We are joined as well by matt guaranteed you know a professor at st. Lawrence university. We frequently Work Together on forgot issues. It also runs an Excellent Program in nairobi to celebrate its 45th anniversary. Matt was there doing research and bringing some alumni along on the trip. They had a great Semester Program in africa. From Freedom House the Relief Program in africa. I also want to thank john for an outstanding article that he coauthored in the Current Issue of Foreign Affairs. On some of the new promising democratic movements and some of africas biggest countries which was largely the inspiration for this email. We modified it a little bit. South africa democratic republic of the congo where i was a peace corps volunteer hundred years ago when it was practically before building congo days and also that nigeria so between these kids six countries we have nearly half of africas rep ovulation represented. A fair amount of helpful notes as well. No one is going to say is going great but we thought it was a useful way of bringing together a potential framework to talk about some countries to have promises on the democracy front and more broadly even though of course they all struggle and any progress is still fragile. With that i am going to and the baton to Suzanne Maloney or Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy. So she thinks about this continent herself and she is going to be a moderator today. Thank you for all of you for coming out on this monday morning in august, glad to see is a packed house and i look forward to a really interesting and inspiring conversation. I like to start with professor garrett and udo. If you could give us kind of the historical sense and situate this moment over the course of history. Where do we stand and particularly if you might focus on kenya. Thank you, thank you brookings for inviting me. When i was thinking about this event that we think about africa security kind of broadly defined across the continent. As it is doing i evidently want to emphasize that there is not a onesizefitsall approach. We have to think about local histories, cultural contexts, and even the colonial legacy 50 years removed in most places from independence. Security i think when we think about this as well depends on the governance accountability protection of human rights, access to basic services and they growing an inclusive economy. So its a very complex topic. Even if we are thinking about the six countries. Everything about african governments, historically we will talk about governance questions, it is often defined as a conventional thinking on democracy where we see gains across the continent without a precondition of being in middle income country. But her turnout and enthusiasm for the electoral process are very high across the continent. Thats a good thing. Its all is also important for us to know that this is a very young democracy. Most african states have their First National election into the 1950s and into the 1990s if you think about south africa. If you we think about the last 50 years or so we think about the 1960s and 70s, early 70s for hope and optimism but one that is often in an author at taurean term. Where cold war politics backed up the dictatorial rule and National Leaders criminalize dissent as being unpatriotic. Is that course or problematic Nature Stores after african governments and issues related to security throughout the 6070s and 80s. The end of the cold war sparked a political across the cant and it and a lot of gains throughout the 90s but weve seen a bit of a backside in some places. A lot of the democratic gains in the last ten years or so, have been uneven. So Current Trends and thinking about this and thinking about some of the major issues that are framing a lot of these debates one of which is about the decentralization. A political power with the local government, National Government, executive branch has said. Often that has focused on a winner take approach and african elections which is been a recipe for potential conflict. Also if you think about sometimes we focus too much on elections and not as much about institutions. We will talk about the role. How africans across the countries is also quite important. Womens voices, youth and minorities are also important to discuss. For historian and thinking about justice and closed conflict situations have often framed how issues of insecurity have been persistent in some areas of the accident. Finally, just before i get to kenya for a minute or two, thinking about kind of the role that regional bodies play, the African Union, first and foremost, also regional bodies like acolytes and africa. How they play in managing regional issues National Securities within the continent. If we think about kenya, an area that i do most of my work in the mike said as our institution hamza longstanding offcampus program there. If we think about kenyan issues of security i can think about them in a few ways. One of which is the external prop. To be depressed, much of the external threat comes from issues that are developing relationships through somalia. Particularly the eschenbach and surgeon group. That formed in 2006 and since 2011, the Kenyan Military had an operation in Southern Somalia and enjoyed the Amazon Mission in the region. That has not failed a crossborder issues that sparked the invasion of Kenya Security forces since 2011, there have been more than 250 attacks in the country. That can to be attributed to alshabaab. Including several highprofile ones. And then most notably and most recently the january in roby which marked the third anniversary of the kenyas military defeat outside the country. If we think about this from an external threat, its really a part for us to think about some issues of marginalization the northeastern part