No welcome to todays program u. S. China and pandemic in 1951 classic the day vrap stood still we were visited by an alien spacecraft in human form with a very sobering message. The movie concludes with World Leaders pondering their choice. It would be wonderful to believe whether in the form of a Global Pandemic or threat from outer space of the world would end differently but by the looks of things the rivalries and disputes will only grow certainly magnified in the time of the pandemic and they are likely to continue accelerating preexisting patterns and competition. Nowhere are those tensions more evident than u. S. Tensions with the rise in russia and a decline in china exerting themselves regionally and globally. It may well be that these three powers will be working by the current pandemic and to paraphrase Alexander Bonn off could it be an opportunity for growth in the sense of all the ability by three leaders focused on their own internal politics make us more not less eager to assert themselves competitively. In this case that assertion is part of the dynamic triangle where the u. S. Can align with one russia or china and played against the other. The china Russia Partnership is a good deal more than an axis of convenience and one of the principle pieces in that relationship is an effort to check u. S. Implements regionally and globally. All of this seems to me present a very grim picture and a list of issues from hong kong to ukraine to uyghurs to electionyear south china sea. Two afghan to taiwan will make your head spin. It makes you wonder what might exist for episodic corporation between the u. S. And russia and the u. S. And china. Every russia and china expert i talked to roll their eyes at the very mention of the prospect for any fundamental change in relations with washington. Will anything change depending on how the wheel turns and november . Who would russia and china want to to see as the next president and why . As usual more questions than answers and or truly we have three extraordinary folks here to answer them. Evan feigenbaum at the carnegie where he oversees research in washington beijing and between 2001 and 2009 he helped reposition the dealings with south Asian Central asia and china at the time. Eugene rumer director of carnegies russia and Eurasia Program is a former National Intelligence officer for russia eurasia and Susan Thornton is currently senior fellow at Yale Law School and former assistant secretary for east asia. I feature can you do, email us at press office or tweet us at carnegie and dow using the carnegie connect. So having the virtual space, is over to you. Thank you darren and it is a pleasure to be with you. I just want to start of the u. S. China relationship. I will get it had one of the company from my vantage point, the relationship is basically in freefall. After about 25 years, im having trouble saying before. I think the corvette is really a change in the relationship between economic and security and i say that because as you go back to the modern inception of the u. S. China relationship. Richard nixon, february 1972. Paging. There was a point in time when the u. S. And china were fighting a boxy work inside it was still climbing out of the mass hysteria culture revolution. So from the very inception of the relationship. They had military differences, clashing security concept an obvious difference of political system and ideology. Within 30 plus years where chinese communism and american constitutionalism have repeatedly clashing collided. What began to change over time, was that the path of economic integration open up between into a vertically after china came into the world, trade in 20 oh one, our relationship is in care increasingly characterized group capital, people, technology and data. The idea that many people have but not the economic integration would make the security and political differences disappear like magic rather economic integration would mitigate the effects of that security competition. What is happened rather than that, its actually getting worse. As you said in the south, the taiwan and the south china sea. All around in jeopardy they are enormously economically and 700 billiondollar trading. Hundred billion dollars of u. S. Direct investments to china. Theres only 5 5,660,000,000,000 in chinese deal flow notice standing that, security competition intensifies. But here is the thing. Its not just that it is intensifying. Economic relationships are being reflected back through the prism of the security competition. Because the security is just beginning delayed into everything else. And that really to my mind is the change that we have had over the last three or four years. We just three quick examples. If you look at close of people, flows of data, loss of technology. In all of those areas, the National Security frame the u. S. And china have on each other, as has some lighting this flows that could be integrate. Some people for instance. If the United States now has a new set of visa power that are designed to make it harder for Chinese Students and scholars in Science Technology engineering and mathematics come here. And study in area through degree program. His Foundational Technology because those technologies, things like Artificial Intelligence are increasingly and same thing on data. There is no debate about whether to ban the app tiktok. Very popular with teenagers and younger people make videos. Because the data including the personal data goes back to a company. What is really happening is its not that the security tensions are new for the things that they are now being perfected, where its going is towards the integration that will help longterm and enduring effects. We can talk about because its way to catch a lot of third countries situation between those two. Fascinating partnership. At least with those instruments, they seem to drive it apart. I am delighted to be in such a distinguished company. I think you will see some familiar names and what i am about to say with