The new novel who are you kevin bledsoe. We also have some author events tickets are Still Available for the conversation and the author talk on wednesday tonight we welcome the author of liberty ai but to know that we are not on the doorstep of fully Autonomous Cars are super intelligent machines. Taking the human mind to advance Artificial Intelligence to the next level we dont need to worry about the machine overlords. Finally a book that tells us what ai is and is not and what it could become if we are ambitious and creative enough. The ceo of robust ai and founder and ceo of geometrics intelligence he publishes and journals of science and nature the youngest Professor Emeritus at nyu. Thank you. [applause] this is not good. We had some technical difficulties. Im here to talk about this new book rebooting ai you may have seen the oped in the New York Times called how to build Artificial Intelligence we can trust. People either building a lot of Artificial Intelligence we cannot d trust. It has a trust problem we rely on ai more and more but it has not earned our confidence and we also suggest that there is a problem but a lot of ai is overhyped by people who are very prominent in the fields of one of the leaders of deep learningee which is an approach said that typical person can do a mental task in less than one second but we could automate it using ai in the near future thats a profound claim anything you could do in one second we could get ai to do if that is true the world would change altogether. May be some day i will try to persuade you it is not true now. But the problem is we have things like Driverless Cars they think they can trust but theyue shouldnt and sometimes they die in the process. This is a picture from a few weeks ago that a tesla crashed into a stopped Emergency Vehicle for that has happened five times in the last year on autopilot has crashed into a vehicle on the side of the road. Heres another example i hope this doesnt happen to my robots in the security robots committed suicide by walking into a puddle. [laughter] and so andrew says they can do anything in one second but a person can look at the puddle and say maybe i should not go in there but also bias that people have talkedav about lately. You could do a Google Search for the word professor you get Something Back they are all white mailed those of the statistics only 40 percent are white male look around the world is much lower than that. So systems take a lot of data but they dont know if its good but they just perpetuate it back out under stereotypes. The underlying problem right now is the techniques people are using are too brittle. Everybody is excited about deep learning it is good for a few things, actually many things like object recognition. To recognize this is a bottle or microphone or my face distinguished from my uncle ted. Deep learning can help some with radiology but all the things it is good at falls into one category of human intelligence is perceptual classification if you see a bunch of examples then you have to identify further examples that look or sound the same. But that doesnt mean that one technique is useful for everything. I wrote a critique a year and a half ago online wired wrote a great summary that it is opaque and shallow and there are deep down inside so it doesnt mean it is perfect but first i will give you a real counterpart prick if you are running a business and wanted to use ai you need to know what can it do for you and what can it not if you are thinking of ethics and what machines could do soon then you realize there are limits system is of a typical person can do them mental task with less than one second of thought with the enormous amount of data that is directly relevant then as long as the test data that makes the systems work is different than what we taught the system on thats not too terribly different and if it doesnt change overan time. So this is a recipe that says what ai is good at light games so the best player in the world is better than a human and thats exactly what they are good at the system i hasnt changed the game hasnt changed 2500s, years you have rules with as much data as you like for free. The computer can play itself for different versions of, itself and keep playing itself in gathering more data now compare that to a robot of elder care or you dont want that to collect the infinite amount of data through trial andd error. If youre elder care robot works 95 percent of the time and drops grandpa 5 percent you look at lawsuits and bankruptcy. That will not fly for the elder care robot. When it works those Neural Networks fundamentally takes big data with physical approximations so you labeled a bunch of pictures of tiger wood woods, golf balls and then Angelina Jolie and then tiger woods and it can correctly identify this is tiger woods not Angelina Jolie. This is the sweet spot. Its not able to do what you would be able to do which is first to recognize it as a silhouette. Its the generalization and people cant really do this so its getting used in the systems that make the judgments about whether peopljudgment aboutwhetn jail or should get particular jobs and soer tfo forth so it ie limited. In a snow bank access with great confidence that is a snowplow and what that tells you is that cares about things like the texture of the road and the snow is no difference between a snowplow and school bus or what they are for. At the right it was i made by people at mit if you are a deep learning system you would say espresso because theres foam that isnt super visible because of the lighting. But it doesnt understand it is a baseball. Other learning system. In the sticker fo the deep learg top one tos from the the bottom on a toaster and it doesnt have a way of doing what you would do. Url rapist is starting to control the society you are not paying attention. To go without the slightest course because of technical difficulties. I will continue though. One second here to look at mn notes. I was next going to show a picture of a parking sign with stickers on it. Presenting slides over the web isnt going to work. The deep learning system