Between groups in the two countries as well as the american and russian influences in the region. This is about an hour and 10 minutes. Good morning everyone and welcome to the foundation for defense of democracy. My name is jonathan chandler, Senior Vice President for research and it is terrific to see so many terrific faces in the room. We are looking forward to our timely event this morning as we address the syrian impasse. What is turkeys endgame in the Syrian Campaign and how does this impact washington policy . We are lucky to have one of the foremost experts with us today to these issues. I will keep it short so that we can jump right in. First, a few housekeeping items. Todays event is being live streamed, video recorded and is also being broadcast on cspan no i encourage guests in the audience in attendance and viewing at home to join in onthe conversation. Please feel free to comment as we go along and we will try to address those om comments. This is the time when i ask you to set your cell phones to silent. We dont want our guests to be interrupted as they engage in this conversation and now i am very pleased to hand over the conversation to my colleague, a Research Analyst at fde, murray. This is her first moderated event so we are pleased to have you do this and take it away, irving. [inaudible] thank you all for coming. So three weeks ago, or four weeks ago, the czech Army Launched an operation across the border iin Northern Syria. Turkey verified the group which is also the us partner in syria, fighting isys. Can anybody hear me . Yes. Okay. So theyre fighting the group and yet why pg is partnered i with the United States elsewhere in syria in the fight against isis so this causes all kinds of complications for turkey, the us and syria in general. She serves as an professor here in d. C. And we have one of the best journalists who currently works for the turkish media outlet. I strongly encourage you to follow her if you dont already. With that, i i want to start the conversation or first ask you a question because part of the problem with the operation and what we been hearing here is that turkey says its fighting the way pg because they pose the number one Security Threat to turkey. It is saying that because the way pg is an offset of the clergy group that has been fighting inside turkey for the past several decades. You know the Kurdish Movement really well and you know Northern Syria as well as the pkk. Given the discord between turkey saying they are one in the same therefore any American Corporation is related and the u. S. Has said they are different enough that they can keep working with the y pg in syria against isis and also tell turkey that it will aid turkey fight against the other group. Its a very complex picture and it puts a conundrum all over the place. I was hoping you could walk us through. Thats a great question. One of the basic questions but of course, everything you said can exist and be true and at the same time be somewhat nuanced simultaneously. Lets look at the two groups, given all the different acronyms but the dominant kurdish organization in syria right now. Clearly, this is something that youri go back into the literature, it was formed of a subsidiary, an affiliate of theor pkk. Each part of the kurdish region would have its own party that would operate to bring democracy, autonomy, gender freedom, and other things along those lines, but they were part of the pkk nonetheless. I think what an important distinction and what the u. S. Is honestly focused on is the fact that in syria this dominant player operates according to the specific conditions of syria. They have autonomy in the decisionmaking process. They make their decisions based on whats good the moment. They train their people in syria. They are focused onnsy syria. I dont think all of this is really, obviously this nuances not of great interest to turkey, but nonetheless its important when looking at this. At the same time, the operations of this organization in syria have not been counter in a military way against turkey. There have not been attacks on turkey from syrian territory. They havent, they tried to keep, over the past two years their senior commanders in syria so, the problem is for the United States, im sure well get into this later on, by denying any link between the two, something thats necessary for u. S. Policy, they also make it difficult for the u. S. To acknowledge some of turkeys concerns and try to explain why the w y pg is not a real threat. Not but thatn would necessarily calm the situation. There are clearly links but when we look at the y pg, we see that they are operating according to syrian conditions in syria. Thank you for that. I should also note there is a legal distinction between them, the United States list them as ats terrorist organization so there is that little nuance which im sure we can get into and the rest of conversation, but okay, let me turn here for a minute because this is very much a war, its a state of war here, its the second operations carried out in syria but it feels different already, first of all turkey is in a state of emergency. Theres that but also the restrictions on the media and Civil Society is growing and is fierce. I think already more than five hunter people have beened arrested in turkey for speaking out. What is the view in turkey, and what are the turkish governmentsgo objectives with this offensive. I think a large segment of tricky society is behind. [inaudible] and that explains the main objective. The referendum is imposed on liberty and he wants to boost his popularity so he wanted to tap into the anti kurdish and anti american sentiment inn the country and the opposition supported kurdish is behind, supported the operation and im not sure what the numbers but i believe they are around 80 according to recent Public Opinion polls. 