Peninsula. This runs one hour, 35 minutes. Chatter ble] good morning everyone, welcome to brookings. Im with the Foreign Policy program. On behalf of my good friend and alleague richard bush and of us here, welcome. Happy new year. Glad to discuss an issue we all know will likely be quite important in the new year and we hope with positive developments. We are all anxious about the state of the north korean prices. In todays discussion, which by the way you can see as being telecast on cspan and also as a japanese translation, todays discussion will begin with some by unitedat was done states and japan respectively with various other realizations and support. This is looking at United States and japanese attitudes toward the crisis across a range of issues. We will begin with that. Panelwe will convene a discussion at which time we will giving hismr. Kudo thoughts to further understand and embellish the japanese conventions. Richard bush, the head of our east Asia Policy Center along with others, he will broaden the discussion to think about south korea, obviously an interested actor in this equation and an important factor and will try to understand a little bit about Public Opinion, politics, and whatnot and finally, i will try to talk a little bit about military options or, in my opinion, the lack of good military options. This will follow naturally from some of the questions in the polling. Let me add a couple more words about our panelists. Chairy is the anwar sadat at the university of maryland, where he is at a distinguished career for many years. He is associated with workings brookings and one of the most eloquent voices at American Relations in the broader islamic world for many years and in recent years he has started a Critical Issues polling effort. That is where we get todays material. This is the first time he has extended in a major way to east asia. Much of that polling begin in the United States. I look very much to the results. There are a few reaffirmations of what you might expect. There are also potential surprises that we will have time to discuss and then have your questions. Sushikudo is the head of emron where he is on poland but also a he has done a lot of polling, but also a practitioner of track two dialogues with a number of countries including china and korea trying to improve japanese relations with those two other northeast asian powers. More generally, International Think tank and been involved in a number of initiatives on that front. Richard bush we have been colleagues here for a number of years. Think richard is the tom brady. Im not a patriots fan, but he keeps reinventing himself and is always outstanding. We really benefit from having him on the panel as well. I am now going to introduce and give the floor to our first speaker. We will have the Panel Discussion and then please join shibley toming brookings. [applause] thanks so much. Good morning to you and thank you for braving the cold to be here. Really appreciate that. This is a pleasure for me. Not only because we are talking about an important issue that concerns all of us, but also because we are partnering with japan to do twofolds, one in u. S. And one in the trying to see how the japanese and americans differ on the issue of north Koreas Nuclear program and beyond that, asia security. Im going to present both the results together so you can see them sidebyside. For that reason, i am not going to show the breakdown in the u. S. Democraticrepublican because we would it would be hard to prepare the same time. I will mention some of them as i go through, but everything is posted online. It is posted on the university of maryland Critical Issues poll website and on the brookings website. Certainly the methodology is posted there but all of the results are posted including the breakdown. Feel free to pursue this after the presentation. If you have questions, there is a lot more data and breakdown as well. Let me start with the polling methodology i have as i said, in japan, a sample of 1000. Our poll, we usually do it with Nielsen Scarborough it is an online panel. A is an online panel and sample of 2000 and among the panel. We also have an oversample of young people just to have more confidence about the what the young people are thinking in the u. S. The methodology is posted and you are welcome to look at. Lets start with one of the first questions that we had. Which of the following do you believe is the most effective way to stop north Koreas Nuclear program . If you look, the blue is japan. The red is the u. S. The most striking thing here is look at the two middle options the one that says stricter sanctions against north korea and military action by the United States and its allies. You see how very few agree with those options. In the case of japan, only 11 think stricter sanctions will work. In the case of the u. S. , 7 . The same thing with the military option, 8 and 11 think those would work for it. Slightly more republicans think that is possible, but 17 so still not huge on this issue. Instead, the u. S. And japan in the case of the u. S. , 35 and the second option is multiparty negotiations. In the japanese, the first option is a little bit stronger than the others, 21 . Direct talks between north korea and the United States and you see at the very bottom, a lot of people think it will not be resolved, particularly the more realistic anyway, you can call it realistic about that. The United States initiating military action against north korea in an attempt to stop its Nuclear Program. Despite the fact that you saw how very few people say it can be solved by military option, when you put the option on the table, you end up getting more people supporting it. It is a minority, only 21 in japan. 