One of the first people i met into our planning and congressman style not only did you take speaker ryans place but a former paul ryans staffer i think there is a closer fiscalke hawk then probably doctor tom to inspire the effort in your former boss and predecessor. So we are curious to hear your unique perspective as millennial legislators indicating Small Business person South Carolina and similar business background. We would really like to evolve into a discussion molly have you online because you have so much in common with the members of this commission. Thank you for havingh us. This is an issue dear to my heart literally the number one issue i ran on. We have been out of control for decades when i first came to congress that was one of the most pressing issues and in the first year we spent one. 4 trillion more than we brought in revenue at 25 trillion in debt nine on the Financial Services committee but i was talking about this left and right but in 2025 we would spend more money on Interest Payment and the entire Defense Budget keep in mind thatat is 730 billion. Thats a huge number so here we are now in 2020 and the date the 2025 that will probably be next year. We are out of control the only thing that is saving us there is no alternative to the dollar its a global currency is the only thing not causing major problems in thehe economy i dont know how much more debt we can have. We have to get the economy back on track but next congress we have to have a serious conversation about the appropriate amount of debt and how we stop the debt spending and start shipping a way to reduce the debt which i think is 30 trillion next year and this is unacceptable if this happens again we cannot be in a position to respond i appreciate you putting this together. About solutions but im coming to the next congress with an open mind thank you for putting this on. Just to give some open thoughts to the perspective in your previous life as a staffer i feel like you are one of those that are new to congress to be a leader and thinking about fiscal stewardship thats the purpose of this commission with our generation stepping up i believe theres not much of an argument our generation will be the first to confront the consequences what i describe is an experiment nobody knows how dire the consequences are but most who have conducted the experiment wont be around see how bad those consequences are. Iav appreciate you organizing todays event we are both on Financial Services so tomorrow we have a hearing at j powell so we are prepping for that but what is the longterm sustainability . In conjunction with the fed Balance Sheet so the Senate Banking committee today virtually thats a whole other ball of wax but the most compelling statistic that is one of the driving forces so we came into the end of last year with the debt to gdp ratio was to keep it simple this yeart obviously in a recessionary environment to dramatically increase traditional spending so that projected cbo ratio is 101 percent. That is the Tipping Point when you get into the danger zone. Next year it will bring some level of stability back we should see Economic Growth began to increase and then with the governmentin spending. And then to turnov the tying on the tie thats a broader conversation we love to talk about waste fraud b and abuse the driver of our longterm debt those that are functionally those dont have congressional approval for spending have what that means but that gdp ratio will now probably be over 100 percent year so atof the the beginning of covid into the market both in traditional under thee cares act two two. 9,000,000,000,000. 1. 5 trin spending out the door. And the 25 trillion doesnt take that into account so congress has allocated and that is the discretionary side the Federal Reserve is increase the Balance Sheet and then to do quantitative easing and to have that Balance Sheet so what were going to befe looking at is out of this first fade early next year we will have to have a serious conversation and for the sfiscal stability. And then we are fighting the sameo battles. And while the private sector and those and to take a serious approach as we began to look out to do this from a practical way to make sure people understand the enders dan the situation we are in and to get us back on a sustainable path. We have had some idl issues jane we will get your question here. And thank you so that National Debt on the side of thed medicaid, i have a question. I never really understand why the medicare cost this year in the u. S. Is so high. Its a fundamental question. Why do you have to pay such a high medical fee and how do we fix that . Is there any obstacle, im thinking of this administration, they are trying to change the health care. We have a lot of problems with that. What are the obstacles for the medically ensured, Health Insurance and the medical cost an expense there . Thank you jane. Guys, did you get that question . I think this question really has three parts. Currently is being disputed, different people progress within the 50 trillion is too much perhaps i think that ten 15 trillion is probably the most that i would be comfortable with. Soly that is the first question. We have to fully litigate good consensus around that. There is number one. Number two is if you agree that we have too much debt and he agreed to benito reduce it, not only do we have to balance our budget we actually have to pay down our debt. But conversationsns on the budgt committee in january throughout the year last year. There was no policy that anyone was willing to support that would balance the budget over a decade. Ill say that again pretty there was no legitimate proposal that the republicans, the democrats, or anybodyouse willing to touch that would balance the budget. Keep in mind, that is just