We will make it through and stand together and be united. Host of course. Thank you for your time, congresswoman. A forum on us transit atlantic relations as european Foreign Policy experts talk about europes approach to russian aggression, trade, immigration and relations with the United States on these topics. The Brookings Institution is the host of this event. Thank you for joining us here. My name is bruce jones, Vice President of the Foreign Policy here at brookings and my pleasure to welcome you here today for todays event hosted by the Brookings Center on the United States and europe in collaboration with the robert. [inaudible] this event is part of our expanding partnership. This is a multi Year Research program and platform that will spur a range of new activities that will spur on debate not only on the relationships but on global issues the transatlantic partners can touch together and work on together. We are very grateful to bosch for the support of this initiative and were particularly grateful that they recognize that the value that perkins brings. Fe we are very pleased soon to be able to announce the new bosch senior fellow that will be joining us at capacity to our team to address some of the challenges and questions in the relationship and, as we see in todays discussion, those are substantial. The challenge is based in europe are numerous from an upsurge inn nationalism and on populism,m, institutional turmoil following the brexit decision, to lingering economic concerns after the financial crisis, slot growth, high on employment, russias continued effort to destabilize europe and the ongoing refugee crisis. Of course, the United States has a fair idea of its own issues to be working through which adds to the complexity of the challenge. We are approaching a little European Election in germany and these issues are shipping up not only to be central to those politics but to the broader european debate, as a whole. I would say that in both cases, both United States and in europe, these debates are constraining discussion about the way in which we need to be working in the world and tackling larger global issues. I think the discussion is extraordinary and timely and underscores the need for this expanded effort on the Transatlantic Relationship and in the work we can do together. We will be building on that effort here at brookings, as yo know our team has had some changes. Many of you know that fiona hill who was the director of our center for europe and the United States is joined the white house as senior director for european russia. She is on leave from brookings for that assignment and while she is way im very pleased that our europe team is in new leadership in tom rice. He recently authored a very important book called all measures short of war which is the best account of their of the changing geopolitics of the moment in which the Transatlantic Relationship is located. We have a couple of other folks joining our team which is terrific. Victoria newland, assistant secretary for europe and shall be joining the team. Our current president of the institute will step down later in the fall. Jamie. [inaudible] p and im delighted today to welcome the french visiting fellow who joined the team now. As you can see we are adding considerable policy making and its real testimony to the partnership that we are able to do that much appreciated. Now, it is my pleasure to turn the proceedings over to my friend and partner from bosch. He will say a few remarks and then we will get underway. Christian. [applause] thank you for that, bruce. Ladies and gentlemen, a very warm welcome from my side and a big thank you to our colleagues at brookings for hosting us here today in dc. My name is christian and im senior Vice President of. [inaudible] it is a pleasure to see so many guests and members and familiar faces at the Transatlantic Community for the second eventto of brookings boss initiative or in short the bb ti. When asked about the state of Transatlantic Partnership germay federal president and until recently foreign minister recently told the press that there was never been so much uncertainty in the history of the germanamerican relationship as there is at the present moment. Whether or not you agree with a the statement, i think is beyond doubt that we are facing one of the most difficult periods for Transatlantic Relations in decades. This is among the many reasons why the Brookings Institute have expanded our corporations under the bb ti and its two pillars, highquality research and programming and parking scholars are scaling up research and analysis on the most pressing transatlantic issues and challenges over time. Over the course of the next year are two institutions will host a series of events on both sides of the atlantic to build and expand a resilient Transatlantic Network contribute to sustained dialogue between united in europe, and to reinvigorate the transatlantic collaboration on global issues and social cohesion. This is an issue, challenge, not only in europe but also in the us, i guess. The topic of todays panel, the future of europe, cannot be more timely. The challenge is that the eu currently faces are enormous and as current foreign minister recently put it have brought the historic projects of the eu to the brink of collapse. In the economic sphere lingering concerns about the future of the slow growth and persistently high unemployment rates and in many eu countries continues put pressure on politicians and the european project. The Foreign Policy spirit external actors like the increasingly authoritarian governments of turkey and russia, as well as transnationar terrorism and this day is another sad note for unfolding in the city of london all these challenges test the European Union. One