Can everyone hear me . Id like to go ahead and get started. Good morning and thank you all for coming. My name is george bebe, im the vicepresident and director of studies here at the center of the National Interest. I want to welcome you and thank you all for coming to this Conference Today on north korea. As we think about what might be coming down the road on the Korean Peninsula and the broader region, its very easy, i think, to succumb to the temptation to be pessimistic. In fact, as we sit here in washington today, it seems like theres all kinds of reasons to be pessimistic. We seem to be facing on the home front a variety of challenges. Were in the midst of a wrenching president ial impeachment process. The broader country seems to have some deep cleavages societally. We have a big problem with mutual distrust in the country. When we look abroad, internationally, the headlines were reading this morning suggest we might be on the brink of a very dangerous war with iran. We last week read about the development of Hypersonic Weapons in russia and coupled with the demise of arms control and the return of great power competition, it looks like the world is getting ever more dangerous. Even American Relations with some of our longstanding allies seem to be strained to the breaking point. And i need hardly tell you all, experts on korea, that the news out of the peninsula is hardly encouraging these days. But if theres one lesson that i think we can take from the past several decades, its that wise leaders and creative experts can manage and reduce the dangers that were facing internationally. Here in the United States we overcame the domestic vitriol and violence that we faced in the 1960s during the vietnam era. We managed to avoid catastrophe with the soviet union and end the cold war peacefully. We helped germany to pivot from being a potential Nuclear Battle ground into a united regional leader. We transformed our relations with vietnam, fundamentally. None of these problems at the time seemed any less daunting than the challenges we seem to face today in the world. So even though its tempting to stand aghast at the dangers that were facing, to marvel at the problems that confront us, we need to remind ourselves that its not our job to contemplate the problem just for the sake of being scared. Our challenge as experts is to think creatively about these problems and understand about the opportunities that are hidden amidst of the dangers that appear so obvious and to use other expertise, our understanding of these problems to identify and take advantage of opportunities that are there, even if theyre not evident on the surface. So i look forward to hearing your ideas today about these challenges. I want to thank harry, our senior director, for korean studies, for putting together such an impressive agenda today for discussion, and for gathering such an Impressive Group of experts today. I look forward to hearing your ideas and i want to introduce harry, who will talk more about the specifics of todays events. Harry, thank you. Good morning, everyone. [applause] thank you all for coming. Welcome back to d. C. If youre just coming back. I know everybody, this is the type of year where everybody takes extended break and come back and we have congress in session today so thank you for spending your morning and maybe your afternoon with us. Im going to keep my comments very brief. Im just getting over bronchitis. I promise im not contagious, but i do after speaking for about five minutes i lose my voice and i want to give these guys a great panel and moderate that. Im going to keep it very brief and very short. So welcome to all of you, welcome to all of those watching us now on cspan2 for our event, north korea in 2020, fiery and fury or path towards peace. Very important, this is response sorted by the Korea Foundation thanks to a generous grant by them and wish to thank them for their support and efforts in this area and somebody very great would work with and we appreciate that partnership. What we want to do today, i think, is very straight forward. Over the course of, i think, three different panels, a lot of different speakers, different perspectives, different ideas to get a sense where things are going to go with north korea in 2020. Its an open question where this is going to go. The International Arena moves forward with events outside of the Korean Peninsula, george indicated we have questions in the death of general soleimani. Those are factors that are going to be an issue with the peninsula. Talking about where things stand on the peninsula right now and i think that we can move forward into dr. Moons keynote address. At the moment we have a north korea that continues to build material, may have enough material from 35 to 36 nuclear warheads, and thats up for dispute. And we dont have a clear understanding where the Trump Administration wants to go in the next couple of weeks and months, as many of you obviously know, were under a situation where the president has been impeached of the theres going to be a trial in the senate. Its very hard to understand where trumps Foreign Policy is going to go because of this. Will it stay stagnant for the next month or two months . Tough to say. On the other hand we have to factor what will kim jongun do . Will he for the next six, eight, nine months hold back on missile testing, Nuclear Testing and try to gauge will trump be reelected . I dont know, these we have to factor in and other events in south korea, elections coming up. Does this limit president moons ability to try and engage more