University, Lauren Copeland. Let me begin with early voting. What should and should not we read into the numbers . Guest i dont think we should read too much into the numbers. Are votingocrats early at much higher rates than republicans. That thepect to see early vote will look a lot more democratic than republican, and the in person vote on election day well look a lot more republican than democratic, which should balance things out in ohio. One other predictions for voter turnout overall . Guest ohio traditionally has a higher rate of voter turnout than other states in the country, because it is a swing state and because our elections are so competitive. In the past, it has been upwards of 60 , and i think we can see even higher voter turnout ra te this election season. Host walk us through the history of how ohio has voted in previous president ial elections. Guest so there is a saying that is soe saying that goes ohio, so goes the nation. It is a saying that has the virtue of being true. No republican has ever won the white house without winning the presidency. Since 1964, ohio voted for the winning candidate in every single president ial election. Is it considered purple . Guest it is a purple state, but it is trending more towards red, so unlike other postindustrial michigan, states like wisconsin, and pennsylvania, where trump won by less than one percentage point in 2016, in ohio, trump won by eight percentage points. ,n the 2018 Midterm Election republicans it the state with the exception of Sherrod Brown who won reelection. So suggests that ohio is moving further to the right than it has been in the past. Host lets talk about the polling you all are doing. What is your polling showing you ,bout the great lakes area ohio, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and what those voters are telling you versus four years ago . Performingbiden is much better in these four states that Hillary Clinton was four years ago. Theres a couple of reasons for that. Number one, joe biden has Favorability Ratings that are positive in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. They are neutral in ohio. Ohioans, asthat well as people in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania, think joe biden could do a Donald Trumpan of handling the coronavirus outbreak or pandemic, as well as unifying the country. Ohio has been one of the states hardest hit by the coronavirus jobseak, and its effect on , so the Unemployment Rate here in april was actually just as high as it was in 1976 when they started tracking this in ohio. There are some things working for trump in the state, and then includes our demographics. We have Slower Growth rates than the rest of the country. We also have a less diverse population, and we have more white voters with less education than the rest of the country, and all of these demographic , buts favor donald trump we see biden making inroads among key groups that donald won inne in 2016 2016, including white workingclass voters and those without a college degree. T what is unique without about the great lakes state polling that you do . Why do you do that, in ohio specifically echo guest in specifically . Guest in 2019, we were interested in the question of whether ohio was a bellwether state. We know ohio is a swing state, but in the past, it has been a bellwether state, meaning what happens in ohio is reflective of what happens in the country as a whole. But we are also interested in whether joe biden or the retaketic nominee would michigan, ohio, and wisconsin since trump won those three states by less than 80,000 votes. So we decided to look at these four states as a whole because we believe that, if joe biden could flip michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania, he could easily win the presidency. The interesting thing about ohio this time around is that joe biden does not need to win ohio to win the presidency, but if he wins ohio, it is lights out for trump. It is hard to envision trump has a path to the white house unless he wins ohio. Host why is that . Guest so donald trump has not expanded the elect oral maps since 2016, so if you the 2016, so ifp since you look at the map and flip wisconsin, pennsylvania, tohigan, then biden gets more than 270 Electoral College votes, so joe biden has an easier climb to the white house than trump does this time around. Also, if biden wins florida, the theces of him winning presidency go up to about 99 . So trump also needs to hold onto florida in order to have a chance of winning this election. Host we are getting our viewers involved in this conversation as well. If you are supporting the atsident, Vice President 202 7488001. If you are supporting the Vice President the former vice senator, and the Kamala Harris, 202 7488000. Ohio voters two 202 7488003 call in to 202 7488003. Caller good morning, greta. Host go ahead. Caller im voting joe biden me, is donald trump, to not the a pit of the of a president. The a president. Epitome of a president. If 90hard on china and some percent of news media saying negative things about donald trump, how could you support him . Donald trump is in the news every day. I could turn on my news every day and there is donald trump. , he is thethis Biggest NationalSecurity Threat to the United States we have ever had. How can you have a president have a meeting with putin and there is no notes. He met with the last time with putin and there were no there was no u. S. Interpreter. Donald trump has money in the bank of china, and the bank of russia. The chinese have office in manhattan. Donald trump charged the u. S. Government 8 million to go to maralago. Hes a hardworking president , but he has been out of the country on golf trips for 280 days. The Government Office said donald trump sent 141 Million Dollars for the general public just for him to go back and forth from