Its about 50 minutes. Welcome to rnegie connects, a virtual series of conversations and on issues of critical iortance. Tays conversation on how the world sees america is especially timely. We are on the cusp of one of the most consequenti elections in American History and even though the nation is preoccupied with covid and economic recovery and Foreign Policy tends to be an inside the beltway issue, its likely not to figure prominently in Voter Preferences and choices in this electction the resultof , that election will have a decisive impact on how america acts in the world and how the world evaluates the consequences of those actions. I ththink its clear that we are at a crossroads. Donald trump has played the role of disruptor, fundamentally altering the policies ofis for postwar, postcold war predecsors, embracing auoritarians, rejecting alliances and multilateral diplplomacy and embarking on wht caonly be described as a wholesale withdrawal or to or a threat to withdraw from so many enterprises. Tdp, paris clements, inf treaty, the random clear agreements, unesco and who and not the Iran Nuclear Agreement unesco and who and not the , disruption is by definition always bad. Its bad if theres nothing to replace it. Its bad if its followed by policies that dont serve the national interest. And its bad if its done for tethered toke political interest biden on the other hand offers a much different approach we u. S. Back atld, a return tohe e the head of the table. The problem and we will talk to our distinguished panel about this is that the table has changed. Covid is probably without exaggerating the most consequential event in the world since the Second World War and theres no going back to the way things were. China is probably emerging stronger economically, is is unchecked, north korea has more nukes got the us embassy in jerusalem, israelis in the arab states are making peace through normalization. Assad is in power in syria and globalization has taken a huge hit. One additional point, biden is going to confront should he be elected the most serious challenge in National Recovery since Franklin Roosevelt without the benefit of what roosevelt had a world war left america , stronger at home and with more influence in the world abroad. And i only raise the final issue, is it possible for the United States given how badly ized andysed tribal polarized we are to create once again a measure of consensus on american Foreign Policy that is wise so many questions with , prudent, and durable. So many questions with apologies to clint eastwood, we have used the good bad and ugly trope, we can agree on the bad and the ugly part but what about the last four years in terms of the good . What are trumps accomplishments . What about the last four years as most alienated and delighted allies and adversaries . How bad as the reputational hit then for the us and who would our allies and adversaries really prefer as the next president and finally, what are the expectations of those allies and adversaries for a Biden Administration should there be one. Fortunately i dont have to , we have three extraordinary answer these questions. Presenters there, all extremely well known to you. Christian amanpour is the anchor of the networks flagship Global Affairs program amanpour and amanpour and company on cbs. Stephen erlanger is he the chief Diplomatic Correspondent in europe for the new york times. Hes spent a long career in overseas postings including bangkok, belgrade, berlin, london, moscow, paris, prague and yes, even in washington d. C. Christian and stephen ive known for a long time, and finally the ineffable david rennie who is beijing bureau chief for the economist and author of the publications wonderful column. So five minutes each, we have a at 9 50. And there will be a time for q and a at the end. Without further ado, christian, im going to turn the virtual floor over to you. Maybe youll recognize it but people will recognize how this disruption is working out for you . It doesnt look really good from this side and both adversaries and allies are clearly looking at what is going to happen to them no matter who becomes the next president. I think that we wake up today in the afternoon in london we see a rise and a dramatic surge in covid cases, filling hospitals. We see in france whats happened with these terrorist attacks that have left one woman beheaded in a church and two other people killed. People in many parts of the world now because of covid are i think speaking, certainly those in the polls i see seeking not chaos and destruction but confidence and confidence. Confidence is a big word. Some see it as becoming necessary and as they see that covid is being mismanaged by so many countries but there are real standouts where it is being managed. We hear that the who chief says this virus will not be defeated unless there is global coordination and cooperation. Thats what the world expects from the United States. We havent had it, there is no coordinated plan to have coalition like they did with whether it was ebola and before that the financial crisis. That hasnt happened and this is what were faced with right now. You mentioned some of the major treaties and agreements that have been disrupted and thrown out the window that most people in europe are a sure these are correct whether its the air and Iran Nuclear Deal for these one set of pressures about nuclear breakouts from iran, whether its the climate records climate accord which most of the rest of the world believe is , a real major electoral issue and a major issue for most of the world. Whether its messing around with the Nato Alliance or whether its seeming to embrace authoritarian leaders at a time when autocracy and authoritarianism seems to be moving