D. C. The american israel public first committee, this portion includes a panel on upcoming elections. This is two hours and 40 minutes. The 2020 election controlled the house, senate and presidency of the United States. Democrats battle over the nominee, who will they choose and whats at stake for the u. S. Israel relationship. This is impact 2020. Please welcome host of aipac National Director rob. Good morning aipac and welcome to impact 2020. Tomorrow voters and 14 states, American Samoa and american broad will head to the pool for super tuesday among those holding their primaries on tuesday are two of the nations biggest prizes. California and texas. [cheering] approximately a third of all delegates are up for grabs tomorrow. This morning we have an opportunity to hear from some of americas most wellknown and respected political authorities, we will help us make sense of a rapidly changing political environment. Please welcome attorney political commentator and recovery politician. [applause] no stranger to the aipac stage, the clinton pinkin campaign str. One of the republican parties, Brad Todd Carmack and last but certainly not least threetime republican president ial Campaign Communication director alice stewart. Thank you all for joining us. Before we jump in it worth reminding everybody they do not rate or endorse candidates we do however, encourage our members and all of you to find out where the candidates stand on the u. S. Real relationship to be politically active and to get out and vote. The views expressed this morning are those of our panelists and theirs alone, they do not represent the views of aipac. Without qualify her out of the way, lets get started. To keep us on track and on time, we have nine minutes on the timer in that topic is a fight for the democratic president ial nomination. This past saturday joe biden scored a big win in your home state of South Carolina. What is your assessment and what will happen tomorrow. Thank god for South Carolina. [laughter] first of all. [applause] thank you Anderson Cooper for that question. I think South Carolina is going to be a springboard for joe biden and i caution people, you cannot determine who the democratic nominee is so black people vote to britis extremelyy i we say my mom and her friends determine who the nominee will be. South carolina is a diverse state and we got to the state, him in the super tuesday were expected to do wel do well virg, north carolina, texas, arkansas, alabama. And we will see what happens from there. This race will go to milwaukee for sure. Tomorrow Michael Bloomberg will be on the ballot for the first time after spending close to half a billion dollars on advertising, how will Michael Bloomberg do and what your assessment . Thank you for having me back, i love aipac and moist glad to be here. Since i was in college, when youre an old part like me i want to see your [bleep] back here like me. Bloomberg, i think you got is something terrific. I think his debate, not so much. I think now with the emergence of joe biden a candidate that can put together a diverse coalition. We knew bernie could, he put a lot of liberals and hispanics. Ive worked for candidates who won the caucuses and primaries, but the diversity from the white to the transition, i care a lot. We have to see, not only can he get votes can he put together a diverse coalition. He did in new york, the most diversity in america. Can he do that in the democratic primary . I think Vice President biden is in the driver seat. What i want to see most important we in my home state of texas, bernie will win california. He will dominate, he is a great organization. Hes been leading in the polls in texas. He could slingshot around bernie given the momentum he picked up from saturday night. Saturday night speech, if you did not see him, i commend you. He is a guy a lot of people look forward for tactical reasons. Saturday night he gave democrats to follow love with him. In democrats need that, its powerful and if you believe we need healing in unity and if you believe weve had enough of what mr. Trump gives us, as the catholic church, enough of that joke is doing alternative. Let me ask you a quick followup. Pete buttigieg dropped out of the race, what impact will that happen . Where do folks go . E1 iowa and was out before super tuesday. Its extraordinary. I think some of the early votes are locked in, 2 Million People have already voted, 700,000 in texas. I think that will move the momentum even more because i think a lot of those were looking for healing moderation, unity and if you want reform but you dont want revolution then you are for pete and those people tend to go more for joe. So you wrote a great book and that you describe different architects of voters that voted for donald trump in 2016 any focus in particular on five swing states in the midwest, do you see the similarities between what donald trump did in any of the candidates running on the democratic side . My coauthor interviewed people all over, one thing that attracted a lot of donald Trump Supporters in the primary and the republican side that he did not like the Republican Party very much, that made republicans willing to nominate him. I think you see that was Bernie Sanders, the democratic primary voters dont see much. Its not so much they should be ashamed of we all have a smart phone and it makes a smart enough to pick her own. I think all the biden supporters who are trying to usher in a Bernie Movement might want to check