Amy is fair but digs deep to the polls and other election related data. And with those Echelon Insights of the next generation of those analytics and as a pioneer getting the start and the recent paper of the 2019 and then to adapt to demographic change. Because of the intersection you should sign up for it to provide unique insights. And the visiting fellow at aei and a lecture politics from real clear politics has an nba just finished a masters in statistics and now for his phd in Political Science. Sean was a coauthor of the publishing fee non introduced in 1971 to talk about individual entries and idiosyncrasies. Is not surprising that they can solve the almanac because the portrait it provides our rich detail and respectful. After Michael Speaks each will speak for eight minutes we want to make sure we have time for all of your questions at this point also to think for all the help to put this together. Just a few weeks ago writing a column on one of the ends most successful Political Parties speculating and on our shores with a death now for the Republican Party with a new book and during the 2016 election and what i call the debt literature is not onesided. Without the devise of the democrat so what seems to be a growth industry on both sides of the atlantic with a substantial volume of the two Political Parties. With a deep historical knowledge and perspective and actually step foot in all congressional districts with all angles of the poster and then to design to explain in the country. So now have a detail of historical contemporary politics and to have a spirited discussion. The floor is yours. Thank you for your kind words for those that have come forward three of the smartest people of the next generation were willing to discuss my book. And for a long period of time with the almanac of american politics with november 1971 before the impeachment that was a long time ago so to go back to my political memory going up in detroit and then the election of 1954. As it should know. And this was between the congressmen of the 17th district and of the democratic nominee and that she campaigned on a trailer. And this was the beginning of democratic majority of the house of representatives and the key thing. And this was a long time ago. And then to through a number of predictions and that fascinates me so the Democratic Party founded in 1832 and to sustain the veto of the charter of the United States as the Oldest Political Party in the world founded in 1854 with the kansas nebraska act and those over a decade in several years over achieving those policy goals. And the third oldest party to which they made reference and by the conservative party and to be on their way out and then to have another general election and so to achieve their early goals that are still operating at a time when america has grown of a nation of 20 million people. We dont have very many institutions. So i wanted to make the point to argue that is true for fundamental reasons. There are some structural factors that the politicals favors a twoparty system in the Electoral College and a singlemember district. With congressional and legislative elections but there is something fundamentally at stake at the lead jevity and persistence of these two parties. And then to adapt to those emerging issues and new constituencies. And the democrats started off as the freetrade republican was for the tariff. By the 19 forties they switch positions now trump is president they could shift their position once again. And in many ways limited government they attempted to favor local options with segregation in the south the Republican Party was more of the federal government so the parties have changed and adapted in the central argument is it is persistent of basic character and dna of each of those parties of 165 years which accounts for their longevity and resilience. Also to be concentrated around the core constituents. Even though they are never a majority. It has changed over time. But it contains from the yankee protestant to white married christians today but that is based on the core constituency. The Democratic Party is a coalition of different groups of people is not typical americans but when united make up a majority. Andrew Jacksons Party was a coalition of southern whites and immigrants. A good combination to keep separate for car democrats was a candidate for president but just for votes out of 2000 was from the kkk in a fight they are. One they are. Those who are the most loyal and those gentry liberals. And then to impeach donald trump and with those that perform samesex marriage and then to disagree there between these two groups. And these two enduring characters and that has always been diverse. And then to be a diverse country. The british colonies and when they created a constitution. And with the freedom of religion but it would not be a federal government establishment. While virginia i got rid of the religious establishment. And a religiously diverse country to provide a framework and then to concentrate on the core constituency of selected out groups given the large majority of voters in a diverse country and economically religious and racially and so forth. And then to be congenial to them and with the persistence of the twoparty system. This is part of the United States. And the two Political Parties to a score you need each other. And those are both the score you did. And with these callin shows i have been hearing about that. And with ross perot 1982 and then trying to become a third party and celebrity as a business person to create a third party movement. And then seem to be competitive with clinton and george h. W. Bush with the general election polling. And then to be president and then to be independent and then for that to emerge. About what amounts to a test case. I