Good morning and welcome to the center. I hope you liked our movie and hope you like this event, Chicago Council engage in retreat, american views on u. S. Foreign policy. I am jane harman president and ceo of the wilson center, member of congress and happy to be here at a place where we engage in bipartisan civil conversation, deep research into active thinking about the future of the worlworld into that spirit, lete introduce the fifth time that ivo dallder and the Chicago Council are here to release their survey of the American Public opinion. Its a Great Partnership that we have in the prior report and its an enduring alliance. Its also reassuring to me to learn the good news in this report that americans in huge bipartisan margins continue their support in an active u. S. Role in Foreign Policy and world affairs. Much of the vision for that role, to brag here, started with woodrow wilsobouguereau will ser 28th president for whom the sentrys name who served a century ago. Downstairs in memorial hall, wilsons word part of the quotes davis is a fearful thing to leave this great peaceful people into war, but the right is more precious than peace and we shall fight for the things which we have always carried nearest to our hearts. For democracy, for the right of those that submit to authority to have a voice in their own government. For a universal opinion of rights by such a concert of three people to bring peace and safety to all nations and make the world itself at last free. That was the addition of century ago. He tried hard, die, die trying literally, but a hundred years later we are still struggling with the challenges that he raised and the audience in this auditorium and online does this send her into the Chicago Council are needed more than ever to conduct deep scholarship and leadership to the global challenges. So, welcome to the panel today. Especially to our dear friend and presenter. I think i told you i was in brussels about a month ago and stayed with our current ambassador to former twoterm number from texas and all on the wall was ivo dallder. We have had great successors including her, she has the brief tougher than the one you said. No one should forget two days before 9 11 that on 9 11 they tow was ready to come to the common defense. Also here are Richard Fontaine ive been hinting about him, but fairly newly minted head and executive director for north american Trilateral Commission, which is a group that many of you have heard of you im involved with its committee they are back to play a more active role in the International Affairs and finally, the woman who knows everything o does evee Chicago Council senior fellow dina smeltz who will amplify parts of the report. The answer is that i sit down which i will do right now and ask them questions to elicit some of the reviews and then guess what, we want the smartest audience in the world, that would be you, to ask some questions, not mak not because , but identify yourself and i see in the audience he will send Council Member who was a great consumer like all of you are. Welcome to the panel and lets get going. As this is our fifth rodeo, theres some dispute between the site if its the fifth rodeo i am recalling all of your good reports said basically the same thing that americans by an overwhelming authority wont be part of the foreignpolicy. In the Public Opinion it stayed pretty constant. Why do you think this is . The public has a basic view of how they engage and it hasnt really changed from the cold war. Go into the postcold war period into whatever. How we are living in now and i dont know if i want to characterize it in a way t thato say that its different. That is fundamentally bought into what we call now the postwar rulesbased International Order not only of the country that has created continues to shape and maintain International Order based on three fundamental principles and once again this reaffirms the commitment to the principles. Number one, that we engage the Security Affairs to the allies and alliances and have the supporting alliances now and greater levels than any time in 45 years including that organization we just talked about in order to maintain or increase the commitment it is now at the highest level in 45 years. And with support as the highest since we first asked the question in 2002. In the middle east that remains extremely high as the question whether they should use the troops to defend its allies. So, in all of those ways the Public Opinion remains supportive of alliances. In the open Economic System based on the concept of trade come in again the public is more supportive now than it has been any time weve asked questions about trade including one to believe that its good for the American Economy. A piece of , that is a large number finally one of the new things needed in this report, we have been asking the question that goes back to 1946 should the United States played an active role in this year as last year we reached near record high. It includes things like alliances, International Trade agreements. The United States has to be the beacon for freedom and democracy and human rights for supportive nois moresupportive now than itr been in the time that ive been asking these questions. Am i watchinanion watching at movie in the last several years we expect the nato allies to make a big difference for some of the projects in the country. In spite of all of that, the American Public stays constant. Are they not riding into the . They are rejecting it in a very fundamental way. Its very important findings it if its mostly the allies that are mutually