Commander, general john titan. He looked at the nuclear interviews with past and present included the emergence of new and complex threats are on the rise. Potential threats include those from russia, china, iran and north korea. This is little more than one hour. Thank you very much. Seated. If it is my pleasure to introduce vice adam all of the u. S. Navy in his a submariner can [inaudible] use since his current post of the 16th president of National Defense university this past december he will provide welcoming remarks. Thank you, john. General heitman, mr. Trachtenberg, distinguished guest, ladies investment, good morning. Welcome to the National Defense university. It is my great pleasure to welcome you to this policy seminar in the 2018 Nuclear Posture review. As president im pleased and proud that we are able to help facilitate discussion and debate on the npr. As a career summering officer and former commander of several strategic courses is particularly satisfying for me to be able to contribute to a discussion so fundamental to the nation security. It is a vital part of our mission here to support the development of National Policy and we are proud of the great work on Research Staff does in support of key initiatives like the Nuclear Posture review and the National Defense strategy. Such Research Also helps to ensure that we can bring the most topical content in a deep insight into our classrooms. That is where we are helping prepare the next generation of National Security leaders drawn from across the services, the government and from our partner and allied nations to security increasingly difficult. I would like to thank the dedicated professionals of our center for the study of weapons of mass distraction under doctor chuck and directed by doctor laura. Its a Great Program this week. The Key Stakeholders of the current offense and from across the government, from prominent subject Matter Expert in of course, the creator of your Strategic Command, general john titan. I have no doubt you will all leave here for better understanding of these competencies and other locations for National Security. Once again, welcome to you all and best wishes for successful summer. [applause] thank you. My name is john case and the Deputy Director of the center for study of weapons of mass disruption here at National Defense university. In the chad welcome to that of admiral. We are very pleased with this event and the turnout attest to the significance of the Nuclear Posture review the we are here to discuss. The npr is about the condition of us National Security, the Nuclear Deterrent safeguards are most vital interest and complex and dangerous world. As the animal mentioned here today from those who played key roles in developing the npr will play key roles in the implementation. As well as analysis and commentary from respected and out of government. Governor john titan, commander of the Strategic Command provides perspective. He will answer questions following his remarks. I invite you to review his and mr. Trachtenbergs bios which are in the handout. Mr. Paul bernstein, senior fellow and who put this together, will moderate the discussion with senior officials from the office of the secretary depends, joint staff, National Security and ministration and state department. [inaudible] please note and heed the following administrative remarks. First, be sure to silence your phones or any other Electronic Devices and please take a moment to do so if you havent had an opportunity to do that yet. This is an unclassified event. Most of the event will be on the record in the final panel however will not be for attribution. What does this mean . Now until the end of the first panel, the one that mr. Bernstein will moderate you may vote or otherwise attribute any statements made in the speaker who made them. The sessions may be found or recorded but for the final panel, the one that ambassador brooks will moderate you may not attribute any statement to the speaker who made them. The members of the press and the president and other members of the audience may not film or make audio recordings during that panel. We certainly can report over what was said during the final panel but not set it. We will reiterate this prior to that final panel. There will be two breaks during the event. During the break it will be refreshments available is off atrium of this building, the same place the refreshments were available this morning. The second in a final break will follow the first panel and will be a shorter break and there will not be any repressions available so i recommend staying close to the auditorium. Questions can be found right outside of the auditorium and there are additional restrooms out side of the atrium. We are on a tight schedule this morning and we want to get a lot accomplished in the time we have so please return from the break on time and you may hear a gong and you may already have heard it letting you know that the break is about to end. No food or beverages allowed in the auditorium so if you brought them in, id. [laughter] our goal is to adjourn at or close to 12 30 and recognizing that some of you may be hungry after the event and the cafe will remain open. I would now like to introduce the honorable david trachtenberg, deputy undersecretary defense of policy. He assumes his current position this past october and he is more than 35 years with Public Policy in the private sector in the executive and legislative branches of government. Its highly regarded Financial Security community. Mr. Trachtenberg. [applause] thank you very much, john. Good morning. Its a pleasure to be here at National Defense university and id like to think president and the entire and bu team for the invitation to come speak to you today along with general heitman about the painting posture review. Thinking about how to structure my remarks i was reminded of the old story about the gentleman who considered an expert in a certain subject matter and was told that he would be a luncheon speaker he would be able to speak for 15 minutes. He got very incredulous and upset and angry and thinking that he was the worlds preeminent expert on the topic and said to his host, two minutes, how do you expect me to tell this audience everything i know about this topic in 15 minutes to which his host responded well, sir, i advise you to speak slowly. [laughter] with that in mind i will try to speak slowly. Let me begin by noting that person trumps memorandum which was issued one week incident and ministration directed to the department of defense to undertake the fourth review of Us Nuclear Policy posture in programs since the end of the cold war and the department of defense with significant input from Strategic Command conducted this review along with the department of state, energy and consultation with allies and experts from inside and outside the government. The result in 18 Nuclear Posture view is consistent with prior abuse and its definition of us nuclear roles, policy and deterrence strategy. In fact, many in many respects review reaffirms longstanding bipartisan principles of the us their policy while at the same time recognizing the reality that a much more challenging Nuclear Threat has emerged since the previous 2010 Nuclear Posture review. Eight years ago the 2010 npr made several assumptions about the nature of the strategic environment that served as a foundation for its vision of achieving the global elimination of