Terry to roll out the new book which rolled up today. Her book titled becoming kim jong un a former cia officers insights into north koreas enigmatic young dictator could not be more timely. The book provides a masterful insight into who kim jongun is, what makes him tick, and what keeps them up at night. The book is already earned wide praise from among the leading thinkers and for the policy practitioners dita with north korea. Were fortunate that jung and sue will spend the next hour with us breaking that when you dont about how north korea operates, who kim jongun is, and what is going on in north korea these days. They bring a wealth of knowledge to this conversation. They both are former intelligence analysts who represent the very best of their previous profession. They each were tremendous colleagues while in government and their tremendous friends to me now. In addition to being deeply informed, kind, and deadly sport, they also a ton of fun. So before i turn it over to jung and sue i do want to note that we have only collected many questions from the members of the audience and welcome you to send more. You can do so i sent an email to events at brookings. Edu or via twitter at hashtag becoming kim. With that it is my delight to turn over to sue and jung. I want to store so it came to an earthquake that i want to cycle what it is like to cover a country like north korea and a person like kim jongun as an analyst. So your book begins with your talk about analyzing north korea, your job as analyst with the cia. Making the hard call and as you know i start the cia two days before 9 11 and i covered kim jongil, and your cia years covered kim jongun on and between us from kim jongun to kim jongil there are two decades of covering north korea but we both agreed north korea indeed is the hardest target country. Could you talk about your job, how you analyze vast array of information, this information, connecting the dots, like connecting pieces of puzzle here different times, different places, so when a sword. Can we start with that . Thank you to ryan for that amazing introduction come for this kind words and to see you i can never get tired of your telling people about our first day. This is a rated pg conversation so she left out a lot, in that opening. Sue, thank you for doing this. Im so glad were able to do this. I think whats so interesting about how our paths crossed is that you covered the father and i covered the site and our paths cross. I think even on the cia website, the recruiter website you could see things like because we help us connect the dots. This is like a puzzle we have different puzzles come in at different times from different periods, from different places and we have to figure that out. But i think in the north korea issue, and we see this now all of this fragment information to me about whether kim jongun is alive or ill or whatever the case may be, is that because a north korea practices on operation security and the information security, it makes north korea the hardest of the hard targets. As you know this is something that always rang true throughout the building at langley. North korea doesnt want the regime doesnt want information to get out to the outside or within, or within north korea itself. And because of that we only a small circle of advisers, maybe a handful who might know where a what kim is doing at any given moment. I think that is designed to make sure no one gets any crazy ideas about starting protest are getting together or colluding against the regime. Its also make sure that as people an outside come the United States, south korea, china all sorts kept in the dark about the regime. Given all that i think a lot of [inaudible] given all that their operations, operation security, their tight hold on information makes a really difficult to actually [inaudible] in your book you talk about research. To reference his book on how intelligent analysts need to work through the weaknesses and biases and thinking that we need to continually test and review our key assumptions. I found that to be very true. I think thats one of those awful things about your book, about for checking our you know this book. We probably had five or six different copies given to us that any given point and so everybody, if you walk into any cia analyst office, former or in the langley, youll see books on the bookshelf with over to the site are somewhere, but it reminds me, one of the things about being a north korea follower is that north korea analyst is its extremely frustrating, right . You have to live with all of the ambiguity and provide answers when there are no answers. Its a lot of mental and also emotional gymnastics to try to get at the target. The stakes are high, right . Theres a reason north korea is a target, a hard target, and the reason we study north korea so much is because they have Nuclear Weapons. And it is position in the middle of the most vibrant, economically vibrant part of the world in asia. It sits next to chinasouth korea. Thats also where the u. S. Troops are present in south korea, and in japan. So given all of those factors, the fact we dont have very much absolute insight into the leadership intention, that makes it a very dangerous place and it really requires a lot of checking of the assumption, otherwise which is following a a different, a wrong path. One more question on cia and we will move on to north korea. What you think is the biggest misperception people have about the agency and what is it like not being in the government anymore . What do you miss and not miss . Is a weird not having top secret sources . Yes. So when i arrived at brookings in september of 2017 after almost nine years in the agency, i remember sitting at my desk and looking at my one screen, remember when with multiple screens . Yes. Just look at my one small screen and feeling i was deaf dumb and blind. What do people do for information . What are the listening to . What are they seeing . Talking to them . What is a government saying . That was a really difficult you to find other sources of information. I think you found that, to, it was difficult