[inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] it is great to have you here. With longstanding friends of the center it is a pleasure to be here today and what has been a terrific project much of the last three years at the Miller Center with a firstyear project we are now one year and one week into the President Trump administration and we started to plan this effort in the spring of 2015 shortly after i arrived at the center but it really came from the center itself. There was a real question when i came in as a new director how we think about the upcoming three years with president ial elections almost two years out from when i had arrived and we thought about taking the extraordinary Historical Archive that we have built and her own scholars and network and with future administrations. After several weeks of planning we came back with this idea of the governing council to build human, Financial Support support for the effort. It has been a Terrific Team effort to bring together parts of the Miller Center to build on things we have done in the past like the war power commission, from 2009 which is a bipartisan look at the constitutional system and that accommodation of scholarship and practitioners is something we want to inject into this project. It was easy to predict any new president would face immense challenges and we knew that because we had looked at president ial history. Saying you get one year before congress stops thinking about you and start thinking about their own reelection no matter how big of a majority they will start thinking about what it means for them with the next years midterm primaries then on the National Security side, looking back at history the crisis comes at precisely the wrong time when a new team comes into place they could be experience but they dont know one another or how to work together. We saw that particular with the bush 41 administration with dick cheney who told us his oral history. Probably to have this wonderful ability to say on paper we have been the best National Security team ever. He may have been right to be director of the head of United Nations or white house staff secretary of state james baker or secretary of treasury. And white house chief of staff powell and joint chiefs of staff with the National Security advisor and the list goes on and on with the National Security advisor with brent escrow croft to say he would keep having doing the job until he got it right. We were great on paper until presented with a crisis and we totally screwed it up. Dick cheney was giving a speech at gettysburg. I dont know where the hell baker was an powell was new in the job and didnt have a process. We want to think through systemically how they appoint their cabinet that make the administration to have those priorities that they can do by executive action. And how they manage that too difficult miles of those relationships we heard jimmy carter tell us to be elected as an outsider he didnt need the support of his political party. And then similar to and this was on the outside. And so look back across president ial history not just the structure but the opportunities and threats for the incoming president to help shape the understanding for the Incoming Administration or the public in general as they themselves had to plan for this moment sometimes every four years or every eight years. We want to bring together researchers with practitioners and what we were able to accomplish is extraordinary. Almost exceed essays which today we are releasing this book crucible which was the best of those. And as a senior fellow and also the director of policy here when we started the project a desire and are of the entire effort. And now head of admissions and external affairs. And we are still delighted to have jeff with us as part of our family. To earn coverage with prominent Media Outlets cnn, fox, slate the Washington Post more than two dozen firstyear project producing a terrific event at the Reagan Library reagan, bush, clinton, bush, and obama who was 40 years out from this job to the alumni listening to Lyndon Johnson to writing for barack obama. We could do a van in washington and those who cochaired the volume on National Security and cohosted the first event in washington we launch the project then on National Security in the first year at the wilson center. Jeff was a huge part of this at the Historic Homes and learning centers Jefferson MadisonWilson Kennedy reagan bush clinton. Then finally working with the president ial Transition Team for the Hillary Clinton and donald trump campaign. Both as a transition house want to quickly introduce the panel a few of whom i have mentioned already mike nelson is a senior fellow with us teaching at Rhodes College he took this work to produce a book and President Trumps firstyear recently reviewed in the Washington Post including those great excerpts of the oral history program. Not to mention the compton professor and coeditor of the volume on the dangerous firstyear. And Mary Kate Cary speechwriter of the bush administration. Graduating roughly the same time and then went on to work on the Bush Campaign i worked on the Dukakis Campaign and we know who went further and higher as a result. [laughter] i was rearranging deck chairs she was arranging a flight plan. [laughter] and with the president ial Recordings Program and with the president s first budget and also writing an essay and with the passing of Medicare Medicaid elections and finally Stefanie Abbott the assistant director of president ial studies is the air Traffic Controller on all things that happened here at the center. With that i will turn it over to the panel and have you taken away. Thank you for coming. I want to start by turning to mike nelson to deliver his remarks. What a great pleasure it is to be in the charlottesville audience what a great privilege it was to be part of the extraordinary firstyear project and he has told you a lot about it but to tell you a lot about this book crucible that has just been published that trumps trumps firstyear if you are so inclined but you are editing something you are very close to it. That you cannot see the forest for the trees then the book arrived i opened one over the table of content one contents because with the Baseball Hall of fame if there was a president ial scholar at the hall of fame with the inaugural members of the president ial scholars hall of famer who knows where. Having only had little bits of it but i will be modest modest if i tell you about the project because that broader firstyear project for those of us who were immersed in the history of the american presidency. We are talking over two centuries of continuous operations that trump is number 45 in a long list to keep before. I could go on and on with a couple of observations may be reading a couple of passages from my book that was informed by and grew out of the extraordinary firstyear project of the Miller Center. When donald trump ran for president gave his inaugural address america is essentially a day or two away from the apocalypse. [laughter] but what i found looking at his first year historically that donald trump was fortunate to take office when he did. I like Abraham Lincoln between his election and inauguration. He did not inherit a war that more than half a million american soldiers were bogged down he did not take use of office in the midst of a financial crisis or the world had its share of problems in the trunk presidency began it was ongoing not urgent but the domestic economy was growing slowly but steadily for all that one quarter of the previous six years. Annual rate of inflation below 2 unemployment below 5 those percentage of americans regarded as middleclass was 62 a greater share than before 2008. The stock market was booming. And unlike all of the predecessors Donald Trump Took Office with a Republican Congress. If you look at it