Administration or a new term of an Old Administration depending what happens, but in time for the stocktaking going around the world on how to open the economy when the u. S. Has behaved as it has for the past four years, but also equally importantly, when we are all facing the vulnerabilities that came out of the pandemic. Before introducing my colleagues that will be speaking today to the National Economic council and the economic advisers and trade policy and industrial policy about the u. S. , china dialogue, let me say a couple of words about the rebuilding project. We come from different classes but they reinforce each other paid we went through decades in which they went handinhand, the International Peace and posterity. That has not gone well since the Global Financial crisis and the pandemic has intensified those actions. Face, real risk we all Climate Change, technological slowdown and oppression and disinformation and the loss of privacy are all rising in a world in which these are threats faced by all humans here they are economic threats because the Economic Policy choices and. Ctivities affect how badly we need a global approach to get back to a world where we can confront these pandemics. It does not mean going back to the mobilization fantasies of the late 1990s. We have chosen where it rebuilding and we need to reassess what is going on in the World Economy and what parts are salvageable and what parts are essential and what parts can be restored. This is meant to be a practical exercise, so my colleagues and i including all the fellows from the Peterson Institute plus Research Analysts and members of the board a writing brief memos to senior policymakers around the world on what they should be doing christoph and that is what we are going to hear today and what they should stop doing immediately which is what we will also here today. Over the coming months through the end of the year, we will be rolling these out in trenches. Last week we rolled outlast weeo the secretary of commerce in the u. S. And to the trade representative as well as associated senior officials including evan greenberg. We will in two weeks have Larry Summers kampeter blair henry speaking about with the treasury should do. And then we will shift to the International Sphere and International Organizations and european organizations and what they should be doing to rebuild the Global Economy. Starting in january, we will put out a comprehensive land developing some proposals we have made from priorities and we will continue to track how the Global Economy is coming together. I am grateful to all my colleagues and our Board Members who are participating in board us into who support stakeholders who want us to come up with practical ideas to be within the sense of very realistic and we are talking to whoever is in office about what you can do better but to be ambitious and not constrained by shortterm politics and push for what can be done realistically. We are not wedded to the old ways, we are embedded to empirical reality. Our emphasis on the u. S. Administration on europe and International Organizations is not to say that the people on the other continents of africa of latin america of Asia Eastern Europe are not stakeholders at the table. Quite the opposite and we do not feel we should be presuming to talk for them. First and foremost, the u. S. Has to get its house in order and rebuild the Global Economy. Solutionsve economic are existential rights we face and must be targeted and they must be based in practical rebuilding. They must be global. Please join us in this effort. First, let me turn to my colleague, a nonresident senior fellow at peterson. Jason has been one of the extraordinary Economic Policymakers of the last 20 years, serving in a variety of senior roles in both the clinton and obama administrations, and in particular as chairman of the council of economic advisors in president obamas second term. Jason, weve asked you to address what the criminal with the National Economic council should do particularly in the area of interNational Economics. Jason thank you so much, adam, for organizing this excellent rebuilding series, and including me. I served as Deputy Director of the National Economic council during the last financial crisis. I walked in the door of the white house on january 21, 2009, into the second floor of the is much larger as a share of the in 2009. Ow than it was the difference is, the Interest Rates are much lower than they result,2009 and as a interest debt is lower today than it has been for much of u. S. History, much of postwar history. Rate adjustedest that means the United States can borrow money and repay it with money thats even less valuable in the future. Some of that is a byproduct of the crisis itself, but much of that was true even before the crisis. Even in january and february of this year. That gives effectively an unlimited amount of room to respond to the short term problems with fiscal measures, as much as is needed, and it doesnt give unlimited license for longer term policies. I still think they should be paid for so that the debt isnt increasing above and beyond what would happen in the baseline. But it takes any pressure off from considerations about active deficit reduction. The third important difference from 2009 is in 2009, the United States had unleashed the crisis on the world. We had caused it. We had spread it around the world, and