Transcripts For CSPAN2 The Bubble That Never Pops 20240712 :

We are going to go ahead and get started now. Folks are still arriving, which is fine. But we want to get started because we have a fantastic program for you and not a lot of time this hour is going to fly by. The book is a fantastic read and i think folks especially in the United States going to find that controversial and that is the great thing about the book. It doesnt generate a conversation that i may not be worth reading. But this is a Glass Half Full story of chinas economy and the management of the Financial System and that is offered at a time when u. S. China relations are declining and attacks from all different corners in the United States of the system are growing the business argument that the economy and how it damages the economy is incompatible with the International System and as a result of the u. S. And others need to reduce their exposure to these unique risks. The book tries to answer the question how did china managed to do it, to continue to grow without a major financial crisis. And can they keep it up. Im going to turn the floor over to tom in just a moment. He will introduce his book and then we would hear from several commentators, all experts on the Financial System in their own right. Then we will open things up to discussion with our online audience. You have ways to submit questions either through chat or email, to our staff who will forward the questions and i will help moderate that conversation for the remainder of the program. We were expecting a small audience for a topic like this with a room that can accommodate about 500 folks, but we are overflowing. We have almost a thousand people register for the event. So no matter what, folks will be able to watch this now or online in just a bit. Im going to turn things over. Palm is the bloomberg chief economist prior to joining he worked as the economic correspondent for the wall street journal, as an adviser to the effect of the imf and policy analyst at the British Treasury and european commissi commission. He is also an author of understanding the Economic Indicators that bills deeply into the chinese statistics. Thank you so much for writing this book, and i really look forward to your presentation and the conversation this morning. Over to you. Thank you very much. Just give me a minute while i share my presentation. Is that working . That looks fantastic. Its never been more important than now that all of us understand the intersection between chinas economy, the Financial System, the business, the leadership, security, and i cant think of anyone in the world that can bring all these pieces together more comprehensively than csis, so im delighted that csis post this talk and thank you to the team there that are hoping to pull this all together. So as i prepare to launch my book, i was thrilled to be doing it for the csis. When you do a book launch in person, the audience is typically bear and i think the other kind of moral obligation is to buy a copy of the book. When you do a book launch over the internet perhaps the sense of moral obligation is there. So it is a mechanism to try to ensure the maximum sales from this event. Before i start my presentation i would like everyone to raise their hand and repeat i. , of course here insert your own name, immediately after the presentation i will order a copy of china the bubble that never pops. That is the compulsory part of the presentation. Also a part of the pledge, and i am not an unreasonable man, the second part is voluntary but feel free to follow along if you want to. To also buy one for each of your friends and relatives and i will also be they positive review on amazon. Okay. With that, let me jump into my presentation. I lived in china for 11 years from 2007 through 2018. So that entire time, it was a consistent threat of pessimism even running through the western view of what was happening in china. Yes it looks impressive but its a little bit beneath the surface and there are problems that are too high. China will have a financial crisis. Leadership cant execute a. The state sector is too vague to enter the medium Growth Prospect isnt that strong. As a middle income track. Theres a democratic problem and yet here we are in 2020 as the bubble hasnt popped. So in putting pen to paper for my bucket was to try to understand why. What are the hidden sources of resilience in the chinese economy, how does china continue to define the pessimistic predictions of callouts and how does that shape the way that we think about engaging with china going forward. I want to touch on four areas where i dont think we have the story wrong, but we have the emphasis in the wrong place and i want to talk in particular of that reform. This chart tells you the way in which most and many chinese economists think about the biggest risk to the chinese economy and changing the ratio of debt to gdp. In 2008 the debt to gdp was around 140 . Fast forward to 2015, and at that level is left to 250 . If we cannot find any other country that has taken on as much debt as china as quickly as china has but we can find a number of countries that took on significant debt is left that and still had a financial crisis, korea in 1997 took on a lot of debt, they had a financial crisis. The u. S. In 2006, 2007 took on a lot of debt, almost as much as china and they still had