Affected companies and disrupted billions of lives and jeopardize development process. The june edition of the world banks Global Economic prospects which motivates todays conversation and visions a 5 1 4 percent construction in global gdp in 2020. This is a different recession sinceworld war ii. And a drop in capital incomes since 1870 and it is a timely and vigorous report informed by an assessment of the fundamental drivers of longterm growth includingthe collapsing investments which will slow capital formation. And the dislocation of trade and supply linkages among others. Beyond the headline Economic Growth numbers the pandemic is having a disproportionate effect on low Income Countries where the dependence on commodity prices, food is the largest and in a way economies are dominated by the factor with which lowers its ability to adjust to measure such as confinement similarly, the most vulnerable populations in the advanced economies are relatively more exports as such a pandemic is likely to leave a legacy of even wider inequalities between and within countries unless quality response is integrated with dimensions area and it was refreshing to see the report on inequality. But as disruptive as the pandemic has been to the lives and economies around the world, there is unfortunately no great uncertainty as to whether we have seen the worst case scenario. Notably the epicenter of the pandemic appears to have rotated to the south where the ability to combat the virus is more limited and where fiscal policy response and sufficient economies are constrained by elevated debt levels in several countries and by and an ability of countries to order in their own currencies. The lack of coordination and cooperation means that the global systemremains only as strong as its weakest link. And the virus will remain a threat the Global Economy unless it is eradicated in every country. We are also seeing a resurgence of new cases and some countries, notably the United States causing policymakers to dialback their opening plans. Meanwhile encouraging progress and the timing for the discovery of a vaccine or treatment remains uncertain. The complexity of the environment raises several questions. How sensitive is the Economic Outlook particularly that rebound projected for next year or the assumptions about a timing of the unreliable vaccine treatment. What will be the longlasting effects of the pandemic on the fundamental drivers of Economic Growth such as Human Capital investment but also on critical sectors that were hit particularly hard such as tourism. What do we make of the apparent disconnect between main street and wall street with stock market indexes have recovered much of their losses despite highly uncertain economic environment. Finally, are there any Silver Linings . Where do we see opportunities to peel back and find stronger economies . How should policymakers announce realtor realities while seizing the opportunity to revive the sluggish growth global activities which had been threatening ager economies with secular stagnation. These are questions on our minds at brookings as we emerge into a post covid Global Economy and we are fortunate to have with us a Diverse Panel of experts who help make sentence of this all and i look forward to the conversation which will be moderated by my colleague david wessel and our World Bank Bank colleagues ayhan kose. Thank you and over to you ayhan kose. Thank you and thank you for organizing this session and being a part of this distinguished panel. Let me share my screen quickly. So looking into our report Global Economic prospects in june. Because of the time constraints im going to focus on three points. First is the point about the shorter reparations of the pandemic read this is going to be the best and most synchronized in the global recession since the second world war. So emerging economies, into this first recession these economies are going to experience is a group on record. Risks are still tilted to the downside the second point is about a longterm implications of the pandemic and there we have seen before the recessions that are going to be in the context of the pandemic theyre expecting a potential output, meager investments and weaker productivity over the longterm finally , i arson priorities on the agenda to discuss and then addressing the Immediate Health crisis is the urgent priorities but beyond the crisis, policymakers need to look forward and update policymakers to lay the foundation for strong and growth. Throughout the presentation im going to use this acronym, he and these are emerging. How do we see the Global Outlook this year and the next year. Right now, its clear that there is a plunge in activity around the world. Theyre expecting Global Growth to be around 5. 2 percent this year. When you take into account economies contraction isgoing to be about , but in an emerging market , the economies are really the engines of Global Growth for an extended period of time. As a group no will experience the first recession and they will see their contracts grow by 2. 5 percent. If you look around theregions , you will see differences but pretty much a serious downturn is underway. In terms of the asianpacific theyre expecting positive growth mainly because china will grow this year and its going to be the only asian economy that will see positive growth by about 1 percent. They push growth to about. 