at least for the first year or two, the United States was the most severely impacted in the world. The u. S. Economy was reeling. This time around, the United States did not cause the immediate crisis. Moreover, in part because of the very large initial fiscal response, one that tragically has not been followed through on and been allowed to lapse, but the initial was so large, the monetary response was so quick, effective and decisive, that the u. S. Economy has actually suffered less than many other economies around the world, especially in europe. That puts the United States in a better position to help lead a rebuilding of the Global Economy. That rebuilding of the Global Economy is absolutely necessary, if americans were immune to the virus that causes covid19, but that virus had ravaged the rest of the world the way that it has , we still would have likely had a recession in the United States, just from the global shock that covid19 is causing. The United States playing a role to rebuild the economy is important for rebuilding the economy is important the sake of the u. S. Economy. Other shoes of the have not dropped. Load out of capital emerging markets, it was terrifying that we might have a wave of emerging market debt crises. The United States be in a better position economically to show leadership. As a side note chinas economy has fared even better than the United States because its done a better job of getting its virus under control but you havent seen china taking steps, like bilateral debt forgiveness, leading the g20 and the like. The United States is the only country that can do that. It hasnt done it to date. The immediate priority for the National Economic council for the white house, for the entire government. I am delighted to be part of this project, i think it is truly important. Priorities andcy President Council of economic advisers that would strengthen the u. S. Economy while fostering rebuilding and recovery. In my remarks today, i want to emphasize three points. The First Priority is that we need to deploy additional fiscal stimulus to support the u. S. Recovery from the pandemic recession and over the longer run, strength automatic fiscal stabilizers. Background, the early recovery showed a sharp rebound in aggregate demand. We saw that in employment come in consumer spending, and many other indicators. But that was the good news. The bad news is that the recovery has been only partial to date. September, 11n million above the it will drop which is terrific, in some respects. Nonetheless, we are only halfway back. We still need to create or recreate 11 million more jobs to get back to where we were in february. And the pace of recovery has slowed way down. The september change in payrolls was about 600,000. As you can probably calculate in your head, that rate of increase is going to take a very long the millions and millions of jobs we need to get back to full employment. But i dont think that we can even count on this floor piece of improvement continuing. Policy reportcal of the early stages of the recovery in as we know, most of those measures were either one off or to have expired. At a minimum, to avoid recovery stalling, i recommend that we had more funding for states and additional aid for small businesses. We also need to reinstate supplements to unemployment periodts and extend the of extended unemployment eligibility. The short term. Looking at what needs to be done over the longer run, we should recognize that fiscal stimulus during periods of economic weakness, not just the downturn, but in many past, the downturns in this country and in other countries has been to small, too shortlived, and is too susceptible to shortterm political wrangling. A failure to pass more stimulus in the last three months demonstrates this point literally. And the fact that Monetary Policy is likely to be constrained by issues for the first you will future means that countercyclical fiscal policy is just going to have to play a much larger role fighting recessions going forward. To point being that we need expand automatic stabilizers in the countercyclical fiscal the reliedt is not on discretionary fiscal policies seeing changes. There are a number of good proposals out there for doing so and this is building off what jason said, that basically involves being much more generous and in particular, leaving stimulus to economic commissions. Foodxample, you could have stamps, enhanced unemployment insurance, higher medicaid spending and lower payable tax rates. Alternative on when the unemployment rate, which is a certain threshold, and then turn off again when it comes back down. So thats the First Priority i have for you. More needed priority is strengthening u. S. Social programs. The consequences of the pandemic for employment, income, and the wellbeing of American Families have highlighted preexisting weaknesses in u. S. Economic and social systems. Losses,rus cases, job and business failures have all occurred disproportionately among people with less income and education and among members of disadvantaged racial minority groups. In other words, the pandemic has really underscored the need to of thehen the safety disbursement harms of recession on more vulnerable groups. Strengthening the cyclical it in a reduce the likelihood way that dampened the pace of recovery. That is going to be true in this recession, is going to be true in recessions going forward. To