beneficial, large majorities of their either a truly beneficial or benefit the United States. So if the european alliances with support of the 65 or benefit to the United States or only 20 of those pink with the president thinks witches they are beneficial only for the hour. The same is true on trade and we ask the question do you think trade is useful for those we are trading with us or for both overwhelmingly the answer is both. So this idea of the transactional relationship where we do stuff in return for payment as opposed to the mutual interest to the both of us it is by the way it has been for 75 years. Do you want to add something to that . We have been tracking it over the past three years and in fact you might expect some of the America First policies. The u. S. Economy into relations with the United States and other countries so it is even to underscore what theyve always said the last 40 to 45 years. Let me probe of the more with you. Its more or less constant if you do the math they have more support. The loudest part of the elite on the trunk side believe the same thing. They are louder and take up more space in the Public Discourse is. So they still capture that portion of the vote and they care more perhaps about some of these issues than the add generic and who doesnt always have the time and attention to page two things about alliances but that is where the issue is like immigration and Climate Change they might attract some voters or that might be what they are both engaged about. Have had a slew of ambassadors. He said he didnt ask. He was just told her that its pretty darn amazing. Okay so, richard, we havent talked about congress. You did work there for one lifetime for john mccain. Aoff like two lifetimes. I would like you to think about john mccain and what he taught so many of us about foreignpolicy. He was the leader of many congressional delegations on international trips. I went on at least ten to the security conference in munich germany in february and then attended another decade since. But john mccain among other things was the pied piper of foreignpolicy and he taught all of us how to think about a world and its challenges. It would be helpful to tell us about that and also tell us about what you are doing at the Trilateral Commission and how a person outside of this report thinks about what they just achieved. Some of the findings in this particular report would coincide with where senator mccain came down on the side of the world. Since the end of world war ii, there have been three animating principles of the foreignpolicy to keep the peace we would have strong alliances underwritten by the former deployment of american troops and increased prosperity to the international Economic System by free trade into the disparate forces of freedom when possible, we would have a bias in favor of democratic systems versus the autocrats. The debate between republicans and democrats and conservatives and liberals its more how you do those things, how you make the tradeoff and embrace the princely autocrats verse is the democracy movement, how big of a military do you need. Its not really whether we do those things and i think weve gotten into the time theres a lot of questioning of the most senior levels whether those are the right principles and its good to have alliances and free trade or should we all forgot, is it good to promote democracy when we should put our noses in places its not welcome. Then you get into the argument about how to do with all that its not a reputation. The fact that there does seem to be the public feeling one way. It is diffuse benefits of the concentrated costs. Raise your hand if you feel the cost associated in the tariffs. Probably nobody can feel that there is a cost. Does anybody feel those costs . If you work in the aluminum industry that you are going to lose your job come even though the cost to the American Economy was 700,000 it certainly isnt your salary, then you feel it a lot more strongly so you are more likely to vote on that issue. If john mccain were still in the senate, i wish he were, but what would he be saying right now . Andree would probably be on a plane to afghanistan right now and i think that he would be wondering a couple of things. One, as he did frankly until his passing a year ago if we adopt a policy of entrenchment, whatever you want to call it, what comes next, is it true if the United States steps back whether its the will tliterally, diplomatict of friendly local step up in a spirit of burden sharing, fill the gap and do things in our interest that we would prefer not to do, i think the answer is no. The answer would be no. Is that the cas it the case that sort of get out of afghanistan for example didnfor example har assurances that they will behave in trade with an appropriately we dont have to be there and we can have what we want out of it and the then that puts a set of requirements on the United States for engagement that gets back to the foreignpolicy sum of the political leaders today. Let me stay with that for one minute because nobody missed the news the last 24 hours about the canceled talks with the taliban and at camp david. I want everyone in congress except one person who authorized the use of military force against those that attacked us based on afghanistan. I voted for it. Barbara lee was the only no vote, 535 votes and she did that as a matter of principle and i respect her courage in doing that. Weve prosecuted our case. I would say looking back especially when you add iraq that we didnt have an adequate day after strategy for either of the war and we are still in