further and further into our western democratic space, this is a big worry. And it certainly in the middle east where you have much activity by president from whether its moving the jerusalem, embassy to jerusalem and whether its helping to engineer these normalizations between countries of israel, but lets be honest israel has not been at war with, neither the uae, neither by rain and to a bahrain and to a lesser extent, issues with sudan reedit sudan. You have around as a country that many people see needs to be dealt with in a way to contain it but one of the recent polls that was taken about the middle east shows that an alarming 49 percent of people who were poll ed do not believe that either president crump or biden would be good for the middle east or the remainder 40 percent believe biden would be better but that they did not necessarily embrace all the middle east policies that the Obama Administration embraced. Only 12 percent believe that trump would be better for the middle east. The majority of those who opposed do not agree with moving the embassy particularly in , light of the fact that the continuing the Biggest Issue according to these polls is the still unresolved major issue in that part of the world and that is the Israeli Palestinian state of conflict. So thats just sort of a tour if you like. But i think most people will see want to see an america that perhaps gets into its traditional role of leading coalitions to make the world a better place. Christiana, thank you so much. You. En, do you to after those wonderful contributions, i shall do my best. Erin. Oblem, youre right, trump was a great disruptor and the problem is when the pieces fall down again, they never fall in the same place. The world has changed and whatever trump has done or not done, he hasnt had much effect on the rise in china, which david, i am sure will talk about. He hasnt, you know, covid, there was a lot of patronizing americans on covid by europe and now europe is in a state of infection thats probably worse than the United States. So note democratic government will come out unharmed or unblamed, even though what they all they tried to do is balance Economic Growth versus health. Its not easy and i dont think anyone has done terribly well in a liberal Democratic Society but except perhaps japan, it may be south korea. But europeans look at trump as a nightmare, i have to say. European polls very much appreciate despite his complaining about nato, trump was the president that put more american troops and military efforts into europe, into nato particularly along the russian , border to enhance deterrence so they are quite fond of trump. And his support of authoritarianism is a separate case. In terms of what he has actually done as opposed to what he said, he was good for natos deterrence rate but he has seen europe as a competitor, as a rival. He believes the European Union was somehow set up to confront the United States, not to be an ally. And he has supported brexit , which is essentially a breaking up of the European Union. Repeatedly the heads of france and germany, when are you leaving the European Union . I think hes finally stopped asking that question but it is his unpredictability, his basic distaste for what europe does, for its trade and economic power that has people very very very, very anxious, and at the same time, you know, a Biden Victory would feel like it would return to civilization, but despite the warm words that will ensue, and the happy summit meeting, because after all biden is a kind of romantic transatlanticer one that we havent really had or decades. Despite all that, there is this anxiety that american politics has become so polarized that foreignpolicy has become polarized, americans have this loss of consistency and that biden will be 78 becomes if he becomes president would probably only be a one term president. A republican might easily win again who shares some of the same views as President Trump. There will be a contingency constantly and a kind of wariness and the last point i would make is people are worried about biden asking a lot from on china, which makes them nervous. End he would be the kind of to european efforts of strategic autonomy and a Stronger Security and Foreign Policy in europe like putting it back into the comfortable stand. I will leave it there. The point you raised about whether trump is a headline or a trend line is a fascinating one, at least from a european perspective. You could easily end up with maybe a moderated version of donald trump. And a more coherent one. And a more tactical one. Right. David, over to you. Talking to you from beijing where i have been for the last 2. 5 years. In the context before that i was six years in washington as bureau chief and before that i was in europe covering the European Union and so before i get to china id like to look at , why i think this election even if joe biden wins isnt going to elation that we saw in europe in 2008 when barack obama was elected. Barack obama for the west of europe, and certainly even here in asia, represented a reset. And a recent from what . It was the idea that under george w. Bush america used instrument just strength clumsily and without consulting, without listening, without empathy. It tried to impose simple American Solutions and had broken those places, whether it was iraq or afghanistan, so obama offered. I think we may have lost david . Can you hear me . We can. Obama offered a reset because he was a global citizen, he was empathetic , he was going to consult. Why is this election not going to be the same . The problem with this america, the donald Trump America is not a strong country imposing Solutions Like democracy. At the problem with the world under donald trump is that