emphasize the longerterm benefits of more spending on social programs. There is a growing body of evidence that shows that many of those programs represent crucial investments in peoples future lives. Studies have documented, for poor children exposed to medicaid, food stamps, public housing, and highquality preschool experience more Economic Security as adults decades later than the otherwise would have. Makes a, the evidence case for providing more support for programs that benefit poor children and their parents not just because they believe relieve moments, but longterm benefits. The benefits would accrue for more than those directly affected. Ander potential output higher tax revenues, lower future spending, safety net programs, and fewer funds. Creating more economic mobility is also likely to strengthen our social fabric which would be another benefit for everyone, not just those directly affected. Ofle we are on the topic investment in people, i should also note that we need to do more to broaden access to higher education. Also, college pays off well as an investment or most people. To reform the Student Loan Program so that there are when the investment turns out to be a poor one. We should also greatly expand the lowincome families, to reduce the need for state loans in the first place. And we should provide more Financial Support for community in order to create a Standard Alternative for high value, low high high profit colleges. Even with the pandemic, recession is behind us, we will very likely be facing a longerterm challenge of low productivity growth. The investments in people i just discussed will help, but its also important that we invest in other things including public structures. Infrastructure investment in the United States now represents a lower percentage of gdp than in most years of the past halfcentury. The quality of Infrastructure Investment is declining road to that of other countries. Relative to that of other countries. In addition, adequate public discourage Foreign Investment and trade in the United States. Need to focus additional spending on projects with high returns in order to avoid going nowhere and as part of that, we need to recognize that its important to fund repairs of existing capital rather than focusing solely on flashy new projects. Also, guns u. S. Infrastructure is less important than getting what is needed built and getting value from the dollars that the United States spends. We should allow for Competitive Bidding for construction, installation and maintenance of long security sensitive parts of u. S. Infrastructure and we should insist that foreign governments allow the same opportunities for u. S. Firms. So those are my three priorities. I want to pick up on what jason was saying about how to figure out the budget. Including reducing federal budget deficits relative to those projected under current law. I agree with jason that given these historically low Interest Rates, the accumulation of federal debt is not one of the countries they get economic challenges right now. Trying to pay for fiscal mealtime the counterproductive, we all agree on that. Going beyond that, i think it is sufficient that any increase is discretionary or ongoing federal spending related to these priorities is accompanied by an increase in federal revenues. Thank you for letting me discuss what i think our priority should be and i look forward to your question. Thank you. Thes great to have interpretation of investments not just in children but in Human Capital and infrastructure capital. But wepay lip service have to take advantage of the opportunity. Theof the hallmarks of Trump Administration in its first and perhaps only term is policy anddustrial trade policy created a new office of manufacturing and trade in the white house. Irvin to discuss the issues raised by u. S. Industrial policy in such an approach. Doug is im sorry, i dont have his name chair with me, but is a distinguished professor at Dartmouth College and has served as a senior staff economist. He is a nonresident senior fellow. He is the author of the definitive history of american trade policy in a very beautiful paperback edition as well as free trade under fire and a host of other extremely important books about history and reality in u. S. Economic policy. Doug, over to you, please. A you very much, it is a pleasure to be here. As adam mentioned, in 2017, trump established a new outfit in the white house, the office of trade and Manufacturing Policy to abide the president on measures to strengthen u. S. Based manufacturing. Veryis going to be a important issue moving forward for the next administration, but it might come as a surprise that even though i think the issues are important, i also proposed abolishing the office for a couple of reasons. One is that it duplicates many of the function in other agencies in the executive branch. It duplicates what the Commerce Department does, defense department, ustr in terms of trade and manufacturing and it is not clear what its Precise Mission is. Because it is a recently established, it has no established expertise in the a large doesnt have come experienced staff, and has no formal policy role or authority, and no institutional standing and recognized by congress. The office could perform a coordinating role in terms of coordinating trade and Manufacturing Policy across various agencies, but the National Economic council already pe