With states like texas and hawaii already surpassing their total of 2016. What you think that massive number of votes means . 2006, it maybe was not as interesting but we are talking a lot about it today. We are seeing a huge increase in voting by mail and early voting in person. 2016 we saw 41 of the population voting for election day. 17 by early in person voting. We are seeing another explosion beyond that in this election. We have already seen 92 Million People vote early this as of last night. We are going to see more before election day. Deservescdonald really credit for keeping these numbers which keep expanding. We will see on most 50 of americans voting by mail. The average for the 4 voting early. Just a little bit voting on election day. 23 or 25 . It means changes in states doing very different things. Some of them casting ballots in a new way. One of the thing to note is in the past a lot of votes and in person votes were very close to election day. This started early. As early as the method opened up, we saw lots of ballots coming in early, several weeks before. There are going to be problems with counting. Perhaps some issues and delays. But i do think we are going to run this election, we will see record turnout and we have seen lots of voting by mail and early in person voting. Host what are the driving forces behind the mailin voting, the early voting . Is it the coronavirus, a pushback to some of the critics of mailin voting . Guest i think it is the coronavirus. We have seen this trend so we would have expected some increase anyway. There is a substantial fraction of the populations of vote by mail. Western states have been voting by mail for a while. The coronavirus did really push some people to want to vote by mail. One thing we have seen is a partisan divide over voting by mail which we have not seen in the past. We have not seen voters saying they were going to vote differently by party. Republicans and democrats used to take advantage of weather system whatever system of your we are seeing more democrats saying they are going to vote early by vote by mail. The numbers of people in the states that have those registration numbers bear that out. Democrats are voting earlier that way. We are seeing republicans voting more in person and no wings knowing what is calm what is to come is hard to tell. Have did most states that mailin or early voting, did they start counting ahead of time . Guest no one officially starts counting but many states do some preparation and even putting ballots into a machine and toulating an almost ready press the button to get a final number. That is an issue in this election we have not talked much about before. Some states with the volume of absentee ballots we are seeing this time will benefit from being able to start the process earlier. Some of the states we are looking at on Election Night that we might worry about getting a result are states that dont have very much time. There are other factors, whether they count locally or centrally, but again, states that have an earlier time to begin the processing and almost the counting of those ballots are going to be in a better position than states that dont. Host we would love to hear your experiences. We are talking with john fortier with the Bipartisan Policy Center about election day, really voting as well. If you voted early in person, here is the line to use. 202 7488000. If you are voting on election day, 202 7488001. If you have already sent in your ballot, a mailin ballots or absentee, 202 7488002. If you dont plan to vote, 202 7488003. We will get to your calls momentarily. We have not talked about polling places but i want to read you a piece from the wall street journal. Way,ng sites brace for a they say that counties have been grappling with in person voting during the pandemic. Many encourage early balloting on election day but some are adding early voting days and locations. Some counties have turned to unconventional locations like sport stadiums that can maintain social distancing even with big groups. They write that changes have resulted in the changes from 2016 and the total number of polling like pieces election day polling locations on election day wisconsin and michigan, analysis from data of secretaries of state and county officials. The journal also obtained data from counties in florida and georgia. What are you anticipating in terms of, you said you. 25 of the vote you said you thought 25 of the boat would happen that day. Will we see long lines that day . Think the message for people this election to try to cast their vote in an earlier way is a good one. We are probably not going to see the volume of people voting on election day that we have in the past. We dont have the final turnout. We expect it will be high than we have seen in history. Again, so many people have voted by mail or early in person that the numbers may be down. It is still worth your while to make a plan to vote. At this point you are probably either going to hand in your ballot if you have a mail ballot. Hopefully it will be to a dropbox or some location. There are a few places that still allow sunday or even monday early voting. Are going to go on election day. I do think we are going to see less volume on election day. Again there are some factors that the states are facing. Sometimes a polling site might not be able to accommodate as many people with coronavirus restrictions. Between how balance much volume we see coming in on election day versus the issues that the states are having trying to process voters given our coronavirus situation. Host calls next for john fortier. Sophia is first in the bronx and voted early in person. Welcome. Caller yes, good morning. I have a question for you. I will try to be faster. I have a comment for mr. Fortier. I will put forth my question to you. What happened to Steve Scalise . Two weeks ago on friday which i missed it, if you can before the end of the program, if you could let me know what happened, why i do not see him. That was the question for you. Host the address that briefly and go on with your comment. Our colleague Steve Scalise is currently on