that way donald trump was dealt a very good hand i am somebody who appreciates the significance of the tax cut bill and acted last month into law. But when they have a congress controlled by their own party one major piece of legislation especially the tax cut so i think history gives us a way to measure the scale of accomplishments. And that is something to give us perspective. If you think of the last 70 years in the way we have chosen our president s and the talent pool what you see is a trend Donald Trumps election was the latest so during a quarter century after world war ii the president s reelected senators, Vice President s, Kennedy Johnson dixon or ford and they had built their career not just in government but in washington. No surprise there. Think of what happened before this. Began it was credited with the depression and americans had a lot of confidence in the federal government. Then along comes vietnam war and watergate crisis and then carter election in 1976 the country still isnt experienced but not in washington. That was the appeal just like reagan and bush and clinton they were experienced but not part of that mess. So part of that trend is somebody who comes along to say i have no experience in washington or government and who is willing to vote for me . So that is where we are as people look ahead to 2020 looking at Mark Zuckerberg or Oprah Winfrey not to understand that he did not drop out of the sky that he is the most recent manifestation. Coming from the world of business never the head of a publicly traded corporation with the independent board of directors. Essentially a tightly controlled private companies staffed by family members. The point being that that sector of the Business World how to share power with other stakeholders. That might be more relevant to becoming president where guess what . That a particular kind of celebrity he made movies and Television Shows inspiring more dramatic than to spend eight years as governor of california i dont know if this is your guilty pleasure not anybody to confess if they watched survivor or the apprentice but understand on the apprentice for 14 years. With the guilty pleasure and to seek conflict. So donald trump came out with conflict and put down is of the essence. With experience or interest or study im not going to say that donald trump is stupid. But there is a difference between stupid and ignorant. I am ignorant about massive areas of knowledge but trump took on a job where knowledge of the history of those the constitutional system that you are now a leader might have been helpful. The last thing i will read is one of the scariest in terms of writing it nothing in his Business Career had required donald trump to share power. With absence of governing experience and lack of knowledge and government he had a dim understanding of the sharing of power remanded by the constitution between the State Government in the federal government and between branches within the federal government. Examples of his ignorance abound. So with the specialists session of congress assumed he was sworn in even they were already in session when a new president is sworn in. Andrew jackson trump said quote was really angry about what he saw happening in with the civil war but he died 16 years before the war. Speaking of Abraham Lincoln, trump said those people dont even know he was a republican. Right . Does anybody know . Every republican who have thought of themselves as the party of lincoln knows he was a republican. With Douglas Frederick douglass is an example of somebody doing an amazing job. [laughter] then maybe at a july 8 with republicans trump professed his devotion to the constitution. I want to protect article one. Article two, article 12. Go down the list. There are seven articles. [laughter] after mentioning William Mckinley to a crowd in Youngstown Ohio does anybody know who the hell he is . President mckinleys birthplace 12 miles from where he was giving the speech. Weeks after Hurricane Katrina wrecked the Virgin Islands trump referred to the president of the Virgin Islands just like all territories has a governor. The president of the United States. [laughter] but my favorite is when trump is the equivalent of roosevelt and jfk and in these ways each took a new form of Communication Media and mass media. Fdr, fireside chat, radio, jfk jfk press conference in debate with television but donald trump social media. That is a way to communicate his thoughts directly to us. Sometimes in interesting ways and with Reality Television he has been great to attach touch phrases that are negative. So this is like a singalong. Hillary, ted fake news. You remember this. That is Pretty Amazing but what we dont have is the equivalent are the two word phrase. Blank elf care. Blank infrastructures so this is somebody and then to solidify that base but to solidify. And that further incident that they put out these wild statements and all previous president s i will not stoop to that level. Until donald trump was accused by the north korean government to be an old lunatic not to be branded a lunatic but you take offense to be branded as old that is something to be learned from that. We will stop there because i guarantee this is the worst talk this afternoon. They are the rock stars of the afternoon. Thank you. [applause] into talk about Foreign Policy and National Security so. At bentonville university me and my colleagues i learned a lot and i still love listening to him. In the evocative and luminous way to see realities so thank you for asking to be a part of this project. It has been extraordinarily worthwhile for me to do this. Let me tell you about my role and some of the implications to study the lessons of the first year of the five previous administrations. When these renowned scholars look at the first year of the John Kennedy Administration the first year of reagan and George Hw Bush and bill clinton and george w. Bush. Interestingly there was a lot of consensus of why things go wrong during the first year. Youngs often go wrong the first year because of an absence of coherent strategy. Because of poor processing and flawed teamwork because there is a distracted president usually interested in the mystics affair affairs because of poor staffing and delays in the cabinet things go wrong because of the acrimony between the executive branch the chief executive and congress often things go wrong because of the budget process is not integrated with Strategic Planning or thinking there is a gap between them. We dont need to go into any details but with these qualities to pertain to his first year but nonetheless has many have said during those three or four weeks that is significant there has been no tragedy no 9111 good republican expert said his first year is unnerving but uneventful but should be happy or things could get worse. We should assess his first year. Why is it unnerving . Because the failures to radically exceed successes. So in terms of Foreign PolicyNational Security policy more or less eradicated isis in syria and iraq with the accomplishment that was already underway with the last couple of years but the military under trump has succeeded to accomplish and in terms of success. This is the way i look at the rest of the trump firstyear. Not improving relations with russia in ukraine or syria or has confronted putin with the electoral intervention in the United States as with most european countries. President trump for all his rhetoric has not stopped the north Korea Strategic advance President Trump has made no progress with the projection of Chinese Military strength into the South China Sea and has done very little with the chinese influence elsewhere around the globe despite the talk he has made no progress restraining iran from the persian gulf neither has he renegotiated the deal for improved the nuclear deal. President trump has made no progress in the