State in this cycle. Guest first, demographic changes. The state is rapidly changing and was moving in a peripheral direction for the last couple of election cycles. See doesnt explain what we in terms of this particular election, where it seems to be a good amount of republican defection from ranks and republicans indicating they are voting democrat, independents are leaning toward biden and mark kelly, the senate candidate. We have seen a surge in democratic registration in the state. On the whole, that is unlikely to change the trend as were publicans far outnumber democrats in the state. Host you had an oped in the New York Times titled why would a republican vote biden, asked arizonans . Why would they support biden . What has changed . Guest i credit my colleague here at the university of arizona. Together we worked on a survey with the arizona policy lab, an organization affiliated with the school of government and public policy. What we find is a surprising number of arizonans across the ,isle, democrats, independents and republicans, have indicated they sort of lean towards the middle. This notion that we are caught in this polarized climate between leftleaning democrats and rightleaning republicans, while in some cases is true, it generally doesnt mirror what we see in the state. Host there is a paragraph in that oped that i want to read to everyone talk a little bit about. Says, it is no longer necessary reflected in what the parties have to offer. Arizonans often moderate democrats and republicans have been left up for grabs in the middle wall Major Party Candidates have often moved to opposite ends of the ideological spectrum. Have arizonans become moderate . Guest i believe arizonans have long been moderates. We have been a with quite a few with a large retirement community. Piece is really given the time of Political Polarization come over the past several decades, we have seen Political Parties move towards the right among republicans into the left among democrats. That has largely been a trend among political elites and not necessarily voters. What we are seeing in the polarized climate is leaving a large swath of the population up for grabs. Host our viewers can take part in the conversation. We will open up regular lines for this piece. If you support President Trump and Vice President mike pence, call 202 7488001. If you support joe biden and his Vice President ial candidate kamala harris, call 202 7488000. If you are undecided or support a thirdparty ticket, your number is 202 7488002. We are going to open up a special line for arizona residents only. If you live in arizona, we want to know what you think. We want you to call 202 7488003. You can also text us at that same number, 202 7488003. We are always reading on social media, twitter and cspan wj, and facebook and facebook. Com cspan. Surrogates and both President Trump and surrogates have been in arizona. Who do they appeal to in arizona . , a month ago,ona the Washington Post did a really nice east a nice piece describing the political nature of various regions within the state. It is generally fair to look at the state as for regions, tucson, which is where i am, which is the more liberal, democratic leaning part of the state. And northwest portions of the state tend to really lean republican. Is most likely what will decide this election and counts for roughly half of voters and probably will this race as well. Trump isto me that most likely going to win the northwest in the northeast, probably likely to lose tucson. It really is maricopa county, which is a very diverse county, that is phoenix and surrounding suburbs. So when we see the divisive nature of the president s rhetoric, that will appeal to people in maricopa county. But we have all heard the story how trump is supposedly losing that vote and were biden may pick up more traction. Host what are some of the top issues that arizonans are voting on in this election . Guest that is also a great question. In our survey, we didnt actually ask what is the most important issue facing the state or country. That is actually a pretty common question asked in the survey and we didnt have the resources to included. You will likely see an answer to that question the surveys that come out after election day. In our survey, arizonans feel strongly about what many of the nation feels strongly about, and covid, immigration, and Racial Justice protests. It turns out that among the strongest predictors for the left and right among democrats and republicans is covid as well as immigration policies. Npr, looking at is troy by they noted that arizona had the dubious mark is one of the highest number looking at a story by npr, they noted that arizona has the dubious mark over the highest deaths in the nation. How is coronavirus affecting the race in arizona . Guest i was a quite a bit. Evaluations of donald trump and of the governor and mayors and politicians, it is largely driven by partisanship, as one might expect. The largest divide in terms of evaluating the president and his covid response, the largest partisan divide is for the president. So far it seems to be much more mixed on both sides of the aisle about doug ducey come with far more republicans having views or being in opposition. It turns out there is actually it is always nice to see in surveys broad scale consensus, and we see that evaluations of mayors, both republicans and democrats have really been quite supportive of local politicians and mayors response to the crisis. The state has gone up and down in numbers. We had a rough summer. The novice had gone down recently. They are back up again. Schools are opening and a lot of folks are feeling the fatigue. It is certainly an issue that is affecting our community, as it is affecting many communities. Host lets take a look at some things that President Trump said while making a pitch for latino voters at a rally in goodyear, arizona earlier this week. Here is President Trump. [video clip] pres. Trump the Latino