what evan said so eloquently. Its accepted now that the relationship between russia and the United States is at its worst since who knows when. In the past 30 years since the cold war ended. It is a major milestone. We thought it would really transform the relationship. But in one respect, i would say that the situation wherein is literally not that different. Although once again, it is at its lowest point. The following in the footsteps of previous postcold war administrations but essentially when in circles and cycles try to fix the relationships on a high note starting out on a high note and ending on a very limited spring and its been at the lowest point since the cold war. So immediately prior to the trump administration, the obama demonstration began the relationship and 29. They started partnership in 2009 and modernization. Im not going to go in to detail in this but the relationship ended in 2016 and 17th at the lowest point since the cold war. Before that, the Bush Administration tried to form a relationship and early in 2001, announced a new partnership. Yet in 2009 once again, going backwards was at its lowest point after the war between russia and georgia. In the Clinton Administration essentially follow the same pattern starting on a high note in 1993 and ending on a very low note in the beginning of 2001. If you remember the since he was a state department at the time. I think it is fair to say that 30 years of bilateral relationship since the end of the cold war, we perceive and ask effectively, and dealing with russia on the issues of three assumptions. Our hopes rather. When was that russia would reform itself to become a country is not dissimilar from us in a sense. Democratic with an open political system. The market and economy. The security architecture. And that we the United States in cooperation with our allies have discomforted the really has not happened. In effect russia has failed to meet our expectations on all three of those fields. I would say that it makes it very difficult point in the bilateral relationship is that after 2014, and a food crisis in ukraine with ukraine on the breakdown in relationship between moscow and washington. Its hard say those who can no longer live, Sharon Picard about what it really essential in this relationship. What is at stake for us. I heard him say that you cant talk about what is at stake for aspirated and in china, what others are talking about the relationship with asia. I think the agenda with russia is considerably smaller soup should be asking ourselves questions that have been almost from proverbial in our old domestic conversations. I would send the issues that we should be focusing on where when they really affect our core fundamental interests. Where can we do deals with russia. Because after all, going to have to be doing deals with russia. In decades to come in years to come. And as i see them there absolutely critical for bilateral relationship in the years and decades to come probably. So i would think about strategic stability. We are approaching possible. The framework from the soviet american competition in the area of control. Thats practically gone. It was like the renewal of the treaties, very unlikely. And please book about it just a day or two ago. We are approaching a point where we will eat in hundred street arms race and Company Technologies that can the strategic stability and destabilizing. The second area that i want to focus on his military relationship. Our military and the Russian Military operating close vicinity of the boxee and certainly in the middle east. Managing the relationship often times very confined. Aerospace and sees essential for the stability and stability of europe and other regions. Gov. Ron desantis think, which look at that we have applied in our relationship with russia. Laylay and has been reduced to sanctions. Russians do something so if they dont do something, and its about time that we ask ourselves is that enough. That really the only two that we can apply in dealing with the country that spans the good part of europe and asia. And has the ability to wipe out the United States. Just full of a switch. So i would say we easily pick up our diplomatic situation in the years to come. And the idea that maybe we will leave the stage and really with that, the relationship will change fundamentally. We need to deal with it. Not as we wanted to be. But as it is. I want to return to the q a. Theres the issue of guidelines. Because to the issues of what is really with the respective china and russia as well. In a great to be with you. I want to talk a little bit about how china is the u. S. And how china views russia. I would just like to make the point that china has been waiting for many years for the u. S. To turn sites on it and be concerned about chinas lives. I think at the beginning of the 21st century, china had expected actually because of its size and the u. S. Had this position. In Chinese College cold war thinking that the u. S. When in time come to focus on china as an external threat. And probably pleasantly surprised that in the period of the george w. Bush and ministration, did not come to pass. The s became preoccupied with the Counter Terrorism efforts in the global crisis. They see this as part of a structural inevitability. George w. Bush and Obama Wouldve liked to have pork with china more on various International Issues with china was already at that point to invest in Global Public goods. It was focused on developing a its economy. The technet strategic opportunity. They coined the term peaceful rise to make people think that it was not interested in being externally aggressive. I think with the advent of donald trump, the chinese thought they could initially work with him. But they could do deals and wasnt valued based in his approach but what they failed to detect was a really wasnt interested in the substance. He was very much pronto changing his beauty didnt want to be constrained. Made the relationship very uncomfortable. They dont