[inaudible conversations] the microphone is right on you. You have two of them theyll be both here. But theyre not on. Just went on right now. [laughter] all right ladies and gentlemen how are we tonight in so welcome to the American Writers Museum i would like to get everybodys attentions as we have a special guest with us tonight. The American Writers Museum is where we celebrate the impact that writers have had on American History and our culture and our daily life now on our wall and exhibit heres here at m fiction and spirituality and politics, and it is not a hyperbole to say that many of them wrote words that changed the course of history. From Thomas Jefferson declaring independence to wells demanding accountability americans writers have forever challenged the status quo, and advocated fearlessly for the rights of all to be heard. Awm surprise bookshelf series shows a man work and words held government accountable this a new book be doomsday machine is latest chapter many a lifetime of confronting power mr. Daniel elsburg. [applause] tonight hes in conversation with rick, journalist and author who political call the chronicaller of the American Conservative Movement because of his books before the storm, nixon land and under the bridge. Please welcome tonight, danielle elsburg and rick. Thank you all. [applause] thank you kiry its great to be here at americas literary culture and, of course, its mice to be here with one of my heros Daniel Elsburg honor to have him here because when the events that he writes about many this book begin, when he basically squirreled away thousands and thousands of pages of documents about Americas Nuclear command and control system in tan dem releasing thousands of pages of documents about the lies of that america told medical in order to created sustain the vietnam war. He expected to spend the rest of his life in jail. He knew this, and he proceeded nonetheless in our interest and in the worlds interest. So before we do anything else, i think we should acknowledge the courage, the vision, and the sacrifice of this man Daniel Elsburg. [applause] hes in jail east here and hes writing a book the book hes written is exquisite extraordinarily well constructed and well put together, and it takes subject that our highly technical an highly obscure and which had the powers that be rely on us believing to be highly tactical an highly obscure and renders them exquisitely crystal line pros. When i embarked on the project of interviewing dan for latest issue of esquire magazine, one of the first people i turned to was an author named fred way back in the 1980s wrote a book called wizard of armageddon which told a portion of the story were going to hear tonight. And i said fred, have you read this book . He said yes i have. Its outstanding. And hes reviewed it in the magazine and i said what is new about this book . What is daniel tell us about how the news clear system works in america that we didnt know before and what he told me was that this is really the first book that has put the whole system together explained how it works from beginning to end. And that it demonstrates that the very existence of a Nuclear Arsenal of the necessity set in motion a logic that creates a doomsday machine. Everything about it that is worth criticizing is inherent feature of the logic of the whole system. This is what it is. This is what it leads to. Thats fred kaplan had, the expert on nuclear wars. Yes, and to quote dans book he gives absolutely astonishing account of the cuban missile crisis, and how that came exquisitely close to ending most life on earth. Dan estimates that there will be one on two percent left so its not really it shall extinction precisely an engineer you say this well not quite. So he says it wouldnt bring us that but brought us probably be 40 or 50 Million People left. But anyway after he narrates this he says this. The danger to humanity of Nuclear Weapons does not rest solely or even mainly on the possibility of further proliferation of such weapons to quote un, quote, rogue or unstable nations. Who would handle and threaten them less quote unquote responsibly than the permanent members of the security counsel nor u does it rest merely on on boundary of the weapon states of israel, pakistan, north korea what is a true history of the cuban missile crisis reveals is that existence of masses of Nuclear Weapons this hands of leaders of the superpowers the United States and russia even when those leaders are about as responsible humane and cautious as anyone we have seen pose then and still do intolerable dangers to the survival of civilization. I would like to begin our discussion in the summer of 1958. You have just taken a job at the iran corporation Extensive Research and development for air force think tank, and in a very arrest image you talk about what happened on a certain moon list might. Well reason it was significant that it was a moonless night was that i was reading then i was trying to read my way many and top secret and secret mostly secret documents at that time. And the sense of last to being an merchandiser and seaing the way it looked from outside. So i was spending really 7 hours week pretty much seven days week reading this stuff late at night and reading into it. And hypothetical soviet surprise attacks in great detail to which the people who found smarter group if that ever encounters a grouch people were con veined that soviet on basis of estimate in air force in particular but National Intelligence as well were concern racing to produce the capability to destroy the u. S. Specifically to destroy our ability to retaliate our deteernt capability theyve been first to put up an icbm effectively by missile that could reach Ballistic Missile the kind that North Vietnam is striving for. North korea. Whanch did i say . Wrong adventure. Right. Thank you. [laughter] right and North Vietnam did not acquire such capability. But north korea is trying to get an icbm and might come to that. We will come become to that. A similarity between their reasons i think for wanting to do that. And for chrisss reason for wanting to put Medium Range Missiles in range of the United States. 