Brought to you today by your television provider. Our moderator today is col. Andy heard, retired air force. Is a special assistant. Integrates University Departments to expand expeditionary opportunities to students. So that you a learn what its like to travel abroad and to lead abroad. He is done a tremendous amount of things here at the university of part of that has to do with him being station here for rotc but also for his folks and helping each one of you become better leaders. Also leading here today as a moderate of this panel. I can spend a lot of time reading about some incredible things that he is done but it will keep it short. As i mentioned, is a retired United States air force, he went to the academy and at the university of north carolina. His military career include three commands, for those of you who will be aviators, 6000 flying hours and combat missions and informal conflicts. Lets welcome the col. [applause]. Peter thank you for attending this writers symposium. This panel of warfare in the 21st century printed future battlegrounds, my name andy heard, you and i are privileged today at this university and the peace corps center of organized this panel to engage with experts of the 21st century conflict. The experts on the panel are global thought leaders. There are intimate with battles both in planning and in direct action. They understand the evolution of conflict. And how that conflict shapes policy. The contemplation of the future influences national powers, planning and decisionmaking through their careers of research, writing and debate. Andy today we are fortunate to join them for 90 minutes of their professional experience. Your experience is to develop you to lead. The newly did business in the community, government or military service, preparing you to lead in the 21st century is central to this universitys mission. This panel, is part of that mission. And these writers have spent years thinking about the evolution of warfare and how 21st century battlegrounds will impact society. From our conversation with him today, you will learn unexpected insights about your future challenges. Some of you may feel very comfortable conversing about cyber, or Artificial Intelligence, robotics, or data. Todays conversation is not just about products you can purchase. And you should already know that your data, your personal data can be a threat. Your dna coming search preferences, your social posts, they can be used for great purposes. But also they can be used to manipulate or threaten you. So todays conversation was about the future that you will live and work in and we are here to explore the future of warfare. So your phone, powerful communication tool. It is also a potential method of tracking and exploiting you. Artificial intelligence, is changing our lives in an impact future jobs and impacts transportation and politics. Robotics, have revolutionized industry already and more. Combined with ai, big data and instant communications robotics is a 21st century change agent perhaps like none other in history. Col. Andy hird ret. you can not be on the sidelines as leaders. Whether you are a schoolteacher or a platoon leader, you must continue to reflect what is expressed today, by this panel. Your job, as leaders is to be open to new ways of thinking. And be proactive confronting challenge. That is what today is about. The imperative to study the technological environment within you must lead. Some of you, lets contemplate the very direct threats from what you must defend us in battle. Today, most of us are connected in realtime to the internet. Immediate notification of events is beeping into your own pockets and the students he registered the cell phones in the norwich unification system received an exercise notification early this morning and did anyone notice that. I am sorry if it woke you up. This is an indirect to to act right. Hunkered down, run, report in, alert somebody. This is an amazing capability for art safety to trigger action throughout norwich. So how would you respond to a directive to evacuate your building latest night and reported in at the u due to some threat. As you leave your dorm at midnight, you see the strong and you should ask why is it there. Is the security intending to search the building for a suspicious package. Perhaps its a local reporter getting media content for the tv news. Or maybe it is law enforcement, monitoring the safe evacuation or using facial Recognition Software to search for a suspect. The program to kill the target. So what if there were thousands of these on the battlefield. Automatically seeking targets wearing your countrys uniform. How are you going to lead men and women in that environment. Finally, what if this drones programming, incompletely analyzes the situation. Or as a coding error. What will you do or what will it do, if youre standing in front of its target. These of the sort of questions you should ask each time you get a suspicious email, or a directed text message we feel that your car automatically bumps here away from the side of the highway. Or when a drone buses overhead. One of these technical advances is mainly on the purpose. How far is this tech already gone and the government funded laboratories. And what capabilities are already there. How are you going to be ready to deal with those capabilities and how will you lead people against threats or faster, fearless, or devoid of empathy. These are Game Changing technologies and yours cannot rely and setting the past. This drones a fraction of the capabilities that exist today. Tomorrow state will be exponentially more powerful. And for 21st century leadership, youve got to be immersed in the future. Effective become futurist. So fortunately, we are joined by three futurist today. To get you started. You should have already read their biographies. If not, you can scan them now claim finishing these words. Theres plenty to engage