Good afternoon, everybody. Im happy to welcome our audience members and our special guest speakers to the common good. We have an extremely fascinating guest today and one of our very favorite political analyst to operate as our moderator. So we will get right to the conversation. Got a very unusual phenomenon in the 2020 president ial campaign this year. Hugely influential slice of the Republican Party, including longtime conservatives and moderates, have broken with reelecting the leader of their of thety, the president united states, donald trump. This is part of the broader never trumped rebellion that began four years ago with the largely sidelined cadre of appalled republicans, but which has transformed in recent weeks into a potentially Disruptive Force in this years president ial race. Groups such as the Lincoln Project and Republican Voters against trump are using guerrilla tactics and clever ads and then they already be making a big difference this year. We are thrilled to have one of those leaders of these efforts, who has decades of experience as an active voice in republican politics, originally as the Vice President and Communications Director and later with her own Successful Communications firm. More recently, sarah has served on the board of all cabin republicans, but became a never trump her in 2016. She is now the executive director of Republican Voters against trump as well as republicans for the rule of law. She has also headed up defending democracy together, which advocated for trumps impeachment. To help us out, we are really honored, im so happy to have you, a very good friend, political analyst, susan to host and moderate this conversation. Susan is a new yorkbased republican strategist who has advised dozens of candidates in new york and elsewhere, including Rudy Giuliani for whom she served as deputy commissioner, and also an advisor to governor andrew cuomo. Of course many of you will be familiar with her from her many appearances on msnbc. We thank you both so much for being with the common good today, now i pass the baton to susan to lead our conversation. Thank you, susan. Susan thank you so much, patricia. And sarah, thank you for all you do in fighting the good fight for and support republicans. I get to say that because i am a moderate. Byently there was a story susan glaser. On thing that stood out was, she , and you stande up and like, lets stop talking, lets do something. So you did. The tell us where you are in this process. Sound morekes it cinematic than it was. As i recall, is actually ill crystal who was talking and i started interrupting him, like why dont we do something besides just sitting in these sads with a bunch of republicans, and figure out how to fight back. I will admit to some naivety early on. I really thought that republicans the Republican Party writ large, Susan Collins, lisa murkowski, the lindsey grahams, that they were going to be real guardrails and that it was going to be a tough four years, but i thought we were weto find a way to were larry hogan was open about the fact that he considered it. But none of it came to fruition. 2020, one going into thing i did early on was say, everyone is asking, what happened to the Republican Party . What is going on . My background in communications led me to believe that we can find out. What i call reluctant truck voters, people who had voted for doing trump agree hes very bad job. Ultimately what would persuade them to stop supporting donald trump. Which brings us to this moment where, the thing that i found, after doing three years of these focus groups is, the thing that people found most persuasive was not these abstracts are policy scandals, its not the ads theyre using and things like that. Its real republicans just like them, expressing the anxiety that they all talk about having around donald trump. Not just that they think he should get off twitter, they think he is erratic. They think he is a problematic character. Dates think he has good qualities, things i probably would not give him credit for having, but just in talking to for example, they would say i voted for him, but i felt like i needed to take a shower, or, i went home and cried. Im like, ok, that is a person who can be persuaded to not vote for donald trump again in 2020. Thought about how the personal stories really moved people. And i thought, how do you build a product people who voted for trump and 2016, talking about why they wont do it again in 2020. So we really built Republican Voters against trump with that research in mind. It was hard at first, and im sorry if im just going on about it. It took us probably three or four months to get the first 100, because people sort of didnt know what we were doing, people were nervous about going on camera and expressing how they felt. But once we got the first 100 and we launched, now they are just pouring in. We have almost 500 and we got like 30 today so far. Theyre just coming in in droves. I feel like theres a lot of republicans who havent been doing what ive been doing the last three and a half years, which is constantly talking about why this is wrong, and theyve been sort of struggling with it in their own communities, and now they want to get it off their chest. Were getting close to 500 of these testimonials and were about to spin 15 million in the swing states showing these real stories of soft Trump Supporters to see if we can knock off, even if its just 3 . Donald trump one, everybody three states by 77,000 votes. Thats fewer people than are packed into an nfl game. If we can pull 1 , 3 , and frankly, i think we can do better than that, then we can give joe biden a landslide victory. And i think joe biden needs a landslide victory, because i think thats probably the only way to get republicans to sort of on the fact that this was a mistake, this whole thing was a mistake. I definitely want to get into the nuts and bolts of the campaign, but for those people doing the