certainly so close to an election, that really creates additional uncertainty. Also a global event, of course, because were talking about the commanderinchief of the United States, and theres lots ever things that could happen on the International Scene over the next four weeks, and beyond, particularly if the president is impaired or incapacitated in any way. So, we really have everything coming into the mix, National Security, politics, personalities. I was wondering if you could give us your first sort of impressions of the gravity of this moment, maybe some way to think about it and also, how its likely to feed into the election on november 3rd. Well, tom, your question anticipates my answer. It is all of the above and more. I think the general sense in the United States is that we are piling one disruptive event on top of another. If this had happened against a calm backdrop it would have been one thing, but for it to happen while the rubble was still bouncing from the tumultuous President Trump debate last week, while threats of interference with the u. S. Election and count of the ballots are in play because the president of the United States has put them there, plus, of course, the actual situation on the ground with the pandemic not under control, with the economy and the economic recovery appearing to slow and perhaps in danger of stalling altogether, with racial conflict and partisan polarization, this is an unprecedented situation. I am plenty old enough i was an adult in 1968 and i have long said that 1968 was the worst year in american politics and Society Since the end of the civil war. Im in the process of revising that judgment. It may well be that the year were enduring is, in fact, the worst since the civil war. With regard to the election itself, this is at the very least, a serious problem for the Trump Campaign to be added to the roster of serious problems, including a decline in Public Opinion polls that it was already facing in the following direct sense. The game plan was that President Trump would barnstorm around the country in the last month of the campaign. He is widely viewed as his campaigns most important asset to be deployed. The trump rallies are famous for their raucous enthusiasm which appears to have ripple effects through the portion of the electorate that is inclined to vote for mr. Trump, and it appears that for a substantial period of time, would i say at least the next 10 days, the Trump Campaign will not be able to play its high card. And which will impede his prospects of coming from behind to catch joe biden at the wire of this race. Thank you. Thanks, bill. Fiona, if i could turn to you next. I mean, you worked with many of the people who are currently serving in the white house. I was going through a media report over the weekend just off if not a general sense of chaos, just basically of uncertainty and concern and concern about the continuity of government and in some controversy around the chief of staff mark meadows who i know came off your time there. But i was wondering if you could maybe give us your cause that is experienced by officials working and the illness of the president on the National Security and your reflections on the latest developments. Well, i think what were seeing here is a hyperpersonalized presidency and this really fits into what, you know, what bill has already said. And i think were in a very unusual time when, you know, President Trump has vocally, publicly and frequently stressed that he is the only person that matters in the system. And it would be very interesting to hear from, you know, bill again as we go around, im sure there will be questions about this, not just about the continuity of government, but about the whole delegation of authority in the case of incapacitation, obviously, weve had that before in the past. But this is an administration in which the president doesnt like to delegate down authority. As i learned in the time that i was there, i think this came out very clearly in the testimony this time last year, nobodys really delegate with potentially authority to carry out the business of the state. You know, it can easily be underminded, a tweet, anything you say. Theres a question about whether anything anybody else in the system says really matters so i think, just in short it makes it difficult for everybody else to go about their jobs. Theres little confidence on the part of i would say the routine domestic issues, but certainly you asked about National Security that people can press ahead with anything. We just recently saw that National Security advisor bryan has gone off to meet with his counterparts from russia, the equivalent of the National Security council in geneva. We did that many times when i was there in the National Security council and even then that particular set of junk tu turs jung and the russians, it seemed to hit a crucial period, but in the months since the hee lex with great uncertainty whats going to happen. How can they really press ahead on some of the Critical Issues, that, you know, like bill is suggesting, that require calmer atmosphere, you know, its very hard to make breakthroughs on Critical Issues like arms, very sensitive and detailed and complex negotiations that are also very technical when you have chaos and uncertainty. As bill was talking about in the domestic front, also for our National Security, its very hard for anyone whos under these circumstances to get on with their jobs when its not clear how much authority that they actually have. Thank you. This is really the latest, you know, development not just in u. S. Politics for the rest of the world, but also in the handling of the coronavirus, how is it being interpreted in france and in europe and what sort of the main lens through which they see the United States . Youre on, sorry, youre on mute. Thank you, tom. Force of habit. Of course europeans are looking with great interest to whats happening to President Trump at the moment. Great interest, great concern, i must say. All the leaders have sent their sentiment of support, of concern for the president and his family and of course, obviously, from the public or the media, you had some sarcastic comments as its wellknown that President Trump himself had adopted a position of doubt, lets assay, regarding this virus and so you had some coverage on this in the media in europe, in france, and in germany and the u. K. Obviously over the weekend. But in many ways it sort of reinforces this precept european idea whats going on in the u. S. Is that you have a country that is adrift just a month out of the president ial election, that the pandemic is not under control. The tensions, political tensions are extremely high, as bill said, you have crisis on top of each other. And there is a strong feeling since the beginning of this pandemic, or lets say, two months into it that the u. S. Is not handling the crisis very well. There was a poll from the Pew Research Center mid september that