195 so coming back to 58 were going towards hundreds of them at a time that we did not really have any and it wasnt thought they have them in 58 but by 59 might have a couple hundred would be with muff to destroy ive seen dircht figures on that but figure we used at the time was 26 depends on what you count as major, major basis in the what was called z. I. All zone of the interior. The American Homeland not including alaska. But readers suddenly youre a threat. So what i was reading is a report saying that they would want to coordinate their taig with intercontinental Ballistic Missiles which by the way were initially called ibm. And a corporation objected o that so they became icbm, and just as by the way, the center for International Affairs at harvard that had i was spending a lot of time at run by krising jeer they change it from cia to center four international cifia same idea. So the idea was, though, that they would be hitting with the icbm into the interior in our basis. But that they would coordinate that attack with short range or medium range cruise missiles from submarines on our coastal basis and on a command and control and submarine would be very close in, and have very short flight tile is they gave essentially no warning time. That phenomenon is still a factor in our analysis on both sides. So okay whats going to be a coordinated attack and they said best time for such a attack would be in august for various weather conditions and so forth when on the night about midnight coordinating this, and i looked out of my window right above mussel beach in santa monica, looking out at the ocean it was a moonless night and it was about midnight i looked at my watch, and this verbal expression that hairs on back of my head rising i remember that from a time a chill actually thinking this could be the night. You know, basically and or a night like this in any case so i was expecting almost to see subs out at sea i could see them because it was cruise missiles they didnt have Ballistic Missiles on submarines they would be on the surface. So i looked out looking, looking for subs but that was a that was a time also probably saw this in the book where the youngest members of the Department Ellen and i from m. I. T. Were offered by people actually mixture tii Crest Insurance where iran paid most of the premium actually. More it was very good retirement insurance. Neither of us signed up because it didnt seem there was a chance that we would pay off [laughter] on that. Retaliation if we could convince him that we would be capable under such a attack for a heavy, heavy retaliation to deter them and we would try to save us and save the world from a soviet nuclear surprise attack from war gone in that fashion. That seemed like greatest danger in the world and we were privileged to work long hours obsessed with a subject of how to avert that. But highest level of devotion and highest level of Energy Concern with a trust that you narrate the course of the book becoming a little more complicated and what im thinking about is one of the reasons why it seemed credible to you that the soviet union might launch this first strike against the United States and had the capacity to do so us not having the capacity to retaliate in time was that there was a very strong belief in the air force and other Intelligence Services that there was something known as a missile gap so why dont you what that was start that because as a i say we i think our first missiles operational were in 1961 if im not mistaken and before 1960 or so we county have icb m. We didnt have those numbers im talking about ours but the thought that they would have hundreds and by 60 at the latest 1960s that they would have perhaps 300 general head of Strategic Air command said in 1960 actually that he thought they had 300. And herman conmy colleague who where a book on nuclear war, and who according to the concept the machine as a hypothetical concept, he was estimating about 300 with the notion that would suffice to prevent our retaliation possibly nothing else qowld come. But a premise of that was why we believe that so much . That all of the intelligence agencies and before defense army navy, and air force, and the cia, all shared a premise with my mentors and wolf and others, all anticommunist as i was a very much cold warrior but premise was that not only there but in his successor we were facing essentially hitler with Nuclear Weapons. And very much the premise that just as hitler had been on World Domination many first domination of asia, that that only congress you mentioned but nathan wrote the operational cold of the communists and a notion that they were total obsessed with idea of taking over by threat by hitler in the 30us or by attack by actual attack and thats what we were facing. Over the world. Taking over the world. Essentially the world World Domination and next built in that logics was that what was in their way . Well the United States was in their way on this. And so we werent threatening them but they want us out of way and field would be clear, and that they might even would coldblooded calculating communist nathan would write willing to sacrifice considerable numbers of their own people. Now, let me say right away, i think looking back on it, that was an extreme falsification lived through world war ii. But the idea was actually say well they lost 20 Million People in world war ii and look at them now. They came through that very well. Now, when i say that, im saying when i said thinking like that to a russian leader they would