My name is dan, chairman of the American EnterpriseInstitute Board of trustees. It is my pleasure to welcome you to the urban lecture it summit, featuring nicholas eberstadt. Tok holds that henry went chair in political economy at aei he is being honored with this years award and is one of aeis and americas great intellectuals. At this moment in our nations will pointcks work a way forward for our country and offer a vision for how to revitalize our nation in a postpandemic world. Nicks scholarship and all aei histori navigateders historic challenges. Meets wellpositioned to challenges headon by supplying the visionary thinking and actionable policy solutions that our nation needs. Aei scholars will promote free people and free markets, increased economic and social mobility, revitalize constitutional order, bolster american civil life, and promote americas leadership in the world. On behalf of all of us at aei, thank you for your support that makes our vital work possible. In the spirit of Irving Kristol, who loved his country and believed in the power of ideas, i know that together we can build an even stronger, more resilient, and more prosperous america for our generation and those to come. Thank you, dan. Good afternoon, everyone. I am speaking to you live from aei headquarters in washington, d. C. On behalf of the entire aei Community Welcome to our annual Irving Kristol award lecture. We would like to thank all of our generous friends who supported this years event including the chevron corporation, exxon mobil, liberty mutual, and the peter g. Peterson foundation. All of us i could not be happier to honor our dear friend and esteemed colleague the henry chair and political economy doctor nicholas eberstadt. In the four decade since nick first came to us, he and aei have grown together in so many ways the access they did a five nick has influenced and shaped the institutes work and today the excellent, the breadth and community of his work stand as great reflections of her most dearly held values. The Irving Kristol award its highest honor given by aei. We named this award in honor of Irving Kristol because he believed in the endurance of American Values and the Eventual Success of the american experiment. Irving was an intellectual anchor of the conservative community. He advised president s and men toward a generation of young conservatives. He was also an optimist who defended the ideas that are at the heart of aei. Human dignity, free enterprise, order, liberty for all. Back in the darkest days of the cold war, irving was still a young publisher. His magazines were barely profitable. And with much of the world under the iron grip of communism and the soviet union and china it wouldve been hard to see how irving could play a major role in the fight for free enterprise. And yet, armed with these little magazines, he never lost hope. A Firm Believer in the power of ideas, irving was steadfast in his conviction that with a circulation of a few hundred, you could change the world. Today, our values are under attack. That is true. But like irving, i am an who optimist who believes that aeis ideas provide the roadmap for a confident, humane, and flourishing america. These ideas will not only endure, they will prevail. One reason for my confidence is todays honoree. Since joining aei, nick has been one of our most productive and influential scholars. He has changed how we think about issues as diverse as poverty, world hunger, global health, and the security challenges of the korean peninsula. Nick has been here so long it sometimes feels like hes been here his entire life but thats not true and i have proof. Here in the upper lefthand corner is a young nick lighting lining up with his Football Team at the Buckley School in new york. I dont know about all of you, but it gives me some joy to know that before nick turned his turn his attention for nick turned his attention before nick turned his attention to the great issues of our time, he spent a little time on the gridiron blocking and tackling and maybe even throwing a forward pass. And here, looking especially dashing, is nicks senior picture from exeter. The records tell us that nick was, not surprisingly, Student Council president , president of the Economics Club and the winner of the highest award in german and history. Sadly, he didnt continue his football exploits. Nick is a scholar with a moral compass. He is a demographer who never forgot that demography is not the study of human population. It is the study of human people and that has been the driving force of his careers work. Over the years, nick has had little time for those who dismiss the innate human inclinations of freedom. Instead, he has defended with both academic and moral clarity values. His work is imbued with a deeply self concern for the wellbeing of the most needy among us. In the 1990s, nick became a strong critic of chinas one child policy. Not only because he felt it was bad for chinas economy and politics, but because it was morally wrong. This speaks to a deeper courage that underlines all of nicks work. Nick has never been afraid to defy conventional wisdom. Leads to the conclusion that nick has found no fight too daunting. His intellectual rigor example files the very best qualities of our institute. Nick has always said that people are our greatest assets. And if thats true, Nick Eberstadt is aeis greatest asset. He is an ideal colleague, gracious and understanding. Nick is also an extraordinary mentor. He has cultivated an entire generation of scholars to carry on our important work. In that tradition following his lecture, we will be having a Panel