80 of tricky Society Supports the operation. I thinknk the main driver was domestic policy and those two, the anti kurdish sentiments are very important and they have always been there but i think we can talk about detail in terms of the anti americanism into anti kurdish sentiments. He wants to tap into those and boost his popularity. I think this operation is as much against the a kurds as it is against the u. S. Consensus. So the t proclaimed aim was the cooperation between the u. S. And theat y pg and and they said they had nothing to do with this but the domestic narrative is that we are there to disrupt this relationship between the u. S. And y pg. I think that makes the situation very collocated and im sure you will touch on the complications of the operation on the ground but domestically, if you look at it from the turkish perspective, i think the anti americanism that we are seeing now is distant, its much more widespread theres always been anti americanism in turkey but what we see now is the military military,. [inaudible] theyve all found Common Ground and that is something and that is what makes it difficult to resolve the tension between turkey and the u. S. Is also a recipe for disaster because i think turkey has lost its Strategic Direction inform policy and that domestic concern begins the backbone of policymaking. Just as a followup, thank you. I think that was very explanatory but i wonder, why is the separation taking place now. Is there reason that they need to consolidate this anti kurdish sentiment in turkey because the war is helping consolidate that. Im curious of thin you think there are specific reasons you may be doinge that now. Because the elections are coming up. I think that explains the timing of the operation. Also, there are other factors for over a year. Until now its been delayed because they are unwilling to allow and control the skies and i think what prompted the russian green light was the u. S. Decision to stay longer in syria. That is something that makes the regime, the iranians and the russians really nervous. It goes part of russian strategy to weaken the y pg and indirectly cause influence in syria. Also seeking to discourage that portion in the United States. I think this is the regime is unwilling its nerveracking for them that america is willing to stay longer. It has something to do with domestic. [inaudible] just to explain to those who may not know, they are referring p to the election that will be the first election before the new constitution to add on more powers and make it more of a legal case. The u. S. Policy, we have matheson tillerson in talks with her turkish counterpart. There hasnt been as strong condemnation or even concern that has been voiced but the u. S. Is working with them more broadly in syria and has recently indicated that it is planning. Theyre only allies are permanently made up of the y pg. Is this a conundrum from u. S. Policy in syria and also and how is the y pg reacting to this. I think they have registered quite a bit of concern and we heard that from the state department there was concern about the separation and how it might be undermining the anti isis campaign elsewhere in syria and concern about the high civilian casualty. These are obviously mounting as the operation continues. The United States is very concerned. At the same time that says they are not present enough or they are not offering enough influence so theyre not really in ain position to intervene. The kurds disagree with that view and they feel the United States should be doing much more to end this campaign and the fact that the United States expresses concern and has not said stops. As for the United States saying secretary tillerson laid outs at stanford recently that they will be staying on for a number of reasons and my colleagues just ran through some of them. I think saying that but actually not matching that with any real action in what seems to fly in the face of countering iranian influence and razors questions and kurdish mines. By presenting them as allies against iran, against the regime, talking about regime change without permitting the resources fordo doing not. Were not talking anymore about turkish and u. S. Conflict of interest right now. Sort of beginning to mark their heads against each other as the battle lines draw closer and closer. Its getting extremely sticky and i think the russians are playing a finely calibrated game of turning it on and off with the turks and unfortunately at the more the kurds are perceived as allies of the United States and part of this alleged effort to get rid of this we will be seeing more and more of the russians, more turkish aggression against the yhe pg. One of the reports that came out of the. [inaudible] they believe that russia, this is happening because russia had offered the y pg to strike a deal for local economy and they had rejected it. The statement i came from. [inaudible] it looks like russia might be trying to may be split the Kurdish Movement in syria between the russian. I think theyre trying too do several things at the same time. On one hand they would like to see the regime reestablish control. Tr this whole offering is part of that. If you dont want the regimes that appear than the turks are going to come. This is a replay on that but on a far bigger scale. We also b tend to estimate the degree to which the russian relations also driven by russias own security concern. These radicalized fighters in the fact that throughout the 2010 in the 90s, they found a haven in turkey. Its incredibly importants for russia to cooperate with turkey to try to contain this threat so there is that aspect of this which in turn puts russia at odds with the regime and with iran because i dont believe either the regimee or ron are terribly happy about this turkish fact that they are moving further south into thee deescalation zones. There pushing further into their territory with the help of they rebels which turkey initially aligned itself with to overthrow the regime. It