Transcripts For CSPAN Federal Reserve Chair Powell News Conf

CSPAN Federal Reserve Chair Powell News Conference July 11, 2024

To the economy. Today my colleagues on the foc and i kept Interest Rates near zero and maintained her sizable asset purchases. These measures along with our strong guidance on Interest Rates on our Balance Sheet will ensure that Monetary Policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy until the recovery is complete. The path of the economy continues to depend sidibe drama course of the virus but a resurgence in recent months and covid19 cases hospitalizations and deaths is causing great hardship for millions of americans and displaying on economic and cavities. Following a short rebound of economic at tivoli last summer at the pace of their coverage is moderated in recent months with the week is concentrated in the sectors of the economy most affected by the resurgence of the virus by greater social distancing. Household spending on Services Remain low especially in sectors that require people to gather closely including travel and hospitality. Household spending on goods is moderated following earlier large gains. In contrast the housing sector is more than fully recovered from the downturn supported in part by low mortgage Interest Rates rates. Business investments in manufacturing production have also picked up. The overall recovery in Economic Activity since last spring is due in part to federal stimulus payments and expanded Unemployment Benefits which have provided essential support for many families and individuals. The recently enacted Coronavirus Response and relief act will provide additional support. Overall Economic Activity remains at the lowest level before the pandemic in the path ahead remains highly uncertain. As with the well economic at to be the pace of improvement in labor market has slowed in recent months. Employment fell by 140,000 december and is continued gains in Many Industries are outweighed by significant losses in industries where the resurgence of the virus has waived further activity. Particular the hospitality sector lost half a million jobs largely from restaurants and bars. An employment rate remains elevated at 6. 7 in december and participation in the labor market is notably below prepandemic levels. Although there has been much progress in the labor market since the spring millions of americans remain out of work. The economic downturn has not fallen equally on all americans and those least able to shoulder the burden is then the hardest hit. Particular the high level of joblessness has been especially severe for lowwage workers in the Service Center and africanamericans and hispanics. The economic dislocation has upended many lives and created great uncertainty about the future. The pandemic has left a significant imprint on inflation. The following large to clients in the spring of Consumer Prices ticked up over the summer but have level leveled out more recently. For those sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic prices remained particularly soft. Overall on the 12 month basis inflation remains below are 2 below objective. While we should not underestimate the challenges we currently face several developments point to improved outlook for later this year through sufficiently widespread vaccinations what enables us to put the pandemic of kindness and return to more normal Economic Activity. Meantime continued observance of social distancing measures in Wearing Masks will help us reach that whole has soon as possible. Fiscal policy will help households in this has is whether the downturn as well as lasting damage to the economy that could impede recovery. Edition as weve seen since last summer the economy has proven more richly than expected in part reflecting the adaptability of households and businesses. Finally Monetary Policy is playing a key role in supporting the recovery and will continue to do so. The feds response to this crisis has been guided by a mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American People along with our responsibilities to promote stability in the Financial System. Today we unanimously reaffirmed her longer rankles and policy strategies as we typically do each january. As we said in a statement we view employment as a broadbased inclusive goal. Ability to achieve maximum employment in the years ahead depends importantly on having longerterm employment expectations at 2 rate as the committee reiterated todays policy statement with inflation running consistently below 2 we will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 for some time so that inflation averages 2 over time and longerterm Inflation Expectations remain well anchored at 2 . Expect to make and accommodate his stance in Monetary Policy until employment and inflation outcomes are cheaper the gratuitous rates we continue to expect they will be appropriate to maintain the current zero to one quarter target branch for the funds rate is the labor Market Conditions have reached maximum employment and inflation is at 2 on track to moderately exceed 2 for some time. In addition we will continue to increase our holdings for treasury by 80 billion. Month and life 30 billion front until substantial further progress has been made for maximum price stability goals for the increase in our Balance Sheet since last march has materially use financial predictions and was providing substantial support of the economy. The economy is a long way from her appointment and is likely