5 percent. Other than that, all the regions will have is contracted. Think the caribbean. It will see a contraction it has never seen over the past 100 years area locally there will be around 7. 2 percent. In africa, europe and central asia, middle east and north africa , regions and other countries with commodity exporters who see significant declines in their growth rates. Even in south asia, a region that has no commodity exporters will see historical contractions contracting by about 3. 2 percent. Next year growth will come back but we are expecting a theoretical recovery in the downturn this year. This is a truly historical global recession. If we go back all the way to ancient times if we have a reasonably good data, there would have been 14 global recessions and each global recession you saw Global Economy contracting in protecting incomes. This will be the fourth deepest global recession. The deepest one since the second world war. Here are three global recessions are important to understand here. Two of them will were associated with world war so if you take all those two, this global recession will be the deepest since 1870 after the Great Depression. The future of this episode is global economies will see the highest share of economies in serious contraction, slightly more than 90 percent this year read this number is higher even than what we saw in the height of the Great Depression area there are risks and these risks still tilted to the downside. The single most important risk is an effective way of pandemiccoping. If you look at the reality , the pandemic is pretty much under control in these economies except the United States. You can take out the United States and you will see that the number of daily inspections went down significantly. Since the beginning of march. But on the other hand in emerging markets but the economies, the pandemic is in full force and in the caribbean, in subsaharan south africa, you see a significant increase in the number of infections these are the regions with limited Service Capacity and limited Testing Capacity so we have a limitedunderstanding of the gravity of the pandemic in these regions. Now, beyond the shortterm this pandemic will have longterm implications. There is no question that there are large losses. And these losses are not going to be recouped next year when the growth comes back. In fact, it has happened to remove the 2009 global recession we are not going to go back to prepandemic levels anytime soon. These types of recessions will have longlasting stars in these economies and will affect physical relations, and of course productivity. Another important consequence of this pandemic is how the global economies have pivoted to basically generate growth is going to be constrained by the shock we are going through. Prior to the pandemic, global consensus donald trump says the Global Financial crisis. In 2010, forecasters thought that the Global Economy can use a would generate growth 3. 2 percent. This number declined the low three percent in 2014 and now it is around 2. 4 percent. In all likelihood, this pandemic will have a long shelf life over Global Growth expectations. Now, this policy authorities provided an economic response to the crisis. This response is specific but of course sooner or later there will be a heel. That deal will be in much higher debt levels and much higher decisions and its going to be important, governments to basically try to control the spread of this when the time comes and positive frameworks to basically reach sustainable levels of debt. This is an important risk you need to Pay Attention to. If it. [inaudible] this crisis so far has not led to the type of systemic Financial Stress you saw in previous episodes of these recessions but we shouldnt deceiveourselves. So soon after the Global Financial crisis that there might be repercussions associated with these especially of these economies by the index. Policy priorities are clear. In the short term healthy economy is key andthis will require supporting Healthcare Systems , helping Global Growth and eating the idea to keep the economy afloat and supporting the communities in intelligentways. Policies globally are also difficult and in this context we went to those economies that will open economies unilaterally in their desperate times we are facing now area if the crisis relates policymakers need to move forward and put in place policies for sustained longterm growth. They have developed a number of important basis. Theres only discussion about what is urgent and what is important read that urgent policy issues here, in the context of the shortterm and there are typically important policy priorities that we need to think about the aftermath of the pandemic. And they are institutions and government practices are going to bedifficult. Improving investment transparency to attract the necessary goals to support activity moving forward. Overall, alternating policy globally to address global challenges is key. Including those related to Global Public health and providing the necessary formation in these types of challenges emerge. Global trade and Financial Systems also experiencing headaches, multilateral agreements to push forward and agreeable and basically more friendly trading system and Financial System necessary to establish. It sustained the biggest probability of emerging and adjusting themselves. In this context its going to be important to address the challenges associated with climatechange. So like we saw during the Global Financial crisis, there is a discussion about the