the shock is the great financial crisis. And if we look at it deeper into the Financial System, while if we think about the borrowers we have the zombie enterprises, Real Estate Developers, we have local governments building roads and if we look at the lenders side we have the growth of the Banking Sector gutting the rules and regulations and growing faster than they should be. So if you put all of that together it looks like an extremely risky picture thats whawith the mrs. Is something really important about the financial crisis have something really important about the Financial System and that is what is happening on the liability side of the banks Balance Sheet. Remember the financial crisis doesnt start on the asset side of the Balance Sheet. Lehman brothers didnt fall over because it had too many investments in the mortgagebacked securities. The banks didnt fall over because they had too much exposure to the crony capitalist corporations. Financial crises start on the liability side of the bank Balance Sheet. Because banks run out of funding. Laymen felt over to the money markets because they didnt want to fund any more and because Foreign Investors pulled their money out of the country. What does that mean for china . China has an extremely high savings rate it has control on moving money out of the country. What that means i is there is a continuous play a lot of funds. The deposit banks continue to grow and that means that funding is very secure and so even as problems on the asset side of the Balance Sheet increase and i assure there are hitting bad loans on the sheets, the trigger isnt there. The leadership to execute the reform of the economy and on the Financial System here you can see the previous leader, the current leader you can see both of them applauding. One of my observations from watching the leadership meetings is the ability to applaud politely for the sustained period of time is a key requirement to make it to the top of the leadership. If you cant applaud politely for a sustained period of time, youre not going to make it onto the standing committee. That is the subject but i think maybe we should pay a bit more attention to. More seriously, theres been a consistent narrative about reform and its been a narrative about reform failure. He is too muches too much of an to push through the reforms and too conservative to push through the needed liberalization. And i think thats narrative blinds us to some significant progress that they have been able to make. Lets talk about the instruments of control in th and the econom. The Exchange Rate and the Interest Rate. The Exchange Rate is the price of the chinese goods relative to the foreign goods and the Interest Rate it as the price of money. Theres reallthere is really noe important in driving efficiency in the economy and getting it right. If you go back to 2003, the Exchange Rate and Interest Rates were managed by the government. And if you swing today the Exchange Rate is now close to the fair value and moves substantially by Market Forces and on the Interest Rate up quite so much progress has been made that Interest Rates today are substantially more markets there than they were five, ten, 15 years ago. Because we be without leadership through a kind of red mist, i think we are able to recognize the important progress they do make on the reform. It also means we dont pay sufficient attention to the ability to significantly moved the violin managing financial risks. So here i want to talk about the agenda. In 2016, the chief economic adviser to kick off a Deleveraging Campaign. Theres a nationwide campaign to reduce risk in the chinese Financial Sector and with that, signals from the peoples bank of china knocked on the door of every single commercial bank show us your Balance Sheet and if they didnt like what they saw come either on the asset side or the liability side of the banks Balance Sheet, if they thought that thanks for taking too many risks in their lending or in terms of the source of funding they relied on, they impose meaningful punishments on the banks. I remember traveling summer 2017 speaking to a group of local banks and in this campaign that has a Deleveraging Campaign that have a meaningful impact. We see that in the idea. This shows you the shadow bank lending, the greatest part of the Financial System. Then it contracted for the better part of two years. We underestimate the leaders ability to execute on a meaningful reforms if we underestimate the chinese leaders ability to meaningfully take steps and manage risks in the Financial System. The third area that i want to talk about is the states effort. Now there there is really no aa where the contrast between the u. S. Market system and the Chinese State centered economy is more obvious and sharply drawn into state ownership. In the u. S. The private sector is a key driver of dynamism in the economy and the state sector plays a role. If there is an illustration of that. As you can see in the chart if it was an economy, it would be the thirdlargest economy in the world. The state sector is bigger than the entire german economy. Now we do that through the lens of inefficiency and corruption and that is not an incorrect way to view it. This data center is inefficient, the return on asset is much lower than the return on the Chinese Private sector but that isnt the only way to think about it