Good morning. Welcome to interamerican dialog. I direct the rule of law program. Almost three years ago president s obama and castro embarked on a historic opening on relations between the United States and cuba. Two days ago the Trump Administration announced a series of regulatory changes designed to partially roll back the Obama Administrations strategy of maximizing engagement with the people of cuba and a few months from now, cuba will undergo a historic leadership transitioning with a morebund economy and demographic challenges and a relationship with the United States rapidly deteriorating as President Trumps attacks on diplomates. And a suspension of Visa Services in havana prevented us from bringing a speaker from cuba to participate in todays discussions. To help us make sense of whats happened in the future months and what it might happen in the future of the United States and cuban relations, were privileged to welcome to the dialog three distinguished friends and colleagues with decades of experience working on cuba. To my immediately left. Emily is the director of center for democracies in americas, served in the Obama Administration at the National Security council and Cuban Affairs at the state department and previously a provincialal stf member. And mike is the assistant professor of latin America History in specializing in cuba. And the cuba revolution. And jorge is the professor for study of mexico at Harvard University and chair of the Harvard Community for international and area studies, the author or editor of various books, and former president of the matlin America Studies Association and not least a member of the interamerica dialog. Id like to quickly acknowledge our partners over 4 Million People in cities around the globe have enjoyed the Award Winning photographers. And we welcome on the edge series, and youll see these cycling through throughout the discussion today and we want to acknowledge the support of the for Ford Foundation without whom this event would not have been possible and id like to acknowledge two of my colleagues at the dialog, a professor, and a cubanamerican lawyer who provides invaluable support to the rule of law program. Finally if anybody that is here, coffee and donuts was not provided by a group. And well open this up for discussion and have plenty of time for your questions and comments. Emily, lets start with you. Great, thanks. Sort of put u. S. Cuba relations on a line graph with engagement on the y axis, it would be a jagged line for sure. Weve taken two steps forward, one step back, one step forward, two steps back, over several decades, but the longterm trendline is decidedly in the upward direction. And this time last year, so october, 2016 the Obama Administration released the sixth of six of round of regulatory changes, governing u. S. Cuba sanctions. And in each round of regulatory changes was designed to increase the flow of people, goods and information to and from cuba. And these are couched in a larger policy of engagement over two years, during the final two years of the Obama Administration. The u. S. And cuban governments met regularly and engaged on a number of issues and ultimately signed almost two dozen Bilateral Agreements and these agreements have some issues, such as Law Enforcement information sharing, cooperation on health, and designating sister, marine protected areas, these are wideranking discussions on a number of issues. And so i say this time last year, were on a pretty steep, steep part of the line graph in the upper direction. And more than anything, those two years of rapid progress toward normalization proves that the u. S. And cuban governments can cooperate and that their cooperation can bear fruit and i think thats important. It wasnt a sure thing that this cooperation could bear fruit. If you look ats last three years, weve seen that that affected this. This week, everyones aware and michael just mentioned it, that weve had a downward tick on the line graph, with the release of new regulations governing cuba sanctions. The Treasury Department and Commerce Department govern the implementation of sanctions toward cuba and released some new rules that will, in part, roll back and in part change travel to u. S. Travel to cuba and the Financial Transactions with which u. S. Entities can participate in cuba. And then the state department in concert with this released a list of 180 prohibited entities with whom u. S. Persons cannot engage in Financial Transactions. This announcement was the fulfillment of a june announcement that President Trump made in miami where he directed departments and agencies to begin to address these rules so weve been expecting them for some time. In fact, i would argue that the downward tick that weve seen this week is, in fact, not very severe and ill get into why. But the specific changes that were announced this week with regard to travel, individuals were previously able to travel under the people, the people category and are not allowed to do so however, allowed to travel as individuals under the support for cuban people category. Theres a new definition that allows for people to stay at private bed and breakfasts, eat at private restaurants and theres a requirement that individuals do a Little Something else to constitute a fulltime itinerary under this category, but individuals can still travel to cuba, i think thats the big take away. Theres also, most notably, i think, the state Department List of 180 entities are a number of hotels where individuals cannot stay, a number of stores in old havana where individuals cannot shop. A number of Government Entities with whom