balancing the budget process of chipping away the debt. Over trillion dollars a year. William timmons theres all of these conversations about waste have got tois. We get more support. Theres two things well three things, one is going to be dedicated medicare. That is an overall and and align the interests whether it is a individual,al the hospitals, pharmaceutical Companies Insurance companies and the list goes on and on. We could just have a basic realignment of ourdi healthcare system. It is not working. Social security is easy. My will be different than my dads been im going to work longer. And get less benefits pretty that conversation has to becu h. It is really challenging politically. But it is a requirement that we read a justice. Now a lot of people including this conversation in the migration. Thats the last thing. And we need to, immigration, a number of different components to that but if we can get everyone on this country on the governments radar, sign about where we have a reasonable approach to immigration. And everyone is contributing, i think that will be make a big dent. First we talk about that, then we talk about the major drivers medicaid medicare and Social Security. Nothing can be off the table. If republicans on the room and they say, we have got to cut Social Security. And were not talking about other things. That is not good place. We all have different ideas of how we will fix is present going to go in with all options on the table. Thats including revenue, only way we is the can have these three conversations with mostly. If you look at the pie chart of the federal, healthcare costs are big part of it. Healthcare cost america are through the roof. So the combination, certainly miss you have got to be part of a productive conversation about Long Term Debt reduction. Right. Is everybody having a benefit bandit with issue. I think i picked up the question for is a way that me if you cant hear me. I think youre spot on. If youre thinking about this right. On the mandatory spending side in 2019, was roughly 2. 75 trillion. You gotta think about that breaking down the questions her, from jane is really focused in on the cost of healthcare. And so if you look at that, 775 billion on medicaid and 400 billion in medicare. Thats only picking up the federal side of the ledger. So theres also a large component to expend in this tube mandatory pieces. And were not going to solve allth of that on this call. But it is imperative to know that one of the drivers of this is our ability to deliver highquality healthcare and costeffective manner. I think theres a brother opportunity here to look at ways in the United States were it continued to deliver the high quality that the United States is known for a for the healthca. And so you look at surveys and look at kind of Empirical Data on the quality of healthcare in the United States, is topnotch. The challenges on the cost side level ofing the highquality care. And so not only is that going to be critical from the general population, private sector healthcare and private insurance of the United States but obviously of playing a key role as a running suit debt. Funds aree, being spent on medicare ad medicaid. As well as a statelevel spending for those exact programs. We are not going to solve this on todays call. But i do think that continuing to look at opportunities to deliver highquality healthcare and affordable way, think there is an opportunity to really put in place, reall competition in the marketplace to drive down costs. We can get kind of in the weeds on any one of those points. But i think there will be an imperative step of taking the overall driver of the desk, medicare and medicaid spending, continuing highquality, delivery of the product and overrode the big picture, kind of a global perspective, the u. S. And equality of their Underlying Health care. The very unsatisfied with the cost structure. Not only is that true in the private sector side or people their insurance outofpocket are often in conjunction with her employer. It shows up on the federal debt signed medicare and medicaid. So i think that we will continue to look for improvements on the delivery structure of healthcare. In the United States and i think that jane, youre spot on that is one ofk the key components here as we look to bad that occurred on our debt to gdp ratio. An equity investor, has a question. By the way, you look right and we can hear you well. I apologize if you are having problems with us on the side. Thank you congressman. In your effort in the National Debt find pretty my question, is a bit ofyo a twopart. Earlier we had talked about issues of getting an of of support on this issue when there are other more senior officials and senators andug congressmen l there are more important aspects. How do you feel with individuals such as yourself, to get the National Debt, that seeking aspect that without being some of the congressman on the other side of the aisle in regards of some of their issues. Frankly at this point, i think the issue from the debt standpoint is Public Opinion is that we may have to look into it and its unfortunate. Issues in regards to states and municipalk debt. This aspect of having to look inward and talk about these issues that we have in depth. Largely are avoided. Thank you. I will jump in first grade it will take political courage. These are really hard conversations you have. They all agree that the Number One Nationalon security we facer securities or depth. And if your friends across the but i still have money. They all agree this is literally the Number One National security issue facing our country. So the question against are we going to proactively address this printer we going to reactively dressna it. As we get into a situation where our policies are being dictated toa us by