From the west, tiger money and investments in and therefore you are going to make this nuclear deal sustainable. But they are saying is that its not about the guns but its about how many big corporations are going to come in and invest their money, go back to the z. And speak good to us. Whether it works out as a different matter. The Supreme Leader is okay with economic reform and so far had said nothing about the great headlines we are hearing for instance to give you one example 185 billion worth of investment in the next five years. That investment brings you to the Global Economic mainstream in ways we have to deal with people that were enemies. And he hasnt opposed any of these projects or ideas so far. What i think you need to watch out for is if i was an american analyst watching this and i want to know how many people in the administration are going to square this thing and go back to the economy and deal with the western world which khomeini state has one of the key issues to say we arent going to become a dumping ground for the import. We have to stand on our own feet and learn lessons from the last ten years of distinction. So hes very cautious in what he says. Forget about everything weve done in terms of sustaining our economy at home. He says we are all going to do with the europeans only when it makes from the point of view of the resistance. And this is the key to understanding how the khomeini Supreme Leaders office is going to come against this planet. He has been extremely careful to make sure the Supreme Leader in his mind is the one driving this thing forward. I suspect the same thing is going to happen on this Major Economic world economy. Im not going to get into this but perhaps in the q. And a this is one of the key questions what was the intention for the Nuclear Negotiations. Was it to prevent the war or make friends and a lot of people in the United States have questions about the latter. Hispanic litany stop here and hopefully we can get to the other points. Im sure people in the audience have things they would like to hear more about. What we ask you when you are following is there any institutional obstacle and when did we know he know that this is accepted institutionally . They can go out there and Say Parliament has approved it and once the Congress Rejects it with the dealing for the last two years and this is how they treat an agreement so thats one thing we can put forward. Its not the decision maker. If anything it is used to control the atmosphere politically. How much of a hardline waste away want to have making sure they get into the parliament and that is one of the key issues to look out for. So if you see the people being rejected between now or dismissed by the framework being dismissed that as a sign. Therefore hes gotten what he wanted. The oneway putting obstacles in the path is to make sure they dont get too many supporters in the parliament. The parliament is not a key actor in this. The Nuclear Negotiations are going to be verified by the National Security council and some members of the parliament are asking for a vote before they are doing is clear they want to see if the americans play games we can play games. We are not used to political fear in the u. S. [laughter] lets turn to you. They may be having different reactions. What is your reading about how others have taken this agreement and how does it impact the relations with the u. S. And iran and are there any Nuclear Arms Race issues related to this and what are your thoughts on the reactions and actions . Spinnaker look out at the audience and i see so many friends that have been doing this too long. I want to start off in all the years ive been writing about the middle east i recently learned a fact, a random fact i want to start the discussion with by leaving it with you. Islamic law provides the attacks levied on nonbelievers in the islamic community. I learned recently that one of the first acts upon consolidating their control over arabia in the earliest years of stability shia, the attacks on the nonbelievers. And to me if you want to understand the collective attitude about shia, that tells you. So keep that in mind as we go through the rest of this discussion. Last fall, i attended two of these events on other institutions. On the first day the panelists were current and former american officials in the state department, the National Security council and basically all of them said the same thing. We in the United States have an unshakable no doubt about it commitment to the security and protection of our friends in the gulf and youll find it in all of our doctrines in the commanders statement in whatever you want to read from a book while journey all defense review. All the documents were turned up in washington. This is the gospel according to us. And you would have thought at some point we were talking about israel. This was the general saying you can take this to the bank which became a famous quote. The next day i went to the panel which most of the participants were in the region and it became apparent that they had heard all of this and they didnt believe it. It was a fundamental cognitive dissonance between them and us over an issue that mattered and that he saw in different ways. Thats when he was still the king of saudi arabia and its when the saudis and others in the gulf were indeed apprehensive about the way things were going into the probable the possible course of the discussions with iran and what it was going to remain to be so mean to them. So what is happening now is the members collectively, and i waited for you to shoot me down on this. The countries collectively have decided to believe that whether they do or not, what they tell each other over coffee at three in the morning or scotch at three in the morning i dont know. And they are not going to tell me anyway. But beginning with camp david in may you can see the leaders had made a collective decision that the deal was