u. S. Businesses cannot do business. And in the coming days and weeks, and i know that its already happened in many respects, lawyers will be pouring over new rules to determine what are the avenues for continued engagement. Its important to note that engagement can continue and a lot of what the progress over the last three years has been preserved. We still have a u. S. Embassy in havana and the cubans have an embassy in washington. Americans or u. S. Travelers can still travel to cuba and enjoy a lot of the flexibility that was implemented during the Obama Administration. General licenses, for example. Everybody 0 often times, travelers dont have to seek permission, they can selfcertify and that remains in place. Dialog will continue. The u. S. And cuban governments said they would continue to dialog and areas of mutual interest. Its not by any means close to a full reversal of the engagement that weve seen over the recent years. And all of this comes at a time where there is considerable momentum. The u. S. Travelers are continuing to travel to cuba. In may of this year, we already reached the mark of the number of u. S. Travelers to cuba for the entire calendar year of 2016. This comes at a time when theres congressional momentum. Bipartisan congressional momentum. Representative Rick Crawford introduced a bill for the use of financing in agricultural sales and there are now 44 republicans in the house than bill. And the vote to lift the travel ban, 55 on that bill. Thats a majority. I think its important to realize theres a steady path of momentum from travelers, to congress, and also the private sector. Last week we saw john deere and caterpillar sign pretty big deals at the trade fair in havana and that demonstrates that there is there may be some negative news and negative rhetoric coming out of the u. S. Government, but it cant quite put back in the bottle what was unleashed over the last two and a half years. But there are challenges and i think well hear more about those in a little bit from other panelists, but the, you know, for example, theres a leadership transition in cuba coming up in february and we dont yet know what that will bring. And also, we are operating currently at skeleton staff, the u. S. Embassy in hanania havana and theres an Ongoing Investigation into those systems. And you know, the u. S. Has drawn down our diplomates from havana and its important to understand, issued a travel warning alongside it, but the travel warning in many respects is figured bureaucratically by the drawing down of our diplomates. The next step that the u. S. Took to expel cuban diplomates from washington. Seems to be a bit of a step too far or at least a step that begs the question why, in the midst of an Ongoing Investigation, did the u. S. Government ask the Cuban Embassy to draw down their diplomates and do so in a way where they handed a list, reportedly handed a list of 15 specific names to the Cuban Embassy, names that gutted the commercial section and consulate of the embassy in washington. Investigation into the arguably serious symptoms by our diplomates is ongoing and we dont know yet what will turn up. I say that to note while we have taken a step back or are on the downward path of the line graph right now. Its not quite as bad as it could be. But there are some challenges on the horizon. Terrific. Thanks, emily. Mike, lets go to you. Thanks so much, good morning. Thanks so much for the dialog for having me and having this event. I was asked to focus my opening remarks on the cubanamerican community, now they, we i should say, as part of it fit into the present picture of hu u. S. Cuban relations and how we are affected by some of what was mention. There are vocal voices that are behind the recent changes announced just yesterday so that begs the question, is there a consistency there that supports these efforts or are there other voices . Let me just start with some context. For the past, i think, approaching 20 years, the university where i worked, has conducted a rigorous hole poll and it shows theres a steady trendline of shifting opinion on matters of u. S. Cuban policy. There is Strong Community support in the cubanamerican community for the right of all americans to travel to the islands. Theres majority support for ending the embargo. Theres particularly strong support, almost universal, i would say, for the right of cubanamericans to travel to the island to see family whenever they wish. So its not surprising of the changes implemented in u. S. Cuban relations and u. S. Cuban policy since june, this is one that hasnt been touched and i dont think that thats a mistake or a coincidence. Before the Obama Administration one of the other real restrictions in place was a severe limitation on the cubanamericans particularly to see the islands and visit their families. And the Obama Administration got rid of that early on before 2017. And those against engagement in miami recognize its a political loser for them to tell constituents could go see mine. Theres a way that the cubanamerican community is not changed. Their aeblt to travel to the island remains free and unfettered. And i think it goes to a dynam dynamic, the broader noise in u. S. Cuban relations may not resonate enough as far as theyre impacted. But there are ways theyre affected by recent developments. To the extent that there are less u. S. A flowing economy, grow of people, goods, money, may also be impacted. Cubanamericans that travel to the island dont only go to hug mom, they go to bring cash. On the order of several billion dollars a year in remittances that these folks support their loved ones. If you have a