and that is not the way in which their leadership think about the state sector, so lets take a step back and try to see the role of the state sector in china through the eyes of the chinese leaders. To do that, lets hear what chinas great reformer thought of mikhail gorbachev, the great reformer of the soviet union. Here is what his son said about his fathers view. My thoughts are things that gorbachev is an idiot. Why does he think that gorbachev was an idiot . One important reason is that gorbachev attempted to reform the soviet economy by taking his hands off th the levers that control of the soviet economy, and by doing so, he ultimately lost control and failed to execute on his objectives. Chinas leaders have taken a different approach. Chinas leaders have kept their hands on the levers that control the economy, the commanding banks, the oil firms, many Large Industrial firms remain stateowned into that gives a powerful leverage they can use to execute on the Development Objectives and management of the economic cycle. On the Development Objectives, chinas leaders can direct state banks and state firms to acquire technologies and put those technologies to work at enormous scale in the chinese economy bringing them closer to the frontier. On management of the economic cycle, the leaders can direct the state sector to hold onto their workers. The state sector is big and inefficient. Its a powerful tool that can be used to manage the economic cycle. The last area that i think our focus in terms of thinking about china. What we think about the media in terms of the prospect we tend to focus on the few stumbling blocks china faces, the working age population is shrinking. There is a middle income trap perhaps they would be able to innovate and a trade war that may block the access to the global market. Of these things arthese things e are real problems but they also have some significant positives working. They are so obvious. When he wrote his book the wealth of nations all the way back in 1776 so i am just going to quote briefly from what he wrote about china more than 200 years ago, two important points. The second Crucial Point from adam smith, more extensive navigation, the chinese naturally learn the art of using and constricting themselves of all of the different machines make use of and the other countries as well as the other improvements of the industry which is practicing in all of the parts of the world. As smith was right on that as well. It he was also 200 years too early. But when they open the door between china in 1978, anymore with china joined the wto in 2001, these two powerful drivers came together. In china had enormous scale in the capacity to learn from foreign technologies. But when you put these two things together, you have an extraordinary engine. The question then becomes as the engine run out of steam. It think the answer to that is no print and the reason i think that, because it comparison between china and japan, lets think about when japans economy in 1989. Japans per capita in 1989 had already caught up to that level in the United States. Javon was already on the frontier of what was possible in using technology and becoming more productive. China today, is very significantly below the United States. And for me, that means there is still significant snapshot space. I think in this decade, china will still be going. I think at this end of this decade, its entirely possible that china was to be going at three or 4 percent a year. So i wont wrap up in a second, but before i do, the return pulled two pieces together and applied them your life what has happened china in the last six months. Now covid19, is a human tragedy. It is also an economic and financial info china. The last few months, income so the wars in chinas economy, the enterprises, Real Estate Developers pretty liberal governments is all with contracted. If there was a moment with the chinese but would pop. It would be now. Their benefits slowed, and that is the moment when you would expect to see some kind of day of reckoning in the chinese economy. And of course it is not what has happened. If you can see daily activity indications and start. We built china and other economies in which you can see is that they felt but they didnt fall is other major economies. They become more quickly. There no closer to normal levels of activity than most other economies in the world. So why is that. Why didnt we see a financial crisis. In his recovery was quicker than other economies. While this brings me back to some of the senate recognized sources of strength in chinas economy. Because they are wellfunded, can afford to give forbearance to companies. They can say, you can pay us back this quarter is fine you can paste back next quarter or maybe even next year. Chinas leaders because they can all the lever of the enterprises, have a powerful cyclical instrument. If you dont let go of any of your work, maybe even hire more workers. And start investing. Because i can do that, they didnt prevent financial crisis breaking out. They can manage the downturn and shallower and recover quicker than other economies in the world. That is why i think the china is the bubble that never pops. Im going to head back to scott to hear from some of our great discussions. Thank you. Thomas scott thanks much tom. And i think you did an excellent job of summarizing your book