Been visiting people and awaits the premise came along and stabbed him to death days before he was to graduate. Days before dad. About the subject we will address after the past week, hundreds were gunned down last night in las vegas. I dont think we know yet what the motives were. Two women were stabbed to death in front of the train station in marseille france by an asus sympathizer, and there seems to be an unprecedented disconnect between our secretary of state and president on the strategy to walk north korea back on threats of nuclear war. Vice president pentz was here a few months ago. He is an old friend of mine from our congress days. He told us the president s strategy of America First does not mean america alone. At the Wilson Center, we all hope Vice President pentz. [inaudible] this is the fourth time in master eva and the Chicago Council are here to release their survey of American Public opinion. It is a great partnership. In the parlance of this new report, we have an enduring alliance. Its also reassuring to learn the good news in this report. Americans continue to support an active u. S. Role in Foreign Affairs. Much of the vision for that role started with Woodrow Wilson who is our 20th president , our only phd president and who was serving 100 years ago today. Downstairs in our memorial hall, you all passed by there, wilsons words are inscribed. About his decision, and it was controversial even to him, he said, and it really resonates now, it is a fearful thing to lead this great peaceful people into war, but the right is more precious than peace and we shall fight for the things which we have always carried nearest to our heart, for democracy, for the right of those who submit to authority to have a voice in their own government, for a universal dominion of right by such concert of free people as shall bring peace and a safety to all nations and make the world itself. At last free. At times like this as the audience in this auditorium know, the center and the Chicago Council, we think, are needed more than ever to connect the scholarship and thought leadership to the global challenges we face. Joining karen, a friend of ours of longstanding, is of course eva and dena from the Chicago Council and congressman Mike Gallagher, a very able newbie in the United States congress, from wisconsin. But first, before our panel starts, a brief video. From this day forward, its going to be only America First. America first. President trumps inaugural address like his campaign, signal the departure from the last seven decades of america policy. They prescribed greater protection in trade, financial reckoning with our security allies, tightening borders and withdrawing from Major International agreements. The the 2017th chicago survey conducted six months and tested the appeal of these ideas among the American Public. Results show the attraction remains limited. He has criticized allies and argued that u. S. Alliances were not serving american interests. Americans believe maintaining existing alliances and building new alliances 69 say its essential to security and for the first time majorities of americans are willing to use u. S. Troops to defend south korea invaded by north korea and defend nato allies if there are made by russia. Theyve criticized International Agreements for benefiting other countries at the expense of u. S. Economy and workers. Compared to a year ago, record numbers of americans Say International trade is good for consumers and job creation. In fact, the perceived benefits of all party affiliations. Hes also going for trade deals for the lack of american jobs. Americans agree. Nearly six in ten say manufacturing job losses are due to outsourcing. Yet more americans say the Current Administration policies will harm, rather than hurt u. S. Workers. It was a central issue of immigration during the campaign. 37 show it as a critical threat. There are however, large differences between democrats and republicans. Support for legal workers to become citizens has gone up. Sixtyfive of americans support providing legal immigrants citizenship. Conducted just weeks after trump withdrew the u. S. From the paris agreement, 2017 survey results show they continue to favor staying in the agreement. 46 consider Climate Change a critical threat. Its a largely part of an issue. The 2016 survey results showed that the attitudes that put donald trump into the White White House are longstanding and could strengthen. The 2017 survey finds that instead the ideas behind americas first have not spread beyond his core supporters. Just like the publicly charged environment this past year, American Express enduring support for World Affairs and maintaining security alliances. In key instances, americans have doubled down on these beliefs. Public support has risen to new high when it comes to defending allies and a desire to grant undocumented workers citizenship. There are large differences between republicans who support trump and those who do not. In the end, rather than embracing reorientation of foreignpolicy, most americans recognize value in maintaining traditional security and trade relationships. A morning. Thank you all for being here. Just to summarize, the pole indicates that while trumps core supporters remain supportive of the Foreign Affairs position, those views have not really resonated with the majority of americans. In many cases fewer support the views than they did a year ago. We found more americans believe that existing alliances should be maintained, International Trade is good for the economy and consumers like you for creating job. Fewer