Topic was Nuclear Weapons and we all read it was a big deal at the time. And to Nuclear Weapons from truman to trump and then went to Overland College and watergate changed him and then went on to graduate school at mit with nuclear strategy. And the policy advisor for the house of representatives on the left and wrote he wrote his widely acclaimed book wizards of armageddon. Listed with the boston globe for 20 years and by the end of 24 2002 we started to write stories he wrote for previous books and im very excited to have fred kaplan in his book the bomb please join me to welcome him. [applause] the wizards of armageddon the end of Nuclear Deterrence i did they get right anymore about nuclear war the cold war was over and nobody thought much about Nuclear Weapons until a couple years ago. And so might not have thought of it at all. But on august 8th the President Trump said that if north korea keeps making threatening noises and launching the sole test like it has never seen before. And then the capabilities women everybody start to get nervous. And it struck me now is a time to go back and look at the history with as much time that passed with you oshima and the wizards of armageddon it says something about how old i am. But if you look back into the archives it is interesting because and nothing was declassified and what they thought was set about nuclear war. Even up to reagan and carter. And then i interviewed a lot of people. And with that looming force above us all and of nuclear war it is how various president s with those euphemisms are seriously contemplated and how they have dealt with these issues. And to have a brief history of that tonight. How did this start . Maybe towards the end of world war ii commander of the 21st Bomber Command at the time firebombing every city in japan. And the head of the Army Air Force spring of 1945. That the japanese were fighting. Then they go back to the staff and calculations and then there was the firebomb. It to say the war will be over by september 1st because that is when we will have bombed every square mile of japan. So that was the philosophy to bomb everything. Now to adam bombs were dropped on japan. And with the Strategic Air command. And then then with this philosophy to the new and much more bomb. And by the end of the fifties the single integrated Operational Plan so this was the war plans and then to attack west germany even if they didnt use Nuclear Weapons, but even if they just crossed with a few truth, the United States word unleash the entire arsenal against every target and the soviet union and china. Even if there was no involvement in the war. And to kill 285 million people. This was approved by president eisenhower and eisenhower was a cheapskate it was believed they might make incursions all over the place and what you called massive retaliation. Anywhere the russians go we respond in a manner of our own choosing. With policy and classified documents that any Armed Conflict between the United States would begin with us Nuclear Weapons. Its not like he was a bloodthirsty maniac but eisenhower thought any war with the soviet union would go nuclear and therefore to realize to deter a war from happening in the first place and then to tell the soviets in no Uncertain Terms would you do this for the entire country. And something happened in the early sixties with their own nuclear arsenal. So this became a policy of suicide and to grab west berlin and responded by blowing up the soviet union they could blow up us. So thats when certain strategists so we dont have to go nuclear right away so maybe we could just want weapon at military forces and say if you strike back because they had serious doubts if this was possible they had to bet on it and then go sky high at the outset. President kennedy comes in to office and then to be involved in the crisis in berlin but by the end of the year most of you realize west berlin has been 100 miles inside germany. There is no way that the russians decided to occupy. So the plan again was to unleash everything. And then to discuss this. And so they came up with the russians coming in with the weapons. New with sahm intimidation. And with those economic sanctions and the United Nations pass a resolution to condemn this. Should offer a Nuclear Weapon is a demonstration. But then there were questions like and then to escalate the forces there were people who thought there were only Nuclear Weapons. But with the deterrence and credibility and then to use Nuclear Weapons. And then kennedy decided and then to be clever in the short run. And those that are way ahead of us by the time with kennedy and then to have 200 to 300 missiles. And with the deputy secretary of defense and with the Business Roundtable and this is where they renounce there is no missile gap. And said we are turning out icbm like sausages. So this is to tell khrushchev this is how many weapons we have this is how many you have even launching the first strike to have overwhelming superiority and as a result 12 or 15 time mega Hydrogen Bomb and second to realize and then planning to launch a firstrate. That kennedy new so he put mediumrange missiles into cuba. Like having a couple dozen intercontinental missions from russia. So here is where is the real pivot. There is still a lot of myths there is still a lot of nonsense which essentially is very