Discussion on a new volume that compiles advice for the next president ial administration through several of our scholars. Nick has written a chapter for the book with the title, restoring americas promise. As many of you know, we have often given this award to Prime Ministers, Supreme Court justice, spiritual leaders as well as public intellectuals. And from time to time, we are lucky to be able to recognize one of our most exceptional scholars. So this is the part of the program where im supposed to puff out my chest and Say Something about how proud i am to present the Irving Kristol award to nick. But i have a better idea. A much better idea. Lets let the people who afford closestave work look over the years do the honors. The American Enterprise institute has honored itself and its ideals are presenting the Irving Kristol award to nicholas eberstadt. Nick is joining an aei pantheon that includes Ronald Reagan, bernard lewis, thomas soul, michael novak, jeane kirkpatrick, antonin scalia, charles murray, clarence thomas, and many other great thinkers and doers. And, of course, Irving Kristol himself, a friend and mentor to nick, whose brilliant insights into american politics and society shine brighter with every passing year. I couldnt be happier that honoree ofadt is the this years Irving Kristol lecture. Honorso deserving of the and epitomizes everything that is wonderful about aei. Everything i learned from Nick Eberstadt is so eye opening, everything from the roots of american poverty to Foreign Policy. He is one of the most original thinkers i have ever seen and met. Nicks work helped ignite a National Conversation from the state of the labor force america. Nick called attention to the impact of our failing culture on the welfare of working age man. Nick is a scholars scholar. Erudite but not pedantic, groundbreaking and deep, but always accessible, never boring. Like all great Public Policy work, his writing pointed to the promise of a better system, one that recognizes and rewards the dignity and longterm benefits of earned income. Nick eberstadt is a numbers guy with a moral compass as he has written. Demography is at the study of human numbers but it is the human characteristics of those numbers that define world events. Honestly, its a little a northhat god made him korea expert, a pompous call at an renaissance man into the same body. And most important, nicks is a family man in the best way. He adores his beautiful wife, his wonderful kids, he loves and cares for his aei family as his own. And he is, to put it deserving, unmentioned. A mensch. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the 2020 Irving Kristol award recipient, Nick Eberstadt. Thank you, robert. This award is also a sentimental pleasure. At aei, i am what you call a lifer, still enjoying an external are of serving here at 35 years and counting. My debts of affection and gratitude to irving himself are immense. Not least, i might not have met mrs. Eberstadt if he had not hired her at the publicinterest magazine. Mary and i are just two of the aspiring young writers irving went out of his way to encourage over his long life. Like his remarkable wife, Irving Kristol is an unforgettable inspiration. I only wish everyone listening could have known them, too. Aei kristol lectures, like the boyer lectures that preceded them, wrestle with weight issues with weighty issues of the day. But its fair to say no one could have anticipated last year when this prize was awarded, the path on which we now find ourselves. So todays lecture could hardly avoid addressing our Current Crisis. Two very different paths for america lie before us at the end of the covid pandemic. One is to a future of stagnation and division. The other is to a future of revitalization and hope, and the choice is ours to make. I am going to argue we can grasp the future that includes National Unity and progress for all. It is entirely doable. We already pretty much know how. We just have to want it and not lose heart. My message is directed especially to younger americans, those of you who dont really remember our country before the Great Recession, before 9 11, before the spread of the new misery. You will be the ones in charge of the american experiment tomorrow, the ones who have to do most of the heavy lifting, in revitalizing our nation. Like your forbearers, you will learn firsthand americas amazing capacity to mend its flaws, improve and advance. We have a record of doing this again and again and again. For almost 250 years. Your country, your fellow citizens are worthy of your unalloyed devotion. Deserved, actually. Someday you will be able to tell your children why the american future is always worth the struggle. Now, my lecture. America is in the midst of its greatest crisis since the second world war. The Novel Coronavirus is a pathogen with which humanity has no previous experience. When we will create a safe and effective vaccine, and how many waves of contagion will roll through our country before covid subsides, are at present unanswerable questions. Under the pressure of the pandemic, fault lines in a our country have been painfully exposed. We endure not only a socioeconomic emergency, but an explosion of anger and radicalized violence in our streets. These troubles have historical roots, problems long festering and long ignored. Washington has responded to the pandemic with an unprecedented peace time mobilization of national resources. Congress has authorized trillions of dollars in spending to support distressed businesses and households, and the Federal Reserve system has committed trillions more with no end yet in sight. In relation