he seems to have revealed ways in which america itself domestically is a broken country. Lesson that people here in china pulled from americas performance with covid is that individualism is actually a selfishness to the point of refusing to wear face masks or refusing to believe science. It is a broken country. Even if joe biden is elected president , i think for europeans , there is going to be a fear that he will call their bluff and set you complain about the lack of coalitions and multilateral alliances and china. Well, great, lets confront china. There will be a sense of accountability i think in europe that donald trump has paid at least part of the price for mismanagement of covid. Stephen is absolutely right. Worldure the rest of the cannot help but think maybe in four years time, the 40 of americans, 40 something percent of americans who never lost faith in donald trump, to the disbelief of much of the rest of world, that they have not gone away. That the this has been a tremendously divided america, almost 5050 and it cant be wished away, its not just donald trump, its trumps america and trumps americans. And finally, how it is viewed in china . Clearly the Chinese Communist party is not interested in telling a story about accountability at the ballot box for its own people, so the propaganda each year all about corruptiononey and and the fact that voting, that democracy is basically this kind incynical i, it is a game which the powerful and rich and ignore the real interests of the ordinary people and see their own selfish interest. The message from the Propaganda Machine is it does not really matter if we win, then voting changes nothing. It is the same oligarchy and what for . The individualism and individual rights and claims and legitimacy did america uses to criticize countries like china, those have been left incredibly exposed by covid. Covid is not just a Public Health disaster. It is a failure for democracy and as china tells it it is respect for a one party system that suggests a foreign legitimacy which gives you a mandate. The ability to give your people safe and mobilize and organize. We can talk about covid in china. That is not strictly true, because to add to stephens list other liberal democracies that , the fantastic island of taiwan 10 deaths from , covid, a very liberal democracy. So theres nothing inherently good about a communist system but it is the case that americas handling of covid ads adds to Everything Else and means no matter who wins on tuesday , there will not be a kind of barack obama reset. There will be a lot of lingering unhappiness about not just trump but trumps america and what exists of that. Fascinating, the folks who study why certain authoritarian qualities and democratic qualities did better than others argue that there are two or three factors. One is that respect for capacity and confidence. The second is faith in government. Do your point about individualism in america and our past, and our refusal to accept comprehensive solutions to problems. It is no wonder we do not have a sensible gun control policy here or health care. That is critically important, i think. Arehe way other countries going to look at the United States and the broken house metaphor i think is critically important. We will come back to this on the issue of whether or not beijing is conflicted on who they really want as the next president. But let me ask a few questions. Steve, this one is for you. Thateferred to the fact one of the more positive aspects of the trumpets four years years has been natos deterrence. We have talked about with the bad and the ugly is with respect policies. So let me ask the heretical question. Other than deterrence with respect to nato, some criticize the weight he has gone about that as are there any redemptive aspects over the course of the last four years . Steve, we will start with you, but also want to ask david and christiana. I think one has to try to be cold about all of this and i think trump has drawn attention to chinas manipulation of trading regimes and its misuse of the wto and the Security Threat of the chinese scientific progress and Artificial Intelligence and technology and huawei present to the western world. And this is something obama wasnt very interested in, i have to say, and trump overstates things, as he does forever. But the fact is he has gotten britain to pull out of huawei, and sweden and germany. He has woken up europe, which now says in a policy paper it sees china as a systemic rival. Which is stronger language than before. The german vdi, the sort of business groups in germany, have a stronger voice in warning against china trade. Has had to merkel listen. So i think on china, also theres been a kind of wakeup call that trump has trumpeted maybe much too strongly. And frankly, pompeos offer to the Foreign Policy of the ecou. S. Dialogue on china, i think is a very good thing. I think it might work better under a Biden Administration. But in principle, its the way one should respond. So i think you know, that is the something. And also its failed, god knows, but if you look at whats going on for a long time Obama Left Office worried about north korea. Whatever happened there, guess yes, they are still building up stuff, but there has not been the war that obama was really worried about. Iran i think is a big problem. There are lots of things he hasnt done well. But youre asking me to look on the bright side of life. Right, and i didnt ask the question to suggest that theres a symmetrical balance to bring his deft handling of Foreign Policy and some of the incompetency that im seeing. Ok christiane, to you. Look, i tend to not be as cold as an analyst and as an observer and a reporter. I believe in values. I believe that