of the country, as long been sort of marginalized issues of local development and often reach for two as the Northern Frontier district in the cold colonial days it was a backwater for National Level investment in infrastructure education and all of these things that contributed to many of this sort of local somalia population in the kenya population. Recruitment issues among still shabbat which has exacerbated some of this questions. The issue from an external sense has been very heavyhanded one scholar noted that it was like killing mosquito with a hammer. Actual judicial violence often targeting small you population discriminate late. Threat that closed refugee camps in 2016, have been quite problematic. We can get into some of those kind of questions and more issues and complexities as we talk about it. From the internal standby, governance and internal division certainly frame a lot of the security questions and of regionally but also specifically to kenya electoral violence, three of the last six democratic elections in kenya since 192091 has been marked by Political Violence. Thats often because of the four kenyan elections have been a winner take all approach. There is a lot invested in these. If we think about political and violence in kenya i think is important for us to talk not just about reductive terms like ethnicity but also think about logic questions about income inequality. If we look at the history and the country that has fueled some of this competitions over land, the lack of dealing with historical injustices dating back to the colonial period. They are all at these complex roads and thinking about them. Just this to bid on that if you look at voting analysis from 2013, the opposition candidate in kenya one 60 percent or 68 percent of the poorest country. So one of the bright spots, kenya hamza robust Civil Society. A relatively free press, and a history of criminalizing defense. Investments have been quite high in recent years but what what cost. China owns more than 20 percent of kenyas foreign debt, much of that fueling kenya and in what is the cost that is going to happen in the future. A lot of debates are about evolution of power trying to check the historic power of the presidency in kenya. These debates are quite healthy and a lot of us who study kenya politics are quite pleased with what is happening at the local level. Peoples interest in races of govern and members of county assemblies holy checks and balances at the local level rather at the National Level. If we look finally at the latest attack that happened in january 2019, the doucette hotel, the Security Forces responded in ways that were much more effective. In dealing with that as we compare it to the hotel attack in 2013 which was marked by an organization whos in charge of our people going to respond within minutes of that attack, albeit quite severe, the Security Forces were on the ground and they were unable to successfully evacuate more than 700 people from that region. So i think there is a lot to s say. If we think about this though we are not talking about just kenya youre talking about in a regional and continental contacts. Its important to say how is this affecting kenyas role in the region. Kenya is a major player in africa. Historically the governance and business center. Its history, both Political Violence and dealing with descent, dealing with threats on terrorism i think have entered kenyas ability to interact and providing sort of a model in the region. Not being outspoken for instance about checking authoritarian rule in barada uganda and even most recently in tanzania. I think that is some up at the heart which is making it difficult for kenya to maintain itself as a regional player and is sort of regional player. Ill stop there. Im going to ask to speak to the questions about nigeria and willing and able to fit it in an early enrollment. Two countries experiencing successful internal politics. And obviously playing an enormous role in political role in the region. Thank you so much. Speaking about nigeria and i want to talk about friends. Affecting the overall governance of include the rapid population growth by 2030 1. 7 billion people. 80 percent of the growth will be in cities. That will also have an impact. Knowing in the 90s, marshall position cities. [inaudible] government transition after very simply the mid 90s inaudible. [inaudible] the rapid growth in industries and manufacturing but also job incentives this is important because more of the 60 we have an important shortage in terms of employment. We have a couple of original integration with the african effect oh ability. When mobilization in south africa where people have access to come into work from beltway. Finally, they also democratic backsliding. So i think the country from the 90s to 2010 about where you have many countries which. [inaudible] example of countries such as the democratic affecting important factors. This makes a difference on how countries are ran and generate movement in the northwest part of the country. Coming to nigeria, i will be speaking about the election and the prospect. They have one elections and a National Level that those many layers will highlight most african countries democratic system. [inaudible] check and balance is the winner takes all. The president could be emphatic but however in the wake of running the country the history impact. Its very interesting that in kenya, decides a new election will be held after. [inaudible] which means delivery of checks and balances is quite needed. Let me speak about four or six key trends in nigeria. Extremely important, why. First off nigerias part of the african countries and also has about 20 percent of the gdp of the continent and about 75 percent of the gdp of the west region. So nigeria is just too big