Issues that lay in front of me to tackle but how is that transformation going . That is basically the general question for you. And a massive one. Finally, last but not least, we will look at the mexican economy and antonio works at stoneridge these days covering issues related to mexico but is also been at Mexican Embassy and was up for a long time in charge of Economic Affairs there and in terms of the mexican economy if we look at the long term its been a mixed story. Mexico is very successfully integrated into the Global Economy and become a Global Manufacturing powerhouse but at the same time has levels of poverty and inequality there remain quite high. To have someone as part of the victory over the last 20 years in the mexican economy has been achieving macroeconomics ability through the independence of the central bank and fiscal responsibility across party lines and we now have a president that promises to maine pain physical responsibly and keep those things that work well in some ways but to change things dramatically in other ways. I think theres a lot to dig into in terms of both how investors are seen mexico from the outside and slow down in the mexican economy has been underway and how is that impacting the ability of this demonstration to plant some of the social spending and the state oil company has been facing serious challenges these days and how does that fit into the economic picture of the ministration. We are looking forward to that and all of our panelists have an interesting connection which is that at some point they are currently or in the past been affiliated with [inaudible] the Great Research universities we have a panel that is diverse in many ways and a Common Thread running throughout it as well and were delighted to have you with us today and i will ask jorge if he could start with the other presentation with a few slides just jorge will do some sites because hes doing Public Opinion and it sense too. Then we will move into Opening Statements by the other panelists and have time for discussion among us and with all of you. About your questions moving through. Jorge, the floor is yours. Thank you and its a pleasure to be here. I think the interesting question is how popular is [inaudible] because everyone says popular and charismatic and sometimes we forget that he competed in 2006 and 2012 and he got more or less support from the mexican population. We have to put into context what has happened because he certainly is charismatic and he wasnt as popular as he was. Im going to try to put it into context the approval levels and clarity and that stands to a generic discussion about his threats among the mexican public. [inaudible] many of the numbers here are available at [inaudible]. This is [inaudible] and right now this is a 70 approval and 25 of disapproval. There are differences and this is the most recent number we have that we can expect certainly he right now should be between 60 and 70 approval level especially if you compare it with [inaudible] with very weak numbers and it looks impressive but if we look at approval numbers in context the picture is quite different. At this stage believe a has more or less the same approval levels right now. Certainly the exception to these is obviously [inaudible] [speaking in spanish] but the numbers are high and they have astonishing numbers but we must not forget that in the past they had the same level. The key question is what is different about him and ive seen that one main difference between the poppa terry popularity of [inaudible] is intensity of approval. There are a lot of strong supporters and in the past with [inaudible] we even have the cartel effect of the popularity reflected in the numbers and in the midterm elections they had critical numbers between 6550 but they were not able to in the majority in the midterm electi election. I think the difference with the professor is the popularity at this stage really reflects in the strength of and this is a difference going into the future and we are very far from the midterm elections but at this stage i showed you later some numbers but we can say more or less 40 of the accident public is really a strong supporter. This is not his highest number and its been declining but i think thats the difference with the past. It really has a very support a base that really votes for marina. If you take into account the weakness of the position that explains a lot of what is going on right now because unlike the past where the [inaudible] had the majority either in one of the legislative chambers or a majority of the governorships right now but we have is a president that has the majority even though it has a plurality and majority and house of deputies. What explains the numbers . I could say that we could meet that his approval levels are a reflection of what hes been doing and his policies are either popular or those are popular do not have the approval levels but we could go back further back we could see that the expectations are thriving the approval levels and this is an index of that as you can see has not changed that much and improve the expectations of the economy and right now in this is based in the indexed of the Consumer Confidence and people do not think that the Current Situation of the economy is much better but actually they are thinking that the economies and only 14 seem that these numbers are more or less similar to the ones we had last november. Look at what happens with the expectations of the economy or the conscious economy and they increase a lot of the professor victory so in that regard what we are witnessing right now is the approval are our expectations and not reality and is not something that he has delivered to the public and his people are expecting he will deliver and this is not something new for the administration and you can look at the case of him for instance every time they use the change in power that the expectations about the future of the country improve a lot. In comparison terms you can see that this expectations have more or less have regarding in their own though that is the same pattern and just take a look at what happens with