odd because all 13 days and then order them from the kennedy library. And go eyeball to eyeball and myth on the friday night cruise jeff came up with the deal and promise to invade cuba. Then saturday and then to take those very similar missiles. And that ignore the saturday morning proposal. But the proposal comes in saturday morning and kennedy says it seems like a fair trade. Anyone would take this deal. Everybody around the table not just the generals Bobby KennedyRobert Mcnamara all of them say this will humiliate the turks to destroy our credibility. And then to start launching air attacks on monday two days later. And then three days after that. And looking ahead and then the russians are bound to grab and then start to flow it will not be a good war. Kennedy called seven people and sending bobby on the condition dont ever talk about this ever. And he perpetrated the myth because this was the cold war. This would be appeasement and be in deep trouble. One of the seven people he did not was Vice President lyndon johnson. And then to go back down. And in the post you myths memoir to say it was a tragedy. Because that led to further tragedies. After the cuban missile crisis looking at the defense budget. And with chairman of the joint chiefs with especially on Nuclear Weapons to say i dont know why were spending so much money on Nuclear Weapons. Then that would deter them but as the conversation went on that deterrence failed. And then go after they are missiles. And so to summarize the enduring dilemma of nuclear strategy. That you will blow everything up. It is not foolproof. What you try to do something brought to a conclusion . Kennedy was not comfortable and said we have to and the cold war. And he gave a speech at American University june 1963 its beautiful. Look it up. Calling for the ad war. End of the war. They turned off the jammers from voice of america cruise jeff in braced it the greatest speech since roosevelt and things were started to happen then he was assassinated and then in 1964 really that is where the arms race begins. So over the next 25 years various president s looking at this war plan are horrified and try to institute things for limited options but one things that i discovered which i hadnt done before those with defined statements with a dozen different options that would escalate slowly people in omaha paid no attention to this it was always written into the guidance to the extent feasible or to the extent it does not compromise the military objective but yet it did so this remains the all out plan until the administration of reagan and ending with george h. W. Bush. Reagan turns out to be a more interesting character in a good way and and now weird with anybody recognized. He was Nuclear Abolitionist thats why he was so keen on star wars defense and the shield to shoot down every missile coming this way. He may have been two or three people who believe that the program was about hes doing incredibly provocative thinks his first year and with the nsa then you really think were trying to launch our first strike and america reacts accordingly and he is horrified so thats not what he meant so there are transcripts of meetings that we need to reach out to these people by the time that happens gorbachev is in the soviet union and for the first time in 1985 that first it is very tense so they decide that its just the two of them and their translators. And at one point reagan says if the United States are to be attacked by aliens in the United States would russia contort offense and gorbachev says absolutely i said on reagan that i feel the same way that back in the Conference RoomGeorge Schultz not privy to the conversation rights letter one rights later they were joking with the were good friends and were completely different and a couple years later he gave a speech at the Un General Assembly in this passage colon powell who was a joint chief at the time tried to excises passage twice and reagan kept putting it back in which was if we were attacked by aliens in outer space those conflicts on earth would seem trivial in comparison. But on the other hand there is something to it. May be where you talk about catastrophic things with weapons of mass destruction taking a few from 1 billion miles up so anyway Ronald Reagan was doing this at the subterranean level there was a civilian and the pentagon name frank miller and when dick cheney became secretary of defense he was a very different guy then when he was Vice President. Now coming into this job all the doctrines for limited Nuclear Options and restraint for Nuclear Weapons he doesnt hear any of this so he goes to chene cheneys as i understand whats going on. I have been assigning you to go deep deep to tell the people in omaha you get anything you want to goes deeper than any civilian and discovers extraordinary things, though level of overkill is astonishing for example 700 Nuclear Weapons aimed in a 50mile radius rounding moscow. In the Arctic Circle could be used for three quarters of the year 17 Nuclear Weapons. And anti Ballistic Missile site after the cold war was over never worked 69 Nuclear Weapons and then they discovered something even more profound and disturbing at that point bush was discussing the Nuclear Arms Reduction treaty. If we reduce the number of weapons could you still perform your mission . The senior officer