Community in arizona and around the country, today i am announcing the American Dream plan. Over the next four years, the American Dream plan will bring within 2 million jobs to hispanic communities, create over a half million new hispanic whichSmall Businesses, will end up being Large Businesses if i know you, and i know you well, great natural business people, expand opportunities for federal contracting. It is going to be much easier to get some of those jobs, and increase access to capital by hundreds of billions of dollars. You are going to be in great shape. You are going to say, i like him very much. If sleepy joe is in, you will ask him and he wont have a clue. Or hispanic americans will be able to buy a home, to afford Quality Health insurance and raise their families in a beautiful, safe neighborhood. [applause] phonelets go to the lines and let the viewers join the conversation. We will start with darrell from athens, illinois, and darrell supports joe biden. Caller i would like to ask about Donald Trumps remarks he has made about quite a few groups that he needs to get elected. He has said things about the military. He has said things about john mccain. He has john mccains wife making commercials against him. He said things about mexicans that come to america, that they are murderers and rapists. He said the only ones that show up for immigration hearings of the low iq ones. He has gone out of his way to just about offend every Demographic Group he needs for only thing he has left himself appios fan club. Host go ahead. Guest very interesting question. Several remarks here. What we have heard from trump and a number of congressional candidates is perhaps the number we have seen them doing better in the state then we have normally seen or predicted. There is a common line and arizona politics and National Politics ticketed to barry goldwater. Libertym in defense of in moderation and pursuit of justice is no virtue. What is interesting about that comment is not actually speaking to the political extremism plaguing our country now nor the violence plaguing our country now, but rather speaks to a deeply libertarian philosophy is very much part in parcel of arizona politics since 1964. Withntly, to the present candidates such as jeff flake. The quote which is often misinterpreted, addresses this deep philosophical individualism, which is very much part of the state. What we have seen with the president s rhetoric is it is really not resonating with political moderates. Political moderates are overwhelmingly leaning towards both joe biden and much more so mark kelly. One andtion is a good the answer is the extremism, which i wouldnt even call ideological extremism, but the divisive rhetoric is one thing that has put this state of foreplay. Caller brought up former u. S. Senator john mccain and the fact that his wife has now endorsed joe biden. We have also seen other endorsements of joe biden from other republicans in arizona, like jeff flake. How do those type of established from an clinical party like thes and from a former publican senator theylf, jeff flake are having any effect in arizona . I think so, but i cant speak with actual data. Again we see a good number of moderate republicans have indicated they will vote for biden and kelly. I do think part of this reflects the unique nature of the gop within the state, this very deeply libertarian individualistic brand of conservatism. It is also often marked with a heightened degree of civility as well as bipartisanship. That is something that donald trump very much has an appeal to. These kind of endorsements from the right, particularly from prominent, iconic republican notres, while probably persuading liberals or democrats , do likely resonate with the sort of moderate, more traditional arizona republicans. You thet me show commercial that jeff flake has cut for joe biden that is showing it. [video clip] i have been voting since 1984 when i cast a vote for ronald reagan. I have been a conservative republican my entire life and never have voted for a democrat for president. This year, principal and conscience require me to do that. I am voting for joe biden good when you fill out your ballot, ask yourself who will restore decency to the white house . Will i be project on my children and grandchildren i voted for . Who will i be proud to tell my grandchildren and children i voted for . Leadership, integrity are values we cannot put aside when we cast our vote for president. If you hold on to these values, our country will be better for it, and so will our party. And dont let anyone tell you by casting your vote for joe biden you are somehow not being conservative. This year, the most conservative and you can do is to put country over party. That is what i am doing. I hope you will join me. Voting, lets of talk about how arizona votes. Has been doing vote by mail for nearly 30 years. In 2018, nearly 80 of the vote cast were mailin ballots. Goneas the mail in process in arizona . Considering the rhetoric we have heard from the white house about how mailin ballot team can become according to them rigged. How has the balloting gone in arizona so far . Guest to my understanding, it has gone quite smoothly. Arizona has an infrastructure well capable of dealing with large amounts of mailin ballots. Casthing like 88 of votes in the recent primaries were male and. Something like 80 were male ilin. It is a part of arizona politics. I have confidence it will work relatively smoothly. That is not to say we will necessarily know the results of the election right away, but it does seem that unlike other states, arizona does have a strong infrastructure in place to deal with mailin ballots. Host do we know how many people have voted early in arizona, because i see early voting has started on october 7, and the state does count it votes before election day . Do we know how early voting is going in arizona . Guest i dont know how many of the top of my head how many votes have been mailin. We will see the vast majority of votes being cast by mail. As a personal anecdote, not scientifically speaking, when one drives around to some and dries by one of the sites that processes mailin ballots, there is a lot of people. There are lines, and i do suspect many votes have already been cast. I dont foresee any real problems, at least that is the reporting on this issue. Host as we were sitting and talking about this, i looked it up on the u. S. Elections project. 