the expectations once this develops. All the expectations begin to decline and its here for all government so we should expect at the same thing will happen and we should expect also that the approval level will go down. This shows the correlation between Consumer Confidence and its an astonishing correlation because they have the same thing and i want [inaudible] but it moves more or less the same approval labels and they are measuring the same stuff we do not know what they are measuring but it is good to have a measure to approval levels. These are approval levels for some policies and sometimes they are hes got a lot of support or approval regarding the war on [inaudible] and also migration always show that people are supporting his heart and tougher Mission Migrants so this is an issue that is probably has not been politicized or become partisan but people are really thinking that it is good to have tougher [inaudible] on migrants. The mexican public is not tough on migrants and the thing is that we need to pass and its become an issue. But i want to stress this point. When he tried to explain the approval levels [inaudible] try to understand what has changed. Some expect the honeymoon is in part the consequence of the campaign being other and if you look at the approval numbers or evaluation of the people at increased lot after the election on the side of independence and so before the election but he was looking at him three partisan lens but if he wins the election partisan bias is deactivated so that explains why his approval levels jumped a lot and thats the key question here is that once we get closer to another election it is probably [inaudible] will begin to look at him in a more critical way and we should expect that as we get closer to the midterm elections that will influence them for his approval levels. Just to finish this is something an affectation of the public in terms of level of support for obrador. This is the latest ones we have and as you can see theres about 40 of the mexican public in blue that is a really strong and there are weak supporters and there is 26 of the mexican public that is against the professor. If you locate in comparison with the beginning of his term numbers have shifted a lot and especially after february after the war of what you call it there was an increasing support for him but this has to climb so currently we have 39 of them having our supporters and that makes about 70 pretty good number but is not the same to be a strong number of supporter and especially because of the correlation with support for the boot but also we can see that right now the numbers are similar to what we have before so to some extent one part of the honeymoon is over at least since that day and approval levels are more or less similar to what we had in november and probably what will be we will see is that we will be looking at numbers where more or less similar to the ones that he had before he won the election. We should expect that if this happens in other terms that the professor approval levels still go down and capitalize around october or november and i will stop. Thank you, jorge. Great way to get it started. Can i turn to you next to talk about and we can die more into specific areas after that. Thank you for the invitation. To be here but its a pleasure to be [inaudible] very close and dear colleagues. On july 1st 2018 obrador was elected of president of mexico. Im pretty sure we can all agree on that. Great. What started the following day however is still bereft of a common name and this matters because it makes straightforward analysis and assessment more complex. What political phenomenon has been playing itself out in mexico since july first 2018 is that five months of new president ial demonstration is that a peaceful revolution . Is it regime change . Or has the president who never tyrus reminding us the fourth transformation. When the meaning of works and the names of things is widely shared concerning oneself with them might be fascinating but it is dispensable. In context with the regular length among quarks, meanings and references are thrown into disarray however the symantec becomes openly political. The conditions for reason of eight rapidly you wrote. An eloquent example of the unsettled semantic times we live in is the non conversations between [inaudible] and his liberal critics about corruption. Both use the same term. Both see the thing as an evil that needs to be extracted from the countries body politics as best as possible. But coincidence stops right there and for the liberal opposition corruption is complicated and essentially legal terms. The professor and contrast understands corruption not as a legal problem, i repeat, not as a legal problem but strictly moral one. Even though were living in a peculiarly unsettled symmetrical context not only in mexico. I want to use the space to call your attention to the value of mining words [inaudible] what unfolded in mexico one year ago matters a lot because it ended up defining what other instances of the thing we can make it comparable to. To what it also defines the criteria and metrics we employ to assess it and ultimately what decisions we take in the revelation to it. Not to speak of which emotional impresses us. Treating the year and running from july 20june 2019 in mexico five months transition or seven months new president ial is useful for assessing very important buzzers and im sure it will do today. I will take a different lens. First let me illustrate the shifting frames of reference. Economies or india or some other abstract model of Economic Growth but the collapse of communist countries how could that possibly be relevant for answering the question of how china managed in 30 years to bring out of 650 million. One argument is settled and very complex but in a nutshell to answer the question that explains the economic miracle you pose the address of a different question and that is why they didnt follow the communist countries while the soviet union was disintegrating, china had tiananmen. The answer because the Chinese Revolution built a National State whose social basis a was e vast