Lets turn to you across the gulf in the position that they may be having different reactions. They may have taken this agreement. How does it impact their relations with the u. S. And iran and their identity identity in a clear arm rate issues related to this what are your thoughts on the reactions and actions . I look out at the audience and i see so many friends have told me that i have been doing this for too long. I want to start off in all of the years that i have been living in and writing about the middle east a recently learned that the fact that i want to start with discussion by just leaving it with you. Islam make law provides which is levied on the nonbelievers in an Islamic Community. One of the act acts consolidating their control over arabia tack in the early years in the 20th century by the king was to levy a the nonbelievers and to me if you want to understand the collective attitude about shia, that tells you what you need to know. Keep that in mind as we go through the rest of the discussion. Last fall, i attended these advanced consecutive days. On the first they were for merck officials from the Defense Department and the National Security council. And basically all of them said the same thing. We, the United States, have an unshakable no doubt about it commitment to the security and protection of our friends in the gulf and you find it in all of our doctrines in the Posture Statement in whatever you want to read become of the the committee called for a meal defense review and all the documents were turned down in washington. This was the gospel according to us. You would have thought at some point they were talking about israel. This was the general saying you can take this to the bank which became a sort of quote. The next day i went to a different one in which the participants were in the region and it became apparent that they had heard all of this. They had run over and they didnt believe it. It was a fundamental dissidence between them and us. There were others in the gulf that were indeed a preemptive about the way things were going into the probable with a possible course of the discussions with iran. Now the members collectively commanded doctor anthony i will wait for you to shoot me down on this, the country is collectively have decided to believe that whether they really do or not, you know what they tell each other over coffee at three in the morning or scotch at three in the morning, i dont know. And they are not going to tell me anyway. But beginning with capitated in the summit in may camp david in the summit in may could see that theyve made a decision that the iran deal was going to be done and they were not going to do a full on this. They need us more than we need them and that is clear especially because of the new realities in the market but only because of the new realities of the market. And there was a joint statement. In the second week of may they said that they all recognize that a wellcrafted agreement with iran could be beneficial to the security throughout the region. And thats why the statements that they issued last week and recently when the secretary was there was not a surprise. Now that the deal is done they simply re iterated the position that they have taken knowing that it was going to be done. It seems to me what happened is that countries have decided that that issue is behind them so they will take the United States at its word for all of these new security arrangements that weve committed ourselves to the first manifestation is a patriot sale in saudi arabia which came out not long after. And they are going to work with us the best they can and better with each other to try to come front some of the problems in the region. Some of them are feeling much better and they are the ones that matter the most. They are feeling better about the situation. I dont know whether theyve really turned the corner but that deadly destructive stalemate that followed the onset of the Bombing Campaign in march now seems to have been broken with the retaking of the airbase to the north and the return of the Vice President in the fourth, and you can now see the possibility of the very least, finally getting back to the negotiating table in yemen. You also see it in that reinforce attitudes about syria. I dont want to get into a turf war. I dont think that was a coincidence that he suddenly showed up. We are all familiar with the link they provide between the golf and iran. I dont know what they said. They havent talked to me since he was the ambassador here in washington 20 years ago. But all of a sudden, it was full of airplanes going here and there, and you can see i think what i would describe as a sort of collective waking up. Lets work with the americans and with each other to address these whether they can get their act together, i dont know but they certainly are going to have the military equipment and capabilities to do what they think they need to do. And the american commitment i just read this morning what were you reading in the press that pulls all this stuff together. Finally let me say one of the arguments bandied about in the United States during the discussion about the treaty mostly raised by people who in my opinion dont fundamentally understand the golf or saudi arabia was that the treaty would set off a Nuclear Arms Race in the golf. I dont believe for one minute that thats true. And ive been writing this until people are bored with my writing it for more than a decade and my reasoning hasnt changed. It is true that the countries have a stated commitment some were acting on to create a Nuclear Powered. And they have a very big plans. And they need Nuclear Power because they are burning as much as 30 of their own oil. Saudi arabia matters the most on this subject. The self preservation of the state have decided and recognized. They cant do that as a confrontational state which they free and give the People Services and dont fulfill their aspirations for a better