rich, Trans National economy, a sector by suitcase and also the black market. When people are bringing stuff on planes that they do, if we see u. S. Airlines cutting back on flights, if we see less this, versus impacting the Small Business sector. That might slow some of that motion in so far as its connected to particularly the tourist sector. The most important consequence that i would argue that the cubanamerican community is going to feel, is a reflection in the reduction of staff both at the u. S. Embassy in havana and here in washington. The end of the wet footdry foot policy the wanes days of the Obama Administration was a tough pill to swallow for cuba in general although everybody saw it coming. This was kind of a selffulfilling process. And the cubans were eventually to pave the way. So, cubans began to leave the island in really record numbers, highest in 30 years, sort of the attitude was, if youre going to go, youve got to go now and that of course, only accelerated the speech in which it would come to an end. If thats a bitter pill to swallow, cubans had a tough time beau understanding where its coming from. Whats happening now with the u. S. At embassy and no conflict there, that closes yet another avenue of outmigration and not just out migration, but travel, the number of visitors veez is as they were getting to come to the United States was not unsubstantial and businesses were left in limbo. I think i read the u. S. Concord in half van na had the largest number of visa applications, maybe Something Like 100,000. And now its totally uncheer whats going to happen there. The state Department Said that visas moved to bogota, colombia, not a practical solution. For many reasons, for reasons that the cubans need to get to colombia and enough money in the bank. When you apply you dont necessarily get a decision right away. What is the cuban supposed to do, go back to havana and then go back. I think this is going to lead you sharply of the amount of kuhn bans coming to the United States and this has implications what is between the u. S. And cuban governments dating back to the 90s, and there was an issue of 20,000 travel documents for people to travel and i have a hard time figuring out how viable with that theyre going to meet that mark. Theyve also still not made clear whether theres going to be any process for issuing visitors visas and slows down this kind of transnational flow. So, this does have serious impacts, this is an area i would say of kind of political vulnerability for representatives from miami who are defending this policy change, but these constituents are really suffering these practical effects. In miami, its completely possible to be a member of any political party, to have voted for the current president or not. And still believe that you want to bring your sister over to come live with you. And so, i think to the extent that this drags on, this is going to be a real problem and i hope that constituents will tell their representatives about. Everybody regardless of your citizenship status. And those are u. S. Citizens have the right to vote. Ive often thought that as much effort and resources are put into support for engagement in washington, id like to see folks do a Voter Registration drive. I think that would help the cause. I think as i said already humans are not single issue voters. Its possible to voted for trump and not support his cuba policy. I would also say this electoral time may be changing. 20 team will be interesting in miami. For many of you know the longtime representative Ileana Roslehtinen is retiring and that race is quickly shaping up to be a rather dynamic one, one democrats think they can flip. The field is incredibly crowded. Hard to predict where thats going to end up but if that seat flips, that could have significant consequences for u. S. Policy. I would agree, last thought, the rollback which seemed under the Trump Administration is significant and it was a real effects but it also nothing close to a complete cancellation of the deal quoteunquote. So i think for those of us who believe in the value of engagement theres still space to work and to continue to push and advocate for that agenda. Thanks, mike. Im delighted to be back at the interamerican dialogue once again to chat about a topic that is successfully the mother in many ways. The conversations of the sort have been going on for a very long time. I thought in molise idea was particularly helpful in that sense emilys i did. The way i would like to use my remarks, perhaps not my usual mode but i think its helpful. How can the president s policies advance the president s goals . And so my own views will i hope be clear to you along the way but it seems to me thats a good way to frame it because this is the president of the United States and we are thinking about the president s goals and the president s policies. To begin with the things he has said including over the last few days that he cares about the value, the utility, the importance and the rights of the u. S. Base near the cuban city of one tolerable. Whether the role of the base guantanamo will or will not expand is unclear to me but it would almost continue as a prison for some indefinite period of time. And for that purpose beginning with bush 41 and continuing under clinton, bush 43 and obama and continuing now, there has been an effective cooperation between the u. S. And cuba armed forces, and the reason for that is all sides have a similar interests. The u. S. Doesnt want the prisoners to get after the cubans dont want the prisoners to get in and, therefore, to advance the president s goals with regard to guantanamo i