Brookings institution. Good morning. Director im the for the center of United States europe. At the bookings institution. Today to be d chairing this important discussion on election 2020 and implications for u. S. Foreign policy. Obviously over the weekend there as been some rapid developments. There is now a president elect joe biden, after a pretty few days, i think, for everyone, an election that close for many days but now we have a clear winner. So we have a terrific panel this morning to discuss not so much election but looking forward to next year to see what the are for u. S. Oreign policy, for international order, and to talk about some of the nuances from they may and what mean, particularly that trumpism is alive and well even though did not receive a second term and that the senate hands of l be in the republicans. Edelman. Ve eric osnos, tamara wit teo s, at the brookings institution, and victoria all of them have served in either served in senior positions in government which i wont go into t the moment, but you can rest assure that they come equipped with decades of experience at highest levels, and evan has biden, a book on joe which is titled sorry, the escapes at the moment. But joe biden, life and times it means for the 2020 election. If , lets start with you, we can. Joe biden has been around for a long time as we heard repeatedly from donald trump. Hes been in office or out of office for about 47 years. A long track record on u. S. Foreign policy, in some ways hes a very known quantity hes a bit of ys an enigma. Evolved a bit over time. Hes had debates about foreign which have been somewhat obscured by the trump show and any people in biden world were expecting a repudiation of donald trump, an overwhelming a tory that would send message to the world. He has won a clear victory but more close and more marginal than many people anticipated. He may well have a republican and he, of course, has said that working with rs, republicans, working with people on the other side of the aisle, contemplates of the first few days of his transition and the beginning of term, how do you think he sort of interprets the results week, particularly with the view to what it means as far Foreign Policy and further future of americas global role . Tom. Anks, yeah, its great to be with my colleagues up here and with all tuning in. Are look, i think there are, as mentioned, there are in some ways elements of joe bidens to his s approach diplomacy and domestic policy that we sometimes overlook or studied in detail until just now. Somecan help us anticipate of the things that i think were likely to see. Heretalk just for a minute about what i think we can broadly describe as an error of abroad. At home and important ts an defining piece of this, to understand the period of tructural and sustained hostility in the u. S. And in many of its relationships, which ill have implications but before we do that i want to talk about president elect bidens diplomacy because, when you talk to him about how whichnks about diplomacy, is something he cares a great deal about, hell tell you, that of a ws somewhat distinction between the way its conventionally practiced. He said to me at one point, look, sometimes diplomats get tired because ill say to them m not going to go into a room and say what you want me to say, the way you wrote it here ecause his basic view, and he would apply this in wilmington or in baghdad or in beijing, tell another person what their interests are. Thats his fundamental idea. Notion of their interests, and as he puts it, you know, in my experience generally not open to being persuaded that their own calculation is wrong. Show themave to do is the basic element of recognition, the facts that hearing. Youre listening with them. You dont have to pretend you if you can get them into a position that they can trust their own ability to alculate their interest youre starting over at an advantage over if you come in and tell them why they are wrong. Of this, other piece thats meaningful is, Joe Biden Barack Obama actually had a very important thing that bound them together when they were the ticket. Her on oftentimes president s and Vice President tickets are chalked on marriages. In this case they had this thing, that tied them. In the his basic belief possibility of unification. That you could actually unify people but they used very to do it. Tools in president obamas case, as we he had a transcendent story. Literally his own personal story the power of his eloquence, of his political rhetoric, was he began this process f trying to restore an element of the american image, of american credibility, and that was his approach. You saw that in the significance of his speeches and so on. President elect biden has a different view. He does not pretend frankly that american t kind of story that can communicate what the future of the United States is likely to be. Is, in fact, i have the relationships. I have these kind of fundamental persontoperson contacts, and most of all, i believe that if first back to that principle, that you acknowledge that somebody elses interest thats egitimate, that the basis for a meaningful discussion. Briefly just very mention one other thing, which is, it is significant that he a lot of these people. George said at one point we used to have foreign leaders who went with joe biden for a long time, we would have foreign leaders come all the time to the senate and my job go around and introduce the foreign leaders. Over is senator here is senator so and so, then leaders would say hi, joe. They just knew him. Now, when oment like the United States frankly looks nfamiliar in so many ways now, in the nature of politics, the nature of our divisions, to our opponents abroad, an lement of recognizable ability is a political asset that i think we sometimes discount. Comments about all the various specific domains, china, europe, and elsewhere