of europes biggest concerns is the large flow of refugees and migrants from africa and the middle east. Since 2011 civil war imploded and its a massive rescue be christ crisis with a vermilion had in people toward the European Union. [inaudible] it has triggered a perceived righteousness regarding the Fair Distribution of refugees against the eu countries and ultimately contributed to brexit, as well as the rise of rightwing parties, some of which harbor very strong anti eu sentiments. In germany, current polls show the right wing alternative for germany to possibly rank third in the upcoming federal elections later this month. Giving the uncertainty of polls these days this or six place would be possible, as well. Thes these forces continue to challenge the european project from within. Longtime assumptions like the benefits of open borders and the significance of deeper and Wider European Union and even the relevance of the Transatlantic Relationship are being contested. It is therefore only consequential that the bb tis focus of topic of 2017 is the resurgence of nationalism with the comparative perspective on similar developments in the us d in order to assess the character and dynamics behind them, as well as the constraints they place on Transatlantic Relations. Cu i will not come to an end without some hope and optimism even though i am german. We might not have a sense of f humor but we can be optimistic. This years election in austria, france and the netherlands prove that many citizens still believe in the european process is a project for the peaceful future and therefore i look forward to the german elections in a week from now because even though the odds are not richland, then, by the way, has to face the democratic partys on the platform of the established platforms of the democratic system which i think will be something to look forward to we still have the luxury in germany, in my opinion, some, compatriots on the panelc disagree but we still have the luxury that in germany the choice is between two real europeans and two democrats who run for chancellor. Im looking forward to todays insight from the Panel Discussion on the future of europe, as well as the following keynote conversation between victoria newland. Without further ado, i thank you very much for your attention and look forward to and engaging, thoughtful broking day. Thanks. [applause] thank you to christian and to bruce. E. My name is tom rice and im delighted to share a terrific panel, i think, on the future of europe and looking at the Transatlantic Relationship and looking forward to the conversation. We have a terrific lineup and very briefly i like to introduce everyone. They have very long bios in the sheets that i wont get into but im particularly pleased to welcome start new visiting fellow in the center for the us and europe and was previously policy planning staff in france. Were delighted to have her join us here first public event, first of many in the next few years. Is also a fellow and Senior Advisor and Mccarty Associates but most importantly, he is a new book that came out this week which is titled thatcher continent and the subtitle is europes fate of the west and i havent read it yet but i have purchased it and i encourage everyone to do so. I heard bill speak about it earlier this week and it is terrific. Look at the state of the eu and where it might be headed and we look forward to hearing from his book in a few minutes. Next is the senior fellow here at brookings and our residentto expert on germany and all things european and transatlantic. Next is a senior fellow of the director of the turkey project here at brookings. Lets dive into and if i could start with this important new book out this week, you spent the last two years talking to many of the Senior Leaders and their many officials and others in europe about this remarkablee set that affected the eu over the last five years. We look back five years and many people here said in washington that it wasnt an issue anymore because of all the problems have been solved. How do you think about it today in terms of the optimism and pessimism. Is europe in the process of unraveling or we have we seen a rebound that it might be about to turn the corner . Thank you, tom. I think theres a slight mood of optimism permeating europe today thanks to an economic recovery that has taken place the last few months. I think that the landscape is more fragmented than ever. The income gap between north and south is worse than ever. Is exacerbated by the economic crisis over the past ten years and theres a split between east and west. As weve seen, the worsening relations between poland and germany with poland asking for s war reparations which is raw and the battles that poland and hungary have been having with brussels that they seem to be turning their back on democratic values, in terms of cracking down on the free press and the judiciary and there will be a continuing struggle to sort this out, even after the german election and the presumption that chancellor merkel will get a fourth term. As tom alluded to, the recentth crises, the right refugee flows have been stopped from turkey into greece they continued from north africa into italy and spain which is creating a lot of tension in the battle to get russia to play a more cooperative role is still continuing. There is a newly resurgent and belligerent russia this week they are conducting for games in and around belarus which has troubled a lot of people at nato. The precedent set four years ago it was a prelude to what their military involvement in eastern or canaan before that it went into georgia. Beyond that, there is of course the very difficult negotiations over the next couple of years with britain on the exit from the European