iss getting incredibly complicated. Think its important to take the entire process more legitimate. Thats why turkey Security Forces agree its important for russia. Is it important for russia toto have any representatives from the Kurdish Movement or is it more important to have turkey represented because in the last round of meetings after turkey started, there was a bit of talk between they would get invited to the next round of talks and at the end of it the conclusion was that they want invited. I heard from journalists who were there that people were there. At the end of the day they would like to see them at the table. The dont see, they will be there. I dont know what the deal was cut between russia and turkey before turkey went ahead with it so maybe the understanding was that the russians would get of the green light and that would boost the popularity had. This seemed to become somewhat of a shock to them, they said we didnt want to take part given whats happening with turkey but theyve sort of seen russia as a little more accommodating. If we are to assume that both the United States and russia are planning fro for some sort of settlement to the seven year conflict, they are both planning for this future post isis, how do we settle the question of the civil war situation, both of these, some sort of settlement is absolutely necessary. Let me just ask you about the relationships, both in light of this and also historically and since the beginning, im curious what kind of settlement do you think would best economy their interest. Im not as optimistic as you are that theres plan for real sediment for whats happening in syria. I think, look, the pid, y pg and its various structures have made very clear that they want to be able to control their territory. They talk in very big terms about democracy and gender equality and things like that and certainly they have gone, compared with other groupsit and countries in the region ive done quite well on the gender equality. They would like to see that. Now whether theyre going to get that is difficult. I think at the end of the day, this is something they will demand. This is something they would not back down very easily from. They dont want to see their institutions disbanded. They dont see their military force disbanded for they see this as their final protection. The events and offering and the u. S. Kind c of inability to take a clear stand on this and stand up for the kurds is only another message to the Kurdish Movement that its ultimately needs to relyma on itself you cant rely on other countries to protect its security. The thing c is, the control of the territory depends quite a bit on american support. If they came to a decision of the u. S. To withdraw that support, there are many different areas where battles couldan break out. Its important for the kurds to try to maintain this obviously, and keep the u. S. Behind them. For the kurds in syria, in turkey, for example, with happening is that its a time where they been squeezed inside turkey and operations, but the Political Movement in turkey and the military movement has been put under pressure, politicians rested and any sort of kurdish or democratic expressions were seen as a crime as a opposed to being detained. They need to show a game in the game they have is whats happening in row shofar. They can explain away some of the ability to operate. They launched a war in the city in southeast turkey. This led to turkish counterattacks that levels large parts of different cities in southeast turkey and led to an number of death. Their way ofe explaining this says we have to have this because we were concerned there would beur a turkish operation. It was an attempt to turn attention away. The they really need the leader and they see this is a critical part of the overall success regionally and specifically in turkey. The movement in syria is supposed to actual arms. The operation was not preceded by attacks by y pg. In fact, turkey has constructed a huge wall along the eastern part of the border with syria. Its making it more difficult for there to be attacks. None the less, there is great concern to have this on the border. You just harkens back to a couple years ago and want to do the same. Their relationship has changed over the years. In relation to one another they have changed. Just a few years ago, turkey was in the Peace Process and you mentioned from the pkk pointed view, the fear that turkey will attack from turkeys point of view the statements have been indicated that turkey was quite unnerved for some years that the kurds in Northern Syria have been gaining more and more International Sports they view those as a threat. Po has that affected turkeys calculations in terms of its Peace Process with the group or were there other domestic considerations as well. Absolutely, yes. I think the whole hour of string comes at a very unfortunate time. They had really losses Peace Process. Use the occurred gaining ground and as of 2014, the United States i it really freaked out the turkish government. I think this is a typical reaction, a kneejerk reaction for such a state whenever they see kurds gaining influence, certainly across the borders and particularly with the help of the last the goal is to suppress that. [inaudible] there is a demand made by turkey but its in possible for them to accept, including throwing its full support for regime change, in support of regime change alongside the rebels. However becoming the y pg and therefore the entire sod for spread throughout that process, while those talks were ongoing, we did not see a single constitutional reform that would have instilled any degree of confidence on the kurdish side, encouraging them to think that whatever they did would actually yield any concrete results in terms of fulfilling those obligations. So yes is the short answer to your question. Also, i think what happenedyo in syria, the syrian conflict in the rise