because my us going on ll get that and well come back to them q a. Re specifics during tom, back to you, i think. Evan. Nk you, amara, you served as Deputy Assistant secretary of state in the middle east in the first term of the Obama Administration. You had an opportunity to work with Vice President biden. Ell get into the middle east part of it later on, i think, in to the ussion but just question on his sort of how it might have changed following election of last week, what hes sort of thinking, you know thinking u think hes about the challenges hes facing in the world, in still a very country at home and if his Foreign Policy is like to be little different this week than maybe it would have ppeared like just before the election . I think that last one is a difficult question, but let me with the broader outlook question. That one thing weve seen from joe biden throughout his career, whether its in policy, Foreign Policy, an n politics itself, is ability to learn and grow and change. This is his not his first run you he presidency, and, know, across his career, i think, hes just gotten better better at what he does. Out about n pointed his determination to empathize out Common Ground, i elements of re practical diplomacy that will serve him very well. Hit got the background to the ground running, but the in, innge he faces coming january, is how much the ground as shifted since he was in the vice presidency. Thats very true in the middle historic e weve seen developments over the last decade. Some of which he was in office some of which he was not. Drew across the board. Politics has changed. Transatlantic partners are in a now than they were four years ago. Degree of s a uncertainty in Global Politics that i think has led a number of traditional partners to engage in over the course of administration and that. Not simple to unwind so i think his capacity to learn to grow is going to be put quickly. , very but i think hell probably move himself into some of the common hes found with partners in the past. Hether that is, you know, the iranian challenge on counterterrorism, on our sort of coalition of democracies across which is something he spoke about lot during the hard to see its put meat on the bones without those good conversations. Hear from them and to find that Common Ground. So no doubt there is a lot of thats been going on, but he will be reaching out and a lot of conversations. Hell want to hear it for himself. To, you know, hes not going be able to put these things on while he figures it out. Thank you. Tamara. Ou, thats fascinating. Eric, if we could turn to you next. Served in very senior positions in the pentagon and republican the administrations. What do you think mitch guess, the d, i Foreign Policy oriented senators thinking at the moment . 5050 y better than chance that they retain control of the Senate Following the january 5,georgia on we need to wait to see, of course, results but if youre looking at it now there is a pretty decent chance they emain in control, so will have control basically of the nomination process, oversight. Le obviously, legislation to pass, nd its been a pretty divided election. Weve already seen some senators come out and basically back trumps theory of the case. What do you think mcconnell and are of the other senators thinking and this is sort of a prospect for cooperation between administration and a Republicancontrolled Senate . Thanks, tom. Its great to be here with you, and with all my with whom i re, of unusual ties. Weve succeeded each other in a variety of positions in government. Tammys parents were exceedingly kind to me when i was an in turkey, and evans grandparents lived in the same grandparents did in manhattan. Its a great panel and im it. Lled to be part of look, the Republican PartyRepublican Party of ronald reagan, has been hattered, and its beyond recognition, in terms of its approach to National Security policy. I think for those of us who were i was rump republicans, part of two different groups of that ilk, that endorsed vice biden, we had hoped or, as you indicated, a bigger repudiation of trump and trumpism and we didnt get it. I think Vice President biden is win a pretty solid victory when all the votes are counted. A slightly to have higher margin than barack obama romney. Nst mitt but its still not the epudiation of trumpism that ight have served as a healthy cleanser of the republican tendency, particularly in the to enable president trumps worst instincts. Already in see that whats happened in the postelection period, when a of republicans in the senate have jumped like trained respond to tweets from donald jr. , et cetera, about his fathers totally cast cratic efforts to doubt on the results of the election, which i think is dangerous for our democracy. Person, its only one putin. S it might also benefit xi ping, so it might be more than one. What will happen in the senate . I think senator mcconnell, eader mcconnells instincts remain sort of traditional. International conservative internationalist republican. A longstanding relationship with Vice President biden. Instinct is going to want to try and be pragmatic, to get some things done. And i think, in fact, probably are already vicening to happen between president bidens folks and congressional staffers on the side. Ican so i think thats, you know, all to the good but leader mcconnell a very large challenge nd thats going to be that the Election Results are likely to be ratified in the minds of a umber of people that the problem was not the message, it was the messenger. A repudiation of trump, but not necessarily of trumpism. Hostility herefore, to trade agreements, hostility our alliances, are going to ticket to success in 2024. And that trump lane will be very rowded with a number of candidates and many of them are going to try and trump the soak win it over to and jr. And president trumps for their own andidacies by being