going to be done. They were not going to do a full on this. They need us more than we need them. And i think that is clear especially because of the realities of the market. There was a joint statement that president obama at camp david said we all recognized a wellcrafted agreement could be beneficial to the security throughout the region. And thats why the statement that he issued last week were recently when secretary terry was there wasnt a surprise. Now that the deal is done they said that weve reiterated the position theyve taken knowing that it was going to be done. And i think now what it seems to me thats happened is the gcc countries have decided that if she was behind them so they are going to take the United States at its word to all of the security arrangements weve committed ourselves to which the first manifestation of the patriot sale which came out not long after and they will work with us the best they can and better with each other to confront the problems in the region. How do we see this . They are feeling better and bigger the ones that matter the most. They are feeling better about the situation in yemen. I dont know whether they turned the corner but the deadly destructive stalemate followed the onset of the Bombing Campaign in march and now seems to have been broken with the big airbase to the north and the returned of the Vice President and you can now see the possibility at the very least getting back to the negotiating table in yemen. I dont want to enter a turf war but i dont think it was a coincidence that the foreign minister certainly suddenly showed up. You are all familiar with the link that it provides between the gulf and iran. I dont know what they said. He hasnt talked to me since he got mad when he was the ambassador in washington 20 years ago. But all of a sudden, the air was full of airplanes going here and there and you can see i think what i would describe as a sort of collective waking up into the agreement for better or worse is a done deal, therefore we have to look for other things. So lets work with the americans and each other to address things whether they can actually get their act together, i dont know. But they certainly are going to have the military equipment and capabilities to do what they think they need to do. And the american commitment i read this morning reading in the press i was reading a piece that pulls all this stuff together. Finally, to me just say one of the arguments bandied about in the United States during the discussion about the treaty mostly raised by people who in my opinion dont fundamentally understand the gulf war saudi arabia is the treaty would set off a Nuclear Arms Race in the gulf. I dont believe for one minute that thats true. And ive been writing this until people were bored with my writing more than a decade and my reasoning hasnt changed. Yes its true they have a stated commitment which some are acting on to create Nuclear Power in their countries. And they have very ambitious plans which frankly they need Nuclear Power. Basically they would raise this argument. You heard what my colleague was saying about the economy. In saudi arabia which is the country that matters the most on this subject and throughout the gulf, the first law, the first rule is selfpreservation. Theyve decided and recognized that they cant do that as a confrontational state in which they give people brad and dont fulfill their aspirations for a better life. Theyve committed itself to a future of full integration with the global economy. Theres a reason why the biggest Foreign Investment plans and operations in saudi arabia last year that went online or in General Electric got to Say Something of the mars candy company. They cant afford to be adult wants to be the north korea of the gulf. They understand perfectly well that their position as a full partner in the economy and the commitment to surpass germany as the exporter of petrochemicals cannot be fulfilled in the Nuclear Outlaws and therefore they wont do it. Thank you very much. Very excellent and concise presentation. We also came out with a phrase. Lets turn to turkey. Obviously there is a lot going on but focusing on the nuclear deal with iran and what is the spectrum of opinion and how does the government ceded and what are the pros and cons and how might it affect the turkish government policy. Tom mentioned that if you want to understand you have to understand the issue and if you want to understand turkish politics you have to understand but fear so the domestic policy that is the key to understanding the behavior and it plays a part in the policy as well. On the nuclear deal, turkey shares the western objectives on the Nuclear Program that it has promoted engagement instead of isolation against the sanctions and thats why in 2009 and 2010, back in the old days when the Foreign Ministers had problems turkey wanted to play bridge between the west and iran. They voted against the sanctions and they were happy about the nuclear deal for two reasons. The first one is economic. Iran is a huge market for the turkish goods and the provincial trade agreement with iran and close energy ties. Turkey has been mobilizing to invest in iran so that is the opportunity for the turkish business but also they have objected to a nuclear iran arguing that that could change the regional balance of power in favor of iran. So that is the policy at thats why all Political Parties and business organizations, pretty much everyone is happy about the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions but they have strategic concerns about iran. The first is in iraq. Weve always argued that the stronger iran is committed to have power and to step up its support and its the destabilizing factor in the policy. So thats why they are influenced into similarly they are on the opposing fronts and its undercutting the policies and the second concern is closer ties between washington and iran turkey and washington havent