life. The house has committed itself to a future of full integration with the global economy. There is a reason why the biggest Foreign Investment plans and operations in saudi arabia last year with the chemical and electric not to say nothing of the candy company. They dont want to be the north korea of the golf. They understand perfectly well that position as a full partner in the world and the commitment to surpass germany of extra oh chemicals cannot be fulfilled with their Nuclear Outlaws and therefore they wont do it. Thats my opinion. Lets turn to turkey. Theres a lot going on internally and on the borders focusing a bit on the nuclear deal with iran and what is the spectrum of the opinion they are and how does the government see it and what are the pros and cons. How might it affect turkish government policy. His back he mentioned if you want to understand the saudis and if you understand turkish politics coming come you have to understand the kurds. So from the domestic policy that is the key to understanding the behavior. On the nuclear deal, they share the western objectives on the Nuclear Program but it has promoted an engagement instead of isolation against sanctions and that is why in 2009 and 2010 back in the old days when done Foreign Ministers worked into turkey wanted to play bridge between the west and iran. They voted against sanctions in the United Nations and turkey is happy about the deal. The first reason is economic. Its a huge market for the turkish groups and providing the trade agreement with iran and the close energy ties with iran services for turkey. And turkey has been mobilized to start investing so thats the opportunity for the turkish business. But also they have an object if to a nuclear iran arguing that that could change the regional balance of power. So that is in the policy and thats why business organizations, pretty much everyone is quite happy about the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions. But they have strategic concerns about iran. And the first one is the rising influence in iraq. Theyve always argued that a stronger iran would have more power and would step up the support for iraq we shouldnt be destabilizing factor in the iraq he policy. So thats why theyve been against the influence and similarly, in syria the rising influence is undercutting the policies, and the second concern is closer ties between washington at the expense of turkey. They havent been on the same page. They have had conflicting pre orgies and objectives and they are involved in the policy in iraq as well so they think that if washington and they have closer ties because of this nuclear deal then they could undercut the policy. Mainly turkey is supporting the toppling of the regime from the getgo since the uprising started in 2011, turkey has been late august, 2011 turkey has been supporting the opposition and has become an operational hub for the position and has invested heavily in the coalition so that is the strategic number one and yet the United States is seen as this threat so thats why theres been a lot of tension between washington and they are upset that turkey is not fully onboard on the coalition and very simply, turkey has refused to open the engine for strikes against the Islamic State and the u. S. And other western allies have complained that turkey hasnt done enough to stop the crossing using the turkish territory. So theres been a mismatch and they havent seen eye to eye so now they fear that washington and iran could cut a deal in syria although theyve been trying to mend fences thinking that it could also join the newly emerging front end of the third concern is in syria and that isnt a new concern for decades in the 1990s turkey had a zero solutions with the strategic relations because they always feared that iran was to destabilize turkey. And after the conflict started, it became another vulnerable because the regime supported and a loud about leadership to return to the country, and so they should become no more complicated because of the conflict and recently there has been a ceasefire since 2013 between turkey and the pkk. But more recently, the two sides resume violence and now they fear that iran could play the card again and the media last week reported that iran approached them and promised support that it has provided. If they join the fight and this is a huge concern behind the attack was in response to those, turkey has done several things. Theyve been under the old kingdom but after he died, its with the saudis in an effort to come to the rising influence. And also, turkey has been pursuing since 2014. They are supporting groups like the radical islam group added that and that is partly in response to the effort to the influence. And recently, turkey opened the base. The main reason most of the nuclear deal obviously. There was an attack by an Islamic State but caleb 32 people, the activists. So that was a turning point. But part of the reason they want to maintain ties with washington. So i think that they are stating these several steps. But still, i think when it comes to iran, they have peaceful relations to almost for centuries since 1639. So turkey on the one hand is very concerned about the rising influence. But i dont think that its willing to completely alienate. Thats been the policy. On the one hand they have close relations economically and close energy ties and and any other and despite the different circumstances, they could be able to manage a working relationship and it would remain. Thank you for the detailed information. Let me turn to the ambassador for impact on the longrunning conflict in this syria and iraq. Its nice to be here thank you for the invitation. When you start, speak for five or six minutes on. How will this affect iraq, and through this reminded me of a story of a british archaeologist invited to give talks about his Archaeological Research in the far east. He said to his friend how can i possibly explain everything that i know