Was Margaret Macmillan and robert. I am david at the editor of the policy journal and id also like to welcome the National Members for participating through the wide screening. I was saying i had a little surprise for the guests because 100 years ago today United States was preparing to muster 500,000 troops and gear up the war. President wilson had given an ultimatum that we didnt go to war at least not then. That power is on this side of the atlantic. The great menace of the moment i found this on the front page and the next 17 pages and there wasnt a single mentioning if youre a whereas the two featured authors today have on a cold day siege of the real world war. The second floor had the just concluded and now europe was building a deadly confrontation so it is my great pleasure to welcome margaret in the war that ended the piece, as she was describing it and on the far side it showed how it paved the way to understanding what was already building in europe and its been a great passion of mine especially since college myoblasts bug the price we pay today and that is coming out in a new addition for the 100th anniversary. Speaking of which there were many times approaching this but fundamentally they come down to personalities and historical imperative so in the new book i want to quote something endsinglequote a few words from you. A few generals had the power and authority to say yes or no to mobilizing the harmonies to be co rvs so the big question was was it Uncontrollable Forces that were inevitably moving towards the war or was that those individuals . I dont think that they were moving inevitably toward the more. Im reluctant to talk about the inevitability because it means theres nothing we can do and i think often there are choices and what you had before was pushing towards the more you have heightened nationalism and arms race and so on, but at the same time strong forces for peace you have people who thought they are so progressive that we will not ever have a war again, a big middleclass movement and International Working class socialist movement that said repeatedly they wouldnt take part in the capitalist war so that seems to me that they were on easy between the forces but i wouldnt use the word inevitable. You are the constant biographer through so many of your works before and since. We usually think of it as the great estrin of the warfare. Was it the people . It was created by the people. William was not victorious oldest grandchild who spent his summers in england. He desired to be the war that ended peace was half english and a desire to be accepted by his english family and by the british people as god. His mother was victorias oldest child etc. He was also the heir to the german throne and the subject to the aptitudes and swagger of bismarck germany that became in that generation from the time williams grandfather became emperor after the collapse of france became the greatest industrial military power with the great army that i wholly agree all these factors industrial, military and so forth were at the disposition of the apparatus which individuals were operating and therefore it was very important to these individuals were, with their antecedents had been. William was the emperor of germany and physically afflicted and psychologically i think afflicted. He had a great power for i want to say evil but for destruction and he was constantly shifting back and forth between a sort of desire to do good to be recognized. The racist because william wanted a great navy. Britain and france had already gotten all the colonies but no one knew quite what the german navy was for, certainly the british navy didnt. They asked themselves yo who hae the most powerful army in europe, why do you need a great navy who was it supposed to be building against . Guest it seems to me one of the events up to the lead of thleave ofthe war itself is buio the empires that were led by peace leaders and probably more that went into one in Indian History by 1913 if they had simply become unattainable the nationalist movement was very much is bad enough when they sa thought they could do ty no longer believed but i think what happened is so much had been divided up. There was china so that was the general feeling of there was the Ottoman Empire and it was circling around both china and the Ottoman Empire but what was more important is this idea you couldnt be a great power without an entire and we dont think like that and i think that its as any other human activity there was thi disbelief because britain was the governor of power that the empire is what made it dominant in favor to blame also enough to put blame not exactly that he popularized and expressed the idea and great powers have empires and navies to protect your trade in the entire. He read that they should be given in german churches about the ideas that made for all the sermons. There is a narrow slice of time and it would become so critical to the trouble is both with the personality who had a lovehate relationship. He was in charge of a very powerful nation. The so he could take it and had a great deal of power under the german constitution and i think that is what made him so dangerous. Theres this sort of imperial presidency that doesnt seem to work that much. I was able to dictate so many things to a certain degree nowadays they cant even get them to develop to the least well. It seems to be changing. Do you have that sense . Ive always been a lifelong democrat in retrospect he had the experience, maybe not the articulation, but the experience and the presence and reputation to stand up dave eloquently express was not intended as a challenge to as an addon to military power whether it be a great world power they were expert but training relative. A they bring their army into britain is unthinkable and thats why the liberal government came in and they had all kinds of social plans, education, so forth what is your problem for this period is very oppressive and heavy to get through this crisis because if there had been a series there is that over bosnia in the 1911 and there was a sense of complacency we go through all