Faculty and students and its a real pleasure to be here today. At the finish line of what has been a terrific project for much of the last three years here at the Miller Center. Our first year of project. Were now one yore and one week into President Trumps administration. And we started planning this effort in the spring of 2015 shortly after i arrived at the center but it really came from the Miller Center itself. There was a real question when i came in as the new director here about how we think about the upcoming three years with president ial election looming almost two years out from when i had arrived. And how we thought about taking the extraordinary assetses that we built here over the years at the Miller Center. Our own scholars and practitioners and Current Administration people at the time and future Administration People thats what the Miller Center is. And after several weeks of planning, we came back with this idea got the support of our governing counsel and started to build both human support, Financial Support for the effort. It has been a Terrific Team effort thats brought together all parts of the Miller Center. It built on terrific things that we have done in the past not just our scholarly work but the War Power Commission that was done here in 2009 that was a Bipartisan Group looking at president s role in the constitutional system. And that kind of combination of scholarship and former practitioners was something that we wanted to inject into this project. It was easy to predict that a new president , any new president was going to face immense challenges and we knew that because we looked back at president ial history. Lyndon johnson once said you get one year, you get one year before the Congress Stop it is thinking about you and starts thinking about their own reelection. No matter how big a majority youre elected with. Theyre going to start thinking about what it means for them in the next years midterm both the midterm primaries that will start soon and then the midterm general election. And then on the National Security side, we saw from looking back at history, that every president faces crisis in the first year and crisis comeses at precisely the wrong time when a new team comes into place many of these people may be very experienced but they dont know one the or how to work together. And we saw that in particular in the bush 41 administration and Vice President dick cheney who then was secretary of defense cheney told us in his oral history of that administration. We were probably dick cheney has this wonderful ability to go from being very selfconfident to also being very selfcritical he said on paper we may be the best National Security team ever. And he might be right. The president of the United States had already had eight e years as Vice President , had been the director of the cia has been ambassador to the United Nations. Vice president secretary of defense cheney had already been a white house chief of staff and a Senior Member of congress. Secretary of state james baker had already been secretary of the treasury, had been a white house chief of staff and colin powell the new joint chief of staff had already been National Security advisor. And the list went on and on bob gates was a deputy National Security, and National Security easers kept teasing him that he was going to keep having to do the job until he got it right. And he said we were great on paper until we were presented with a crisis that failed cue in panama and we totally screwed it up. I was giving speech in gettysburg i dont know why the hell baker was and they hadnt established a process so what we wanted to do across domestic and foreign issue was think through systemically how a president does the job in the first year. How do they appoint their cabinet . How do they establish those processes that make an Administration Work . How do they identify their priorities and move forward on those priorities . Particularly legislatively but everyone things that a president can do by executive action . How do they manage that that very difficult two miles between the white house and capitol hill and manage those relationships . We heard jimmy carter told us in his oral history he was elected as an outsider he didnt need the support of his Political Party or lobbying or groups in washington. Now, that sounds very is similar to the year that weve been through. And he said president carter said because i didnt have those relationships, they felt like they were on the outside. And it limited his ability to get some of the things done that he wanted to get done so he wanted to look back across president ial history to assess not just the structure of president ial first years. But what the opportunities and threats for an incoming president were, and to help shape the understanding of the first year for Incoming Administration for the public in general, and it for the washington policy community. As they themselves he is to plan for this moment that comes in sometimes every four years and sometimes with this president every eight years. We wanted to bring together researchers with practitioners and what we were able to accomplish is extraordinary looking back on it we had 60s says available and today were releasing in this book which is a collection of what we believe were the best of those essays. This book was edited by mike nelson on our panel today and stephany mike is senior fellow with us. Stephanie is the assistant director of president ial studies. And jeff who was the director of policy here at the millers center when we started the project was a real designer of the entire effort, and a builder of it as well and now head of the emission and external affair about a mile and a half down the road at the school. And were still delighted to have jeff with us us in part of our family. We were able in coverage and outlets including cnn, fox, time, slate, npr washington times, the Washington Post, more than two dozen first year project events across the country, jeff produced a terrific event at the Reagan Library including an assembly of previous speech writers going back to i think, at least the reagan administration. Not carter right i think reagan, bush, clinton, bush, and obama that went from ken who is probably you know 40 years out from his job to a uva and Miller Center alumni kyle oconnor an obama speech writer listening to Lyndon Johnson recordings to writing for barack obama. We were able to do events that connected prak practitioners anl who cochaired volume on National Security who is a professor here at the Miller Center cohosted first event in washington of the project and second event we launched project and then did an event on National Security in the first year. At the Widrow Wilson center and jeff was a huge part of this event at the Historic Homes and learning centers associated with president s washington, jefferson hoover, kennedy, reagan, bush, and clinton. And then finally we worked with Transition Team both for the Hillary Clinton and donald trump campaign. And this work helped connect about us to the Incoming Administration both in the transition and across the last year. So i want thong all of them and all of you for being part of this ride with us, and i want to start by quickly introducing the panel a few of whom i mentioned already, mike nelson first who is senior fellow with us and teaches at roads college, mike took this work and quickly produced a book with help of uva press, and President Trumps first year which was recently reviewed i think in the Washington Post as probably some other places. Mike wrote for the project including polling some of the great excerpts of our Oral History Program in one of the first memos produced for the project. Mel who as i mentioned is a constant professor and coed tore of the volume on the dangerous first year. Mary kate who was a speech writer had in the bush 41 administration, mary kate and i both graduated in roughly the same time at uva she went on to work on the Bush Campaign i went on to work on the campaign we know who went further and higher as a result of that. I was rearranging