in the overall story and really appreciate that. I like that you have a dry sense of humor but also you can make a point. I appreciate that. As you said adam smith was right. It is had very bad timing. And so he may be a very good economist but he would be a terrible investor. So now we are going to turn to our commentators. I would not call the slope murderers row. Even if they have a variety of different opinions but if youre going to form a Dissertation Committee of the best of the brightest who work on chinas economy and Financial System. This would be the group. This is a real treat to have them with us. Let me briefly introduce them and then i will turn over to each of them and allow them to offer a few minutes of commentary. Joyce chang, is the chair of Global Research at j. P. Morgan. And is one of the leading analysts on chinas economy anywhere. She is up top rankings United States<\/a> going to find that controversial and that is the great thing about the book. It doesnt generate a conversation that i may not be worth reading. But this is a Glass Half Full<\/a> story of chinas economy and the management of the Financial System<\/a> and that is offered at a time when u. S. China relations are declining and attacks from all different corners in the United States<\/a> of the system are growing the business argument that the economy and how it damages the economy is incompatible with the International System<\/a> and as a result of the u. S. And others need to reduce their exposure to these unique risks. The book tries to answer the question how did china managed to do it, to continue to grow without a major financial crisis. And can they keep it up. Im going to turn the floor over to tom in just a moment. He will introduce his book and then we would hear from several commentators, all experts on the Financial System<\/a> in their own right. Then we will open things up to discussion with our online audience. You have ways to submit questions either through chat or email, to our staff who will forward the questions and i will help moderate that conversation for the remainder of the program. We were expecting a small audience for a topic like this with a room that can accommodate about 500 folks, but we are overflowing. We have almost a thousand people register for the event. So no matter what, folks will be able to watch this now or online in just a bit. Im going to turn things over. Palm is the bloomberg chief economist prior to joining he worked as the economic correspondent for the wall street journal, as an adviser to the effect of the imf and policy analyst at the British Treasury<\/a> and european commissi commission. He is also an author of understanding the Economic Indicators<\/a> that bills deeply into the chinese statistics. Thank you so much for writing this book, and i really look forward to your presentation and the conversation this morning. Over to you. Thank you very much. Just give me a minute while i share my presentation. Is that working . That looks fantastic. Its never been more important than now that all of us understand the intersection between chinas economy, the Financial System<\/a>, the business, the leadership, security, and i cant think of anyone in the world that can bring all these pieces together more comprehensively than csis, so im delighted that csis post this talk and thank you to the team there that are hoping to pull this all together. So as i prepare to launch my book, i was thrilled to be doing it for the csis. When you do a book launch in person, the audience is typically bear and i think the other kind of moral obligation is to buy a copy of the book. When you do a book launch over the internet perhaps the sense of moral obligation is there. So it is a mechanism to try to ensure the maximum sales from this event. Before i start my presentation i would like everyone to raise their hand and repeat i. , of course here insert your own name, immediately after the presentation i will order a copy of china the bubble that never pops. That is the compulsory part of the presentation. Also a part of the pledge, and i am not an unreasonable man, the second part is voluntary but feel free to follow along if you want to. To also buy one for each of your friends and relatives and i will also be they positive review on amazon. Okay. With that, let me jump into my presentation. I lived in china for 11 years from 2007 through 2018. So that entire time, it was a consistent threat of pessimism even running through the western view of what was happening in china. Yes it looks impressive but its a little bit beneath the surface and there are problems that are too high. China will have a financial crisis. Leadership cant execute a. The state sector is too vague to enter the medium Growth Prospect<\/a> isnt that strong. As a middle income track. Theres a democratic problem and yet here we are in 2020 as the bubble hasnt popped. So in putting pen to paper for my bucket was to try to understand why. What are the hidden sources of resilience in the chinese economy, how does china continue to define the pessimistic predictions of callouts and how does that shape the way that we think about engaging with china going forward. I want to touch on four areas where i dont think we have the story wrong, but we have the emphasis in the wrong place and i want to talk in particular of that reform. This chart tells you the