like that kind of unpredictability and chaos. Especially when theyre trying to manage their internal pressures of which there are many. So think the bottom line is that with the an event of truck and the sort of acrosstheboard bipartisan hardline tour china, they have exhausted the view that the u. S. Has determined that is going to be part of the u. S. National to contain china and block the advancement. I think it doesnt really matter whether or not trump is reelected if provided is elected. The chinese now, it would be very difficult to dislodge this view inside china that the u. S. In the sense is on this sort of posture of blocking chinas advancement read i think that the way that china is thinking about russia at the moment. We can talk more about this and i would be curious tear ledeen hennepin think. This is in my view, the u. S. China or the china russia, is based mainly on two factors in the first one is this economic driver right has really become more prominent in the last couple of decades and where think the chinese have now become a kind of imbalanced driver of the train, but its a bit uncomfortable probably for russia but china has a lot of cards to play in the economic relationship between the two powers and so i think that will continue to play out and continue to create both synergies and tensions in the relationship. I think the second big driver of course is a convergence in the attitudes of the two governments about what the weston the u. S. Is doing. They dont like a lot of the positions that the u. S. Is taking and they dont like a lot of things we are doing in the international space. And i think with respect to this driver, russias more in the lead in china is more of a follower. I think china sees russia is more of a risk taker. It is kind of backandforth with the west. They hang back. Theyre a little bit of uncover with russias more aggressive ways but i would say that i think the chinese are are learning from russia. And are starting to step in the two this arena. This may be something that we should be watching. I think the bottom line is this is not really a natural alliance. The u. S. Should not be taking action but pushed towards one another. That is something that ive been increasingly concerned about in recent years. Which of the u. S. We doing about all this. Trust me first to china. Im in 20 most of my time there. And jean is already spoken eloquently with what the u. S. Will do with russia. I agree completely with his observations. I think the u. S. Is in danger of misunderstanding is china. We want to see this is an ideological and military competition. On a cold war cleanup kind of thing but i think were failing to appreciate the degree to which it is an economic competition. And were failing in our prescriptions responding and responding to that challenge. And evan got to the essence of what our responses. To what we are seeing in part china. It speaks to the sort of this place emphasis on security in terms of how we are saying our economic competitiveness. So i think all in all, the u. S. Needs to do a lot more thinking about what is domestic prescriptions will be that will best fit to pursue challenge in these two countries are proposing. They really need to be in reenergized and to be a lot more realistic and a lot more thoughtful. In order to sort of pursue whats in the interest of the u. S. Going forward. Obviously the u. S. Because a lot of things that they need to work with russia on in the coming decades. The same is true for china. Everything about the current moment that people are being affected by, the economic fallout from a pandemic in the pandemic, these are the two areas that are basically double crisis for the world. In the u. S. And chinas certainly be calling the resources and efforts to combat those two things. I just stopped there. My first question to the three of you in reference to the pandemic. At the moscow center, talked about the coronavirus in all three powers. When judgment, how has russia and china cope with the pandemic. It was merged in a better position to exploit weather is to explode with respect to covid19. What has been lost from ours. Eugene i think is meant the net loss to russia. And we are seeing evidence about immediately just the last couple of days brief i dont know if our audiences are familiar with the Russian Far East things that are happening in our government over our eastern region, was arrested in an unprecedented charges heinous crimes committed allegedly 15 years ago. Were seeing something weve not seen in quite some time. Spontaneous demonstration and the regions capital read in support of this government who apparently is not quite the guy in moscow, that a committed democrat. Seven argue that this is the situation is aggravated by the general satisfaction with the governments performance. And in this pandemic in russia is been in this difficult area for quite some time. If im not mistaken for the past six years or so. The standard of living has declined. And is made bear, the major deficiencies. And the ability to deal with it based on these crises enough that russians have a lot of expectations in terms of Government Support these days but this type think is probably not the right chemistry but the contextual aggravating condition to apparently 10000 people, and via the internet to go out into the streets in protest these criminal actions. So reservoir theres a conversation on russians. About the shortcomings and the lack of a safety net. It was quite a blow to putins claim of stability and better conditions in securities and so forth. So a certain kind of legitimate crisis for princetons management the state which is perceived to be the redeeming the russian people from the terrible virus. Eugene while certainly. And especially essentially to extend his term in office to 2036. Everybody considers it a life presidency. Our president for life. But there is a stark contrast between conditions in the country and had attempt to establish the legitimacy through a popular not re