[inaudible conversations] good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us here. My name is rick jones, vicepresident and director of the program here a the brookings. Its my pleasure to welcome you for todays event hosted by the brookings center. This event is part of expanding with our partnership with the brookings transatlantic initiative. This is a multiyear platform that will spur a range of new activities not only on global issues, but that the transatlantic partners can get together. Were grateful they recognize that the value that brookings brings to this is our in depth high quality and independent research. Were pleased to be able to announce a fellow that will be joining us and add capacity to our team in answering questions in the relationship and as you see in todays discussions those are substantial. Challenges faced in europe are numerous from an upsurge in nationalism and populism to turmoil following the brexit decision and concerns after the financial crisis and great exit crisis, slow growth, high unemployment. Russia efforts to destabilize Eastern Europe and the ongoing refugee crisis. Of course, the United States has a variety of its own issues to be working through which adds to the complexity of the challenge. Were approaching a pivotal European Election in germany. And these issues are shaping up not only to be central to those politics, but to the broader european debate as a whole and would i say in both cases, both in the United States and europe, these debates are con straining in the way were working in the world and tackling global issues. So i think the discussion today is extraordinarily timely and underscored the need for this expanded efforts on the Transatlantic Relationship and on the work we can do together. We are going to be building on that effort here at brookings. As you know, our team has had changes. Fiona hill, director for center for europe and the United States, joined the white house for senator senior development. Im pleased they found new leadership in tom wright and he has a book in which the Transatlantic Relationship is located. And we have a couple of other folks joining our team, which is terrific. Victoria newland, who until recently was assistant secretary of state for europe, will be joining the team. So will our current president , he sits down later in the fall and jamie and nicole have joined the team and our french visiting fellow who joins the team now. So as you can see, were adding considerable intellectual and power pow power now i am ill turn it over to my friend and partner who will say a few remarks and well get under way with the meat of the day. Christian. [applause] thank you, bruce, our distinguished panelists, ladies and gentlemen, a very warm welcome from my side and a big thank you to our colleagues at brookings for hosting us here today in d. C. My name is christian, im at it is a pleasure to see so many guests and members and familiar faces at the Transatlantic Community for our initial tich or in short the bbti. When asked about the state of transatlantic partnership, recently told press there has quote, unquote never been so much uncertainty in the history of the germanamerican relationship as there is at the moment. Whether or not you agree with the statement i think its beyond doubt were facing one of the most difficult periods for Transatlantic Relationships in decades. This is among many reasons why the Brookings Institute have expanded our cooperation and under the roof of the bbti and its two pillars, High Quality Research and programming, brookings scholars are scaling up research and analysis on the most pressing transatlantic issues and challenges of our time. Over the course of the next year, our two institutions will host a series of events on both sides of the atlantic, to build and expand a resilient transatlantic work, contribute between the United States and europe and to reinvigorate the transatlantic cooperation on global issues and social cohesion. Which is an issue, a challenge, not only in europe, but also in the u. S. , i guess. The topic of todays panel, the future of europe as bruce has said could not be more timely. The challenges that the eu currently faces are enormous and as current German Foreign minister recently put it, have brought the historic project of the eu to the brink of collapse. In the economics here, lingering concerns about the future of the euro zone and pro growth and persistently high unemployment rates and many eu countries continue to put pressure on politicians and the european project. And the Foreign Policy externals like increasing authoritarian governments of turkey and russia and Trans National terrorism, on this day, another sad note with the events unfolding in the city of london. All of these challenges test the European Union. One of europes biggest concerns is the large flow of refugees and migrants from africa and the middle east. Since 2011 civil war sent the implosion of the europes neighborhoods, with a massive refugee crisis with several Million People headed to the European Union. One dimensional populous politics, of fear as well as tendency of National Isolation slovakia, looked at the Fair Distribution of refugees among the eu countries and ultimate contributed to brexit and other parties some of which Harbor Strong antieu and xenophobic sentiments. In germany current polls show the right wing alternative for germany to possibly rank third in the upcoming federal election later this month. But, i mean, giving the somewhat uncertainty of polls these days, fifth or sixth place would be possible as well. These forces continue to challenge the european project from within. Longtime assumptions from the benefit of open borders, the significance of a deeper and wider European Union, and even the relevance of the Transatlantic Relationship