showed that europeans considered when they were asked, who has done a good job in dealing with covid, they were given pretty good marks for the eu around 50, 60 . And even more for their own country, around 60 or 70 . And quite high marks for china, around 40 , but the u. S. Notes, mark, was abysmal, 10 to 15 in some of the main European Countries considering that only 10 or 15 of people considered that the u. S. Was doing a good job dealing with covid. So really, what this ultimate crisis would do was just reinforce this image and at the same time, the europeans own sense of isolation, who else than the u. S. Can be their ally in dealing with this pandemic. And at the moment, the giant, the american giant is missing and its leadership is missing and now more than ever, you know, the president ial leadership is missing as well. So, i was just thinking, listening to bill and to fiona, that the only thing really missing from this confluence of crisis is an international crisis, and hopefully, you know, theres the u. S. Wont face that, but that would be a very weak moment, very hard moment for the u. S. At a time when power is concentrated around the president is or could be incapacitated. At least its a worrying thought even and also for europeans. Celia, i just to follow up, i know the Prime MinisterBoris Johnson got the coronavirus. Have there been any incidences of politicians in france . There are two politicians that died from it, one in office and one that wasnt who was a president of the Regional Council and then another important figure of the socialist party, hebert, who died, also, from covid early on in the process, but and then quite a few members of cabinets have been sick. Nobody yet sick that i know of, can remember as sick as Boris Johnson. So its never felt as close to a crisis of leadership as it was in the u. K. Or is is going on in the u. S. And of course, there was sort of a sense of relief that we have a young president at the moment. Its a little bit of just luck, but there was especially at the height of the epidemic in april and may, i think its the sentiment for some french. But im sure it is extremely troubling to have the highest function in the land being hit to this degree and i just realized that i dont think europeans feel it as much as americans do. Ive seen the coverage in the media here, it is extremely dramatic. I dont think it has just yet. Okay. Bill, i just had one followup for you and its really to do with the mechanics of the election. So i mean, theres lots of different scenarios could happen over the next few weeks. President trump could be back up and campaigning, potentially on the other hand, he could be quite sick. All of that could have an impact on the election. You know, people if he has to withdraw from the race or who knows. But my question is, is the u. S. Electoral system sort of of set up adequately to deal with the spectrum of possibility and when people go to the polls on november 3rd, i mean, in this respect at least if not the other respects of the normal, you know, issues that weve talked about before this weekend, is that likely to go smoothly . Or could we be facing a constitutional crisis, you know, with uncertainty about both the election and then the post election period. Thats a very large question, tom and let me try to subdivide it for purposes of clarity. The president s ability to get back on the campaign trail will be dictated to some extent by health considerations. But as we saw yesterday, this is a president determined to project an aura of strengths and invulnerability. And we have good reason to believe that he will go to considerable, if not extraordinary lengths to do that and i expect that to continue. So, unless he is really so ill that he must be confined to bed, his bed in the hospital, for an extended period, i would expect him to get back on the campaign trail, even against the advice of his doctors. This is just a speculation, but i think its consistent with his character and conduct over a long period of time. Question number two, what would happen if he became so ill that he were in effect forced to withdraw as the president ial candidate . Here theres no ambiguity. Both the Republican Party and for that matter the Democratic Party, both have in place very clear legal mechanisms for replacing a national candidate, either the president or the vicepresident in emergency circumstances. And i do not expect that to become a subject of contesttation. We also have clear legal and constitutional processes for temporarily transferring power from the president to the vicepresident or people lower down in the chain of succession if that were to become necessary. So the the question that is mo most is to do with the conduct of the election itself and the aftermath on election day. The president in the past has indicated that he distinguishes very sharply between the returns that are announced on the night of the election and the returns that are come in and are counted and announced after that. That could be a serious point of contesttation and disruption because a record share of the votes in 2020 will be cast by mail and many of those mailin ballots will not be counted in time to be reported on election night. So, as a legal matter, i think, the situation is clear, those ballots to the extent that theyre not involume dated because of technical violations by individual voters, will be counted. Whether the president will accept the count is a different question i dont think thats thats going to be a political question, not a legal question. I am a member of a number of organizations that have worked through a series of disaster scenarios, the sort of scenario like a Nuclear Meltdown to which one attaches a small probability, but which, if came to pass, would be absolutely catastrophic. Time does not permit me to go through all of those scenarios. Suffice it to say that both of those Political Parties have reviewed those scenarios in detail and it is within the realm of metaphysical possibility that one or more states would send competing slates of electors to participate in the final formal president ial selection process. If that were to happen, all bets are off. Okay, well, seeming we get through all that. [laughter]. That we do end up with a president in relatively quick order after the election, id like to turn now to the two sort of obvious scenarios for next year. Trump is reelected or biden is elected and to ask you all to sort of paint through what that would mean for international politics, but particularly for the transatlantic relationship. Lets start with trump and sort of i know hes less likely, according to pretty much all of the data, there would be reelected, but it is a possibility, obviously, and find out last time. Lets assume that he is reelected. Fiona if i could start with you, if you could work in the white house, and i know youve been thinking about this a bit. And i know, weve talked about it separately, but it seems to me that t