with north korea, does he pivot to more domestic issues with the south korean economy looking to grow more in the coming year. I think these are all open questions. With that let me just get to sort of the procedural things that are going to happen today. All of you are pretty much think tank experts and im going to lay these things out. Obviously with the amount of cameras in the room today we are on the record. Keep that in mind. As you can see by the conference itinerary, dr. Moon is going to open up everything and im going to introduce him in a second and we are going into our panels. We have three panelists and each panelist, starting off with jessica and lee, and a few minutes and then the classic q a. One thing i ask during live q a. While we may know each other, for cspan, your outlet, news outlet or whatever. We will have coffee breaks, a one hour lunch break and then move into the afternoon session. With that im going to introduce dr. Moon. Le of you know him and know him quite well. Over the last year, 18 months ive gotten a chance to know him quite well and great to call him my friend. And hes one of the architects of the sunshine policy and progressive and now in the golf of moon jaein, and hes a special advisor to moon jaein and hes speaking under his personal capacity or other capacity, im sure hell clarify that. Its great to have you here, dr. Moon, and we look forward to your remarks. Thank you. [applaus [applause] thank you, harry. I speak for the for myself, not for the government. Let me clarify on that one, too. And harry, you made the topic of my talk as president moon jaeins Peace Initiative and challenges and opportunities and try to sum up his policy and challenges his government is facing in less than 20 minutes, okay, and then maybe we can have open discussions. President moon was inaugurated on may 9th, 2017 first year, 2017 was nightmarish year. It was worst for him, but in 2018 he opened a new horizon of peace by holding three summit talks with chairman kim jongun and then 2019, hanoi, u. S. Talk. Now hes facing major stalemate, therefore its ups and downs. If you look at the korean history, it was a history of lower coast. One year good, the other bad, and were having constant living under the uncertainty. But in going through the ups and downs, president moon jaein made it very clear, his goal to make Nuclear Weapons peaceful and Prosecutor PressKorean Peninsula. The first principle is no war under korean no war at any cost. The peace has been the fundamental base of his property line. Its obvious because hes a refugee from north korea during the north korean war therefore, he himself witnessed the tragedy of war. He wanted to avoid war for whatever means. Second, no nukes. He wanted nuclear weaponfree Korean Peninsula. Nuclear energy, but protests, transfer, testing of Nuclear Weapons. He speak to 1991 joint declaration under denuclearization of Korean Peninsula. We have been abiding by that declarati declaration, north korea has not been abiding by that declaration, therefore, no nuke is his second principle. Third principle is that the no regime change in north korea. And he wanted to be constant with north korea. He wanted to have new ways of communicating with north korea. Therefore, i will say that no regime change. He made it very clear, that point when he give a speech at when the institute in berlin on july 6th, 2017. He still abides by that principle. Finally, he wanted to come in prosperity under Korean Peninsula. He believes that the future of south korean economy depends on the north korean economy. North korea depends on south korea, too. And he laid out four strategies, first is peacekeeping. Here peacekeeping means surpassing through military deterrents and strengthening. This idea of peacekeeping really arose out of the crisis in 2017. And there was a past dependence, the conservative government, but he strongly believed that one way of preventing war is having Strong Defense capability. And he believes in the utility of alliance with the United States. Second strategy is called the peace making strategy. He wanted to reduce tension with north korea. He wanted to build cons stance with north korea and end of war and end of korean war declaration and he wanted to transform armistice agreement into a Peace Agreement or treaty and he wanted to sustain viable peace regime into Korean Peninsula. In fact, that has been one of the most important strategies of the moon jaein government. Third, hes interested in peace building. Peace building refers to the elimination of structural war under Korean Peninsula. He strongly believes that the peace economy can lead to Peace Agreement. And lead to cooperation, okay, if they agree to come up with some kind of arrangement through which people and services can move freely across dmz, and if north and south korea can pursue common prosperity, president strongly believes that there wont be any war under Korean Peninsula. In a sense, its like an a Permanent Peace theory, particularly article one of the Permanent Peace theory, and trading states not fighting each other. And finally, he emphasized pro activity diplomacy. Career has been sandwiched between china and the u. S. , between dprk and the United States. He wants to pursue more proactive diplomacy. We want to be a mediator, facilitator, arbitrator or pacesetter of the Korean Peninsula destiny. Therefore, he doesnt want to be a passive to changing the changing environment. Okay. He did, he did it in 2018 when there was a complete pass between United States and pyong yang. And he was a mediator between washington