in a mere 20 minutes and he told them we will speak slowly. [laughter] washington is consumed with the issues of the nuclear deal in the politics. The problem is they actually do not evolve around iran or the United States. The problems in iraq and serious involved grievances among the communities that are longstanding and predates this Nuclear Accord and they are going to go on well beyond it. I think a bigger question would be is there a prospect in their cooptation. Let me look at that this for a couple of minutes. When i think of the war against the Islamic State i think of it in two ways. The Eastern Front and the western front. On the Eastern Front. First the pressure on the state are growing exponentially now. They are pushing more and more to seek independence because they are not getting the payments they were promised and there is not much progress beyond the reconciliation. They are part but not the most important part. They have close allies and they are particularly close to something very capable and some of which are in the terrorist designated list like hezbollah who killed hundreds of americans during the military presence. I dont think they are willing to give up those allies and themselves the other political have political ambitions. They still do. In fact if you are watching the news, the leaders are calling on the members to join the demonstration that has been taking place in baghdad and other cities protesting the services such as electricity and water. The leaders are very capable and smart and ruthless. In the absence of reconciliation between the militias. On this date problem because the Islamic State is basically for its losses and one of the political entities is to distrust the state to be able to recruit and replace the losses and the fight goes on. If the americans saddle up too closely to the militias, they will actually help the state recruit. The administration is very aware of this and theyve been careful to hold the militia to refuse to provide air cover when they attack the sunni Arab Government they cooperated with the allies on the ground in iraq in the future is not clear yet. They would have a greater margin of maneuver. There is a stalemate. The outside regime is moving. There is no sign that they are backing off their support for the outside regime. Just last week the foreign minister was visiting and promised that they would stand by his friend in the region and then took a shot and said it is up to the other countries in the region and here in the gulf to change the policies that are stabilizing. There is, however, some diplomatic frequent flyer mileage being extended with visits being traded and there is even a report not confirmed that one of the most important secret Intelligence Service officials visited saudi arabia last week which would be a remarkable visit if it had occurred but it hasnt been confirmed. They are about to put forward a peace proposal for syria which would include a call for the new national government. It would include a change to the constitution syria to better protect the rights of the minority communities, that it would include a promise of free elections at some point in the future and the foreign minister visited last week and then went presumably to talk about the saudis about this. I dont think this is going to go very far in part because of what they were saying. So far they havent signed into this although i noticed they are about to visit to talk to the Turkish Foreign minister and they will be on the agenda. The turks had a lead in all of this because of their support to the ambassador and i have to say based on my many discussions with the armed opposition i cannot imagine that they would trust them and that even if they did, they would never accept him stay on as a part of the transition government. Think about that per minute. Is there than much space for the american they cannot retake the suburbs it would be with us said trying to take on this whole state. Which are three, four, 500 miles instead it seems there be a deeper question about some kind of diplomatic orientation with i ron. That will require the iranians to expect, the opposite opposite reason jean is now losing the war and there would have to be a transition. Its not clear when the iranians are going to get some really leaf but they are going to be able to make that confession. I make that conclusion. In short, the grievances and events on the ground dont ask expect Immediate Exchange for american iranian. Thank you. Thank you very much robert. Let me come back to each of the panelists with one quick question each and then turn it over to the audience. Well go back to alex and give us a excellent view of the big picture. If you dial down a bit and into the conversations statements relating to the regional park, what is the specter of opinion relating to it iran relations with saudi arabia particularly in the gulf state and their new language, any new proposals. I know the Prime Minister made some of those but on the hardline is there any idea that this deal might signal new era . In relation to turkey they have a longer history of economic cooperate. Are you seen any new language that relates to their regional partners . Thank you paul. Let me go back to last week, to give you a flavor of the contradictions you here with iran. Which frankly doesnt help the iranians in terms of making friends or convincing anyone. We. We had on one hand 54 minister talk about we need to talk to saudi arabia. Specifically talk about yemen and also in this kate talk about the situation in bahrain. But then we look at the strongest language you can imagine between saudi arabia, israel, and you sit there and scratch your head and said you know if you really try to make new friends and you decide that you want to walk away from this, this is not going to convince anyone. You you are going to leave many people around the world, without question. Should i take someone like i ron which has been the question f