Union. There has been a some buyers remorse in britain but i dont think it has reached the level where theres the political decision by any major party and hold a new referendum andthere s possibly remove the print from you. An all of these problems aree continuing and i might add, we have the Fastest Growing them economy in ten years and the way populism is not really diminishing because the economic recovery but law and justice is a very Popular National movement and it remains entrenched in power. The classic divisions between right and left are being replaced in europe and between populist nationalist andthe bi globalist and this is the big challenge i think over the coming years for the west which is the fate of the west is at stake here and will take great political courage to get this resolved. Thank you. Constanza, people say that germany is an incredibly boring election and very little excitement which i think everyone in britain and the us would trade for in a heartbeat but we are looking beyond that and there is about what chancellor merkel and wachtel do in the next four years particularly but could you talk is about how you see germanys role and also the wider context in europe in this postelection environment. Sure. Thank you very much. Its great to see everyone here with a full room. Ou i take that as the company went to europe and the Transatlantic Relationship obviously. Io i thank you can say its boring on the service but i suppose germans are always a littlee nervous about their own country. Im certainly feeling nervous. The mere fact that the alternative for journey partytya that is only four years old and started out as an anti europe party is now an exclusively anti immigrant and in some ways anti semitic party, racist certainly, and has made noth effort whatsoever and has in h fact refused all calls to distance itself from the morees openly right wing extremist elements of this movement and the fact that its even about to enter the boom truck with dozens of members is frankly deeply disturbing to me. Although, christian, i agree with you that having them exposed to the glare of public scrutiny and having them working is probably going to reveals th weaknesses. In the course of the last four years they have made it into 166 state legislators and whether that is the case that performance is legislative has been abysmal. They are also members most of their egregious figures, like many populist movements and parties, they are in the legislator and theyve collected hefty salaries. They have made raucous statements and contributed very little or nothing at all to business and government. I dont think the world is coming to an end because of that but it will change the nature of german politics and if they, p right now they been going from Single Digits where they been in the polls throughout the summer and, in fact, german polls could almost be said to be rocksolid until quite recently. The democrats were at on now, the fpd is plummeting to 20 and ive got friends taking bets p they could go down as far as 18 which would be a National Disaster for a party that is 150 years old and the. [inaudible]8 as we know, half of the voters are not decided yet so there is deom there for surprise, i fear. Under the circumstances becauser we have a multiparty system it is highly unlikely that the next but the succession debate depends on september 24 and 1 minute. That is, of course intense concern to her own party and Everyone Wants to be her successor in germany in general but what everyone else wants to know is what will germany do on the front of european and transatlantic politics and theres a huge agenda waiting which is also been more or less suspended over the summer and. Both of you to respond to the. I dont want to take up all the panel time but yes, the job of restarting the europeanan project in the transatlantic alliance, to some degree begins next sunday afternoon. On the succession, is it assumed that merkel will stay the entire term and not runng again or would she step down before germany doesnt have term limits in its constitution but it would be the only other chancellor whos ever tried for a fifth term. He said that the position of the german president had been totally underrated and had far more power than he was going to run for that. Since he was already well into his 80s at that time i think his party told him in no Uncertain Terms that that wasnt going to happen. I doubt that merkel is susceptible to the kind of delusion that subject to and i think she wont do that. I theres been speculation about her jumping off and i dont think she would do that. I think she would serve through to the end unless something happens and she would step down. The key thing to know about Angela Merkel and what differentiates her is that she has not needy. T thin she does this out of a sense of obligation. I dont think she really needs the spotlight to exist and i dont think there is some switch and her they get slipped by the spotlight and thats fills herno up with meaning and purpose. I think she genuinely thanks she has a job to do and so we will be looking at the key question before germany is what happens to the center left if the social democrats take the trouncing that it it appears and does the very successful triangulation that Angela Merkel moving it to the middle on the model of what clinton did in the 90s and tony blair did and its a third way which is not on the left with the right and will the element of the cdu that want to do that prevail or will the more conservative elements want towa occupy the place that is now being occupied in part by the fda and will they try to ingrain that and refashion a much more angular and much more shall we say, ideological concern. One thing we might come back to later as the state is th