testimonials, and i know ive gotten this question asked a lot, people say youre not happy with the Republican Party, why not become a democrat . Mean, i would become an independent before i would become a democrat. Im not particularly tribal about politics. I have a set of things that i believe, and a lot of them just aligned more closely with what traditional republicans believe. I believe that free markets are good and have lifted millions of people out of poverty. I think personal responsibility is a virtue that we should cultivate in our society, whatever. I think we should not allow runaway debts and deficits. I was here first. Up after being spinning most of his life as a democrat, and suddenly saying im here to hijack the publican party. I cant believe people just decided to roll over and say we dont believe in free trade anymore . The experience has been really wild. Its like the invasion of the body snatchers. Im not going to change that. That being said, any day i will say taxfor people who cuts and judges as some kind of reason for donald trump, there are not enough in the world to allow for person who is actively subverting the foundations of democracy and the rule of law. Those things take precedent. I believe in liberal democracy is more than i believe in marginal tax rates. I believe one is much more important than the other. Its not that im going to going become a democrat. Im going to fight for the things i believe in, and at this moment, that means fighting donald trump. The nuts andinto bolts. When we look at issue can and there was a turnout problem for Hillary Clinton because she just so underperformed barack obama. When we look at wisconsin, sure, donald trump im sorry, michigan, donald trump did do better than romney. Whats interesting is, in wisconsin, donald trump received 2000 year votes than romney. Romney. Fewer votes than it really was the democrat candidate that kind of blew it there. The pennsylvania, and that is your stomping grounds, is a whole different category. Because Hillary Clinton basically came just shy of obama intes of barack 2012. So it really was trump finding these voters, we call them the forgotten voters. Of 240,000 more votes than mitt romney. That is huge. I think people mistake the difference between michigan and wisconsin versus pennsylvania, and i think it is that pennsylvania stock that trump is trying to duplicate, not just in pennsylvania, but in other places. Youre absolutely right. This is how donald trump pulled a rabbit out of a hat in 2016. He found voters that werent really didnt vote otherwise. Is something that comes up in focus groups all the time. Its such a blind spot for politicos, which i have people sell the time, why did you vote for donald trump . Well, hes a great businessman. I watch them for eight years on the apprentice. I always forget that he lived in peoples living rooms for eight years as this carefully curated, confident businessman and fired Gilbert Gottfried or whatever. He became this vision for people of like what a decisive businessman is, and those people who maybe werent formally involved in politics but were fans of his came out of the woodwork and voted for him. The reason im skeptical that he can duplicate that strategy is that, number one, weve seen that playbook. Democrats are not leaving anything on the table in terms of turnout this time. The differentof word, im going to say cocky, and overconfident. They were way too overconfident in 20, thinking that Hillary Clinton had it in the bag. I constantly am thinking right trips to wisconsin. They were spending money in arizona, which i would agree with right now, but i wish they had spent at arizona money in michigan. There are just things that were totally aft on the table. Number one, the democrats will not make that mistake again. And then number two, there were a lot of people, independence broke heavily for donald trump. Think thearound i independents are going to break against donald trump in the polling shows that. Donald trump has to run on a record now to be he cant just run around saying im going to build a wall with mexico and they are going to pay for it. Has personal consequences for peoples lives. Their lives are not better than they were four years ago. We are all living in our basement not living in them, but working in them. The personal consequences to their lives now, if you ask the reagan question, are you better off today than you were four years ago . The answer for most people is no. I dont think hes going to be able to generate the enthusiasm this time around for people to shake things up. I think people are more likely to say i would like somebody who knows what they are doing because things are really problematic right now. I would think that suburban women, especially, are your prime targets. Especially where we are today, because nothing took down donald trump yet. Charlotte didnt do it, mueller didnt do it, impeachment didnt do it. Somehow i think that suburban women, trying to figure out if they should send their children to school, and listening to donald trump is a tough choice. We saw some of this in 2018, but what are your thoughts on 2020 . Just on that 2018 point, which is a really good one, i completely agree. I think the story is women. Not quite that, because also its coupled with, if there is high africanamerican turnout, coupled with the total crating thedefection of women to Republican Party, i cant think of a stupider mistake that may. The suburbs absolutely means women. One of the things i think is such an Interesting Data point on 2018, you look at someone whos in a place where donald trump won by seven points in 2016. So in 2018, she wins by four points, which means that she had to have picked up people who voted for donald trump. Now she is in a very vulnerable seat here in 2020, and i dont know whether she will hold onto it or not, but i do think it shows just how many people, and i will tell you, i do all these