2 million mailin ballots have been returned in election, andis that there been more than 3 million ballots requested, but of course all these numbers do not include maricopa county. We see that more than 3 Million People have requested mailin ballot and more than 2 million mailin ballots have come back in in arizona. Do arizonans have confidence in this mailin process . Weve heard a lot about mailin ballots from the president this year radar you seen with confidence in this process . Guest i do see quite a bit of competence, again because its not new. Its been happening for quite some time. The magnitude is likely to be different, but it is my understanding and how it has been reported in the state that it is likely to again work relatively well. That is not to say there wont hiccups,ps, but arizona is in a good position to account and be able to process the influx. Host lets go to the phone lines. Lets talk to larry who was calling from circleville, ohio and support President Trump. Good morning. Caller i support donald trump, and i feel the state of arizona up be supporting donald trump because of what hes done to keep Illegal Immigrants from coming across their borders with theof the drugs and all of problems they have with crime and everything that has come state. Into their i feel that trump has done such a great job of trying to attack the state of arizona from all that influx. People need to look at what donald trump has done state of america and what he has done in the three plus years versus what has taken have and the people who run the country before him. I think donald trump has done an excellent job as far as getting things done and supporting america and making it great again. The Foreign Countries and put them in check but china and russia and ukraine. He has done such a great job paired at think the people need to look at everything hes done versus what was done in the eight years ahead of him. Host go ahead and respond, chris. Guest thank you, larry. It is nice to hear when folks talk about a candidate rather than just simply the opposing candidate. We live in this time and what we call this negative partisanship, where it turns out a lot of voters arent motivated by what their own candidate does or advocates, but rather with the opposing candidate represents. What we often see is folks dislike oflots on a the opposing candidate rather than necessarily liking or in ownng or endorsing ones candidate. The country would be much better if voters were more attuned to the platforms of the candidates and what they stand for resident sort of what we have seen. Host one group we havent talked about is senior voters in arizona. Which candidate is doing better among seniors in arizona and why . Guest seniors, and especially white seniors, have certainly supported the president. We have seen those numbers flipping, largely in response to covid. It is not clear that this trend in take place, but by at biden and kelly have clear, decisive edge among seniors in the state. Who lets talk to derek, is calling from randalls town, maryland. Stown, maryland. Caller mick sally has been mcsing to lose like she ally has been waiting to lose like she did before. It dumbfound to be how the cubanamericans have sold themselves out. They forgot about their civil rights and Voting Rights and all beenreat things that have that have happened to them. They can go where they want to go they could go to any restaurant or college they want to go to. All of that was from africanamerican efforts and they stab africanamericans in the back and vote for a party that has a racist history. Myope that arizona and friends, the hispanics, will get it together. We have a good chance to take arizona, and i say that to all my minority friends out there. Get out and vote. The Republican Party has never been for you. You can follow it all the way back to when they were first founded. They called themselves the Democratic Party and they left 1965 at the Voting Rights bill. Dont let them you. Trump called you everything in the book. Trump called you everything in the book, either white trash or scum or whatever. Lets get it together. Thank you very much. Int what is the latino vote arizona and which way is it trending for the president ial election . Guest again, it is trending in the biden and kelly direction. If you take the 2018 race ally and kyrsten sinema, they went for kristin cinema and that was one of the reasons why in this case we saw wheret a blue shift kristin cinema was able to pick up votes in the days after the election. Host we talk about the president ial race, but there is a senate race going on with Martha Mcsally and retired astronaut mark kelly. What does that race look like in arizona right now . Guest this is an interesting senate race in a number of ways. The campaign has been really unique. Has a much larger over the past few months then biden. Part of that is due to kellys moderate nature. He doesnt have a political background. He is the husband of congresswoman gabby gifford, and himselfmuch packaged and even in the debates several weeks ago, we saw him pushing for more of the sort of middleoftheroad policy and distancing himself from the more extreme factions within the Democratic Party. The race has been quite unique. Endorsed andy has embraced the ideology of trump. It is actually sort of interesting, because Martha Mcsally was actually congresswoman here in tucson for two terms and clearly pivoted in this race and has very much followed the same campaign trajectory as the president. Hos