are being contested. Its therefore only consequential that the topic of 2017 is the resurgence of nationalism and xenophobia and politics with a comparison in the u. S. And the current dynamics behind them as well as the constraints and Transatlantic Relations. And i will not stop without hope and optimism even though im german. We can be very optimistic. This years elections in austria and france proof that people believe in the european promise for a Better Future and very much im looking forward to you the german elections in a week from now, because even though they might come in as third place, by the way, finally have to face the democratic parties on the platform, of the established platforms of the democratic system which i think will be something to look forward to. We still have the luxury in dpaerm germany. And maybe some compatriots disagree, but we have the luxury in germany the choice is between two real europeans and two democrats who run for chancellor. So, im looking forward to todays insight from the Panel Discussion on future of europe as well as the following keynote conversations between talbert and victoria knewland. New without further adio, i look forward to this. Thanks. [applaus [applause]. Im particularly pleased to welcome celia belin whos here to my immediate left. Shes our new visiting fellow in the center for the u. S. And europe and was previously on the policy planning staff in france. So were delighted to have her join us for your first public event, first of many in the next few years. William brozdiak is a nonresident senior fellow at brookings and also senior advisor, mccarty associate bubbles and poorly he is is a new book out that just came out this week which is titled factual continent. The subtitle is europes crisis in the fate of the west. I havent read it yet but i have it. I heard bill speak about this week and its terrific look at the state of the eu, and we look forward to hearing his thoughts on that in a few minutes. Constanze stelzenmuller is the senior fellow here at brookings and is our resident expert on germany and all things european and transatlantic. And Kemal Kirisci is a senior fellow and director of the turkey project here at brookings. Lets just dive into come if i could start with you because you do have this important new book out this week. He spent the last two years really talking to me at the Senior Leaders in europe, many officials and others in europe about this really remarkable set of crisis that affected the eu over the last five years. Look back five years ago there were many people here who said in washington that europe wasnt an issue anymore because all the problems have been solved. How do you think about it today in terms of the optimism and pessimism . Is europe in the process of unraveling or have we seen a rebound this year that it might be about to sort of turn the corner . Thank you, tom. I think theres a slight mood of optimism permeating europe today, but thanks to an economic recovery thats been taking place over the last few months. I think that the landscape is more fragmented than ever. The income gap between north and south is worse than ever, exacerbated by the economic crisis over the past ten years. Theres also a split between east and west as weve seen the worsening relations between poland and germany, with poland asking for war reparations which is very raw emotional subject. And also the battles that poland and hungary have been having with brussels, that they seem to be turning their back on Democratic Values in terms of cracking down on the free press, and the judiciary. And so there is going to be a continuing struggle to sort this out, even after the german election and the perception chancellor merkel get a fourth term. And as tom alluded to the recent crises of the refugee flows have been stopped from turkey into greece, what theyve continued from north africa into italy and spain, which is creating a lot of xenophobia and tension. And the battle to get russia to play a more cooperative role is still continuing. Theres a newly resurgent and belligerent russia, this week conducting wargames in and around belarus which has trouble a lot of people at nato. Because the president the four years ago it was a prelude to what the military involvement in Eastern Ukraine and before that, the incursion into georgia. And beyond that there is of course the very difficult negotiations over the next couple of years with britain on the exit from European Union. Theres been some buyers remorse in britain, but i dont think it has reached the level word that would be the political decision by either major party to hold a new referendum and possibly stop the removal of britain from the eu. So all these problems are continuing. And i might add as poland chose which is the Fastest Growing economy in europe over the past ten years, the wave of population is not really populism is not diminishing because of economic recovery. Large justice is the very populist nationalist movement and it still remains are entrenched in power. I think the classic division between right and left are being replaced in europe, th between populist nationalist and globalists, and just as it is in a way in the United States. So this is the big challenge i think over the coming years for the west. This is what the fate of the west is at stake here and its going to take great political courage to get this resolved. Thank you. Constanze, if we can get your perspective. People say germany is blessed with incredibly boring elections with very few excitement, which i think everyone in britain of use would probably trade for a heartbeat and was looking at beyond that and the question mark to really about what chancellor merkel, presuming she is reelected, will do in the next sort of four years, ticket with france. But could you talk