them especially the one in afghanistan is do we have a day after strategy for getting out of the war . The answer is no. I suppose the United States would be staying in some capacity they cobbled together the present but the day after strategy seemed to be turned over to the locals in hopes that things go well after we leave afghanistan and appears the best deal we can get making perfectly clear we are getting out irrespective of what the deal looks like a. Anybody that has done these things if you want to see certain conditions you have to be willing to go back in terms of Public Opinion personnel i think generally speaking that is probably not a bad analytical judgment on their part is and i think there are lessons to be learned. We are now in the third administration. We forgot about afghanistan with enough humor to it focused on iraq and didnt resource the strategy as well as we should. The general talks about the failure of tora bora into the decisions he was leading in lean kandahar into the mountains to deal with that issue and in everything that has come before. One of the things we shouldnt forget if this is a war that even today, one third of all the forces that are in afghanistan are not american. They are allied forces both who continue to fight alongside th them. He was a romanian soldier that was killed on thursday alongside that we didnt have a strategy for resolving the issue and frankly the strategy we now have is not that different from the strategy we had the previous administration. How do we get out without anyone noticing, the problem is the other guy notices when we leave it as a result will take action locally to our interest is to the interest of i would add to the strategy may be the wrong word. Word. We are in a transaction to try to achieve results. You hav have said that you are solved. Were solved. This stuff shouldnt be when lose. It should be winwin. I looked at this again and just have everyone contemplate this and then we will go. Its a fearful thing to lead us into the war the right is more s more precious than peace and we shall fight for the things weve carried nearest you mentioned that there are two places, i think that its too and you mentioned it again, or three instead of th the americans pulg together with more robust support, they are pulling apart and one of them is immigration where you say that fears about t immigration are growing 78 . 78 to 19. Second one is Climate Change, which is at the top of the democrats agenda. 70 of democrats see it as critical, where 23 of republicans see it as critical and third is the development of china as a world power and the majority of republicans are concerned for the First Time Since 2002. Explain to us by th why the cons is growing in other areas. Climate change and immigration have long been issues that are dividing the American People. If you look at page 25 it shows immigration is a threat to you can see that early on the back of the republicans ar were not really that different. Now in the trunk era, republicans are even more fearful of immigration in the democrats have been steadily declining. Part of that has to do with the Democratic Party it is younger and more diverse than the Republican Party which has pretty much stayed the same but. Tell us about the polling sample. It reminds me because lets be sure that you did this perfectly. Shuler. It was a sample of about 2,000 people we used an online polling organization that draws the sample from the actual addresses and its not like those that you often see in the newspapers or online where people self select and answer some of these people are actually chosen in a statistical way so that nationwide representative on page 39 issues what kind of breaks down according to the demographics and if you have questions, we can. There is a divide on immigration having to do with the Democratic Party. And its barely enough. In our dna and others come immigration was a key factor in support for donald trump come of antiimmigration and he is hes amplified it in a way that is done and you can also see that on page 26, despite that gap, there is a bit of overlap. Its funnand its funny becausee past when comprehensive Immigration Reform seems like a possibility in the George Bush Administration i should point out. The large majority support it. You can get a hint of that on page 26t 26 majorities of democ, republicans and did support a pathway to citizenship for the Illegal Immigrants int and havea clean criminal record. Its also bipartisan. That is the basis of coming to some kind of an agreement. But we know that it hasnt been able to occur. It has really captured so much attention and legislative. What about the Climate Change. So, we had a brief but is coming out soon including questions to ask about what the democrats want. The Green New Deal and the candidates are talking about the Climate Change and it could be that theyve pushed the delete but anyway they are on the same page. Denying the fact is Climate Change with what happened a couple of years ago in a further recount with all the hurricane damage in grenada damage in the u. S. And the rising heat in the summer. They then say its Climate Change and might be manmade or both manmade and cyclical. As a threat if only moved a little bit from 2016 to 23. We are questioning whether it is a really a problem and it needs to be addressed. These changes are happening slowly and that is still in my view an improvement for questioning whether it needs to be addressed at all and part of this politicization of Climate Change has happened in. In the 90s Climate Change and Global Warming got att