calls that a refrigerator with a love of food and drink. Then i was going to show a picture of a dog that is doing a bench press with a barbell. Yes, something has gone wrong. Picture a dog with a barbell. It cant tell yo can tell you ty weird how did it get to that it could lift a barbell. People are learning the concept of the things that is looking at. Even more when it comes to reading so im going to read a short little story Laura Ingalls wilder wrote. Its about a 9yearold boy who finds a wallet full of money dropped on thet street and then his father guesses it might belong to somebody named mr. Thompson said he finds mr. Thompson. He turns. To him and asks di tht you did you lose a pocketbook . Yes, what do you know about it, is this it, yes. He opens it and counts the money and counts the bills and breathes a sigh of relief and says he didnt steal any of it. The boy hasnt stolen any of the money or where the money might be. It wouldnt be there and so forth. All these things could make entrances about things like how everyday objects work and how people work so you can answer questions on whats going on. There is no system gets that can actually do that is the closest thinso the closestthing we havem released. They are going to give it away for free and that is what makes it so interesting so they gave away a book they made this thi thing. Oey didnt want the world to have it people figured out how it worked and now you can use it on the internet. Hes found g a wallet and he is now super happy. You feed intot the story and it took a lot of time may be an hour to get the money from the safe place where he hid it and this makes no sense. Its perfectly grammatical but what is it doing it is just they are correlated in a database but its different from the kind of understanding children do so the second half of the talk i will do without visuals is called looking for clues. The first clue as we develop further is to realize perception is just part of what intelligence is. Some of you might know how this is so this verbal intelligence, musical intelligence and so forth as a cognitive psychologist i would say things like common sense, there are many differentnt components. What we have right now is a form of intelligence is one of those and its good at doing things that fit with that, good at certain kinds of gambling but it doesnt mean that it can do everything else. The way i think about it is it is a great hammer and we have a lot of people looking around saying because i have a hammer everything must be a nail. Some things work with that but theres been much less progress on language so i would say theres been exponential progress in how well computers play games but theres been zero progress getting them to understand the conversations and thats because intelligence itself has many different components, no Silver Bullet to stop it. There is no substitute for common sense. The picture i wanted to show you right now is a robot with a chainsaw cutting down the wrong side if you can imagine so its about to fall down. This would be bad. We wouldnt want to solve it with a technique called reinforcement learning you would like a fleet of 100,000 robots and chainsaws making 100,000 mistakes, that would be bad. Then i was going to show you this picture of something called a yarn feeder that is a little bowl with a string that comes out of the hole. Ug you have enough common sense how physics works and what we would do with it to understand that im going to show you a picture of an ugly one so youou can recd is this even though it looks different because you get the basic concept, thats what common sense is about. Then i k was going to show you a picture of a roomba and motel and a dog doing its business you might say. The roomba doesnt know the difference between the two, and then i was conditioning is something that something that has happened not once but many times which is rome but that doesnt know the difference between a fellow that they should clean up and maybe dog swaste that is spread through peoples houses its been described as a Jackson Pollock of Artificial Intelligence common sense disaster. Then what i really wish i could show you the most is my daughter claiming a chair like the ones you have now. 4yearsold, theres a space between the bottom of the chair in the back of the chair. She was small enough to fit through and she didnt do this reinforcement learning which is trying, she didnt give it by imitation, i was never able to come and for those who though she never watched the Television Show dukes of hazard to get inside the window of a car. She just invented for herself a goal and this is the essence of how children learn things they rt a goal like can i do this or that, can i walk on a small ridge on the side of the road. I have two children, five and six and a half they make up games like what about this or can i do that so she tried it and learned essentially in one minute, she got a little stock and did a little problem solving. This is different than collecting data with labels the way that its working right now and i would suggest we need to take some clues from kids and how they do things. Next thing from harvard down the street she made the argument know that there are objects and places and things like that that you can learn about but if you just know about pixels and videos you cant really do that. You need a starting point this is the opposite of the blank slate hypothesis. Then i like to show a video nobody likes to think humans have anything in need other than their temperament. People dont want to think that they are built with notions of space and time and causality. Im suggesting a i should do what nobody has a problem thinking animals might do this so i show planning on the side of the mountain a few hours after its born but anybody that sees the video has to realize there is something built in from the minute it comes out it must do something about this at us. The next video shows a bunch of robots doing things like Opening Doors and falling over or trying to get into a car and falling over. Im sad i cannot show you this right now, but you get the