to take time for substantial progress to be achieved. Our Forward Guidance with the federal funds rate along with their Balance Sheet guidance would sure that they Monetary Policy remains accommodative as a recovery ties the path of the federal funds rate in Balance Sheet to progress toward reaching our employment and inflation goals progress towards our goals would slow the guides would convey her attention to increase policy accommodations through lower expected path in the federal funds rate in the higher expected path of the Balance Sheet. Overall or Interest Rate and Balance Sheet tools are providing powerful support of the economy and will continue to do so. We have also taken action to more directly support the flow of credit and economy deploying or emergency lending powers to an unprecedented extent enabled in large part by financial backing to support congress and the treasury. Although the cares act facilities are no longer open to new activity no other facilities remain in place. To conclude we understand that her of actions affect families and businesses across the country but everything we do is we do isnt serviced or public mission. We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and help assure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible. Thank you and i look forward to your questions. Thank you. Thank you for taking our questions. I wondered if you would first react to the stocks this week and secondarily you and your colleagues have repeatedly said that you dont use credential tools as they find it defense. Im wondering what your plan is if you see some of large stability risk emanating from an onbase Financial Sector in the coming months especially as it relates to activity and what you see as the situation there. On your first question i dont want to comment on a particular company or todays market activity are things like that. Its not something i would typically comment on. In terms of Macroprudential Policy tools as you know no doubt we rely on this macropotential policy does particular the stress test and the elevated levels of liquidity and capitol and also resolution planning that we impose on large financial institutions. We dont use time variant testis do and we think its a good approach for us to to use one set her eyes on because we dont really think we would be successful in every case in picking the exact right time to intervene in the market. You really asked about the nonbanks in the nonbank sector. We monitor financial conditions vary broadly and while we dont have jurisdiction over many areas in the nonbank or other agencies do so we do coordinate to the Financial Stability Oversight Council counsel and with other agencies who have responsibilities for nondank supervision and in fact as you know in the last crisis the Banking System held up fairly well so far and the dislocation that we saw from the outsized economic shock of the pandemic appeared in the nonbank sector so right now we are engaged in carefully examining and understanding and thinking about what in the nonbank sector will need to be addressed in the next year or so. Thank you. Thank you so much chair powell. Have a question on fiscal policy. Last year you consistently said the economy needs more fiscal support and i believe when the 900 billiondollar package was approved in december we have now a new president and a new congress and a weakening shortterm outlook they do believe the economy still needs support on the fiscal side and in what areas . I guess i would start icing the fiscal response we have seen to this downturn has been strong and i think we can say now its been sustained after the passage of the most recent act in late december and thats really a key reason why their cover has been the strongest its been. Fiscal policy has been essential and we look back on the history of this period will see a strong and sustained fiscal policy response. I would add as i mentioned we are a long way from a full recovery. Something like 9 Million People remain unemployed as a consequence of the pandemic. That is as many people as lost their jobs at the peak of the Global Financial crisis in the great recession. The path ahead is still uncertain so with that said the judge month how much to spend in what way is really one for congress and the administration and not for the fed and these discussions are going on right now. There is a discussion right now those precise questions and that is appropriate but not for us to play a role in talking about specific policies. Yankee. Steve liesman. Mr. Chairman. I wonder if i could followup on the question. I understand you addressed issues of valuations to a macroprudential policies but there is a range of assets from bitcoins to Corporate Bonds the stock market in general to some of these more specific meter a crisis in stocks. How do you address the concerns that asset purchase at zero to straights are fueling the bubble that took part in economic fallout . Let me provide a little context. The shock from the pandemic wasnt precedented both in its nature and its size and the amount of unemployment that it created and the shock to the Economic Activity. Theres nothing close to it in modern economic history. Our response was really to that and we have done what they could first to restore market function and to provide a bit of relief then to support the recovery and hopefully we will be able to do the third thing which is to avoid longerrun damage to the economy. Our role assumed by congress as maximum