almost vibrate like we were invaded we suffered this going in russian coming german coming in and fighting out both ways the idea of repeating world war ii is just what happened is this entire logic is based upon the idea that they have a capability to do so. But you found some what im just saying but capability and that missile gap and what happened to missile gap . Well, in 19 stop in corona and i think the corona satellite. Okay. Our actual capabilities were known only to a couple people. Half dozen or so. They didnt know except for this half dozen who have involved in the film about the you two fight from 56 a flying on and what they have until 1960 were able to shoot down. Then, that was replaced by settling which are still operating o of course very much and we use youtube but over russia are various places. Okay. People of didnt know this except or for this handful maybe a dozen at the very most out of 500 professionals. Knew of this that we knew anything about what was going on in the ground and from the photography. It in 61 i was out at Strategic Air command in headquarters in omaha, and spoke to a colonel i had known back in the pent imon who was mow cheer of war plan. And he said, you know what the old man thomas power thinks they have . You know, whats that . A thousand. What was dramatic was what the ci airings and estimating at that time about and the air force estimating about 160 so this was a lot more. And that was in august 1961. Well in september, came in based on total overall photography from the settling. Havevery few people have. Almost no one had. And i was told about it. You know its in the book but i wouldnt go into it right now in detail. There was a leak i wasnt supposed to be told but i was told about this new estimate and the basis for it which i was not able to communicate with something i was not supposed to know and fact that i knew it would expose like a journalist of sources. Would expose a person told me. And what soviets had was four not a thousand. [laughter] and note 160 and not 120 and some other estimate an actually army and navy had been estimating for two years that they have only a handful. And the air force people that i was talking to regarded them as traitors that they were so determined not to give the air force a basis for asking for a lot of missiles of our own but prepared to underestimate you know what the soviets had to o this extreme degree putting our country in danger. It was just normal almost conceivable treason but they taught me that word but they have the u2 had not seen them and satellite had not seen them but there was Overall Coverage cover another thing, million september. And then they said four. Is what they had, and well that was what you asked. That means that soviet union was stunning, Stunning Development for me actually. I went back. And we mostly operate od the secret level. You know most of the documents we dealt with there was top secret reports and top secret but not so often that we took it very seriously unlike pentagon top secret was everyday thing everything was top secret. So i called for top secret briefing, and khan my colleague there had had always said you have to have sorry what youve seen by the way. Funny scene. Funny in a way. [laughter] its funny i didnt operate with charts. He said you have to have a chart power oingt. But then you didnt have power point and so charts with bullet bullet equation complicated stuff. So no very simple on a chart that was the point. So i made some very simple charts and question called it top secret briefing which was unusual and all department heads. And its unlike the pentagon that meant that everybody had to be checked many by a guard and name off make sure that they knew who was there and okay. So i said herman says we should always have a chart and i didnt use charts like tonight, and i said but tonight i have some charts. So i had a flip table hearing. And first and i had letter these myself top secrets. Top secret at the top. And fist chart was yes virginia there is a missile [inaudible conversations] [laughter] second chart is currently wanting ten to 1. Third chart, you know, in our favor. Because we have about 40icbm so their pour. 40 o was not a large number compared to what came later. There was ten times more than they have. Now much more significantly than that really we had 2,000 bombers in range to russia. And strategic bombers. We have missiles on submarines sub line missile cruise missiles tactical bomb rs and they were in range of russia, and in other words, in the immense superiority, and no one believed me. How would you know that . Well how would they know that . I couldnt tell them actually. That was higher than top secret definitely. And i didnt have the clearance for it at that time i did later. For this so i did, i did get it later but u they didnt have it on whole didnt believe it turned everything around thats ridiculous. You know, sort of more than that it raised questions that were not raising at all it took them a long time to come to believe it in a way nef recovered from this buzz it totally turned around this obsession with what but once you have cotoll believe it and they did in washington they didnt have the same problem. Use estimates they questioned the entire so cold war. Chris had not tried to have a first strike camibility yes he could have. His early missiles were very bulky and unreliable. Not going to take over berlin. No he couldnt have aimed he wasnt aiming to have a pierces strike capable which we assumed he was passion mat with having and could have the answer was he could have. But he didnt so who was our adversary and work to their aim and what were they after afterall and what was possible this many the way, for example, another there which by the way applies to north korea right now. You can negotiate with these people, and it was true. You co