to national income, todays state outlays for the covid crisis are comparable to our peak defense effort in world war ii. Just as in the second world war, we are now embarked upon an enormous expansion of government reach in public debt. Eventually, we will achieve our National Objective in the struggle against covid19. Victory in world war ii was followed by Rapid Military demobilization and wholesale dismantling of wartime economic controls. But what of the postpandemic era . How will we demobilize the super welfare state hastily thrown together to prop up shaky businesses and cover shortfalls in personal income . How will we renew Economic Growth so we might, among other things, cope with our vastly increased public debt . If we simply muddle through, we are likely to muddle into a nightmare, an american future defined by a new sociocorporate welfare state, a stagnant politicized economy, and deep Financial Dependence upon officialdom, both elected and otherwise. In such a future, democracy would be degraded, freedoms lost, divisions inflamed, tomorrows promise squandered. Were we to settle for such a future, we would be the americans who chose against exceptionalism, who decided that just being another sluggish, demoralized social democracy was good enough for us and for posterity. To steer away from this grave danger, we need a very different vision of the future. Such a vision for the rapidly down for moreild silent mobilization of the u. S. Government and its central bank. But simply restoring the precovid status quo ante is not held many of us would be willing not a hill many of us would be willing to die on. That was a world where the American Dream was already faltering, where too many americans, especially younger americans, were mired in a previously unfamiliar new misery. As a look beyond covid, we have the opportunity to repair americas prepandemic flaws. We should be seeking a social and economic revitalization of our nation, a bold and thorough overhaul of our public and private ways to spark a dynamic upswing and progress for everyone. Division, the design should be prosperity for all. This can be done, and a revitalized america is a prize worth fighting for. Lets start with the longrun implications of the Current Crisis. The bad news is that the pandemic has made the task of revitalizing our nation more difficult. But the good news is its also made the need for such revitalization more difficult to ignore. To prevent collapse of the u. S. Economy and Financial Systems during the nationwide covid lockdown, washington unleashed a tidal wave of public resources. With the economy in freefall, the impulse to act urgently and go big was surely the right call. Yet, urgency also met at the also meant that the single largest state surge in americas history was necessarily improvised. Not only by the intended consequences, but unintended, unconsidered ones. Government transfers now account for much more of the American Family budget than ever before. And will continue to for an indefinite duration. Since all the covid stimulus spending, public debt is soaring. To what heights is still anyones guess. We will certainly exceed world war ii debt ratios soon, and additional rounds of deficit spending may still lie in store. The Congressional Budget Office just projected that the federal debt would be almost twice the size of the u. S. Economy by 2050. 2. 5 times the prepandemic ratio. Apart from japan, virtually no country on earth grapples with such a debt burden today. However, the full dimensions of the governments new role in u. S. Economic life were not revealed by fiscal numbers alone. For those overlooked the item, important not only in magnitude but in nature. At the behest of congress and the treasury department, our Federal Reserve system has crossed a rubicon. With its new pandemic rescue mandates, the fed readies to the role of managing and even micromanaging the American Economy through credit allocation, potentially lending vast sums not only to financial institutions, but also directly to firms that judge suitable for government support. The fed already dominates the markets for u. S. Treasury debt and mortgage debt as a result of previous lesser crises. Its by no means inconceivable that the Current Crisis will propel it to a comparably dominant position in domestic commercial credit. These dramatic transformations of our economy, remember, are the intended consequences of our pandemic measures. But a host of unintended consequences are also embedded in these policies. They pose direct risks to American Freedom and prosperity the longer the measures remain in force. Consider the special 600 a week pandemic unemployment benefits. These came on top of existing unemployment benefits, regardless of ones wealth or income. The year before the crisis, about onethird of all jobs in the u. S. Were paying less than that 600 a week. When added to regular unemployment benefits, this push payments for the jobless above median wage level in 36 of the 50 states. Welcome to a job market which all men and women can get an above average salary, so long as they do not work. One study estimated spending by pandemic unemployment recipients was 10 higher after the onset of the crisis than before it. Pandemic benefits, in other words, could be a jackpot and you didnt actually have to be unemployed to take the bonus home. In september 2020, about 12 million americans were looking for work, but over twice that number were collecting some form of unemployment insurance. Fortunately, we can still rely on a widespread American Work ethic to resist disincentives dangling from pandemic packages. For t