our liquidity by our ability to borrow money, if the world tells us, we cant do this anymore. That will be really bad. How do we get the political courage to Start Talking about the Debt Reduction measures that are necessary without the politicalli consequences. We are not talking about Social Security. Im talking about healthcare. It is very easy to do a political ad and say they want to take away your Social Security. Take anybody over 40 or 50 or 60. My Social Security mathematically cannot be my fathers. Its just not possible. And we cannot be spending money that we dont have. And we cant spending our childrens and grandchildrens money. We justt need to do things like this. Focus on debt. Focus on percentage of gdp. A bill last year, from california, democrats and it requires to start using gentoo ddp as a metric that reports on pretty the ceos. These are the conversations we need to s have. It just takes courage. To build on that, i think part of this isit going to be pertinent, after it is too late. So as you look at the level of debt we have and the low Interest Rate environment. It is in the short to mediumterm, probably more long term, list of in large part because most people have projected at some point will have an inflationary. In inflation and it will rise from these historic lows. So interestrate rights, shortterm borrowing costs will dramatically increase pretty normal but significant pressure on the debt and deficit. So i think one of the questions we will be having when im looking forward to having the conversation with jay powell, tomorrow is what are the longterm implications of carrying this debt in conjunction with the increase in the Balance Sheet. What are the tools left in the toolkit. To control inflationary environments that at some point, we have a risk of entering into. So the key will be to continue to identify the risk today so there is a political will. Bryan steil in meetings like this today are productive and continuing to have that conversation will be critical because at some point, it will be up to us to act. Anthe structure, of congress iso be reactionary, not proactive. So proactive steps are very challenging to get done in washington. Everybody will have their priorities, understood it. But just as a general basis, the structure washington dc, is set up to be reactionary. It is very difficult too make proactive steps in a key component of this is going to get this into the public dialogue in a way that is really driven as a president ial campaign level. So hopefully get ourselves in the spot where this is what we are talking about on the other side of an election. Were able to take big challenging steps in a proactive way. And that admittedly only happens to get us out of the scenario. Let me add one more thing to that. The process for the budget is completely dysfunctional. Most markets dont realize it. We dont have a legitimate budget until july right before we went into the august recess break. As it pushed through a budget, the root rules that were previously agreed due to. There were no pairings. The democrats didnt propose a budget. This largely because the president has the white house and the senate is controlled by republicans and democrats, political messaging against them because then want to create a playbook for the are priority. Budget process reform is a big step in the right direction to where we actually have hearings about this. We are thoughtful in the manner which we planned it have got to abide by the rules set in place. Lantana hearings. William timmons and the budgetary process is critical to this conversation. In actually working on that freedom on that committee. Im very fortunate to be on there and we will be propagating budget reform recommendations here in the next few months. So budget process reform is definitely a major component of this conversation. To build on williams,or ther. 2. 75 trillion, is mandatory which mandatory what it really means is that requires no additional vote, it continues year after year unless acted on otherwise buried a fraction of that, 1. 3 trillion is discretionary split between roadson and bridges and defensie pretty roughly broken down, rough math 600 billion each. And so inside of the budget, its only the discretionary side. And so when you are looking at a debt and deficits ratio, you could completely remove the entire military of the United States of american notes would still be running a deficit. Several key here is to force congress to act. Yet the difference of being proactive versus reactive. Bryan steil congress ascend to place a of rules of mandatory spending that makes it very difficult for congress to take proactive action and when ourselves in theor position to t our budget back in a sustainable path. Thank you. One of the questions i get askedud a lot is on the intentin and its very ambitious. What are the consequences greeted ten years ago, the projection that might not come true. Of people actually they said that there would be a shrinkage in the deficits. I would petition both of you on the behalf of this. To ask chairman powell, tomorrow a question about the longterm consequences. Behalf. I think it is important come there are only so many people and then a deeply divided political environment. You have authority pretty think about the doctors unique role in American Life the last couple of months. And jay powell has handled the economic side of this crisis. Weston one of the things he said as i was watching the Financial Services. In other words there is no real long term, we are not china. We dont have the Initiative Building infrastructure across africa. Were really just kind of it a lazy spot of pay the bills and avoiding the rope difficult circumstances that are likely playing ahead. He has answered this to some degree. But even in this mome