maralago. Say donald trump entities or hotel entities, they charged if that is not a monument, he is so host we will leave it there. Are you pulling on the issue of character for these two candidates . Guest we have not been polling the issue of character, but i do know that there are reluctant voters who prefer President Trumps policies but want joe bidens temperament. That is where we see undecided voters. Point, trumps net favorability rating is underwater in ohio, negative seven points. Among independents, that number is 23 points. That suggests people are concerned about his temperament, as well as the desire to return to normalcy. I think some of that is reflected in carols comment as well. Peoples a sense that believe biden will bring normalcy back to the presidency, and that is why we see a lot of the Political Action committees like the Lincoln Project and 43 for 46 supporting joe biden this time around. What are the independent voters in ohio likely to do from your polling, and do they turn out to vote . Guest i think we will see turnout higher amongs independents then in 2016. Much votinge not so for clinton because they liked her but because they did not like donald trump. In contrast, joe biden has done a great job as presenting himself as this scrappy kid from scranton and someone who will stand up for white workingclass voters. Thisnk for independents means that they are going to be more willing to go out and vote this time around because we do not have a polarizing candidate on the democratic ticket, like we did in 2016. Now, those who support trump may disagree with me and call joe biden a socialist who is going to raise taxes and someone who is too far to the left, but i think he is quite centrist democrats and that appeals to independents in ohio. Host john, supporting the president in florida. Caller how are you . Host morning. Caller good morning to you, also. Host go ahead, john. Questions. Ave a few how do you think ohio is going to look for biden . When you watch biden chooses vp, on aa harris, who president ial debate called him a sexist and racist, yet, she accepted his nomination as vp for the vice presidency of our country. If you really watch cspan, cnn, msnbc, fox i watch them all. I voted for biden i voted for obama twice. I was offended when i heard Oprah Winfrey on National Television make this statement i guess White America has spoken. Shucks. White americans spoke when we voted obama in, so where is your systemic racism . This is a fallacy in our country. Actually it actually upsets me that you consider most of the population in our country a racist country, where every other country in the world wants to come to our country. We need to look deeper and allow open debates in our colleges, not just College People that come on television and give us their view. John, Lauren Copeland, speak to johns comments about the Vice President s vp pick with senator harris. Bitt i was a little confused. Could clarify his statement about her acceptance of the vp . Host during the primary debates he is saying senator harris called the former Vice President a racist and a sexist, and how she could then go with him. I am wondering about her being the vp candidate in ohio and how that is playing out. Harris willnk who are democrats farther to the left to go out and vote. Independentsoff and people who are further to the right, but i think she was a thatpick overall, given people have criticized joe biden for being 78 years old and just another white guy. I think Kamala Harris brings energy to the ticket. Also, what i hear the caller saying is he is tired of people treating any Demographic Group as a monolithic group. Thati hear him saying is there might be a tendency for votersto classify white or white workingclass voters as racist, when that is not the case. It is just like when we look at women in the battleground states or even in the u. S. As a whole. Republican women are very different from democratic women, and, so, it is hard to treat women as a Demographic Group as a whole. I hear the frustration in the callerss voice about the tendency to classify white voters as racist when it is usually party id that drives vote choice and not peoples attitudes on race. Host lets talk about some of the groups in ohio. They are not all going to vote the same way, but what about suburban women in ohio . Guest yeah, so we cannot break the data down to suburban women, but we have broken it down to the suburbs. The reason we cannot break it down to suburban women is we start getting into numbers that are so small that the margin of error is so high to render the data meaningless, but we see joe biden leading in the suburbs of ohio. We also see people in the people equally likely as in urban areas to disapprove of how trump is handling the coronavirus, and we also see people in the suburbs believing joe biden is the better candidate to unify the country. I think biden is evidently cutting into trumps lead among the suburbs, and he could be the wins ohioat, if biden which i am not sure he will that the suburbs will help them get there. Host what about religious voters . Either evangelical, christian voters . How do they tend to vote in ohio . Guest one of the reasons ohio is more conservative than michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania is the religiosity rates are higher here, and they tend to vote for republican candidates often because they are prolife and they are worried about democrats expanding abortion rights, for example. For i think is interesting the religious vote this time around is now that Amy Coney Barrett has been confirmed to the supreme court, they know there is a 63 conservative majority on the court that may make decisions about abortion that would further restrict rights, and that could free up their vote for biden if that was their main concern about his