deck, she was writing a flight plan. Mcghee who is this our president ial Recordings Program who was a professor here at the millers center who worked on several volumes including i think, the third volume of that, which was planning the president s first budget where he both coed ditted volume and then also wrote an essay on Lyndon Johnsons first yearing in passing of medicare and medicaid and lessons of working with with congress in that endeavor and finally stephany abbott who coed ditted volume as assistant director of president ial studies really is the air Traffic Controller on all things that happened here at the center. So with that i want to turn it over to the panel and and have you all take it away for the discussion. Welcome everyone thank you for coming. I want to start by turning to mike nelson and ask him to step up to the podium and deliver his remarks. What a great pleasure it be eit is to be with a charlotteville audience and what a great privilege it was and with with all thanks to bill to be part of this extraordinary first year project, and hes told you a lot about it. I want to tell you a little bit it be this book crucible which is just been published in which you can actually buy along with this one trumps first year. [laughter] if youre so inclined, but you be when youre edited something youre very, very close to it. And you all know the saying about cant seat forest through the trees. But then months later the book actually arrived and i was able to see the forest and i just openedded u up table of content this im saying in part because they elected new members to the Baseball Hall of fame. If there were president ial scholars hall of fame the roster of contributors to crucible would be inaugural members of of the president ial scholar hall of fame in cooperstown or who knows where. A wonderful book, and having only written little bits it, i think i can say that without being inmodest. But ill immodest when i tell you about the project i took on that came out of my experience because what the first year, that brought a first year project that was kind of immersed those of us who were involved in. In the long history of the american presidency. And the long history of the constitution of which the presidency is a part. Were talking now well over two centuries of continuous operation. Donald trump is the president but hes number 45. So long list of those who come, came before. And i could go on and on i koangt go on and on but i want to make a couple observations and maybe even read you a couple of passages. From, from my book trumps first year which had again was informed by and kind of grew out of the extraordinary first year project of the Miller Center. You know about when donald trump ran for president , and when he gave his inaugural address the theme was america is essentially a day or two away from the apock but what i looked at looking at the year historically was sphals drurp was fortunate to take office when he did. And unlike Abraham Lincoln he didnt have to deal with a secession of seven states during the period between his election and his inauguration unlike Richard Nixon he did not inherit a war in which half a million american soldiers were bogged down. And Franklin Roosevelt and barack obama he didnt take the oath of office in the midst of a massive financial crisis. Although the world had had its share of problem when is the Trump Presidency began. There were ongoing, not new or urgent. The domestic economy had been growing slowly but steadily for all but one quarter of the previous six years. The annual rate of inflation was below 2 and Unemployment Rate dipped below percentage of americans who regard as middle oral up or class had had reached 62 a greater share than before the 2008 financial crisis. The stock market was already booming. And unlike all his recent republican predecessors, Donald Trump Took Office with a Republican Congress. So you look at it that way, donald trump was dealt a very good hand, and honestly you know, im somebody who appreciates the significance of the tax cut bill that was enacted last month into law. But when you step become and you think what have been president s able to do in the past when they have a congress controlled by their own party . One major piece of legislation and for republicans especially a tax cut, is sort of like a six inch putt, right . So i think that history gives a way of kind of measuring not the rightness or o wrongness but just kind of the scale of accomplishment so thats one thing that history i think gives us some perspective on. Another is this, when you think about the last 70 years or so, and the way in which we have chose our president s, and the talent pool from which we have chosen our president s, and what you see is a trend of which Donald Trumps election was kind of at the latest manifestation so think about this. During the quarter century roughly quarter century after world war ii, the president s we elected not only had experience in government. But it was experience at high level of government in washington. Right, senators, Vice President s, general truman, with eisenhower, kennedy, johnson, nixon, ford, every one of them had sort built their career nott in government but in washington. Well, no surprise there. Right think about what happened before this period began, the federal government was widely credited with licking the depression and beating the axis and americans had confidence in the federal government and along comes the vietnam war and all comes to watergate crisis starting with jimmy carter election in 1978 a country still want people with experience and government, but not in washington. Right that was part of carter appeal as it was governor Ronald Reagan as it was governor bill clinton as it was governor george w. Bush we were experienced people but not part of that mess in washington. Well if you think sort of next iteration of this trend is somebody who comes along and saysive no experience in washington, and i have no experience in government and thats a reason to vote for me. [laughter] and that is sort of where we are now and as people are looking ahead to 2020 and talking about Mark Zuckerberg or Oprah Winfrey we may have more to look forward to in that way but again it is a way of understanding that trump didnt just drop out of the sky, that theres been a long term almost quarters of a century long trend of which he is kind of the most recent manifestation so where did donald trump come from if not the world of government he came from the world of business. But a particular kind of business. He was never the head of a of a publicly traded corporation who had to share power with an independent board of directors and shareholders. He ran essentially a tightly controlled private company, staffed in part by family members where he was the boss. The point being that he didnt come out of that sector of the Business World publicly traded corporation. Where you have to learn u how to share power with other stakeholders. Which might be more relevant to becoming president in a constitutional system of government where guess what, you have to share power with other stakeholders. He also came out of the world of celebrity. But a particular again a particular kind of select. He wasnt a Ronald Reagan who made movies and Television Shows that were conspiring or dramatic and then by the way spent eight year as governor of california. He came out of the world of reality tv. I dont know if this is one of your guilty pleasures i wont ask anybody to confess that they watched survivor or the apprentice. But understand what what drives the success and he was very successful on the apprentice for 14 years. What drives success of those programs is guilty pleasure we say in seeing people fail and seeing conflict. So what was the catch phrase of the apprentice it was not youve got the job. [laughter] right. It was youre fired. And so donald trump came out of a world of select but its a world of celebrity in which conflict and putdowns are kind of of the essence of things. And one of the thing is background. Is that nowhere along the way either through