Good evening. My name is tom. Im a member of the Clements Department of history. I cannot tell you what a delight it is for me to welcome you tonight on the special location. Before we get underway want to express our appreciation for the george w. Bush library. Theyre cosponsoring this event with us in cspan which is taping the lecture. Were happy to have general patrick, director of the bush library. I want to direct your attention to a major event on december 7 peter baker will be the guest to talk about his book, obama the call of history. The dj trip for june 2018 is fully subscribed were taken names and you may know that weve established a dedicated Scholarship Fund for this program so no student should miss the chance to take this journey because of financial need. You like to make a contribution we would be thrilled. Its a personal pleasure to present the speaker. Hard to believe it was five years i must say, it was almost as if he had been waiting for our call. We really lucked out. Not just an outstanding scholar and teacher, an outstanding citizen of this university. Is the chief are not the sole reason. This was his idea and among other things this features the last author is dealing with the consent motion the highly competitive postdoctoral fellowship and chose applicants from all over the United States and has become the highly coveted ashley recognized award. He things briefly you may not know about him. As an aspiring scholar who got us started Cornell Walter in my opinion is one of the 45 gratis diplomatic historians and he was jeffs initial mentor. Then he went to get his phd concentrating on this cold war. Those fall by a postdoc at yale. His first book published in 2007 was the cold war 37 feet. It won the paul price. His first foray into bush 41 studies occurred in 2008 when he had the president s private daytoday account as the president s private server it, the making of a global president opens a unique window onto this crucial time in u. S. China relations. He wrote us bonded introduction. Meanwhile he directed a Research Team the reviewed and made available 150,000 documents from that archive. With another team he conducted oral history interviews with the top members of the administration. All of which has brought his endeavors to a great culmination. Is a brilliant research, wonderfully wellwritten volume that is sure to become a work on the subject and a major landmark not to mention a bestseller. Please welcome our beloved kelly, jeffrey aaron. [applause] i help my mom heard all of that. Thank you for coming out tonight. Its an honor to look at a crowded room of people for people who been so enthusiastic and its truly humbling as well. Many of you have open germs to us as we have been here the last five years. We look forward to much more with you. Im glad tom said this is the culmination. Thank you for coming. They want to do this tell you about George Hw Bush in the and of the cold war. Its a. That we remember fondly for the most part. We remember it is be in the climax of the democratic experience. Think back to the fall of 1989 in countries throughout europe and that even the soviet union itself turned toward democracy turned toward freedom and free markets. We saw that movement occur in china as well. This movement strung out from the youth of the country. It was such enthusiasm throughout the world for the concept of democracy that a man named francis became instantly famous which for scholars hard to do, instantly famous by writing this study entitled the end of history. The least understood title in all of history. Most presume that rings are so great but what he is really saying is all of Human History had been a struggling competition to try to decide how we as human beings should organize herself as a society and government. We tried roman empires and kings, we had even whittled it down to three. Like the great ncaa bracket. Yet democracy, communism, fascism. The cold air war was the finals and we won. The review of the book said the most important thing was that we won and isnt it wonderful. The entire world was turning in a democratic way. The in the history having now seen this theres no need for competition going forward. Mr. To become flicks that he argued is when the play out so pretty happy thought. Whats interesting is that it was a bestseller and he wrote the book so i think its clearly the bestselling book ever written on this came out late february about four weeks after George Hw Bush said the same thing at his inauguration. If you look at what george bush was saying, he said we know what works, freedom works. We know how to make more prosperous society. We know how to live in the human spirit. That freedom was the global norm. Its only a matter of time before the entire world comes to see it this is really important for understanding who george bush was. He fully believed in what i just told you he said. The freedom worked on that free society has produced the best human outcomes. He never questioned it. If you asked george bush what freedom meant to advocate you and say it means freedom. If you say why free markets because theyre the best. The reason is fundamental to who he was is because he was a leader who grew up during the great high point of all that america came to offer. He was a player during world war ii is when you see a man through Global Leadership and didnt let go. The story of his life in many ways is a story of success. He came from a remarkably successful family and he went to the best schools best training and was successful throughout his entire life. For example, after being a decorated war hero he was a successful businessman thing became a Party Organizer he also had been a congressman and then United Nations ambassador for the United States. Then head of the Republican National committee. Bender factor u. S. Ambassador to china and then eight years as vice president. Thats a pretty good resume and pretty good trajectory. So from his perspective america worked. During this time he found