Transcripts For CSPAN Discussion On Middle East Policy Under

Transcripts For CSPAN Discussion On Middle East Policy Under Biden Presidency 20240711

Peace deals. Heres a look. Jerry good morning and welcome. Im pleased to welcome you all to todays event, election 2020, president elect joseph biden. Following a contentious u. S. Election, joe biden will be the next president of the United States. Leaders in the middle east have mixed emotions about that result, especially those who have prospered throughout Donald Trumps presidency. The entire region undoubtedly will be following the biden team closely as it articulates its policy leading up to the inauguration in january. While there is a theory that the new administration focused on domestic problems needs to push back against major challenges from china will want to put the middle east on the back burner but it is not clear they can succeed. Major questions about the u. S. Approach to the ongoing in conflicts in syria, tensions with saudi arabia and turkey and what to do about israel and the palestinians will confront Vice President resident elected biden whether or not he seeks president elect biden whether or not he seeks them out. First, i am pleased to welcome he president of nei. The president of m. E. I. And a leading scholar of middle east afarlse. In his academic work, paul has focused on issues of political change, transition and conflict, as well as regional and International Relations in the middle east region. Next i would like to welcome the senior fellow of the Turkey Program and senior fellow with neis frontier europe initiative. She has written extensively on u. S. Turkey relations, turkish domestic politics and Foreign Policy and the kurdish issue. Finally, i would like to welcome general joseph votel. He is a distinguished fellow at the middle east institute. And the president and c. E. O. Of Business Executives for national security, bens. He retired from the u. S. Army in 2019 after an illustrious 40 year career in which he held a variety of leadership positions including commanding general of the special Operations Command from 2014 to 2016 and of the Central Command from 2016 to 019. Todays webinar is the fourth in a series of events we have held. To elaborate on our perspectives on the challenges and opportunities for the next administration. For those interested in taking a deeper dive into our analyses, the full series is posted online. You can find a link to the book often the m. E. I. Web page and the chat box if youre joining us on zoom. I look forward to taking audience questions throughout zooms q a feature, which you can also find on your screens. For those calling in by phone or watching our panel on the live stream, you can ask a estion by emailing events mei. Edu. If you are having technical issues you can also use the email. Events mei. E dumbings. Events mei. Edu. Feel free to ask a question at any time. I will be looking at all your questions and will factor as many as possible into the discussions. With that, well begin. Ive asked each of our panelist to give a brief overview of their ideas to prompt this question. Our discussion. Let me begin with you paul. If you could provide a little bit of an overview as you see the region and over the next four years. Paul thank you, jerry. Its good to be with everyone and welcome the audience to this discussion. Let me say a few things leading up to the inauguration that should happen on january 20. One is the electoral event itself in the u. S. Resonates in the middle east. America has been the leading democracy in the world for two centuries and in the middle east since the late 19th century up until yesterday was still combating or struggleling over the issue of whats the best political system. Should it be a form of onarchical authoritarianism, or military authoritarianism, should it be an islamic system or should it be a democracy . These are real issues particularly among the populations of the middle east. President trump has been somewhat of an opponent of the institutions and values of democracy and a free press so there was a time when that american example was really taking a beating around the world but also in the middle east. I think the election of joe biden is somewhat of a restation of the course of democracy in the United States. T remains fragile but it gives encouragement to those in the middle east who believe that democracy is the future rather than authoritarianism or some sort of islamic government. Secondly i think it is important to note that obviously President Trump still has nine weeks left in his administration and might do dramatic things in the middle ast. This could relate to iran, whether it is more sanctions. Or some form of escalation. Could be sudden troop withdrawals from countries like afghanistan or iraq and syria. Or Something Else that we and hence joe biden might be met with more surprises a few weeks from now. Another factor is the senate looks to be under republican hands. It is likely to go in that direction but it is not certain. If the republicans retain control of the senate that means President Biden will have to find Common Ground with Senate Leadership certainly on some domestic issues. But probably on some Foreign Policy issues as well. Mr. Hensarling that will affect his Foreign Policy. Having said that, one notes also that the u. S. , two big picture issues, as you mentioned, jerry, the u. S. During this election cycle is going through a once in a century pandemic, the biggest Economic Contraction since the great depression, so much of the administration and the voters will be focused on domestic issues. When it comes to Foreign Policy