the role because trying to stop bernie might enable him. Is Bernie Sanders the presumptive nomadi nominee . He is not the presumptive nominee. I see this going all the way to milwaukee. Saying that Bernie Sanders or anyone is a presumptive nominee, if i were going to bake a cake and i only hold the exit but out of the fridge. We still have a long way to go, i think the democratic primary has an recalibration over the past few days certainly would joe biden doing so well in Pete Buttigieg getting out. Where will Pete Buttigieg his people go, people will go based on the ideology and the more moderate will go towards joe biden preview have to keep in mind that Pete Buttigieg has a strong younger audience and voters to support him, those may tend to go to Elizabeth Warren based on the Younger Generation and may not be on board with joe biden. I think there is still so much in the year end about to be considered. I just got back at midnight from arkansas having worked there all we can. People their support joe biden for a lot of reasons, its a more moderate with a yellow dog democrat state as it used to be and hes working his relationship and the legacy and certainly the relationships that they have with the clintons in arkansas. They gravitate toward. Bernie sanders worried a lot of people, speaking with my democratic friends, we cannot let this happen and what i do agree is what we heard Pete Buttigieg say in one of the debates, and the midterms, a lot of people, certainly the aoc in the very far left candidates were running along with bernie because he was giving them support. Now they are running away because they realize hes a viable candidate in the danger of that. We see more democrats who thought the bernie train was fine because he galvanized the voters but they realize the danger if he were to become the nominee. We have a little bit of time left. What do you think after super tuesday, do you think there will be more candidates leading the contest . I hope so. There should be two candidates that need to find Something Else to do. To be completely honest i tell people, i saw this yesterday on cnn. It is a twoperson race. Its a joe biden, Bernie Sanders race and two people and three egos are in the race. We just have to figure out what Elizabeth Warren will do i dont know single state she wins and i think she gets beat by Bernie Sanders in Amy Klobuchar will win on super tuesday but she performed worse than Pete Buttigieg voters which is really bad. [laughter] and Michael Bloomberg is a half a billion dollars boiler. He does not want a single state on super tuesday. He can give me the money. One thing on the bloomberg, speaking with people, the ads are great because you can get a message with no pushback. Now he is getting pushback. We are hearing how is having difficulty with minority voters buddies having difficulty communicating with rural voters. If you cant communicate your in serious trouble. Its time to move on to the next topic. Our next topic is a general election. I think you would all agree that President Trump strategy has been built around solidifying his Political Base rather than appealing to independence or suburban swing voters. Can the president when were the only base strategy. He can depending on who is going against. Lets say Bernie Sanders, i dont expect it to be. I do think a lot of people will shy away from a candidate like that. I think joe biden would be more valuable challenger but you have to keep this in mind, when this president goes around and has the rallies and when you dont see them on the news networks, speaking with people that go to these things, theres a lot of people that will go to a trump rally and they want to see what its like and get caught up in all this. But the campaign is pulling out analytics when people register. Almost 25 of people that go out are democrats or independents. They may just be coming out to kick the tires and see what its all about but the unknown story that is happening is a lot of democrats and independents are going out there and seeing what donald trump is about. If the economy is strong and he continues to peel the people away, percentage by percentage he does have a very good shot. In 2016 we had a phenomenon in that we have the two most unpopular candidates in the history of the United States politics running against each other. I dont think you have that dynamic this time. You may im hopeful. I dont think we will have that. I do think donald trump was able to do something which i dont have the audacity to explain but 53 of white voters for donald trump which is a high number and i think he has a base, 4 Million People who voted in 2012 who stayed home in 2016 and the democrats were through the 4 Million People who did not choose Hillary Clinton or donald trump. They chose the couch. Which is an alternative when youre running for office. Who can get the voters off the couch and into the voting booth, they have a chance. Donald trump was president by 100,000 voters in three states. Wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. It is not a widespread but you need to thread the needle. You mentioned the three key states, michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania, those are three states in the last six president ial elections voted for the president ial nominee. Can the democratic get the nominee states back and what does that have to do to do that . You start with the blue wall but i keep receipts, trump won michigan plus pennsylvania plus