each of them after the panelists book signing. The doctor is the head of policy planning, and the office of the secretarygeneral and nato. She is a policy advocate for Human Security stabilization, and peace building. She has written extensively on the future of terrorism, and nonstate actors. Her contribution and hurt the honor of knighthood from her birth country, italy. Doctor peter singers strategist and senior fellow at new america. Leading expert in the 21st century warfare. Advising the Defense Department industry and entertainment including the software called duty. His written nonfiction and fiction on future conflicts and the impact of cyber and robotics. They are listed by Foreign Policy, as one of the worlds top 100 innovators. And sorry is a senior fellow. Paul scharre, for new american society. Previously he was advising the secretary of defense, unmanned and autonomous systems. He served in the army third rangers leading special operations with teams, and iraq, and afghanistan. And bill gates named his book one of the top five books to read in 2018. He is also this years colby award winner. So Panel Members, life is busy. The filler days with work, or studies in relationships and having time to contemplate the future is rare especially while trying to think about battlefields. What is happening right now which may have Significant Impact on the 21st century warfare. Doctor bernie will you please lead off on this topic. Benedetta thank you very much for the kind introduction. I think everybody for being here. Ill start by saying that part of my job today, very much has to do with looking at future trends. Violated team in one of our main jobs is to just look at the future. Look at five ten 20 years down the line. What politics and trends were today. And what will they or how they affect our way of dealing with the future. That takes up quite a bit tough our time and our thinking. I will start us off with a couple of points did i know that im here with paul and peter, who very much Health Experts on how Emergent Technology and new technologies will affect the way we fight wars. Im going to talk about is also very important. When we think of future of conflict. In first the nato, as an alliance, very much thinking about how to address conflicts of the future. First assumption is that they will be unlike the topic of the past printed one of them is the fact that we have conflicts multi domain training also in operational domain. Like cyber, like the information environment. And we are making a number of decisions, and then we are ready to fight conflict on the small operational domain in the research and i would add another point is throughout sometimes we forget about the future of warfare in the conflict. And then is that more and more, we are called into position where we are asking the question, where does conflict begin when dissident and what is really conflict in the sense that were going to face more and more activity below the threshold. In its mixing and matching means to achieve maximum effects printed support facing a war in which all sorts of tools in our toolbox, and to Foreign Policy to a number of things that we traditionally saw them separated from. From pursuing our military and Security Policies will be mixed and matched together and i think that we still have a number of political and merit military but we have to undertake, to really be able to deal with conflict. In the last point i would add make that is that conflict also looks completely increasingly more unclear. Where does it beginning were dissident. And i would call it witnessing a number of no more and no peace. None of which are giving any indication of it going away. To the contrary, if we look at the National Political violence today, civil and human interring prices are occurring, to iraq, to syria, to afghanistan, to somalia, and i could go on. One of the characteristics here are is that we are in conflicts which the beginning and the end looks increasingly more board. This puts us in a number of really important dilemmas. How do we do development in window use military were effectively and that is a trend that is only going to increase. Frozen conflicts will be involved and they are not going to go away. If anything theyll be come more entrenched and i think places upon us a number of serious dilemmas in terms of how do we act to mitigate the conflict. And a lot of other friends by making this point the battlefield is not one but connecticut none connecticut are increasingly looking more blurred. I think this is a big dilemma Going Forward. Theres a lot of complexities in that story. So one of the story, or what trends are happening right now that are already real time for these things. Peter singer how to think you in the organized peers for having myself back here, it is a real honor to join you. And everybody is shown such fantastic hospitality. What was brought up there, i think that one of the other areas in terms of the future of warfare, is a key driver is the emergence of a series of technologies, you might think of a different buzzword. Sometimes revolutionary technologies sometimes disruptive technology. Basically what we are talking about is technologies that change the game. There technologies that a generation ago, we wouldve thought of as Science Fiction. It out real and poised to change the world annoys a change the world mean everything from society and business to what went on in the battlefield. Think of these is that the museum here earlier today and you have distinguished graduates back hundred 50 years. Who they led the United States navy adapting to that new steam engine and the idea of an armored vessel. You show the first graduates of the School Wrestling with the flying machines. You have in a business Cyber Security force here. That is not thought it was that computer 19, we are not thinking about that. So its intended on moving forward. We can