employment and stable prices and looking after Financial Stability. In a world where almost a year later we are still 9 million jobs at least thats one way of counting it can be counted higher than that short of maximum employment and people out of the labor force the real Unemployment Rate is close to 10 if you include people in the labor force. Very much appropriate that Monetary Policy be a common due to support maximum employment and price stability which is getting inflation back to 2 and averaging 2 over time. On matters of Financial Stability we have a framework really dont look at one or two things. We have made the framework public after the financial crisis so we can be held accountable and that things that we look at our esight asset prices and leverage in the Banking System and the nonBanking System which is to say corporate and households and we look at funding risk. If you look across the range of readings they are each different but we monitor them carefully and i would say finances debility and vulnerabilities overall are moderate. Our overall goal is to ensure that the Financial System itself is resilient to shocks of all kinds that its strong and resilient than that includes not only the banks that money market funds and all different kinds of nonbank financial structures as well. So when we get to the nonfinancial year we dont have jurisdiction over that so i would just say however there are many things that go in as you know to setting asset prices so if you look at where its been driving asset prices in the last couple of months it isnt Monetary Policy, its expectation of vaccines and also fiscal policy. Those are the news items that have been driving asset purchases, sorry asset valleys in values recent recent months. No Monetary Policy does play a role there but thats how we look at it and i think the connection between low Interest Rates and asset values is probably something that is not as tight as people think because a lot of different factors are driving asset prices at any given time. If you dont mind mr. Chair do you rule out or see as one of your tools in the toolkit the idea of adjusting Monetary Policy to address asset values . As you know that is one of the very difficult questions and all of Monetary Policy and we dont rule it out as a theoretical matter but we clearly with two macroprudential tool supervisor tools and other tools rather than Monetary Policy in addressing Financial Stability issues. The Monetary Policy strengthens Economic Activity and job creation through fairly well understood channels and a Strong Economy is actually a great supporter of Financial Stability. That will mean and strong wellcapitalized institutions and households will be working so we know that. We dont understand the tradeoff between, the sense of it is would you raise Interest Rates and thereby tighten financial conditions and reduce Economic Activity in order to address asset doubles and things like that . Will that even help . Bullet cause more damage . I think thats unresolved and is something we look at is not theoretically ruled out but not something we have ever done and not something we had planned to do. We would rely on macropotential and other tools to deal with Financial Stability. Back thank you. Michael derby. Thank you very much. How do you determine whether it will be tampering how much inflation is the fed willing to tolerate before it acts to restrain price pressures . On inflation a couple of things that are worth mentioning. One is just that we know we measure inflation on a trailing 12 month basis and has we lap the end low inflation readings of march and april of last year we will see it move up a few pence. This is just the effects and thats a transient thing we think will pass. Theres also the possibility of forecast that as the economy fully reopens there will be an approach to spending because people be enthusiastic that the pandemic is over potentially that could. Some upward pressure on inflation. Again we would see that as something likely to be transient and not to be very large. In both cases we dont see those as either lasting or particularly large so the way would react as we need to be patient and not react if we see small and what would we view as likely transient effects on inflation. I think it helps to look back at the inflation dynamics that the United States has had for some decades and noticed that there has been a significant disinflationary pressure for some time for a couple of decades but inflation has averaged less than 2 for quarter of a century and the inflation dynamics with a the low persistence of inflation is very much intent. Those things change over time and when to stand inflation dynamics evolve constantly over time but they dont change rapidly so we think its unlikely anything we see now would result and you know troubling inflation. What we said as we like to see below 2 run moderately above 2 for some time. We have not adopted a formula. We are not going to adopt a formula. We use a policy rules and formulas and everything we do. Consult them constantly but we do not set policy by them, we do not do that. Youre going to preserve an element of judgment and again we will seek inflation moderately above 2 for some time. We will show what that means i get inflation above 2 , the way to achieve credibility on that is to actually do it. So that is what we are planning on doing. Suspect thank you, rachel siegel. Suspect thank you for ta

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