focus groups, you focus on women and you say you are only looking is filled with women who voted for him and 2016 by 2018 there were so disgusted and so horrified be i him, they couldnt wait to go vote for the democrat in between 18. I saw that shift happen more or less in real time. The gender gap turned into a gender chasms 2020 has approached. Women,t collegeeducated but workingclass women. He has an 11 point line so far with noncollege white women. Each cant haul those women in those more rural areas if he cant hold those women in those , itsural areas, and also such a simple challenge to them. In the middle of a pandemic, health crisis, economic and racial crisis, do you think theres another 100,000 people who are like, i love what im seeing and i want to go out and vote for this guy again . So we know that those suburban women, especially, are gettable, as you call them. But can they be turned away by what would be perceived as being a too liberal vp choice by joe biden . Thats a really good question. Heres what i think. I think there was a reason donald trump really wanted to run against bernie sanders. Thats the only way he was going to hold on to the suburbs. I actually think if he did run against bernie sanders, i dont know in this particular environment how things would change, but in the suburbs, he would have been able to hold onto a lot more suburban voters. I think this is a tricky one for joe biden. Normally i would say a Vice President ial picked doesnt matter that much, but, of course, with his advanced age, i think it means considerably more than normal. And also, i think theres a lot of people who are looking for the Vice President ial picked as a signal for which way the party is going to go. The Democratic Party is having a similar struggle to the publican party. They have to hold off their more populist far flank. If joe biden pick somebody who is perceived to be extremely liberal, i think it gives the republicans something to feed off him about. I think theres some room for attrition with some of those suburban voters. That being said, when im talking to people and focus groups, if you want some of the videos, the testimonials, people say i would vote for a tomato can or a tuna fish sandwich. Theres a lot of animate objects people say that would vote for. So there is at least some percentage that i dont think is insignificant that are completely out, they would be happy to vote for joe biden and whoever he picks as Vice President , but i dont think it is meaningless. I think it does have meaning who he chooses. Choiceollow up on the vp and how he should be running his campaign, we saw some polling , there is this talk hopemaybe he should just to run the board. I happen to think that his best strategy is to get to 270. Do you think there is a danger of him following too much in the Hillary Clinton playbook, looking to expand for 300 plus which, if hes 270, goes for that bigger number, he could really start hurting those there were 2 of the people we talk to. Jonathan martin in the New York Times and democratic operatives pushing to get involved in texas, i wrote a piece saying do not do that. Texas is 30 million people, joe biden out raising donald from the last two month, way behind in the cash on hand, has a little more than what trump has, the democrats think they can press advantage and go for political realignment is too far. That is north carolina, if you are going to invest in a massive state go to florida where fox news polling has him down by 9 points and he is dying with seeing years. That is a play. There is a risk where democrats dont have the same resources because they went through a tough primary at the same time. I will tell you one thing. I would accept texas, 300 million in the couch cushion is a different story but at a fundraising disadvantage, got to play to win and wisconsin and michigan, if you want to stretch play, two senate races, they cant do the same thing, should be something we factor in. Tell people run like you are 10 points behind and you would be putting your money, to get to 270. It is a difference with republicans, i got a lot of grief from democrats when i said dont go to texas. Who wants to listen to this republican, why we shouldnt press the advantage. Trump is a nexus essential threat to democracy, i will take no risk, no room for gambling. Get to 270. All he has to do is pick up florida. If he just focused on florida that gets him over 270. You mentioned georgia where there are Competitive Senate races. How do you balance the need to destroy trump and really knock him down versus the need to hold onto a Senate Majority republican majority . Is it worth leaving the Senate Majority . If donald trump goes down does the senate go down with him and is it worth it . Good question and a tough one. I have a soft spot for Susan Collins who led the fight to repeal dont ask dont tell. The moderate republicans, all get run out by donald trump. We made a decision not to do senate races. We are focused on donald trump. There is absolutely value in the Republican Party learning a lesson what they have done to donald trump. The key is for joe biden to run up historic margins and i think i may be fond of Susan Collins but not martha makes sally. Some of those of joe biden wins by enough i dont think it is bad for the Republican Party to learn the lesson you nominate a guy like donald trump he decimates the party. That is what you get for it so i am of two mind and decide we wanted people to participate in our program who were not necessarily going to vote for democrats. I am prolife, never vote for a democrat for but i wont vote for donald trump. We want our tent to be big enough to accommodate those people so you cant put together that kind of coalition if you are also doing the senate. We want people who will vote for tom tillis that wont vote for donald trump. We want those people too. There is a strategic answer and an emotional answer. Host we ta