been on the same page. They have had conflict in priorities and objectives. They have closer ties because of the nuclear deal and then they can undercut the policy from the regime from the getgo from the uprising march and 2011 turkey has been, or late august in fact the 2011, turkey has been supporting the opposition into turkey has become an operational hub for the opposition and has invested heavily in the coalition so that is the strategic number one in syria and they see it as a threat so thats why theres a lot of tension between washington. Untold very simply turkey has refused to open the airbase in turkey for air strikes against the Islamic State. And the u. S. And other western allies have complained that turkey hasnt done enough to stop the crossings of the foreign jihadis. So there has been a mismatch and the two countries havent seen i do i so now turkey fears that they could cut a deal in syria and turkey has been trying to mend fences thinking that it could also join the newly emerging front. And the third concern is for the pkk offshoot in syria. And that isnt a new concern for turkey. For decades they have zero relations because they always feared that they were supporting the pkk to destabilize turkey. And after the conflict started the issue has become bolder boulder because they supported and a lot of the pkk leadership to return to the country. So they should become more complicated for turkey because of the conflict. More recently there has been a ceasefire between turkey and the pkk. But more recently, the two sides resumed violence and now turkey fears that they could play the card again. And the turkish media last week reported that iran approached the end and promised them support at his id has provided. If they join the fight on the regime this is a huge concern and that is one of the reasons behind the recent attacks. So in response to those threats and concerns, turkey has done several things. But after he died, turkey launched this to counter the rising influence of the region. And also, theyve been pursuing a very aggressive policies and 2014. Theyve been supporting the groups that radical islam. And i think that is also partly in response to the effort to come to the influence in syria. And recently, turkey opened the airbase for the strikes against the state and the main reason wasnt the nuclear deal that killed 32 people, kurdish activists. So that was the turning point. But i think part of the reason is they want to mend ties with washington but still they have peaceful relations for centuries so turkey on the one hand is concerned about the rise but on the other hand, i dont think that it is willing to completely alienate iran and it could be able to answer but on the one hand they had very close relations economically and very close ties at all the other hand despite the different stances and syria in iraq, they could be able to manage to have a working relationship and i think that it will remain so. Hispanic thank you for the fascinating presentation. Thanks for that. Let me turn to the ambassador. Impacts on the longrunning conflict in syria and iraq. Its nice to be here. Thank you for the invitation. When you start to speak for five or six minutes. How is this going to affect syria and iraq. [inaudible] a british archaeologist and fight at the end being the 20th century to give a talk about his Archaeological Research that hed been digging up temples and ancient cities [inaudible] she went to his friends, the british playwright and said how can i explain everything i know in just 20 minutes come and he told them speak slowly. Left to just used use the per minute so i only have four to go. Just on syria and iraq, washington is consumed with the issue that this nuclear deal and the politics. The problems in the syria and iraq do not evolve around iran or the United States. The problems in iraq and to syria in both grievances among the communities that are longstanding and predate this Nuclear Accord and they are going to go on well beyond it. I think a bigger question would be a reasonable prospect of the cooperation of the two conflict zones. When i pick up this war in the Islamic State i think of it at the eastern front. The pressure on the envy entity of the iraqi state are growing exponentially now. The oil prices are pushing to curb more and more to seek independence because they are not getting the pay they were promised. Its one more grievance among others and there isnt much progress on reconciliation between iraq. The iranians are part of it although they are not the most important part. They have close allies and they are particularly close to the capable and potent militia that killed hundreds of servicemen during the military presence in combat. I dont think they are likely to give up those allies and they themselves have political ambitions. In fact if youre watching the news, they are calling on members to join the demonstrations that have been taking place protesting the poor provision of services. These political militia leaders are very smart and ruthless and capable. In the absence of reconciliation its not clear that they will be able to work a whole lot because the Islamic State problem is basically one that recruits its losses and as long as the political entity is marked with distrust they will be able to recruit and the fight goes on. If they saddle up too closely to the militia it will actually help the state recruit. I think the administration is aware of this and they refused to provide air cover when they attacked the city of tikrit which was a smart move so how they will cooperate on the ground in iraq is not clear yet only if they are willing to feed the authority of the militia i think would then have a greater margin of maneuver. Thats the good news. The bad news is the regime is now losing and i was just talking before we started the opposition is closing in on the homeland but theres no sign that they are backing off their support. Just las