them not working lets say during vietnam, his diagnosis was that theres not something wrong with the idea, only with the implementation. As long as we go back to our central values none further expanded upon everything will turn out wonderfully. Bush took over the presidency and 89 at a moment where it look like the entire world was flowing. The idea that the world return democratic only a few years before wouldve gotten you laughed out of any room. In 1985, 1983 president Ronald Reagan declared the soviet naval empire and talked about launching a crusader fire to this free world when he used the word communist would must always use the word godless in front of it. Is antithetical. And reagan had launched a jihad essentially against the communist world pumping up military spending and moral condemnation of all things. The result was nearly the destruction of the entire world. One thing that we have subsequently found out was just how close we all came to dying. At least twice during 1983 there about that far from the button. Theres a because soviet officials had an odd habit of listening to what an american president set and believe in it they believed reagan when they said he was going through so when the soviet protected the maneuvers sometimes they looked a little bit too realistic and sometimes her fingers got too close to the button. In fact, it appeared as though the soviets were listening. 1985 they brought the power man unlike any way been there before. Gorbachev, a new person who promised not just to build a Better Society puts reform soviet society. It would appear to americanize as though gorbachev and the russian response was a direct response to it reagan had said. If you believe that, youre fundamentally wrong. Most people probably believe that. Theres two points away to make where all get angry stairs back. We have a notion that Ronald Reagan won the cold war. By calling out the soviets, by recognizing the fundamental flaws and straining them. But this arms race who would show the soviets they could not keep up and because that they will surrender. And because they recognize that they cannot keep up and they decided to reform and surrender they built up a large american narrative that this is all because of reagan. Reagan in this context was although the person calls for the sun to rise and when it rose to credit. Because reagan said we will build up and they will collapse. What we now know from the documents. In the iron curtain one thing that was fun was to see all the documents we at one point had more documents under review then all the other president ial libraries combined is one of the she thing should be true. They verified thats actually true. So that has given us the opportunity to understand whats been going on throughout the world and all the capitals in east berlin and most importantly moscow to try to understand why this ended the way it did. One of the most important things we found out is the son did rise but only because gorbachev was pushing it. Gorbachev was a unique leader in history. He decided not just to recognize a problem but to do something about it. The series of soviet leaders had come to the conclusion that their system was not working. They knew their falling behind, and more importantly, they look to western europe, the region in which russian leaders have for centuries long to become a part of europe. I like to be accepted in europe. In fact, they had good numbers on this and were able to calculate that at the spring of 89 the total soviet Food Consumption level for the average citizen was about where it was in 1917. After that entire experience theyve been right back where they started. You should remind yourself that reagan did not come into power until 81. The soviets brought the power, a series of geriatric leaders. They had an oppressive leader in his day in a series of individuals who were basically a geriatric leadership and mindset for their country. The best way to understand the sense that they knew something was wrong refused to do something is in the following choke. You wouldve heard this in moscow in the 80s. The joke goes like this. s doll on in kershner for riding on the train together the train stops and they said how can we get this moving again stella says its simple, we gather the peasants, we should have the other half will be intensified to move the trade. They said all we have to do is denounce the previous train driver then everything will be fine. They talk about that and say i have an easier solution. We need to pull down the window shade, rock back and forth and pretend that were moving. And that tells you everything you need to know until gorbachev comes in and says were going to change the system by bringing in a new form of democracy and in the spirit of openness. We will become more western. But we are not going to lose her soviet communist identities. We know that what gorbachev sets in motion was the demise of the soviet union. That was not his plan. The plan was to save the soviet union and then to do something that was quite critical. He began to talk about common european home which is to say we know we cannot keep up with the west not because of what theyre doing, they might be bothering us a little bit were gonna try to save military spending for Better Things to invest in were trying to lower tensions to justify decreasing military spending. But were after this common european home in which we could remove the barriers separating us and find effusion of soviet socialism and western european socialism in which we take care of the individual all you do is show how good we are so ultimately will be asked to join europe. Which is going through its own changes because its developing its final framework for the european union. This idea that after world war ii policymakers looked at the past history and recognize that twice they tried to commit a suicide. The expectations they would not survive a third time. The reason for their fascination with killing people and each other was