33 in the u. S. I think that is quite high when you consider what mike will tell us about the options or what are good options i would love to hear ikes opinion on that. You also find something a little bit more difficult to understand which is that if you breakdown that 33 , the majority of republicans support the military option. 53 . That is very interesting because that is the president s principal constituency. Theyou have 53 who say would support that. The next question, do you think the problem relating to north Koreas Nuclear program will be resolved and if so, when . This is more about optimism or pessimism. It is a way of measuring how people are generally optimistic or generally pessimistic. And lets be clear about that. Look at how pessimistic people are. What you have, a lot of people do not to know. But among those people gave an answer, two thirds of japanese think it will not be resolved and one third in the u. S. Very few people above say its going to be resolved in the next five years so a lot of pessimism. Very few people say north korea has already acquired Nuclear Weapons. People may interpret this in different ways. Even with all of the realism that you see, in a way, a recognition of north Koreas Nuclear reality and at the same time, you find that only 13 of japanese accept recognizing north korea as a nuclear state. 38 of the u. S. Americans are more divided. 37 , 38 , but there is more acceptance. Do you support or oppose japan acquiring Nuclear Weapons if north korea does not give up its own . This is the question of this has been a taboo in japan. You see far more support in the u. S. 33 of americans support that. Only 12 of japanese support it. But one of the things that are a point that mr. Kudo makes no makes in a presentation it looks like more but it looks like it is increasing for people who made prefer to accept that. The same question about whether do you support or oppose south korea acquiring Nuclear Weapons . We have roughly the same in and in japan slightly fewer people, 9 . It is roughly the same result. If north korea does not give up its Nuclear Weapons, do you support the placement of American Nuclear warheads in south korea or japan . Here you have a lot of american supporting that, a slight majority. You still have an opposition in japan. But 21 t surprisingly who support that. There is a difference between democrats and republicans on that issue as with the other issue and i will talk about that on the panel. How do you foresee the likely outcome of the situation on the north Korean Peninsula and the next 10 years . We do not follow it as much here in the u. S. The question is what kind of outcome that is the public perceive for the Korean Peninsula. A few people ranging from one third of americans and 20 of 28 of the japanese say their stability will remain the same roughly. Very few people say north korea and south korea will have reduced their attention and improve their relations. Even fewer say they will be unified. So again, people do not think that relationship is going to profoundly change. They differ on the level of instability really whether it is going to remain the same or it is going to increase in the american side. Think it isle going to get a lot worse. On the american side, people think it is a lot worse and that is striking in comparison to the japanese. In the case of japan, a lot of people said they do not know. How do you think the north korea crisis has affected japans relations with the United States . Again, interesting, because they both have similar perceptions. Over 40 of each public thinks they have been strengthened. Obviously, the people who say they have been weakeend are among the japanese at 4 but it is a bit high for the american side even if it is 20 . You might ask the question, why would even be 20 given that the north korea should be unifying go with japan . When you look at the breakdown by party, you find that democrats are more likely to say than republicans that they have been weakened. It is not just about the relationship improving but is trump dealing with it well. We will see that in a minute because we have specific question about that. What level of military power should the United States maintain in asia . A relevant question, one that we all are grappling with. It is interesting because you have almost half of the American Public, 42 of the japanese public maintaining the same level. In the u. S. , a little bit more. 29 who think we should increase the level 12 in japan. The decrease of support, 13 in japan, 9 in the u. S. But not much more. How do you view the way that President Trump has handled the north Korean Nuclear issue . Now i neednt tell you this but there is a huge partisan divide on this. The independents fall the democrats way on this. You can see here the majority of both the japanese publics and the u. S. Public think the view of the handling is unfavorable. The difference is your very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable. More intense in the u. S. Than it is in japan, but still a majority of 63 of japanese view the handling of north korea unfavorably. As do a majority of the American Public. Which of the following is closest to your view . North Korea Nuclear arms buildup is mostly driven by insecurity. That is just one obvious about,sis people talk that is mostly driven by ambition and aggression. That it is mostly driven by a desire to be fully recognized. Or it is mostly driven by a desire to maintain the regime. You see that a plurality of both publics think it is about them regime trying to maintain power. But they are divided and a lot of others in the middle a quarter believe it is mostly driven by ambition and aggression and a quarter of the japanese think that it is mostly desire to be fully recognized. This is the question that was only in the japanese market and it really had to do with china. Currently, there is discord between china and the u. S. Japan alliance. In the future, do you think a multilateral security mechanism which includes china is necessary in order to bring a stable, peaceful environment in the region . This is one our partners feel in japan, we didnt ask that question obviously. 