to us and the livid about how you sort of to germanys role and also the wider context in europe in the post election of our . Sure. Thank you very much. Glad to see everybody here with a full room. I take that as a complement in europe. And the Transatlantic Relationship obviously. I think you can say its boring on the surface, but i suppose germans are always a little nervous about their own country. I am certainly feeding a little nervous. The mere fact that the safety, the alternative for germany, a party that is only four years old and start out as an antieurantieuro party and is t explicitly at the immigrant in some ways quite utterly at the somatic party, racist certainly and has made no effort whatsoever, in fact, has refusd all calls to distance itself from the more openly rightwing extremist elements of its movement, the fact that its even about to enter the bundestag with dozens of members is, frankly, deeply disturbing to me although i agree with you that having them exposed to the glut of public scrutiny and having them working in the bundestag with others is probably going to reveal a lot of the weaknesses. Certainly in the course of the last four years they have made into 11 at 16 state legislators, and where that is the case their performance as legislators has been mostly abysmal. There are also members, often forgotten, some of the most egregious figures, also members of the european parliament, like many other european pompous movements and parties, and there again theyve collected hefty salaries, made rockist statements, and other words contributed very little or nothing at all to the business of governance. I dont think the world is coming to an end because of that but it will change the nature of german politics. And if they come right now theyve been going from Single Digits where they been in the polls throughout the summer and, in fact, german polls could almost be said to be rock solid until quite recently. Now the spd is plummeting to 20 and ive got friends taking bets they could go down as first 18 which would be sort of a National Disaster for a party that is 150 years old. And the afd has been moving upwards to ten and even 12 , and as we know only half of the voters are not decided yet so theres room therefore surprises i fear. I think under the circumstances because with a multiparty system, its highly unlikely the next chance will not be called Angela Merkel, but, of course, the succession debate begins on september 24 at 6 p. M. And one minute, right . And that is of course intense concern to her own party, to what he wants to a successor and to germans generally but every whatever he also like to know is what is germany going to do on the front of european and transit letter politics . There is a huge edge and which has been more or less in suspension over the summer and both the introductory speaker here, i do want to take up all the panel times a suspect will get into some of those, but yes. I mean, the job of restarting the european project and the transatlantic at some degree begin next sunday afternoon. Just on the succession, is it assumed merkel will stay the entire term, not just write again by which he step down before germany doesnt have term limits in its constitution, but it would be the only other chancellor was ever tried for a fifth term with conrad, then you said the position of the german president had been completely underrated, ha have far more por than he is going to run for that. Since he was already a think well into his 80s at that time, i think his party told him in no Uncertain Terms that wasnt going to happen. So i doubt that merkel is susceptible to the kind of delusion that Conrad Adenauer at the time was i think subject you. Something shes not going to do that. I doubt come distance pixelation about her jumping off to some of the position. I dont think she would do that actually. I think she would serve to the infamous something something stopped her. What differentia turf from a career politicians in the world is shes not needy. I think she does is out of a sense of obligation. I dont think she really needs the spotlight to exist as it were. I dont think there is some switch into that gets flipped by the spotlight of public attention and that sort of feels her up with meaning and purpose. And i think she generally thinks she has a job to do. So will be looking at the big succession of it at a think the key question before germany is, what happens to the centerleft social democrats take the kind of counting appears denouncing itself now . Does the very successful triangulation that Angela Merkel did come moving it to the middle of the model of what clinton did in the 90s and that tony blair did after him . The sort of, its kind of a third way which is not on the left but on the right, and will the elements of the cdu the want to do that prevail or will the more conservative elements that want to occupy the place thats now been occupied in part by the afd, was to try and regain that and refashion a much more angular, much more shall we say ideological conservative movement . Went to my come back to later is the fate of the spd is a silver to the fate of other centerleft parties in europe. Across the board. Kemal, if we can come to you. Turkey, turkeys relation with the germany of not been in great shape over the last year and its sort of fraud relationship between erdogan and chancellor merkel. But broader than that theres also the question about turkeys roll. Ten years ago people were talking about, five years even pathways the eu membership. Whats your perspective on this debate and how to sort of turkey fit into sort of europe hanging in this question of europe hanging in the balance about which way it will go . Well, not a day goes by without some excitement developing from turkey. The german turkish relations have be