issues, the middle east is in the back of the queue. There are some global Foreign Policy issues like going back into the Climate Change agreement, rebuilding trade p. A. C. s, rebuilding traditional allies in europe and asia and restoring americas presence in the u. N. And multilateralism and in a more direct sense a focus on competition with ussia and china. When you look at the Democratic Party platform, the middle east is the very last paragraph of the very last page. So maybe thats not a coincidence. So its not necessarily going to be a high priority. Having said that, the u. S. Has continuing and enduring interests in the middle east that have not changed much from obama to rump to biden. Those continue to be the free flow of energy from the region to Global Markets as well as general trade routes remaining open. It is continued focus on countering weapons of nilemass destruction, a continued focus on counterterrorism, as weapons of mass destruction, a continued focus on counterterrorism, as well as a Great Power Competition with russia and china. Those are not going away. The u. S. Might reduce its footprint in the middle east ut it is not turning away. In terms of policy there is some change but much ontinuity. The area where we might see the most changes between trump and iden is on the iran policy but obviously biden would want to go back or forward. Into the nuclear deal with iran. Would want to renegotiate some aspects of it. He certainly wants to get back into the general perspective of the Nuclear Agreement and get a negotiating track with iran. We can talk about that later. On israelpalestine, he welcomed the peace agreements between israel and three arab countries and would certainly want to encourage more. He will resume talks with the palestinian and israel there and press them to resume ilateral negotiations. On counterterrorism, there is no magic bullet, no secret sauce. There will not be any dramatic changes there unless trump implements them. On weapons of mass destruction he has a different approach to Irans Nuclear program. Iran has now much more Nuclear Material than it had before trump withdrew from the agreement. In a more general sense, i think the Biden Administration will foreground diplomacy and looking for solutions not just pressure. Solutions, not just pressure and threats. The Biden Administration will lean on allies and multilateralism, bringing more players around the table rather than going it alone. And i think a Biden Administration will foreground two things. One is sort of social health and economic issues. Because certainly the region is going through also a great pandemic and a great Economic Contraction. And i think a Biden Administration will be more interesting of that. And will be alert to socioeconomic issues. To end with this because i started with democracy as an important dynamic, the Biden Administration will foreground issues of human rights, civil society, political participation, Good Government and the right of people to express themselves, to choose their leaders, hold them accountable. It will do that in a diplomatic way. That will be back on the table with a Biden Administration. Those are my thoughts. Thanks, jerry. Jerry thank you, paul. Lets turn next to general votel. For his thoughts about one aspect that you touched on, paul, and that was the security and military environment that would include c. T. , that would certainly include our approach to iran. Afghanistan is also something that is on the front burner as far as the administration is concerned. Joe, if you could talk about how you see the Biden Administration developing on the military and security side. Joe i think the question at hand here is the future of u. S. Military presence in the egion. Let me talk about this. First is the notion of Ongoing Operations. What i am talking about is afghanistan, iraq and syria as a separate set. Afghanistan as everyone knows we are at a point here where there are ongoing reconciliation talks there, not progressing as fast as anybody would want them to do. But they are in process. This has been the object of President Trumps a strategy for the last three years, get to a reconciliation between the overnment and the taliban. What we have seen is some discussion of whether there might be an immediate withdrawal. Right now somewhere in the range of 5000 u. S. Troops on the ground, further reductions of this dependent upon progress in the talks but some indication from the Current Administration that by next spring it would again be it would be lower in terms of this. Also in consideration is the status of our natoled coalition. This is a consideration that needs to be looked at. And of course the longterm u. S. C. T. Interests in afghanistan. Afghanistan does remain a location where there is the presence of a number of terrorist organizations. So this would be something that we will continue to look at. Looking across at iraq and syria, here we see about the president same number of troops on the ground who are continuing to provide assistance to the Iraqi Security forces and Syrian Democratic forces. They continue the consolidation of the campaign against isis and continue to provide security in the areas in which we have had the greatest amount f influence. Also at stake is regional instability. We have to remember what brought us back to iraq in 2014 was the outflow of instability that came out of this region that impacted our interests in other areas. And imposed greater threats to the country. Iraq, of course, and to some extent the influence in syria is a leverage against iran and thats been an important consideration for us. And again, there are u. S. C. T. Interests