wisconsin, 14 million votes, his margin was precisely 77744. Rounded up to 100. Im going to find all of them, im coming to your door. The guy pulled off theres people off there that want to to get it. Of course they can, look at the 2018 midterm, you have the largest turnout since women got the right to vote which i think some of my republican friends regret. The most diverse field democrats have ever put together, more women and more people in the most moderate field democrats ever put out. They wanted michigan and elected a terrific woman governor, they wanted pennsylvania, where we ran with the strategy of high turnout, high diversity, moderate candidates, we picked up 41 seats and not one ran for revolution. No healthcare, no Prescription Drug prices, democrats have a model and a strategy in it when the biggest landslide that they have one since watergate. 44 years. Obviously they are right now, democrats in 2019 fight away, one in kentucky, they one in the wee zana where they hunted us down with dogs. So yes we can, thats amazing to me he should have this teed up but is highly vulnerable. What is the battleground state and can the present hold on to the important industrial upper states. Paul would be right if there was a moderate left. Were not talking about the Democratic Party in 2008. Thats why donald trump has a good chance to carry the great lakes state again and hold on to florida. Because these running against the Democratic Party in 2020 and not the Democratic Party 15 years ago. He is not running against steve which is what the mayor would be to the suburban democrats who won. He has to carry one group of voters, gary johnson voters, if he carried his voters he would win with a cushion and all the states he needs to win. Theres a lot of suburban voters that have a question about his calls. Lets moved on to our next topic. I know its a topic that a lot of people in this room care deeply about which is the u. S. Israel relationship. Theres a lot of people in this room, many of them democrats who are concerned about where Bernie Sanders stands on the issue of the u. S. Israel relationship and the policy of israel. How concerned should they be . I wish senator sanders was here, i think theyll audit come here and its a mistake not to come here. The motion that aipac is monolithic. That black folk, no, people are complicated and they burst and so is organization. I think senator sanders audit, make his case. More importantly he needs to go back to israel. They have a really good Child Literacy Program in israel. In the 1970s Hillary Clinton copied it. She brought that to arkansas in the 70s. The is really Child Literacy Program, they dont put people in jail, there were free press, strong environmental laws, all the things we believe in as progressive democrats, i have found in israel, in fact i was there in 2015 and is really socialized medicine save my life, is saved my life, i think bernie would love that. [applause] as a progressive, it has its problems, i dont think youve noticed United States, we have ours. But it does not make me hate america. It makes me want to make sure that relationship feels caught. Its kind of as if somebody came to the United States in the 1960s and was still talking about what the United States was like in the 1960s when were in 2020. But four years ago, you organized a group of africanamerican leaders to send a letter to the Democratic Platform Committee urging them to pass a proisrael platform. [applause] how optimistic were you that the party will pass a platform this year . Very optimistic im pretty sure it will happen, theres a really weird gap between israel and the Democratic Party in immunoassay that does not exist. It is fascinating to watch how people want to drive wedges between certain groups in the country. We talk about Bernie Sanders and he actually lost the democratic primary in 2016 by 4 million votes. All this is not a losing threat, it was a plurality, he will not have the majority, he might 30 his way to the nomination, but that still a long way to go on back on the committee this year. Trying to speak a very proisrael platform, i have nothing that shows me otherwise. Everything in the Democratic Party is a fight, as what i say im not part of an organized party, im a democrat. Well see what happens but im sure we will stay on track. We will take great solace and look for your leadership on the committee. [applause] doing pis anticipate it beina general election. Yes it biggest of the trump sanders. When you have two polar opposites on the very important issue, your President Trump who has been a supporter of israel, he is moving the embassy to jerusalem recognizing jerusalem as the capital. Certainly what he has done with recognizing sovereignty and most important the one of the first things he did was the iran nuclear deal. With the tremendous signs of support for pro is really movements and in your Bernie Sanders who call this movement they get in critical of opposition and refuses to come to the table and explain the position. If those other options, it will be an issue and it should be. At the same time joe biden does not get a pass, he does not have a tremendous record when it comes to this issue. Either way we do have an example of President Trump and not just talking about his support for following through. I want to give you a chance to answer the question. Theres never been a president history of the United States of america that is stronger than President Donald Trump. Not once, not