shape of the recovery. Numerous shapes have been proposed. The be shaped, ushaped, the vshaped. This cruciate recovery. I think this debate is useful to simplify the kind of specificity that we are thinking about as global economies trouble with the pandemic. Lets make no mistake about the nature of therecovery. Its going to be a painful one and policymakers need to provide immediate comprehensive responses. And think through how they are going to work through it eventually. Thank you. Thank you ayhan. Im hoping everybody can see the whole panel at this time. I am a david wessel director of the Hutchinson Center at brookings. Im joined by my colleague eswar prasad and he splits his time between brookings and cornell which is why you have cornell in the background in case you are wondering and joyce chang whose head of Global Research at j. P. Morgan. You can tell from her backdrop. She only has one employer and brahma Sangafowa Coulibaly who you met at the beginning of our program who is the president of Economic Development at brookings is going to join us as well , given his interest in africa and id like to start with joy and joyce, were interested in whether your view of the World Economy matches the one that i ayhan laid out and what you see in emerging markets. In talking about your recent report i saw powerful growth rebounds in the emerging markets. What we know in ayhans presentation is the diverse set of markets, latin america is different from africa which is different from china. So how do you see theworld and particularly how do you see it differently than the world bank . Thank you david for those questions and thank you to the Brookings Institution for the invitation and for annex a report. Let me just start with the first question that he brought up is why is there such a disconnect between main street and wall street and then i will go into the emerging markets discussion. And the first thing i would say its just that this time around compared to the Global Financial crisis we had an immediate proactive response from all of the Central Banks , developed countries and emerging market Central Banks and if you look at the size of the expansion of the Balance Sheet, we estimate that it is about 20 percent of gdp. If you compare that to what happened during theGlobal Financial crisis , that was about six percent of gdp so you expanded the Bank Balance Sheet by more than three times what we saw in the financial crisis. At the same time ifyou look at how low Interest Rates are right now , we estimate that 70 percent of global Government Debt has a yield of 50 basis points or less. So youve got negative yielding that, then you have basically zero yielding that for 70 percent of the market and thats pushed money into the equity markets. At the same time market liquidity is moving forward here so youve got to be careful going to have this result return in volatility. We estimate liquidity is still about 60 percent weaker than it was below in the market that what it was prepandemic. So thats the first thing id say about the disconnect between main street and wall street is we see that Balance Sheet that has expanded by 3 trillion area you see on a buying spree of epic proportionshere. But let me turn to the Growth Outlook and the growth forecast and we do agree very much with ayhan this is the largest supply in 70 years, thirdlargest and 120 years and we have advanced economy contracting by four percent and in an emerging market, you can take out china because we had China Growing one of the few countries growing positively two percent and youve got a contraction in the order of six percent or more in the emerging Market Countries so i would say that we do see a rebound because the first half of the year we had about a 16 percent annualized drop in gdp. So when you turn everything off youre going to get a rebound. This is the easy part of the recovery and i would say its not a complete recovery with respect to gdp but at the level of gdp at the end of the year we think it will be about four Percentage Points below where it was prepandemic so youve got these shaped numbers that are going to be printing we see 20 percent after gdp in the second half but if you lookat where we are with respect to gdp, the level of gdp , still four percent but before where we were a prepandemic and its the income loss, product loss, productivity losses are going to be very large and longlasting damage so youve got another one or two months where the data points coming out are going to look quite good but this is going to be trickier in the Fourth Quarter of the year because many of these income supports will begin to be lost and what are we left with . Were left with a deficit where estimating at 13. 8 percent of gdp, highest in 80 years area where looking at Public Sector debt of 15 to 20 Percentage Points higher and we would break that down a third lower growth. And were looking at in the emerging markets, really 3 different scenarios for emergingmarkets. Mine, if were in recovery right now thats what korea and taiwan are doing better so the more Asian Countries are faringbetter. If you take a look at latin america, were looking at nine percent contraction or for latin america and this is where the pandemic is not peaked yet. This is where we are seeing really some of the biggest losses that will take place and then you have the subsaharan african countries, some of the highly stressed where there is forgiveness or all these official relief measures that hav