these in 1914 if we look at the british newspapers so you get a combination to accept it could be used for that expense even though they should have known better i think and also the expectation that on the other hand it is another crisis we will get through it again and this is true of the british in particular. The. They went to war in 1998 and came close to war in 1906, 1907 so there were other causes that he was particularly dangerous because of where they were with the interests met not just local interests of the active competing that were becoming more vociferous. What you also had were great power interests you had a sort of combination of the dangerous local rivalries to also described this as well thinking about that its changed since you first wrote this a quartercentury ago is relevant. Ive got five or six of us to read to learn what its taught us a. Ive never been asked to do this kind of Conference Panel on the subject so ive not thought of it much but the i will be interd to read it began ten months ago i am going to look beginning with the book and to see what you say i need to rethink. I would just say that talking about the balkans, ive always thought that government indiana was very worried about the influence of and they have been looking for an excuse to do something about it militarily. The pretext was perfect. Nobody improved. But then when they gave a and said along with a lot of other things they must be a part of the Judicial Panel which is going to interrogate and trace back to the connections and kaiser was aware it was the only ally in europe austria was crumbling. They are going to make this and they occupied and so forth. The emperors tried various ways to stop the progression of floor but the culmination of this dangerous situation and then Everybody Knows they planned for the war against france if and when it happened as a part of the war against russia it didnt turn out the way the world is facing similar challenges they have chosen to work matters out and get this failed. They are very often wanting their place in the sun. It needs management on both sides and i hope that is something. There were so many relationships in c. And they identified completely but i think what you had his nationalist forces we all think it is a good thing if yo and you had an intense spread of mass media which put pressure on the government even when they would have preferred to be accommodating great covers can be drawn into things by their lesser allies and sometimes dont have as much control as they would like to. We have seen in the present day they tied up with protections of the power. I would like to invite the members to join the conversation with questions and this meeting is on the record. State your name and affiliation keep it concise label start here and work back. Some years ago there was a book on the subject. The focus of the book was to say it was the arch villain of the whole situation and the we agree with that. They had the Constitutional Authority to and he said im not backing down this time and i think this is a dangerous sort of pressure to show he really could be a decisive leader although he was pessimistic but in the end they made a decision demobilization plan was for the war and at one point they had a separate plan to which meant they didnt effectively have a plan but those that allowed them to go on making plans in the final crisis can we mobilize i think it could have been done and i tend to believe him. And inevitability would it have been possible at any moment up to the actual beginning of the war not to have happened. When austria decides in serbia is still not inevitable that was one of the great in the plan i think at that point they were not afraid to be too afraid of the british army and said we will deal with it with one hand tied behind our back. I wonder if you could explore for us what were the consequences and the politics and three versus the were taking they had close relations with germany to train the ottoman forces and the escorts were in the process of constructing the railway and they had see have ss less of a menace than russia where there were huge conflicts all around the border but also very well aware of the gold and they had been talking for quite a while and it was Common Knowledge so they calculated that but it was a very managed to stay in as long as they did but in the end they could look on to the point of all hope. It was very much a calculation. Does it make you think anything different about the conduct of the war itself if you were asked to do another editi edition . The questions i find interesting we tend to focus on the tremendous strain and the people that support the war when it had become clear why was there no hope of peace and what is it that kept them going on and on and i think both of those would make subjects are interesting books 1967 he used the archives have taken advantage and he didnt have access to the files in east germany at the time do you agree that it was the major cause of the war . I dont have access to it because i wrote my book 22 years ago. It would have happened in some form without all of the other continental powers. They ignored the treaty i think et and 38 or 89 which the antecedent of the german empire sign and austria, france and britain and the british was the two determinants of the british policy ned must always be superior to any other power or group of power. And there must be no continental launching pad which could be used as a stepping stone for an invasion i think that the british were sequentially when they saw the germans building a great navy and there were various british officials including churchill tried to draw down to stop building so many. Nobody tells germany what to do. It became an invasion which they decided to resist. They did that for two reasons. But they didnt want anybody that close. They stood and looked across the channel so they fight to preserve the home islands but i think britain could have stayed out and perhaps would have despite its understanding if they hadnt invaded belgium they sent a victory and what also happened is when you get those