see there is that. You can look down into something that paul myself at work in and in hardware space diesel and in illustration of the corner, is robotics but most importantly increasingly thomas. If you think of in the software space, is Artificial Intelligence. Lots of different definitions of it but essentially Machine Intelligence that is either simulating human decisions are doing them better in some way shape or form. The quicker for taking in more data etc. The change in the internet. Its about hardware, software, you have wave where. That is basically Energy New Energy sources, but also energy becoming a weapon itself. The reagan is no longer just something in Science Fiction. You have human formants modification using technology to change what we can do it might be things that we carry on the body or a for bit or name it or maybe technology in the body that a student here who is doing the research project, on brain Machine Interface Technology basically using your brain to connect up to a computer. This is not a Science Fiction class therein. This was in your engineering department. These are technologies happening out there. I think the first that makes them revolutionary, they give us new questions of what is possible that was not possible before. They give us questions of what is proper. Debates of right and wrong though we were not have having before. It might be of how to best organize my military unit, right and wrong question. The second thing to thing off what you brought up is not that it creates in terms of battle, multi domain but these technologies, unlike the ironclad of the Aircraft Carrier that really have low barriers of entry so its about the fact that multiple other actors will have them for nonstate actor and Insurgent Group now has a little manager air force. Saudia arabia is the thirdlargest convince budget in the world yet it that way combined drone a missile attack. Than the other but that i would came up was is not just the idea of the great space of conflict and knowing and begins or ends. As the speed of conflict is change. So ai, the goal of it as it makes it quicker decisionmaking in humans. There may be so much going on that we may not be able to weigh in as much as we used to. It might be continual. As the example of ukraine and we played with us and the ghost book, the cyber war effectively caused by ukraine before the first armed troops crossed into their territory. So they lost the war reporting began because what happened in their Networks Much before the fighting began. So interesting, there are people in this room they deployed into battle years from now and if the outcome of that metal may be shape rhino bite what is happening right now inside of the Computer Network or a microchip manufacturer. Col. Andy hird ret. was not been fastest government policy. Theres a lot of that in your writing paul scharre. So can you tell us about real time things that we need to be thinking about right now that impact the 21st century workers. Paul scharre the real challenge that we face from bureaucratic policy standpoint is just much slower in the change out there in the world. One thing about future conflicts, we do need to know. Over the last 30 years, loosing u. S. Military forces employed to iraq, somalia, kosovo, afghanistan to iraq again. Syria to iraq again. And to libya, we dont actually need to know what we going to fight. When i went to know that its really heavily dependent on a lot of political uncertainties. We need to know is what will the work might look like. Either get it close enough that the forces that we train are not grossly unprepared. We have full the pain and the cost of soldiers and servicemembers in recent forces overseas theyre not ready. World war ii and korea but we certainly felt that in iraq and afghanistan where we thought it very differently than what we were focused on. In the 1990s. So when you think about the filter is a sort of toolkits or National Security decision makers, and the right tools or belts. That we are ready to address whatever conflicts we were in. As peter talked about, or seen an explosion of Digital Technologies that are fundamentally changing different ways in which we are fighting. But one interesting thing is are also saying that theyre so incredibly rapid. People of a certain age, but when we look at david innovations, it was actually changing faster than it used to be. We continue to see exponential growth. Policies really struggle to adapt. For 20 years, u. S. Defense department is been talking about the challenge, precision guiding weapons, sensors, bethel Work Networks that will allow this department to project our. Things that basically render our Aircraft Carriers, airbases, significant the less useful in future conflicts. Theres a lot of locking in our system both in congress, within the pentagon bureaucracy and also culturally. We might have to change how we fight. You mentioned the shift from sale to see. That was a challenge inside of the navy. Shifting to horses tanks in the army. There are lots of historical examples of changing how we fight. I often see this get in the way because we have a lot of cork but sometimes its actually how we carry out a task. Rather than the initiative they were trying to reform. That could hinder military effectiveness. Col. Andy hird ret. with the pace of change so rapidly, were going to be adapting in just the next few years to start living crossed all fields. In just a little more than a decade, each of you are going to be deputies, Field Grade Officers and perhaps even business partners. So to our panel, could you please address what these men and women will face ten years out when they are advising each of you has been an advisor in many sorts of ways. So mr. Paul scharre, could you tell this future advisors, what should they be preparing for. Paul scharre one of the real fundamental challenges is this blending of war and not war. Confl