suspect nobody in this room remembers the election of 1912. I see jed williams is laughing. But in 1912 when articulate america talks about the appeal of progressive ideas. And Theodore Roosevelt who had the highest percentage of popular vote of any president. Sense the rivalry. And those with Proven Ability. To be highly confident and a wise candidate that they ran in non southern congressional districts in 1912 and 18 for one 40 election i look like the third party was emerging to be competitive. But then it doesnt exist anymore by 1916 and 1918 it is basically gone except for thirdparty movements with wisconsin and minnesota. Looking back at the republican who is the easy in the 1920 well short of the lifespan of our current president ial candidates. [laughter] so january 1918. So to write his fifth cousin is considered somewhat inferior so thats a pretty good test case and it doesnt work also both parties have shown their resilience after devastating defeats those that grew up reading american political history. And then end the Great Depression of 1932. And then to have smashing victories 1932, 34, 36. And of course people were predicting the demise. And astorias told vividly. And those who are terrific writers and then could come back to show resilience and with that contention with the shaping of america other republicans in the 19 forties with those domestic issues the polling shows that would be a likely outcome instead of control of that election was Proven Ability from franklin roosevelt. The republicans were competitive. And the democratics devastating defeat is less wellknown. And they dont want to talk about the democrats in 1920 after Woodrow Wilson administration. As those proved to be popular after he had a stroke and was unavailable to anybody but mrs. Wilson and his doctors over a period of months and months. He didnt have his twitter feed either. You had americans involved and in 1818. A huge recession and influenza epidemic and then would have resulted in about 3 Million Deaths of the United States. This was devastating and with 34 percent of the population four years later it was 27 percent. The democrats held god in the south but not even all states in the 19 twenties. That yet they did make some progress. Even though people predicted they may not last as a party to try to unite a Coalition Party which is always difficult. They had some assistance from the Great Depression in 1932 but the evidence is absent the Great Depression democrats would remain competitive to figure out how to build the politics and the various candidates. Thirty years ago beginning of the 90s we were told they had a lock on the presidency and had majorities in the house of representatives held from 40 years and then you get a couple come along and they are broken and the democrats have one more residential domination of the house i and looking domination f the presidency so weve got a lot of discord and negative feelings. I think however walking past some of the controversies of the day that history tells us we are going to continue to have the democratic and republican parties around for a long time to adjust to new issues and personalities. Its the political marketplace like the economic marketplace its not without its market failures some would say that it has many more but its one that has continued to work overtime. So i would just recalling conclusion that if you go back there was a committee that saidt the party system isnt very rational we have all of these liberal republicans and conservative democrats would it be more to have a conservative party that wants to respect the liberals that they genuinely believed it and in fact ive got chapters in this book about the disappearance of the conservative democrat. Well, today their prayers have been answered in the political scientists think its just terrible, so theres some way you cant just go pleasing academics and theres other things in the book that i will leave to my colleagues further commentary. Thanks for your attention. [applause] that was a wonderful introduction to the book. We will go in alphabetical order starting with your thoughts and comments. I first want to thank you for writing this book. It brought me back to the country. Over the years you brought to life this patchwork of democracy that shaped the results in the 19th and 20th century democracy including the regional diversity, religious, ethnic racial diversity as well being obviously something certainly the elections decided which country in europe people were born in and now that looks different but the fundamental principle part of this i do fear a little bit that we are losing a little pathetic texture in the electorate and it seems we are headed to what seems like this National Political culture into urban versus rural to the parties where there is very little complexity and texture some still within the Democratic Party is probably a little bit less texture within each Party Coalition than we had in the past i hope there will be something in the state to prove that wrong. I want to talk a little bit about this era and this idea that we seem to be stuck in somewhat of a deadlock we seem to have this pattern that despite the positions that reasserted itself a tears of democratic control particularly mostly having control of the house the gingrich revolution with the democrats having mostly won the popular vote in the presidency but not consistently controlled the white house in that time. Your book really demonstrates all the guardrails that used to exist and all of the from the civilrights realignment that occurred with conservatives in the south end of th south and td of switching sides with things such as the demise of the seniority rules which kept rising aspiring politicians in the south almost uniformly democratic who could go into these