way in which most and many chinese economists think about the biggest risk to the chinese economy and changing the ratio of debt to gdp. In 2008 the debt to gdp was around 140 . Fast forward to 2015, and at that level is left to 250 . If we cannot find any other country that has taken on as much debt as china as quickly as china has but we can find a number of countries that took on significant debt is left that and still had a financial crisis, korea in 1997 took on a lot of debt, they had a financial crisis. The u. S. In 2006, 2007 took on a lot of debt, almost as much as china and they still had the shock is the great financial crisis. And if we look at it deeper into the Financial System<\/a>, while if we think about the borrowers we have the zombie enterprises, Real Estate Developers<\/a>, we have local governments building roads and if we look at the lenders side we have the growth of the Banking Sector<\/a> gutting the rules and regulations and growing faster than they should be. So if you put all of that together it looks like an extremely risky picture thats whawith the mrs. Is something really important about the financial crisis have something really important about the Financial System<\/a> and that is what is happening on the liability side of the banks Balance Sheet<\/a>. Remember the financial crisis doesnt start on the asset side of the Balance Sheet<\/a>. Lehman brothers didnt fall over because it had too many investments in the mortgagebacked securities. The banks didnt fall over because they had too much exposure to the crony capitalist corporations. Financial crises start on the liability side of the bank Balance Sheet<\/a>. Because banks run out of funding. Laymen felt over to the money markets because they didnt want to fund any more and because Foreign Investors<\/a> pulled their money out of the country. What does that mean for china . China has an extremely high savings rate it has control on moving money out of the country. What that means i is there is a continuous play a lot of funds. The deposit banks continue to grow and that means that funding is very secure and so even as problems on the asset side of the Balance Sheet<\/a> increase and i assure there are hitting bad loans on the sheets, the trigger isnt there. The leadership to execute the reform of the economy and on the Financial System<\/a> here you can see the previous leader, the current leader you can see both of them applauding. One of my observations from watching the leadership meetings is the ability to applaud politely for the sustained period of time is a key requirement to make it to the top of the leadership. If you cant applaud politely for a sustained period of time, youre not going to make it onto the standing committee. That is the subject but i think maybe we should pay a bit more attention to. More seriously, theres been a consistent narrative about reform and its been a narrative about reform failure. He is too muches too much of an to push through the reforms and too conservative to push through the needed liberalization. And i think thats narrative blinds us to some significant progress that they have been able to make. Lets talk about the instruments of control in th and the econom. The Exchange Rate<\/a> and the Interest Rate<\/a>. The Exchange Rate<\/a> is the price of the chinese goods relative to the foreign goods and the Interest Rate<\/a> it as the price of money. Theres reallthere is really noe important in driving efficiency in the economy and getting it right. If you go back to 2003, the Exchange Rate<\/a> and Interest Rate<\/a>s were managed by the government. And if you swing today the Exchange Rate<\/a> is now close to the fair value and moves substantially by Market Forces<\/a> and on the Interest Rate<\/a> up quite so much progress has been made that Interest Rate<\/a>s today are substantially more markets there than they were five, ten, 15 years ago. Because we be without leadership through a kind of red mist, i think we are able to recognize the important progress they do make on the reform. It also means we dont pay sufficient attention to the ability to significantly moved the violin managing financial risks. So here i want to talk about the agenda. In 2016, the chief economic adviser to kick off a Deleveraging Campaign<\/a>. Theres a nationwide campaign to reduce risk in the chinese Financial Sector<\/a> and with that, signals from the peoples bank of china knocked on the door of every single commercial bank show us your Balance Sheet<\/a> and if they didnt like what they saw come either on the asset side or the liability side of the banks Balance Sheet<\/a>, if they thought that thanks for taking too many risks in their lending or in terms of the source of funding they relied on, they impose meaningful punishments on the banks. I remember traveling summer 2017 speaking to a group of local banks and in this campaign that has a Deleveraging Campaign<\/a> that have a meaningful impact. We see that in the idea. This shows you the shadow bank lending, the greatest part of the Financial System<\/a>. Then it contracted for the better part of two years. We underestimate the leaders ability to execute on a meaningful reforms if we underestimate the chinese leaders ability to meaningfully take steps and manage risks in the Financial System<\/a>. The third area that i want to talk about is the states effort. Now there there