obstructionists, by leading the resistance to a bind mcconnell will himself. Ugh road hell need some cooperation from he biden team helping him to manage it. I dont think it will be as big an issue on the confirmation for the et positions, but subcabinet positions, i think, that are open for confirmation, be a bigger battleground and that will cooperation on both sides, which would be good for country. Eric. Ank you, youve served in several administrations, in both parties Foreign Service officer, very senior levels, picking up left off, if were likely to see sort of a of trumpism in the Republican Party and in the senate, would you still have international elements, internationalist elements there and a vice who is sort of naturally kind to bipartisanship, what do you think the best prospects are to ort of recreate, if not the consensus, at least, by each party, americas leadership role internationally. Thanks, tom, first, its great to be with everybody on and fresh monday morning ith so many patriots who have served their country so well. Listen, biden came up along with most of the senior members of period where a the fundamental underpinning was that political fights ended at the waters edge. And when you went out into the world, you went out as a unified ideally a bipartisan front, and lk to allies adversaries alike about the hallenges and to represent the United States. I think that will be bidens reach out astry to mcconnells andhe traditional republicans, of his i think eric is that on the Foreign Policy and security side, we yet, what hell posture, what the younger folks will take from the foreign agenda of trump. I thought it was pretty throughout the even as some of in more trumpian republicans congress, supported punishing allies object trade side. Nobody joined this caravan of trump hostility e. U. As an o and the institution or towards allies in general, and over the period of the Trump Administration, this merica go it alone, america nilateralism did not have popular support. Public opinion polling for institutions like the u. N. Went this period and i think that reflects the fact that the people never really did buy that its better for us, take on issuesto like china, issues like the new security challenges artificial ch like intelligence by itself. If we could do it with allies cheaper d be better, persuasive for us, but secondarily doing it all alone on the American Farmer rather than on a broader coalition and it stands less of a chance for success. I think bidens instinct obviously will be to try to ebuild a traditionalist coalition for American Leadership there will be a demand on the republican ide for a more rigorous approach to some things. Particular. Than they may have seen from the bama administration, but as tammy said i think thats where president elect biden and his have evolved anyway. Hat its time to be far more organized, structured and rigorous, and strong as a community in the way e approach russia, china, and some of these other challenges authoritarians, who want to change the rulesbased system in favor. So i think hell make a strong effort. I just wanted to underscore a that evan said, as somebody, you know, who had traveling with biden and watching him work as a in the last in Obama Administration, not only does he start from the premise that you cant tell else what their interests are, he starts by what the understand other person on the other side of the table thinks their are. Rests and then what their political environment is. Maneuver e is room to is. Call the o try to a bettertor, to create outcome for both countries, and extremely entally in his approach. So just as the nation needs ealing i think he thinks the planet needs healing and democraticy that the community has got to come together in a strong way to challenges that we have. So i think hell start from that optimistic place. Do a lot of listening. I think hell be quite demanding, he wont want to these big challenges alone and hell want to help our allies in partners in asia, and in other parts of the world. Be a much it will more multilateral approach, but dont think hell be a pushover with allies either. Pick up on t something that both tammy and tory just talked about, which i important, but i want to put a slightly different it, which is, you know, tory was just talking about, you sort of uilding multilateral approaches, and tammy was talking about the our partnersome of and allies to engage in selfhelp. I agree with both of those but observations, but to remember its bigger than trump and biden. Or a lot of allies, they look back at the last 12 years including the obama years, and of retrenchment in leadership. Created at the vacuum by obamas arguably underreaction to what happened wonder if thisey is not just a transient phenomenon that trump something rather longer lasting. And so the challenge, i think, will face, as he attempts to address these issues that talking tory were about, is how credibly can he barack obama. Not im not just the second barack obama. Im just biden and im bringing a different approach and its which america will be more active than youve seen it be, not just in the last four but in the last 12 years. Nd i think thats going to be really his challenge. A great point. Ive long fought key political uestions about a Biden Administration, how is he to erent from trump but obama, getting a leverage on what it might be like, tomorrow, come in next on that. Before, of this course, but the way i try to think about it is, are there Key Assumptions or orthodoxies from the Obama Administration that you ifferent this time, know, and i guess, you know, you could address that in the or ext of the middle east more broadly, on other issues, but, you know what do you i guess maybe not shifts but debates what are the broader sort the of Foreign PolicyCommunity Around biden, about whether or be a ere should significant departure. Lines of what e