seats the day would hold and with a brokered political conventions all of these were things that were finally mostly dismantled that didnt work their way out of the system until the 1990s when the advantage for the market hypothesis where all of the ideological friction that happened within the parties has gone away and the partisanship now predicts the views on policies more than it ever did in 2012 and 93 of republicans voted for romney and the democrats voted for obama in terms of a partisan voting for the president ial nominees in the social clubs they get characteristics and pure ideological vehicles had been removed. We spend a lot of time bemoaning the fact and the decline of civility and the polarized nature of the politics since thats 94 election result they broke the democratic control and ever since then, what did we have . We had the rebirth of the partisan media which wasnt something new but look what they were saying about the 1800 thing like they said in the 2016 i can tell you that ended in terms of the vitriol but somewhat muted by the growth of broadcast media with the rise of the Free Television network into the voice of god networ network anct standardized Media Coverage across the country but still heavily mediated where its hard for not the same partisan media of today but now that breaks down and we have the rebirth of the media thanks to the internet and cable news so im somewhat pessimistic than the party in terms of getting the incentives are very much that republican members of congress and to a large degree Democratic Candidates incentivized regardless of what they personally want and believe in this patchwork of different religions and ethnicities and rivalries they turned out to be more democratic while the local area boats were republican that isnt too different than what it is today but each of the regions in the country kind of have the same structure and you have states as a result of the state level with a mix of the city and country we are pretty competitive in the south in 1960 with a massive democratic of people of the candidacy and the fact they are voting for the president ial nominee to hold the office of the president and even so in back of people. Fast forward when i worked on the george w. Bush campaign we considered them competitive and now it is no more than ten because to use the metaphor where you have throughout little belmont and fish towns scattered throughout the regions in the country and here we seem to have one big belmont and a country polarized and divided by culture we have the coast and throughout the northeast and west coast in the entire state dominated by the corners that make it difficult for any level to compete where they are wasted in the Electoral College and it does no good from the Electoral College standpoint and he hoped california by 21. As a result of much of the rest of the country the majority of the states in states with a majority of the Electoral College but actually a moving in the opposite direction in this new political alignment that created potential for the disconnecthe potential for thedr vote and Electoral College but outsourcing is national in character. The economic and educational sourcing that we have seen and moving forward on the democratic strategy until maybe particularly the urban areas having moved so far and having to be reinforced you have states like texas potentially at least discuss tends we thought that would be the case and its based on the shift places like dallas and atlanta was senseless reachable variation you can look at the National Statistic and theres less distinctiveness you have in the county level two thirds could be explained by the government statistics and physics about education and maybe a hell of democratic they had voted in the past. The very few local factors makes the exception maybe many revolts against donald trump and 20 in utah. But overall its very much explained by the education and the level of the individual partisan issue positions becoming more and more correlated over time, economic perceptions since the early administrations have been guided by partisanship even though it is unclear what the costs would be if he had no role or part of it with the exception of 9 11 such the end of the trend line and the impeachment hasnt budged by a single percentage point. This was actually the conclusion that party now equals ideology. Somebody with a background in business might say to change the definition of the ideology and ticket basically your partisans on board with that so we solve a conservatives could be used to mean more about National Defense and free markets and family values and america first. It means controlling immigration and stop the political correctness. But you see essentially everything falling in line with and potentially the Movement Towards controlling the definition rather than engineering the shift based on what we used to see in the past. They named the responsible party. You can ask yourself how responsible these parties are behaving and that tells you a little bit about the Political Science literature that ive been reading over the past year. Theres a few things in life i genuinely find terrifying when i was a small child i walked into a wasp nest and singing clowns which i dont have to explain but then to respond, im not a stranger to responding but those that have forgotten more than ive ever known if thats kind of the task today. Its also tough because this book is right. Part of the reason there is this cottage industry. Especially on the Progressive Side there is a commitment to this idea of progress and the Promised Land ideologically we are getting too around the corner and it kind of fits into that ideological standpoint that we are bad at predicting what the directions are going to be because they are so a