here. Did this aspect of Ongoing Operations will have to be the second bin i would highlight is iran itself. Paul talked a little bit about this. The approaches of the Trump Administration and the Previous Obama Administration could not be more different. Pressure campaign versus focus on jcpoa and a more diplomatic open dialogue approach here. There are very significant differences. There has been a build up to ome extent of additional conventional forces and other forces in the region that are designed to support the Pressure Campaign. Sustainment of this comes at a cost to the readiness of our military forces and our desire to do things in other areas. Of course the recent agreements between israel and some of the gulf arab nations offers an opportunity here for more pressure against iran in the egion. This will be the second group of areas the administration will want to look at. Third will be power competition. As all of our viewers im sure are aware, Great Power Competition is the main element of our Current National defense strategy, maintaining our competitive advantage against china. Against great power actors such as china. This area has seen persistent encroachment from china, russia, from others trying to exert their own influences on the area. It goes without saying the iddle east will be an area where we will need to compete to one extent or another whether militarily or in one of the other domains of national power. Certainly an area we have to look at. That will mean looking at things like security assistance, etc. Assistance programs, Foreign Military sales, etc. In this area we have some of the largest programs within the u. S. Government that exist. Now the potential for f35s to go to some of the countries like the uae, this is an important consideration. For the new administration stepping into this first and oremost they obviously have to open it for a reasonable and inclusive transition. That has not materialized yet. Hopefully there will be an pportunity once we settled the politics of the current election. It will be important for the new administration stepping forward to be ready to articulate interests and priorities in the region. I think this will be what many partners will be listening for. First and foremost will be the Nuclear Proliferation interests here. As paul highlighted iran is in a different place now than they were a couple years ago. This will have to be addressed. Well have to look at that. Second will be protecting the homeland, our concern of terrorist organizations in the rea. Preserving our influence in the region, this will be part of the competition. As we confront other actors preventing instability from flowing out of the region, preserving access to resources for us and for some of our artners. These will be interests the new administration long, enduring interests the administration will have to address. As paul indicated and i do agree, there will be a heavy emphasis on the diplomatic side. I expect and strongly encourage they talk to partners in and out of the region and return the dialogue to something more normal and more expected of u. S. Interaction in the region. This will be important in reassuring our partners in and out of the region of our strategic reliability. There is an element of continuity in our approach and their considerations will be brought into this. It is important the new administration not dismiss what has happened. There are elements to build upon from a security standpoint. Certainly the fact the taliban and the government of afghanistan are talking to some extent is something that ought to be built on and its a fact of the region. The death of soleimani came largely as a result of his own malfeasance over a long period of time. This sent a strong message to the region and may offer an opportunity for the new administration to leverage that as they look to the new different or new approach owards iran. The open normalization of relations does provide an opportunity to build on with this. This is, regardless of how you particularly view this, this is does have a stabilizing effect on a region that struggles with stability. So it should from a security standpoint, should be something we build on. Finally, we have had success in our c. T. Campaigns. Both against al qaeda and against isis. Neither of these groups are completely gone and they can come back but the approaches we have taken and the work that has been done has kept them well suppressed and kept them off of our shores. And largely off of that of our allies. We need to build on these sex r successes weve had in the past. Jerry, ill stop there. Jerry thank you so much, joe. Our next urn to speaker to talk about how turkey fits into this larger picture that paul and joe have lined out. Turkey is clearly going to be an important player on many of these issues including energy, the whole issue of the region, broader relationships in the region, civil conflict and a number of tates in the region as well as the challenges of the u. S. Turkey relationship itself. Please. Thank you. Good to be with you this morning. Ill start with the loss for the turkeyu. S. Relations. There is a lot of anxiety in the outcome of the u. S. Elections. Resident erdogan was among the first world leads that are congratulated president elect biden. You look at the Trump Administration. While trump could not fix all of our problems, erdogan could still pick up the phone and reach to a u. S. President directly to ask for favors. And President Trump went the extra mile to shield erdogan from congressional sanctions over turkish purchase of the russian x400

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