and pyong yang. And this is the Peace Initiative. And what are the challenges and opportunities . You clearly saw and witnessed the new horizon peace, particularly on april 27th last year. I was there and i saw the great possibility of peace in the Korean Peninsula. North and south korea adopted military agreement on september 19th in pyong yang. There was article one of a pyong yang. Last year chairman kim jongun showed up on west coast and ordered test exercise of missiles. There was perhaps the only violation of the military agreement adopted in 2019 2018. And in a sense there has been progress, but overall, the government is facing several dilemmas and challenges. First is the dilemma of peacekeeping. As a way of enhanced peacekeeping capability, he was strengthening the capability and then our government has be been from the United States, we have secured the global hope, unmanned drone surveillance and device and we have been strengthening and well be spending almost 50 trillion. Slightly larger than the defense spending of japan in this year. North korea is very angry about it. North korea position is we agreed to build confidence and north korea saying that south korea not seek military buildup. But because of what happened in 2017 and also the decisions made by the previous government, he had to follow in this defense capability strengthening in the line. Therefore, the idea of peacekeeping is extremely selfdefensive, but north korea does not put in the way. North korea thinks its offensive which is where with the United States. Therefore peacekeeping has been sort of back firing, okay . Peace making, president moon proposed the approach, the nuclearization and peace making, but were not making any progress in denuclearization. The peacemakes has become stalled. Okay. Of course, were maintaining september 2019 military agreement to some extent, however, we are not able to adopt end of war declaration. They have no discussion about the transformation of agreement into some sort of peace treaty among major stakeholders, okay . We talked about peace regime, but we havent really touched peace regime. There fore, peace making an undergoing major difficulty. Peace building, in order to have peace building, weve got to have the peace economy working, in order to make the peace economy working, then theyve got to become with north korea, but International Sanctions prevent south korea from engaging with north korea. For example, president moon strongly desire to have connection, reconnected between the north and south and even had in a groundbreaking ceremony in january last year, but Nothing Happened afterwards. Okay. And he wanted to reopen complex and a project, again, because International Sanction regime, he couldnt do anything. North korea argued that south korea hasnt delivered anything to north korea. Therefore, hes having a hard time in pushing for the idea of peace building through peace economy. Diplomacy, in fact, contrary to what conservatives in south have been criticizing, we have been betting on the United States 100 . Since november of 2018, we have 100 coordinating with the United States. We have shown 100 transparency to the u. S. With regard to interkorean economy and cooperation. As a result of that, interkorean relations have become completely and now we have a dilemma what should we do if the United States cannot make a breakthrough in its talk with north korea . I do not know what action the president will take, but sentiment in south south korea, if the United States fails to come up with a settlement with north korea, then supporters are raising voice, south korea should take independent action, okay . I will say that we are now going through very critical period, okay . South korea is a democracy and moon jaein needs from his supporters. If he cannot deliver to his supporters then he faces a dilemma. And right now but even that hell be giving a speech, i think today or today, washington time, and i will is a that he will emphasize we will continue to rely on the United States in solving north Korea Nuclear problem, but i dont know to what extent he can really go along that line. In conclusion, i will say that his Korean PeninsulaPeace Initiative has been bold, ambitious and timing, hes encountering almost challenges, hes facing numerous i am impediments. Can he overcome that . I do not know. What extent he can communicate with the United States and come up with a common strategy to solve the problem, okay . But i really hope that north korea will come back to the negotiation table. Having heard north korea grievances sufficiently and now its time for north korea to come back to the negotiation table and try to find some kind of a negotiated settlement. The United States needs to be more flexible and realistic, okay. You cannot really pursue the strategy of denuclearize first and well reward you. That wont work, okay . Thats why north korea has responded by saying that you permanently, okay, and irreversibly on the policy and then come back to the negotiation table. But an actual oppression approach to north korea. We might consider adopting Nuclear Arms Control, therefore, need to think about signing a peace treaty with north korea. U. S. Forces reduction in return for north koreas denuclearization. And also push for cooperative destruction fund, american fud or International Fund so that we can send a very clear signal to north korea that we are really seriously interested in denuclearization of north korea with set of incentives and also we have to think about snap back sanction relief. Also if we propose some k