candidacy. Ohio,james and cleveland, supporting the president. Hi, james. Caller good morning. Thanks for taking my call. Host go ahead. Caller lauren, i live right up the road from Baldwin Wallace. I take great issue with some of the comments you are making on air today. Had a nerveinally to put my trump sign in my front yard. My neighbors are also trump fans, and the are too scared to because of radical democrats. Theyre worried about getting a brick throwing their window or a paintball shot at their home. I totally disagree where you are saying joe biden is leading in the suburbs. I think that is a fate. I think i think that is a fake. I think you are trying to see what you want to see with your research. I disagree with with your comments and i would like to hear your response. Guest here is my response, or whatever political predispositions i might have or my colleague might have at Weldon Wallace university, or than Baldwin Wallace university, more than anything, we want our polling to be accurate. We take great measures to make sure it is. My comments on biden dean and the suburbs are based strictly on the data leading in the suburbs are based strictly on data and not my opinion. Some of the things we do in our polls to make sure we dont underestimate trump support in ohio is we wait by education weight by education so people without College Degrees are sample, andin the we also have caps on place on the urban and suburban vote, so the rural boat is not underrepresented in our vote is not underrepresented in our polls. Everything i am saying is based strictly on the numbers and not what i would like to see or what my political predispositions might be. Of course, you are free to disagree with me, but all i am doing is reporting that the data say. Host can people find the data you have accumulated on website bw. Edu . A googlere, if they do search for Baldwin Wallace great lakes phone, we have all four sets of holes we have done up we have done,s and we have detailed exactly how we do our polling. One of the reasons we do this is that i want to be able to sleep at night, so we are completely transparent about how we conduct our surveys. In will become ohio, supporting the bidenharris ticket. Hi, ken. Caller good morning, thank you particular call. I am supporting bidenharris. , andalso a suburban woman just on the whole, Donald Trumps leadership as it regards to the coronavirus has been completely lacking. Having left the management of it up to the states regarding human lives, he said, it is what it is. He turned a Global Health issue into a political issue, where his supporters did not wear masks. If we had followed the science instead of opinion or his wanting to downplay it and not cause panic, per his words, that we would not be where we are now s virus. He runs ads right out saying we will not be safe in joe bidens america, but the footage is of events happening now on his watch. I am not sure that is a message she wants to put out there. He is notible responsible for the actions of people who destroy property, but he could have dialed back his law andtance order stance and been a leader in that regard, as well. He had Peaceful Protesters cast for a photo op of holding a bible upside down in front of for a photo gassed op of holding a bible upside down in front of the church. Host how did you and your fellow suburban females vote in 2016 . Guest i voted for obama in 2016. I have to say, even though i am typically a democrat, i am not solidified in that. If there were a republican weredate whose values truer to the republican form, i may have voted for that person because even though i am typically a democrat, i am not set on joe biden as a precedent. And some concerns flipflopping on the issues, and just with trump having over 500 children separated from their issues,with immigration calling women nasty, and they are monsters and the divisiveness, and him tweeting that he does not know what qanon is, telling White Supremacists to stand back and stand by, and then having them take that message of violence as sort of a cue to say, ok, guys, standby. Host all right, kim. Heard your point. Lauren copeland, what do you make of a female suburban woman in ohio . Guest on the ground, that is what i am hearing, as well. I am in a more conservative suburb who voted for trump in vote. Ith 60 of the i think what we are seeing is the nationalization of local politics, where issues like the coronavirus and the coarsening of political discourse are affecting politics on the ground. Just yesterday, i received a the gop if youom want to keep the schools open in strongsville, you should support trump. I thought that was quite interesting. Also to kims point, it is surprising this year that ohio is even on the table given that trump won by eight points in 2016 and that the republicans did so well in the state in 2018, so what i hear from kim is that there has been a failure of leadership at the National Level and that is what is making ohio a competitive state once again in 2020. People are specifically concerned about the coronavirus. Not only because it could affect our health but because it affects their daily lives, where people with children in schools have to deal with whether their kids are going to be in school or doing remote schooling, and they have to adjust their work and daycare schedules. So the issues that trump is addressing or not addressing are definitely affecting suburban women here in ohio. Host tom, dayton, ohio. Supporting the president. Caller yes, i am. He is the least racist person i have ever known, donald trump. You can even ask herschel walker. This aint a racist country. We voted for a mixed man, obama, halflight, half, two times in a row. We are not half white, half black, two times in a row. We are not a racist country. I am not going to vote for joe biden. I voted for president obama the