they are taken and was battles in 1914 this is actually a mistake and can stop now were there any viewers during the war from either side . There were some through sweden how do you think the rest would have played out . Spinnaker is an interesting new book but i tend to think that is overstating it a bit. The best criticism of the notion came from a german general who said you cant roll up a great power and get carried away like a cat in a bag. They suffered a huge loss of the battle in the late summer of 1914 dot there was a huge amount and always had a great asset and capacity to treat so it is possible to go back to your assumption it would have been a very unhappy continent if it managed to persuade for peace it probably would have taken a big chunk which would have brought it that much closer to the reactionary elements but there was the sort of interplay getting rid of the constitution would have had the upper hand and they would have been nominated which i suspect would have become more authoritative and they would have had to do something made an extraordinary sound point underscoring how commonplace the prospect as you got close to 1914. I remember reading the same in your buck how ordinary the thought became a statesman and officials but a half generation earlier they got their Heads Together and stayed out of the war and the preservation of balance and peace at a much higher level. What happened to the statesmanship in that half generation that made the war so much likely in 1914 . That is a very good question. I think partly you always free have to remember what they had experienced and what you had in the generation is people remembered how they damaged the society and is awaiting there was a willingness to invest in what is peace and stability of and then of course it moves and if they dont have the same official reaction because they couldnt fix. And state. It made a difference. The appreciation of what it could mean there was plenty of evidence bouncing up by 1900 because it is a growing power of the defenses. People said look at the American Civil War was attacking with terrible losses and they are not proper soldiers. We fight for proper war and we can still do the attack. Theyve got this time and time again we have a another phenomenon and another a Younger Generation saying weve missed out on all of these. Its easy when you havent actually experienced it. This was seen as a glorious conflict comes something you had to participate. Initial reaction, not everyone greeted with excitement. There was a lot of dismay when it finally broke out at the opposite was the sense that we have the chance to prove ourselves in ways we havent had up until now. I am the executive editor and have a question. You both have been talking about how there was this idea of a happy little war they havent experienced ihadntexperienced y before and also you talked about the allies, about having some sort of control and i wondered if theres any comparison to be made with the neocons who helped to sort of create a drumbeat for the war. I should let the american answer this. [laughter] i think that you would have a lot to say about it, too. You know my opinion. Ive already said i am a lifelong middle of the road democrat. That said, thats all im going to say. [laughter] i do think they can idealize it. Even in the political leaders we have generations of until kennedy and nixon or even george bush senior people who had experienced it firsthanhaveexpei think they have a different attitude often much less gung ho because they know what its going to cost and what it means and how difficult it is to do and i do think that we have that you have that even among the canadian government a lot of talk and i think you should be careful especially if you are not the people but to pay the price for it. Some of the generals, some of the statesman on both sides and some of the British Imperialist who talk about how they need to fight so yes we should look back and say. But one footnote, the father, frederick, was not like his son. He married an english woman, he was a liberal. If he hadnt died of cancer after 99 days and they handed the throne to this tormented child who needed to prove his manhood etc. , i think given the power which weve all cited as being a major or, frederick could have what . Changed germany to make it much more constitutional and marveled much more control over the government. He wanted to strengthen. Now i think it is one of the tragedies. He would have made a difference. He would have wanted to do everything in the opposite direction. Given the fact that it was visible even at a time, could the United States or any other outside party have played a role in stopping this had they wished to do so or had the disposition . Whats interesting in the relationship as it was managed very well. They scared each other because they knew they backed down and came to an understanding and i think it is a successful example of how changes in the balance in International Relations can be managed. I dont think they could have stopped it to begin with quite rightly they thought i felt it s war and they had no interest. The atlantic was providing it to. You could disagree that the time the United States was a rising power but not get the power it would become. It was in the process of translating its considerable and growing economic power into military power. It was beginning to build a big navy that this inavy that this d its army was pretty small. At this stage of his smaller than the army of italy so i think the United States didnt have the capacity to intervene or the well. The reaction we could tell from the American Public opinion was long before the opinion polls they have gone crazy. The American Opinion was very divided. On the irish living in the United States most of the mother and go and of course you have a huge german population. A quarter of all were german descent in this period so that wasnt clearcut. Their loyalties were divided. They had plans to raise an army of 500,000 army smaller than so they would distract. They had to worry that the military power to the north, my own country