58 say it is necessary, only 5 say it is not. Hard to interpret that because that is worth discussion hard to interpret that, but that is worth discussion. Which of the following alliances would be the most effective . This is interesting because we tried to ask the question the same way, understanding the japanese think about it a particular way and we think about a particular way. We put the options there, china, japan, south korea. What is interesting is it seems as though the publics in both places like broader multilateral coalitions. If you look at the one as the most embrace, the u. S. China, japan, south korea, russia that has the biggest support. So clearly, more of an embrace of multilateralism in north korea that seems to be the case in both. Please name to countries that you believe pose the greatest threat to world peace and security. This question is an openended question. We do not give names, we did not give anything at all. People can name whatever country they want. It is very interesting to look at that because this is worth real conversation, especially in a lot of the results. Not surprisingly, both the u. S. And in japan, the publics named north korea as number one. In this environment, they see that as the country that threatens world peace more than any other. However, if you look at where the u. S. Is, it is striking because it is number two for the japanese. 43 of the japanese name it as one of the two countries that is most threatening to world peace and security. Remember, this will not add up asked them to we list two countries, not one. If you look at 13 of the American Public, they say that the United States is the biggest threat to world peace and security and edges china on that in terms of people writing it. It does not mean that they dont not think that china is a threat, it is just what comes to their mind. Because if you had to rate each of these countries separately, they may rate china higher. It tells you about how our public is divided on this and you can see the same thing in japan. One reason why this might be so high in japan despite all of the other things we have seen is the following question that i will end up with. Which is, please name two national or World Leaders you think pose the greatest threat to world peace and security. Again, it is an openended question. We do not try to lead them in any shape or form. In japan, donald trump number one followed by kim jongun with 44 . Even in the u. S. , donald trump is roughly tied with putin at number two following the kim jongun who is rated at number one. And i think if you look at, obviously, the complexity of japanese attitudes will be discussed. We have two superb experts on the panel who will tell us more. But i will Say Something general and not so much about japan, we polls, from other donecularly pew, pew has these global polls of perceptions of the u. S. And the president they are shown very clearly that the perception of the u. S. Is highly correlated with the perception of the president. This could be one of the reasons it is so high on the threat of the perception that the u. S. Is one of the two most threatening states to Global Security as a view of the japanese. With that, i will invite my colleagues to join me on the panel and we will have a discussion. Thank you very much. [applause] thank you, shibley, fascinating. What i would like to do is begin this Panel Discussion by turning first to our japanese colleague who was shibleys partner in the polling. Clarifications, embellishments or quick thoughts may have. Before then, turn to richard bush. This is where your translation devices will come in handy and just in case there is any kind of malfunction, i will try very briefly to summarize what we have heard from kudosahn. Our understanding is that this should work with cspan audiences, that you should hear directly the translation into proceeds. That i think we want to be on channel those of correct, with you here, with your devices. Kudosahn, thank you for coming so far. Thank you for your excellent work on this poll. Is there anything that you want to draw our attention to or additional points beyond the excellent presentation . Well, lets see, we did the poll and we released to japanese media in december. It was shocking data for japanese media. Japaneserage society. Japanese society took it as hot news. That . That is an interesting point. That is because america a lot of americans support north korea and recognizing that north korea as a Nuclear Power. Quite a few number. And similar results can be found amongst japanese experts. A lot of japanese experts of recognizinga north korea as a Nuclear Power. But this is a public poll. Public opinion. General public in america supposing that north korea is a Nuclear Power was a big surprise for the japanese. North korea, who is the neighbor to us, nobody knows what the do. Ers might our allies, the american people, recognizing north korea as a Nuclear Power that could possibly dramatically change the alliancestrategy under in any case, it was shocking society. Japanese a lot of media talked about that. But at the same time, there was a lot of americans also supporting japan acquiring Nuclear Power. That was another big surprise. Although predominant supporters come from republican. But that was a very big surprise. That caused a lot of uncertainty and concerns amongst japanese society. And now, there were