to ignore. The second one is also rated to export. Najarian has about 94 Million People living below the line. 7 percent of the population is represented. If you really want, you have to include nigeria and the other part of the continent and in the numbers will be much lower. It will be a factor especially with the democratic boom, which will be either in. [inaudible] a second factor that most of you know about. [inaudible] we also have the Islamic State of the west africa program. Which has led to more than 2 million sets of people and thousands of people dead. It just doesnt affect nigeria. It also affects the borders and more part of the region. Also involves other countries. So we also have one of the challenges they henchmen and fabrics. If conflicted next generally and led to the death of thousands of people, if could you tell as received due to Climate Change, there is a deep on education, a drop of rain went from the rain season went from one and 50 days on average to one in. [inaudible]. For water, which adds to insecurity order affect us. We also have detentions and nine china, we have submitted from time to time, the remain important, need to be effectively addressed for the content. An important adopt which brings us to an important. Anyone who would be president of nigeria will be extremely complex. Many challenge, as its not easy to be for nigeria and when we add that corruption, we think of other options but more transparency if needed. Liberal corruptions and currently hide and on occasion with some investor, will tell me how much debate across the border. Those factors also involve some of the challenges decided to suspend the chief justice, so let me and about nigeria now. Let me turn it over to one of my colleagues to speak about south africa. Me now turn the mic to the peace corps volunteer in congo, quite a few years ago but you have been following the situation there very closely. Particularly over the past year and have had an opportunity to engage with presidency to kenny and i wonder if you would say a few words about where you think things are going with that. Thank you im just going to put my ideas out and not be perfectly analytically balance. I am feeling awful about the rc. Thats going to be my bottom line. There are a lot of reasons not to be too awful. As a person who was a peace Corps Officer there in the 1980s and saw the decline which of course, they did in the end of the regime and civil war fare in the east and now we have any gold light outbreak that the World Health Organization has just declared a World Health Emergency and Public Health emergency. You might wonder how someone could talk about hopefulness. Also where the president even though he was not the preferred candidate former president kabila is still seem to want an election that was not clean. We have previously handled here in the last 12 months but we try to get that candidate and we also had tom. Ella, former great lakes envoy. Talking about the politics a lot of people are very worried thinking the election was again rigged to some extent. We are concerned that they have done a deal with kabila and there may have been some kind of understanding for all i know. But i am still hopeful because as john wrote in his article about angola, even when there is an effort to sort of control a progress and, there is an opportunity for a new president , to break from the past two at least an extent. At least to begin to reform human rights practices. Being the son of the famous human rights campaigner, and activist, hamza powerful Family Tradition of promoting human rights. Even though the congos Political Solutions are not strong, is not completely independent, the Prime Minister and the Parliament May be many ways of kabila there is an opportunity for at least some political space. To emerge here and we have seen congo, go up and down and with the economy with the institutes of copper prices with the backs of conflicts in the east and now we left, again on its ability to engage but nonetheless, there is gentle positive movement on the economic front as well. Still one of the poorest countries on earth if you look at the ci textbook, and ranks over 200 i didnt even know there was that many countries on earth. Congo rake so badly its even a higher number than the higher than the number of countries i thought there was on the country. I guess that reflects on me not knowing the numbers on the exact count. The bottom line i really want to drive home is that i know that the congolese people and i just the most vibrant society, is the most energetic people and yes Political Institutions have been weak yes corruption is evasive but this is the people who hamza powerful spirit and hunter very neuronal spirit and i think in a way if government can just partly get outoftheway. We will be in a place that we can do a little bit better. I have some ideas on specific means by which we could expedite this in the months and years ahead but i will save that for later on. My bottom line is that a little over a half year in the ten year i see at least glimmers of hope on a number of fronts. Human rights some degree of political, some degree of movement on the economy, and to me is a lot more than ive seen in 35 years of watching and living and loving congo so i am going to voice a positive note. Great thank you. Let me turn to you about the elections and the outcomes of elections and the prospects for the development of genuine strong institutions of checks and balances around the region. Written specifically and broadly about the prospects of south africa i wonder if you could give us a broad tour and may be focusing on a couple of the countries of your choosing. Sure im happy to do that. Maybe the place to start is really to know the fact that we are seeing an incredible rate of l