point. If they are really quite ineffective in the real world. The video i was going to show beenhings that had simulated. Everybody knew exactly what the events were going to be they just had to have the robots over the door and turn files and stuff like that. When it got to the real world, the robots fell left and right and couldnt deal with things like friction and windy and so forth. When people would have been better off worrying about hygiene. We should worry about the limits of using print ai a lot so anyway on the topic i suggest a few things that you can do. The first one is just closed the door. Robotsow right now cant open doors. If that doesnt work, walk the door so there isnt even a competition gets to have them block the doors and it will be like another seven or ten years before people start working on doors where youve got to kind of pol pull in the mob and stuff like that so just lock the door or pick up one of the stickers i showed you and you will completely confuse the robots or talk with an accent in a noisy room. The second thing i want to say is deep learning is better than we did before and let us climb to a certain height. Just because it is better to send me an its going to necessarily get you to the moon. We have a helpful tool here that we have to discern as listeners and readers and so forth the difference between doing a little bit o and some magical fm that simply hasnt been invented yet. So, to close then we will take as many as we can. To build machines as smart as people we need to start by studying small people. Human children and how they are flexible enough to understand the world in a way that ai isnt able yet to do. Thank you very much. [applause] i am a retired Orthopedic Surgeon and got out just in time because they are coming out with robotic surgery prominence and then the t replacement. The dream is the robots can do the surgery itself. Like any other tool in order to get the robots to be able to the fullservice, they need to understand the underlying biology of what they are working on so they need to understand the relationship between the different parts they are working with and our ability to do that right now is limited in the kind of reason im talking about so there would be advances in the next year but i wouldnt expect that when we send people to mars whenever that is if it is anytime soon thaanytime soon tha sort of robot surgeon w like in sciencehe fiction. There is no reason we cant build such things into the machines better understanding, but we dont have the tools right now to allow them to caabsorb the medical training. It reminds me of a famous experiment in the Cognitive Development where a chimpanzee obviously named after noam chomsky was trained and raised in the human environment and the answer is no. If you said a current robot in medical school wouldnt work diddly squat or helpro it to bea robotic surgeon. Another question. It seems like maybe it is logically possible to build them, but the problem you get is a player cases if you teach a model system they are different han you see in the real world. So, the case of the tow truck sent firetrucks is probably in part because they are trained on kind of ordinary data where they are moving fast on the highway andd it doesnt really understad how to respond, so i dont know whether they are ultimately going to prove to be closer to something which we can get something to work in the Current Technology or language which seems completely out of sight of the rain that people have been working on it for 30 or 40 years and this progress but itsgr relatively slow. People solve one problem and it causes another so the first was a test love that ran underneath a semi trailer that took a left turn onto a highway so first of all, you had h a problem that it was outside of the training. Ive been told what would happen is they thought that it was a billboard and the system had been programmed to ignore billboards because if it did and was going to slow down so often that it was going to be rear ended all the time so one problem solved. Would havwhat happened this dris cars felt a lot like whack a mole. To my mind they dont have general unique so people say i will use more data. Right now they need human intervention about every 12,000 miles the last i checked. That sounds impressive so if you want to get it at this level you have a lot more work to do and it isnt clear the same techniques will get us there. This again is the metaphor it is and this is reall only going tot you tout the moon. Do you think we are making progress on having Machine Learning kind of programs tell us how they are making real decisions and details that are useful . Theres a lot of interestst n that. Right now they may change but there is a tension that are efficient in those that produce the results as i guess you know so the best techniques for a lot of the problems does this look like another asteroid that ive seen before, keep learning the best of that l and its far as u could possibly imagine. People are making little progress to make that better but theres a tradeoff now you get ritter results and interpretation. I havent seen any great solution to it so far i dont think that it is insolvable in principle but here at the moment with a ratio between how the systems work and how we understand this extreme. We will have cases where somebody is going to die if somebody is going to have to tell the parent of a child is parameter number 317 with a negative number and its going to be completely meaning less but that is sort of where we are right now. We cant afford to have any misdiagnosis. Can you use this stuff for medical diagnosist the answer is yes but it relates to the last which is how important is the misdiagnosis into the more it is we can rely on the technique. They have radiology in particular and they are pretty good atio pattern recognition. They can be as good as the radiologist southeast and careful laboratory conditions. Nobody really has as far as i know were the last i checked a working realworld system that has demonstrations i could recognize in this particular pattern but in principle it is an