because of nationalism. They saw themselves as two separate. If we fuse our politics will be able to do something fundamentally more important wheels to become german and french and british and when that glorious day happens will and the problem of war. And gorbachev said yes, thats the mission we want. Heres when george bush comes back and because the situation i just described which we look back on now we know it turned out peacefully. And we know that they said Ronald Reagan is responsible. But the story is dangerous because the collapse of the soviet union and of european communism is fundamentally and nothing less than the collapse of the empire the soviets had a political, ideological that rolled over other countries. In the global influence and global reach. Throughout history i challenge you to find another case of a major empire declining and collapsing without it suing great power for fact, you cant find another case where you can run that experiment says we think about everything that turned out well went to you to think about how fundamentally dangerous this moment was. This moment of soviet transformation of identity and politics and of the entire empire. A process that had never occurred. That is what george bush gets to inherit when he takes office. I know everybodys fully aware of my love for Ronald Reagan. Thank you for laughing, sir. Heres another reagan idea. You might recall reagans strategy for winning the cold war was, we win, they lose. This is ted cruzs favorite strategy for anything. I like to point out thats a desperation of strategy. In reagans case is an interesting question after they lost, what happens next . Reagan never asked himself what they actually look like. George bush gets the ashes. He comes to power and 89 when most American Security analyst to come to the conclusion that Ronald Reagan had gone too far. Its fascinating to go back and look at the primaries and see just how far every person is trying to distance themselves from like reagans legacy. They thought he had been too trusting. He looked at gorbachev in the eye and believed he was meaning the reforms he wanted. Reagan have become frightened and decides hes going to reach out his hand and gorbachev reach out to. They both begin this incredible dance of opening up the possibility of change. And then reagan retired. You cant blame them for that one leaving george bush to take over we have fundamental enthusiasm for democracy around the world breaking out yet policymakers are saying fundamentally scared because we have not seen changes like this since the 1930s. And we all know what happened next. How do we keep from going down that road again. The real fear from gorbachev first three fears. The first is that he might succeed. He could redo the cold war the second great peers there could be a cool launch against him because he was so radically revolutionized in society we would expect communist, the people who have power and didnt want to lose it george bush gets a memo on his desk which says the following, we expect in a moment therell be a counterrevolutionary coup against gorbachev. Bush receives the same menlo until it ultimately becomes true. Significant because it helps us understand his mindset. If he does something wrong everything theyre moving forward to could actually come crashing down because they move too fast. This is the really important fear gorbachev is offering a promising a common european home for the soviets will be accepted into the rest of europe no longer feared in europe will be forever peaceful. You know the problem is, theres no american wing. If europe is not afraid of the soviets, if theyre living peacefully theyre going to say thank you for your service has been there since 1945, we would like you to go home now. Do not actually that popular in europe because nobody likes to have an Occupying Army in the country theres a lot of fire and fury. For example american short range Nuclear Weapons. Think about what i just said. The United States wanted to deploy short range Nuclear Weapons in germany. The phrase that went around was that the shorter the missile the debtor the german. They understood the american armys presence was reason for the soviets to keep their military presence. So bush and those around him feared americans would be asked to go home. He could think of nothing more troubling and dangerous than that. The story i just told you about the way they thought of creating a new Common International society which put the base cause a war to be nationalism in division, those not the american reading. When i say the american reading understand its a reading of history that has direct implications. There were passed down from generation to generation we see people in the Truman Administration all the way up through and into every administration until the one we currently have. Arguing that europeans when left to their own devices, kill each other. That is what they do and they are good at it. Try to find a time when it has not been punctuated or culminated by large, violent tragic war. World war i we tried to do it right. But we went over and save the day. Thats what we do. But then we did something obvious and that is we went home. We had to go do it again. The next time is even worse. Our leaders made a fundamental decision both insightful, brilliant and necessary, we stayed in from the American Perspective there had not been a war in europe cents. You might say to yourself i wonder if thats correlation or causation but why would i run the risk of finding out the experiment. We presumed it was American Power that kept the soviets out cap the german stone. Also kept the europeans from the throats. There will be an arm around this shoulder making sure they walked in the right direction from their big brother. So bush generally feared that if gorbachev was successful the Democratic Movement which he thought was inevitable was a longterm recipe for danger and more. At the moment he finds himself taking office is a democratic search breakin