administrative is on steve scully administrative leave. Caller thank you. That means he will come back. Host it is possible. I dont have all the answers, but yes. Caller thank you. Because i love him so much. For mr. Fortier, i wanted to say this. 50 years ago, i used the same word. The first word i have is americans are stupid. I am a conservative republican. More thanen does win 150 million votes, im going to believe what they say the , they say0 years ago we are stupid for this because it is too much. Thank you, thank you. Host any response . Know obviously, we dont the Election Results and the early voting is suggestive that democrats have gotten not there in the early period. But we do not know what is left. We know republicans are voting more in person. Im not going to say anything about the final results other than i think we will have record high turnout and it will look different because many more people will have voted before election day than on election day. Host you point out that donald trump, one of five president s to win the presidency without winning the popular vote. Those president s, John Quincy Adams in 1824, 1876 rutherford b. Hayes, benjamin harrison, 1888, george w. Bush in 2000 and donald trump had 2. 8 million votes more than Hillary Clinton in 2016. From philadelphia she is going to vote on election day. Sectionit was the only in 2016 that voted for trump. I voted in person. I was born in 1932. I will be 88 years old at the end of the month, the 28th of november. Mail and iust the want to vote in person. Trust i live in a democratic city and state. Trusteve you, i dont anyone so that is why i am voting in person. Thank you very much. Host clearly a lot of people are trusting mailin, absentee and early voting. Guest yeah. A trend. Obviously our country has different states in different places. In recent years we have United States out west almost 100 voting by mail. Other parts of the country are looking more traditional with most voting on election day. I see the trains that many people are voting very early this time. The trends. Some have decided they want to vote either early in person or on election day. You are very likely to have the same polling site as you usually do although you might want to check that with your registrar of voters. There will be plenty of options to vote on election day even at this late time. Those are options many people are going to take advantage of all three of those options. Host one of several articles you were quoted in, this is a good news story. Voters turn out early in historic numbers. With us this morning, you are cautionary with your not to read too much into what those numbers possibly could mean. How early on Election Night do you think we could begin to see a sign of what the early votes of this massive amount of early voting is meaning . Guest i do think because of the large number of people voting early, also all the changes that we have made in states to the elect tour system and covid, electoral system, we will have more issues. That is not maybe will not have an accurate count, and i believe we will, but there are some states that are going to have a hard time putting out provisional results on Election Night or the day after. Resultss else final never come out until at least a week or sometimes 30 days after the election. The question is what is the margin of victory on Election Night. If we see a big margin for one of the candidates over the other, we could easily have enough states called by the networks and we know the winner on Election Night as we usually do. But if it is closer, we can see because of certain states waiting, and i do think pennsylvania may be one of those. Michigan is another that might take longer. We may wait a few days. If it is close like it was in aorida where there is recount, we could wait a long time. I think we could know at any time but there is more pressure on the system this time to be able to process those ballots in a way that gets us closer to being able to call results on Election Night so we will just see whether we are able to call it on Election Night or whether we will have to wait a few days. Either way voters should know what the process is going to go forward either way. Host do you think that this massive amount of early and mailin voting is a change for good, not just a covid effect . That from here on out most americans will vote early or vote by mail . Guest we have seen the numbers go up a selection. More modest increases each election. Voters tend to like the change. I think you will see whether voters like their experience. Levels i do expect a high of vote by mail and early in person voting after this election, much higher than 2016 going forward. We might see a drawback in 2024 under nonemergency situations. I think we will set a higher baseline where many more people are voting before election day in the future. Host lets hear from stephen in lexington, kentucky who voted early. Caller thank you for taking my call. I voted in person and early. I was surprised at how quick and efficient it was. I was worried that there would be large crowds and i would be waiting a while. My area got it cleared out and very proficient and quick so i was very impressed. If i was going to vote by mail, since the post office has been having problems that my ballot was not going to be in person so that is why i decided to vote in person. Map a question . May i ask a question . Host yes. Caller so, hypothetically we do not figure out who wins on Election Night, can one candidate say im just going to take this victory and go with it, can they do that . Can they announce themselves the winner themselves and just continue on . Host john fortier . Guest there are several things to consider. First of all in terms of when the election is resolved, there are different ways of thinking about it. We often have, calls made by the networks or other press organizations based on very serious information, not just exit polls but primarily on results and what the margin is. Those are not official results. The numbers you see on Election Night or a few days after our writing counts are running counts. Other