see immigration as a threat. I want to ask each of you. More americans are now paying attention because the conventional wisdom, as the video said have been challenged and theyve learned more about those issues as trump addressed them and they seem policy play out and they see these policies as being successful and a tight control from immigration. Thank you karen. Hello everyone. This panel is a really impressive panel and i dont know that my views should be first but first let me raise a question. I looked at it and i tried to figure out but the polling was so off during the election. Did you really adequately pole from space. The reason i ask, even today in the new york times, theres a huge article about do trumps views still resonate with his base. My first question is whats the methodology, americans are smart. I always used to say my constituents were the smartest, and at least they were. A lot of people now, with the absent of social media, are very connected in the world. Their views are not necessarily shaped by what happens at a White House Press conference, their ship and people they know and the travels they make. I think thats a good thing. Theres a layered sense of getting information in this country. Some social media is an echo chamber on both ends. I think a lot of people are smart and getting their information from many sources. Thats good for america. I think the views of reviewing the poles are solid mainstream views that both parties should embrace. Could you explain how you differentiated between republicans and Trump Supporters. Yes, we have some slides that were just up and i have the full methodology. There are many different ways to measure a trump supporter. The way i do find it was in a strict sense. We look at people who have a very favorable opinion of donald trump. That was about 26 of the overall public. Then we also looked more closely at just republicans who had a very favorable view of donald trump and found some very interesting differences between trump republicans versus not trump republicans. There are a lot of different ways you can look at it. Who voted for trump, who didnt, they are motivated bipartisan allegiances, nine or ten republicans ended up voting for donald trump even though they didnt vote for him in the primary, same thing with Hillary Clinton and democrats. Thats how we decided to define them. You look at the overall Approval Rating for donald trump and its about 36 or 37 and again not all of those people have a favorable view. Thats the way we decided to do it and it seemed to bear out with the data. I think one of the key findings between finding what we call Trump Supporters, this being in late june or early july and the rest is to see to the extent that the president and his foreignpolicy messages are resin painting among the states and the answer is there resonated extremely well. Our findings are very consistent that the president is maintaining his base in a strong way. Where is the non base going . Drained or untrained they say. There is 70 to 75 of americans who did not have a highly favorable view of trump. That doesnt mean they have an unfavorable view but they dont have a highly favorable. They have a pretty coherent worldview. There are different differences between party lines, but those are much smaller than the differences between them and the court Trump Supporters. The key is America First is resonating with those who have a highly favorable view of the president. Those with pro alliances, pro free, fair trade, pro International Agreements and make sense to the United States, the kind that we have form since 1945. Thats an important finding. It means the world may not be changing as significantly, at least in the public sense as the debate seems to indicate in our newspapers and on our twitter feed. The views that motivate the Trump Supporters which are immigration and trade more really different but in their views than the overall public. This disaffection in terms of immigration policy and the fewer of immigrants from republicans and the concern for jobs being a public concern and not an elite concern, that has been there for years and decades. So, even without trump, the supporters, these people that hold these views were still present in the population. Its just that trump was willing to voice his concerns and tap in to their grievances in a way that no other candidate had done before. And its really important, i think while your average voter couldnt articulate why they think nafta is deficient, i would suspect your average member of congress could articulate that to you. They do have a sense of when things arent going well. I do think the International Environment has become constrained to the point that i never heard someone in the context of my campaign say im really concerned about the erosion of the rules based global. [inaudible] i would submit if our position in the world languish to the point where it reaches lambeau field, we have a problem that your average voter can understand. I think trump tapped into that quite effectively. I also agree that there are some good news, to the extent that we have broad bipartisan majority with 67 of democrats and 65 of democrats who support american leadership, thats a great thing. Digging into the number of Trump Supporters, only 4 say we should not exercise any active leadership role. Thats less, 53 of court Trump Supporters say we should be the dominant world player so far from expressing isolationism, it seems like theyre endorsing more than a jacksonian reaction, its a instinctive understanding that one word number one we have a