majority of the chinese people. About was able not only to maintain political control by the dire Economic Conditions but also to launch the process of economic modernization and asking a relatively neutral zone in social terms, that is not just defending capital but rather defending and supporting at least initially the overwhelming majority of the chinese population, and bus promoting and allowing a momentous and both unparalleled in human history. My frame of reference for inflicting upon politics and government all of them all of which have to do with the social, political and cultural backlash against a globalization and the numerous countries and regions around the world. What we call it globalization but we could also call it modernization, western style. This longterm process that started sometimes in the end of the 18th century and its environment we have conveniently edited the violence but in fact it is a process of modernization in the country included that was not smooth and soft. This backlash comes in different formats and versions of. At the beginning of the 20th century it also comes in different formats. Communism and naturalism are not the same thing, social democracy is certainly not, but they were all backlashes against the first globalization. It is things like terrorism and the expression, fundamentalism, trump, germany and elsewhere and of course i would say [inaudible] among them, the centrality of the discourse of the people against they win in the case and others other the populist backlash however has also some distinctive features. One of the most particularly in relation to the west that it covers the instances that are now present in the World Without a clear external enemy or other enemy it is against the mexican elites. Indications are the massive budgetary shift in favor of the population and to raise the minimum wage and very major labor reform a president that speaks like them and another particular i mentioned briefly that this is i think social in contrast for instance with the previous populist wave in latin america on the left shows and at aversion to confrontation with the u. S. And finally, another not common characteristic is a strong commitment to fiscal discipline and monetary stability. In the location produced by the democracy and the open markets and left behind countries most importantly, it is more akin to the regime change and peaceful resolution into the regular beginning of an administration to engineer a major institutional violence of social power, operative being balance of social power and in favor of the working classes and socially excluded as well as of the basic rules that make it impossible for them to stop being so. Let me repeat its not in the positive, if in the negative. He wants to dismantle the basic set of rules that make it impossible for the sectors to stop being excluded. It perpetuates inequality and privilege. It is a strong and deeply uncomfortable transformation of the goals, priorities and instruments of government in favor of all this actually the poor and that is the move towards goals and aspirations that are not the ones that we have grown accustomed to thinking the neoliberal dream going down the window is a difficult airport. To describe and interpret things its critically important as a sense of moral compass to provide grounding and meaning to both individual and collective choice. The practice in relation to the macroeconomic stability and relationship in the United States and the use of force and coercion trying to regain territorial control they shift the government attention in favor of the poor marginalized and excluded and willingness to break out of the standard neoliberal recipe book and to engage in an incredible amount of experimentation. Most importantly that made it impossible to have a functional relationship between the social demand for Government Services and Government Services. The on the Positive Side into the realm of the possible and the return of the impossible. Under the negatives in the first transformation of the project with the opposing point of view they found other tendencies and inattention to the importance of the strong bureaucratic and professional governmental capabilities, complete disregard in the. For the disregard of thoughtful distain it may be a bit unnecessary on the middle classes which could end up feeding the type of anxiety that you and the country know very well and that often the perfect for the extreme right. In the standing in the wake of sociaway ofsocial economic and l border conduct conducive to social inclusion and some of the liability column more emphasis on the destruction of existing arrangements than the construction of new ones. After many months of trying to understand what they think, want and mean, i see his young self borrowing is an alienated young man of promise in a very long line of similar ones. Sean and excluded from societies that scorned them in details of the comments for individual freedom and opportunity in the places marked by the differences in wealth status income and education. Today i see him as a man endowed with enormous power on votes, yes but also under the support of millions of mexicans. Long excluded, exploited and edited away. The types of political phenomenon in the victor victord the succession to the president ial power has unleashed, i see that this regime in the making in the left side of the political spectrum which makes it quite unique in the world today, that combination and globalization backlash on the left. In my balance of what has happened so far in relation to what he promised a into the complete disregard for to complete disregard for Institutional Limited expert knowledge. All in all, summing it up, but i see is an opportunity that i may never see in my lifetime it from tradeconcentrates the skills ann opportunity no more and it will translate into more stability for the future. Theres probably a lot of continued destruction most probably for the full six years and little Economic Growth. Anxious times and the extreme uncertainty and we want to know we can put food on the table every day. We want to be seen and heard.