Nuclear Weapons. Unfortunately, none of those assumptions printout. For example, first the npr argue that relations with russia and china have changed fundamentally since the days of the cold war and it assumed that the prospects for military confrontation had declined dramatically. Second, it asserted that engagement could result in graded russian and chinese restraint in their Nuclear Programs and postures. This would reassure and stabilize their regions and third it stated that if the United States produced the role and numbers of us weapons that the western world would move in the same direction reducing the salience of Nuclear Weapons in international affairs. Fourth, it held that while the reassurance and mission of their weapons remains the deterrent challenge is fundamentally different and a Nuclear Arsenal built for stable deterrence of other Nuclear Powers had in the 2010 npr words little relevance to the challenge of preventing Nuclear Proliferation in Nuclear Terrorism. The world is in many respects much different today than it was then. What we have seen of the past decade is the return of Great Power Competition. Not necessarily a return to the cold war but the emergence of a new complex in threatening security environment. In 2010 russia altered its military doctrine to state that nato was its top correct in the position it reiterated in 2014. That same year russia invaded ukraine, supported a buddy secessionist civil war and used military force to attempt to change longestablished borders in europe. Rather than reducing the salience of their weapons russian leadership made explicit Nuclear Threats brandishing their Nuclear Weapons and away we had not seen in a generation. Like russia china is attempting territorial revision against its neighbors threat and the use of force. In 2011 china began its creeping militarization of the islands in the South China Sea and china has also been us allies and partners in the region in disputes over territorial boundaries and claims to contested island territory. At the same time rogue states like north korea have the lead made explicit threats to the United States and her allies in the region. North korea is working aggressively to hold our homeland at risk and while Irans Nuclear future remains uncertain its line activities and hegemonic aspirations in the middle east are not. Further, it is clear that our attempts to lead by example in reducing the numbers in salience of Nuclear Weapons in the world have not been reciprocated. Since the 2010 npr russia, china and north korea have increased the numbers capabilities and salience of their Nuclear Weapons topic which i suspect general heitman we discussed in greater detail. The international restraint affected in Us Nuclear Policy did not result in the rest of the world following the same path. This is not a unique conclusion of the 2018 Nuclear Posture review but it is shared by our allies with whom we consulted extensively during this review and pricing figures in the Previous Administration. In contrast to the actions of potential adversaries the United States has built no new types of weapons or Delivery Systems other than the 35 and for the past two decades in fact that number of Nuclear Weapons in the us arsenal has declined by more than 80 since its cold war. We have set instead sustained their deterrence with life Extension Programs keeping systems and platforms literally decades beyond their Design Service life. Former secretary of defense Ashton Carter rightly observed that if there is an arms race on the way the United States is clearly not a participant. The 2010 Nuclear Posture review prioritized to preventing Nuclear ProliferationNuclear Terrorism the goal of deterring other Nuclear Powers however in this increasingly challenging threat environment some potential adversaries may now have been mistakenly believe that limited Nuclear First use threats or escalation could provide them with a military or political advantage. The 2018 npr response not by changing longstanding tenants of Nuclear Policy that have bipartisan support but by emphasizing those capabilities needed to correct adversarys calculations and thereby effectively deterring the use of Nuclear Weapons. In this card i would like to address any of the corresponding outcomes of the 2018 Nuclear Posture review. The re prioritization of nuclear roles and the clarification of our new clear policy and recommendations for deterrent capabilities each of which has been subject to considerable miss characterization in much of the publics commentary today. First the 2018 npr returns deterrence of Nuclear Attacks against us, our allies and partners to the top priority of Us Nuclear Policy. Now given the changes in the security environment as he believed is a prudent realistic and necessary change. The 2018 Nuclear Posture review makes clear that our Nuclear Posture must contribute to the goals of deterring nuclear and nonnuclear strategic attack assuring us allies and partners in achieving our objectives should deterrence fail and hedging against the risks of an uncertain future. The npr also emphasizes that Us Nuclear Policy will contribute, will continue to contribute to us Nuclear Nonproliferation goals i maintaining support for the Nuclear Nonproliferation treaty and by sustaining the deterrent for allies. Extended deterrence the socalled Nuclear Umbrella promotes nonproliferation by reducing the need or incentive for allies to acquire or obtain their own Nuclear Arsenals. Second, to strengthen deterrence between 18 npr notes that the United States will only consider the use of Nuclear Weapons in response to extreme circumstances that threaten our vital interest. The npr clarifies what nonnuclear scenarios might fall into this category while maintaining a measure, a prudent measure, of the strategic ambiguity intended to bolster deterrence. Contrary to some commentary the Nuclear Posture review does not go beyond the 2010 npr and expanding the traditional role of Nuclear Weapons. What is important is not the means of attack that a potential adversary chooses the extreme circumstances in strategic effect of the attack that will govern our choice of responses. As adversary nonNuclear Capabilities continue to advance us policy must make it clear that nonnuclear strategic attacks that would have catastrophic effects on the American People and her allies must also be deterred. This clarification is not only consistent with the and pr which acknowledged a role for Nuclear Weapons in deterring select nonnuclear tax but is probably consistent with the policy of every administration from president truman forward. The intent is to enhance deterrence by reducing the potential for adversary miscalculation. Third, the 2018 Nuclear Posture review recommends the Nuclear Programs that strengthen us capabilities and allies. First is the modification of a small number of existing summary launched Ballistic Missiles to include a low yield option. Second, a nuclear the large Cruise Missile. General may discuss these in greater detail but the point i would like to emphasize here is that neither of these capabilities outlined in the 2018 npr is new or lowers the threshold nuclear use which remains extremely high. These specific capabilities are recommended to strengthen the deterrence of war and the assurance of allies thereby helping to ensure the Nuclear Weapons are not employed or proliferated. Effective deterrence is about tailoring our capabilities to p