to acclimate to new information environment. What did you think when you left . No, no, like what do i not know . I mean, you become an information obsessed. So now you dont have it so thats like him to go through this with a drawl, right . So moving on to jim, well get the status of health and all that later but in your book you mention theres a tendency by analysts and scholars and media to portray kim jongun as a cartoon figure, right . A tenfoot tall baby, and theres a tendency to simultaneously underestimate overestimate his capabilities. You say with this capability, with his intentions come questioning his rationality and, of course, kim jongun is not the only one who was caricatured. I remember when i was coming kim jongil we similarly caricatured kim jongil. He was portrayed as a cartoon figure, making fun of issues and obsession with films and womanizing insulin. Kim america, remember . Could you talk to us about that kim jongun being portrayed as this cartoon figure and the consequences of implications of doing that . It easy to caricature the kim regime. And you know this come you seen this all your life. I think its because of that absence of deep knowledge about north korea. The two cams are very easy to caricature because of the way and thats one of the things that i wanted to do with this book is fight a fuller picture. It depends on where your gaze is. I think this is where richards comments about mirror imaging, that you cant be, you cant be projecting your own assumption are your own belief, and what i would do in that situation and so i think the whole moniker, that goes to how can they do this . Why would they do this . Dont they know we would hit them and destroy the west would destroy them . It does make any when you look from the north korea or the kim perspective its not crazy that something i try to explain, like what are the drivers of all of his actions . What is his historical baggage . What using mindful of the . What does he aspire to and how does that evidence or manifest in his actions . What might be crazy and unpredictable and irrational to us is actually written in russian italy on the part of ki kim. So inviting your book what most surprise you that kim jongun . Has your view of them change over the years since he took over . Has he exceeded your expectations . 2018 was really jarring. Remember that when kim did this [inaudible] and everyone seemed we about how he is different. Yes, he is different from his father and his grandfather. Hes different. Hes doing a pivot at the olympics and engaging with south korea and the United States after years of holding his neighbors at bay, that he was different. He studied in the west and yes a wife and he wants to be more modern and so we have to grab this opportunity. That was disconcerting and again they goes back how deeply uncomfortable it is a being an analyst of north korea, is that made me challenge [inaudible] what are we seeing in with the that mean and what is really driving the outreach . I remember we were at a conference, sue, and there was a really blustery, frightening statement after the pivot, and all of us were like yeah, thats the north korea that we know. The issuing of threats and telling as that theyre going to use their weapons, all that. I tried to get in the book to show that he still learning from us. Hes still growing. He still adapting, and that we have to be ready and be responsible to adjust our analyses based on the situation. Do you have a fun fact that people dont know about in, most people dont know about him . Like, for example, kim jongil, i know his favorite food of all time was sushi, but not only sushi, fatty tuna. [laughing] i think as i was writing you know sometimes when youre right, the more you feel like youre learning from the writing process . What i felt was with interesting is the role of women in north korea and the use of his wife. So i thought that was, that was what was really this is different because kim jongil did not have his wife in the public. They tried to keep the women in the background as much as possible. But i thought that was, there are many reasons why he would bring his wife forward. One was he was young and his father told him to get married just before he was, you know, in 2009, told, told him to get married because, and although this isnt explicit, because it would make him into a man, right . And in korean culture you are not a man until you get married and have your own family. So that gave him that gravitas of being this married, stable men. I know we will be talking about whats happening now, but i also think that the reason his wife [inaudible] or that he introduced his wife at all is he wanted to be sure that this was next in line. Kim jongil had a ton of women, right . Kim jongun come we dont know if hes messing around and he wants to add this image of a family centered man so i think i suspect hes thinking ahead in terms of secession. There should be no jockeying in the background of which line of the family is going to be the next in line. And you know, her role with north korea, kim teasing the world with the promise of a more peaceful time as it normalizes north Koreas Nuclear power, as a husband, a father and legitimate will with people like president moon, president xi, you write in your book i have a code here, the curated public appearances provide the region with a softer side with good humor to match the deprivation endured by the people and the possibility that hints but yeah, that was definitely illuminating. That everybody is talking about an official succeeding of something were to happen. Thoughts of his sister. He is clear he doesnt trump anybody else. This year the mother and the father. Kim went through the last few years of pruning the family tree marginalizing society. It is my guess the sister is in a position for kim jong uns children. There is a lot of speculation, these are real questions, and north korea has to do that. Biological questions. And this is a reminder. What is your best estimate of what is going on with north korea . We have so many conflicting reports but what is your take . Maybe while we