said we dont ask that question and he said i understand what you mean thats not the way we work. We take the weapons that we are given we assign them to the targets so in other words that no points in the actual operational realm of how this was handled that no point had any been asking how many of these do we really need to do what you want to do . To fight a nuclear war . How many do we really need. Nobody was asking that. In fact one reporter there was one commander with the open congressional hearing said i need 10000 and weapons because i have 10000 targets they be thought he wasnt too bright no. Thats how this works. And the overkill. One of these was the tank armies. They destroy the factories were the tanks were built they destroyed the mines to destroy your ability to make dinner in your house your refrigerator your freezer and then the Grocery Store and the farm and then all the railways between all of these even if you think it is rational objective to keep you from making dinner you dont need to do all of this. So frank miller and the staff at the time we had 10000 Nuclear Weapons. Because one of franks sisters want to put 588 it was a whimsical joke but when the cold war was over no need to attack Eastern Europe anymore they are not our enemy. So by the time bush had the strategic arms reduction they said we dont need any more than this and this continued when obama was president there was another review it was very similar and they went back over every single target and they were able to cut it down by another one third even then they did not reduce it by another third because they were involving the new start treaty there was no point to make unilateral cuts later it is negative incentives thats how many Nuclear Weapons we have now if we cut was in third to no harm to National Security but you dont want to do unilateral cuts. So another thing that did come out of this exercise that limited Nuclear Options suddenly became feasible so now we have a plan where there were 20 Nuclear Weapons that before and he asked from the Defense Intelligence agency for the earlymorning radar so how many discrete objects could the radar detect until it all becomes one big blob . And the answer is 200 if we shot 200 missiles but at that time the smallest Nuclear Option wouldnt fall 900 missiles but for one reason this astonished me when i first heard it but no matter what the option was limited option or whatever icbms all bombers had to be involved nobody wanted to be left out added the option. So in some cases the bomber would arrive hours after the missiles we get the people on the other side had to see this as a limited attack. So trump comes into office. So some of the things that are said now about Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Posturing that the pentagon put out talk about the Nuclear Operations and as deterring a wide range threat to deter the country from launching a Nuclear Weapon. This is the subterranean riverdance under our noses. So obama tried to change some of this. So what is new . What is one theme running through my book is that every president before now when they confronted a crisis involve seriously the use of Nuclear Weapons. And advisers have gone through the scenarios that are kind of reasonable in some cases. They have all immerse themselves in the scenario and the consequences very deeply and they have decided the matter what their advisers say that this will end in catastrophe i have to scramble out as fast as possible. This has happened over and over. But whatever else you think about trump hes not known to be a guy who immerses himself to think deeply about it. So my fear and then to get trapped in a dynamic. There is such of hearings but they werent covered very much at the time because the chairman of the ford relations suddenly realize that the president of the United States has the Legal Authority to launch a Nuclear Attack without anybodys protocols but ultimately the decision is his like the Adult Day Care Center and leading on a path to world war iii they were concerned and that was the case and one democratic senator said we have the president who threatens us and not one single republican on the committee challenge the premise. But one of the people of the retired general was now part of Strategic Command because his view is if Congress Wants to change our president can launch a first strike. Thats what you can do with those that didnt want them to do is to create doubts and then to do nothing about it. So to create the government we had now. So there might be a president who had sensing so he gave him the judiciary and with elections every four years nobody has done that from the entire planet and that was a little strange. So the question, i will end here at it is a good question why hasnt there been a nuclear war . Why hasnt anybody use Nuclear Weapons . If you had gone back in time 1947 and said and all this time then people would lock you up and wouldnt believe you it is astonishing and highly unlikely. And that Nuclear Deterrence works. You attack us and we attack you. But number two we have been lucky enough to have shrewd and common sense president said number three there has been a couple of cases to see there is a false reading of coming over the horizon this has got to be a false reading it is happened a few times. So shrewd readers if we have a con