states may be taking longer for those things to come in. Some days after in some states, a little bit longer. In other states, there is an official certified account. There could even be recount that extend those counts longer. We are not getting the final results absolutely counted down to the last vote for quite a while. That does not mean we will not know who the winner is. As we are question of could somebody say they are the winner, there is a process and we are going to resolve the election. There is an Electoral College process where you will have the electors casting their ballots this year. Congress counting in january. And then a new president at the beginning of the second term beginning in january. Just because the candidate thinks they are ahead, does not mean the process will certify them. I expect we will have a clear winner that everyone can see at some point. How quick that is depends on how big margin is and how quickly the votes are counted. The official results of the states are not going to be known for a while. The official Electoral College process takes longer as well to really make a president later in january. Host you will talk about the Electoral College in our next segment. We are here with dominic. For those who are not planned to vote this year, 202 7488003. Good morning, dominic. Tell us why you not voting this year. Caller the reason im not voting can you hear me . Host yes. Caller the reason im not voting is because my vote is wasted. I live in new york and i vote for a republican president this year. No republican president has won new york since reagans landslide. Senator Chuck Schumer wins every year. I think it is a joke when i hear biden talk, 47 years in politics. What has he ever done . All he does is make promises. My vote is wasted. Going to go for a republican president , new york will never elect a republican president. They have done it once only. Host john, do you think that dominics vote is wasted . Guest i dont think so. It is probably a rare experience for republicans to win in new york at the president ial level. There are other races on the ballot and the ballot could also go a federal state and down to the local level. There are other races that might be more competitive. I also think even if we had a system of the National Popular vote, if you are on the losing side, some people would say your vote is wasted because the president is in one party and you did not get any share of that. It is still important to put your ideas into the political process. Make your voice heard. It may not always make a difference in the particular state youre in. But it is you being part of the process. Again, there are many races that you may affect with your vote, not just the president ial. Host in arizona, cheryl, good morning. Cheryl is voting by mail. Caller hi. I am voting by mail because it is convenient and easier. When i lived in california, i helped with the election but i am older now and im not helping. Economynted to say our has the fastest growth in u. S. History. Growth. In the last five months, we have jobs. 4 million jobs, new so vote trump. Host cheryl in arizona. Votes, york times tracks they had 92 million so far in person. 33 million so far. Really 58 million voted so far by mailin ballots. That is 65 of the total of 2016. Some of the robots encountered along the way. We have heard from some states requiring notaries in some states. What other states are having some issue with early in person or early mailin voting . Guest we see some states making some dramatic changes. I am not sure we are going to know how it all went until we look a few months later i got the process back at the process. It is true that voters may like these two options voters that are new to voting by mail like these new options, voters may not know where to go so those are some issues out there. There are disputes between the parties as to what changes we should make for the coronavirus. There have been a number of lawsuits asking for longer deadlines for ballots to be allowed instead of them being allowed on election day or wired on election day required on election day. A number of those were struck down by the supreme court. We have seen dramatic change and some of that is differences thaten Political Parties set what they think the best mode of voting is for this election. Wherever you are there are a lot of options and there are still options for you if you have not voted. Even under these circumstances, it is being administered very well as far as we can tell. I encourage you to take advantage of those options, whatever they may be. Host thats go to hamburg, pennsylvania to lori voted early in person. Caller i have not voted yet. Im sitting here, i have my mailin ballot. Meas going to take it with and vote in person. My plan was to mail it. Our boxes are open until 8 00 on Election Night. Im going to fill it out. Im not going to mail it anymore. I am afraid something will go wrong if i handed in hand it in. I will say it is important for everybody to go out and vote. No matter how they are going to vote. We have seen historical turnout. This is good. It is good for our democracy. Constantly he casts doubts on anything that he can to the american people. He doubts our country and that is what is happening today. Where divided to a point there may not be a way back, but we have to find that because it is up to us. Things,ate, we build and then we pass it on. We take things seriously when we vote and you need to vote for the person who you think will check your rights and your childrens rights and who will lead us to a greater future. No matter what, after this pandemic there is going to be another pandemic. It is going to happen because pandemics have happened throughout history. It is how the people deal with it that makes a difference. Host lori in pennsylvania. John fortier . Guest on the point of voter turnout, i think there is enthusiasm and some of that is very strong feelings for and against donald trump. I think that is driving turnout. Her second point was that she was going to drop off her ballot. That was her plan. I do think that is something to s