wait for someone to get back on, we are having technical difficulties, talk a little bit about what is going on, just to talk a little bit about my sense of what is going on, no confirmed reporting, no one knows what is happening with kim, there are cultural data points since april 11th kim jong un has not been seen and he has been out of public view in the past it is unusual he missed two very important events including april 15ths celebration of his grandfathers birthday in the Army Day Celebration on saturday. Missing this april 15th celebration is significant, because i dont think he has ever missed that event. That is noteworthy. One other interesting fact, the North Koreans are very quiet about this. You would think they monitor the news coming from the world, they are not doing that. Your best estimate, and we dont know what is happening, it is curious things are unusual. Something is off but we wont know what is. The questions remain about what the implications are of his absence. The information penetration, so rumors are going to get around, all this chatting is going on in the chinese chat rooms. All this information and all those rumors are going to get out and it would benefit and advantage to show up sooner rather than later. You think kim jongil is likely to succeed kim jong un if something were to happen . He was given all of what the regime has to elevate the family line, and that propaganda. And can be hard to have a kim Family Member. A full Family Member at the house. To his brothers policies. Look at history, he got rid of 5 to 7 people helping him at the funeral procession is marginalized the other time, and not strangers to, they have to use it. And to the government. And is it stable. The elite, to collaborate, to her buddy on the west coast and the east coast. I understand i understand kims purchase of the past two years. And no ones network, or pardon something, and i would see purchase, but we have to be careful about thinking of the regime, it is gradual, and it is along the lines, all the things happening so far. The North Koreans are pretty clear north korea cannot trust anybody except for kim, or what the past few years have shown is the us is not a reliable partner. South korea is not a reliable partner and something i tease out, allies are not they turn their back on you. Lets talk about north korean policy before the question. If he is not incapacitated it is alive and well. With can he expect from kim in the future, he prefers to deal with trump and President Biden. Next step this year or the coming years. He came into the scene in 20112012, North Koreans didnt have to tighten their belts anymore. That was his fathers line, turning to his policy, the dual track policy and economic prosperity. What is interesting, there looks to be some belt tightening but a long struggle with the United States and things will be hard and people have to work harder, longer, faster, and it seems that kim has closed the door, texas a little bit open, engaging with the us. I dont know if he would make any big moves now in the us election, the deal at this point given who knows what after the election and the deal would not be implemented. I think what im going to see the test, this is something that they do to improve their capabilities. We will see ramped up cyber activities and a panel of experts and private Research Companies that have documented this very well. A lowcost way of generating revenue for the chain. That is what we are going to see to try to maintain his weapon. And and muddle through, there are complications. I dont think it is a Major Nuclear test but i do think there is going to be needs to show that he is strong, not a weak person. All the missile tests gearing up to that. Does he prefer to deal with donald trump second term or President Biden . Things look pretty good for kim in terms of foreign relations. He has a us president praised him for his leadership and ignored human rights violations, we dont have human rights envoy in north korea. Donald trump and the Trump Administration turned a blind eye toward shorter range Ballistic Missile tests and other provocative action. The us south korea relationship is not great, the burden sharing is outstanding and thousands of korean workers have been furloughed. Things with us china are not great, they are trading barbs who started corona and whos doing a worse job. South korea and japan are fighting, theres a trade dispute, a fullscale conflict that turned into the security and economic realm. Based on the disarray in the region and lack of us leadership at the highest level in the region and the fact that kim has had a free reign in terms of weapons testing, i think if there was more of this environment, these are net positive for kim. Host want to be our policy, you write that is ultimately not a businessman and in donald trump absence of the word is not, presumably the North Koreans too, this is not what they are looking for and Donald Trumps mirror imaging led to policymaking that did not comport with reality so is unlikely to give up Nuclear Weapons to get missile franchising, what is the right approach. What would you recommend for Donald Trumps second term or President Biden . What should we be doing . I dont put that up front in the book too. I let story develop and looking at some of the episodes in various parts of his personality, various parts of his life, various parts of north koreas history and build to that toward policy recommendations that was designed to show that kim is not just about security guarantees, he requires a hostile outside world to try to justify his rain and the problem with Donald Trumps approach, the beachfront condominiums and having great real estate is kim does not want american entrepreneurs running around in his country setting up mcdonalds franchises. He does not want people building railroads or fixing their infrastructure for him because he doesnt want nonNorth Koreans are uncontrollable inside the country inspecting, with crazy ideas about market economies and democracy and Good Governance so he doesnt want that. Is not a subcontractor that hotel youre fro