credible military deterrent, the world is safer. To be safer and stronger we need to support our friends and punish our enemies. I think trump tapped into that. One of the things that surprised me about the survey is that while americans agree that the United States maintain strong existing alliances overseas, that was just about half. It was not huge and yet an individual alliances, when you are ashley we support our allies or nato, those majorities were quite high including a willingness to defend allies. I was surprised that the willingness to defend against russia was considerably lower than the considerable nest to defend south korea against north korea. People believe the United States is the most influenc influential country in the world that influence should be maintained. How does that coincide that we should pull back from these things. How do they reconcile that, that pulling back will not only maintain but will increase influence since thats what they want. Let me take a stab at that. There are two things going on. I think theres a general strong support for the belief that alliances are an effective way and then its a highly effective tool in terms of the view of helping achieve the american foreignpolicy goal. Trump supporters more strongly than others believe that it has been too long to bear the burden of those alliance whether its in europe or asia and its time for them to do more. Thats a sentiment americans have shared since about 1952 and has been part of American Folklore to get allies to pay more, not always successful. I spent four years banging my head on the table in brussels trying to get them to spend more and not always successful. President campaigned on each and made it aware that the time for allies to do more is necessary. Should they hold our commitment should we use the former traditional way of diplomacy to get the allies to pay more. Trump supporters overwhelmingly think we should withhold a commitment, but other supporter supporters, other non trump republicans and democrats and independents think its 60 plus that we should use persuasion and diplomacy. This is a valid debates were having. To what extent can the United States use its power and leverage. We always agree more they need to pay more for defense as a proposition. Maybe the tactics of the president , unconventional as they may be, and they may be the kinds of ta tactics that will get the results we are finally wanting to see. All in order to have a strong alliance. Couple thoughts, i think the fact that were engaged in our longest war in history in afghanistan and over three presidencies there has not been the ability to contain or freeze actions of north Koreas Nuclear capability have affected all of us. There questioning whether or not the policies are working well enough and that is about the congress. My view is congress fell apart in 2011 when i left, but Mike Gallagher is here to resurrect it. Congress has done something lately insisting on maintaining article five of the nato treaty which the president came around to. First she didnt embrace it and then he did. So its not just President Trump and whatever he may believe and his views have shifted some, but there is a coequal branch of government that has people in it with long experience. Mike gallaghe gallagher doesnt look 90 years old but hes had extensive military experience and been a National Security advisor. Voices like yours will be very important there. I wanted to quickly say, the reason we came into the examination of alliances and what americans actually think of alliances is that President Trump has put forth , the way he described them as its a zerosum that United States should be getting more out of it and the allies are taking advantage of it. We asked questions about who benefits the most from alliances. Show you a quick one. These are our alliances in europe. Ill talk about the overall number on the far right. We tested the idea that lets see if americans think other countries are getting the better end of the stick for our alliances with europe, and actually americans do believe that the United States and our allies benefit, 53 , or that they say the United States mostly benefits. There are differences that you can see between the partisans, but overall the majority believes that. So, they do seem to understand that we get some security benefits from having these partnerships abroad. For a long time, polls have shown that americans think nato is essential to u. S. National security. They might not understand all of it but they have a general sense that we are safer because of all of it. Maybe President Trump street and calling nato absolutely did raise awareness, certainly he did a lot more in conversation than politicians usually do. I want to move on to trade and immigration. First i want to go back to something that jane said about congress pushing on the article five, and looking more broadly at congresses influence. It mustve been said that theres a lot of people inside the National Security cabinet that were also pushing for confirmation of the commitment. When you see these figures, you see how people divide up in terms of what they think, could you come in the house in particular, could you divide republicans up in the same way . Is Congress Representative of the opinion in the poll. I would divide it differentl differently. I think within the Republican Caucus i do think theres a divide. Theres a bigger divide on these issues between fiscal park and the defense hawks. Theres a lot of people who consider themselves to be both but dont want to do the math on where we have to make di