is really no aa where the contrast between the u. S. Market system and the Chinese State<\/a> centered economy is more obvious and sharply drawn into state ownership. In the u. S. The private sector is a key driver of dynamism in the economy and the state sector plays a role. If there is an illustration of that. As you can see in the chart if it was an economy, it would be the thirdlargest economy in the world. The state sector is bigger than the entire german economy. Now we do that through the lens of inefficiency and corruption and that is not an incorrect way to view it. This data center is inefficient, the return on asset is much lower than the return on the Chinese Private<\/a> sector but that isnt the only way to think about it and that is not the way in which their leadership think about the state sector, so lets take a step back and try to see the role of the state sector in china through the eyes of the chinese leaders. To do that, lets hear what chinas great reformer thought of mikhail gorbachev, the great reformer of the soviet union. Here is what his son said about his fathers view. My thoughts are things that gorbachev is an idiot. Why does he think that gorbachev was an idiot . One important reason is that gorbachev attempted to reform the soviet economy by taking his hands off th the levers that control of the soviet economy, and by doing so, he ultimately lost control and failed to execute on his objectives. Chinas leaders have taken a different approach. Chinas leaders have kept their hands on the levers that control the economy, the commanding banks, the oil firms, many Large Industrial<\/a> firms remain stateowned into that gives a powerful leverage they can use to execute on the Development Objectives<\/a> and management of the economic cycle. On the Development Objectives<\/a>, chinas leaders can direct state banks and state firms to acquire technologies and put those technologies to work at enormous scale in the chinese economy bringing them closer to the frontier. On management of the economic cycle, the leaders can direct the state sector to hold onto their workers. The state sector is big and inefficient. Its a powerful tool that can be used to manage the economic cycle. The last area that i think our focus in terms of thinking about china. What we think about the media in terms of the prospect we tend to focus on the few stumbling blocks china faces, the working age population is shrinking. There is a middle income trap perhaps they would be able to innovate and a trade war that may block the access to the global market. Of these things arthese things e are real problems but they also have some significant positives working. They are so obvious. When he wrote his book the wealth of nations all the way back in 1776 so i am just going to quote briefly from what he wrote about china more than 200 years ago, two important points. The second Crucial Point<\/a> from adam smith, more extensive navigation, the chinese naturally learn the art of using and constricting themselves of all of the different machines make use of and the other countries as well as the other improvements of the industry which is practicing in all of the parts of the world. As smith was right on that as well. It he was also 200 years too early. But when they open the door between china in 1978, anymore with china joined the wto in 2001, these two powerful drivers came together. In china had enormous scale in the capacity to learn from foreign technologies. But when you put these two things together, you have an extraordinary engine. The question then becomes as the engine run out of steam. It think the answer to that is no print and the reason i think that, because it comparison between china and japan, lets think about when japans economy in 1989. Japans per capita in 1989 had already caught up to that level in the United States<\/a>. Javon was already on the frontier of what was possible in using technology and becoming more productive. China today, is very significantly below the United States<\/a>. And for me, that means there is still significant snapshot space. I think in this decade, china will still be going. I think at this end of this decade, its entirely possible that china was to be going at three or 4 percent a year. So i wont wrap up in a second, but before i do, the return pulled two pieces together and applied them your life what has happened china in the last six months. Now covid19, is a human tragedy. It is also an economic and financial info china. The last few months, income so the wars in chinas economy, the enterprises, Real Estate Developers<\/a> pretty liberal governments is all with contracted. If there was a moment with the chinese but would pop. It would be now. Their benefits slowed, and that is the moment when you would expect to see some kind of day of reckoning in the chinese economy. And of course it is not what has happened. If you can see daily activity indications and start. We built china and other economies in which you can see is that they felt but they didnt fall is other major economies. They become more quickly. There no closer to normal levels of activity than most other economies in the world. So why is that. Why didnt we see a financial crisis. In his recovery was quicker than other economies. While this brings me back to some of the senate recognized sources of strength in chinas economy. Because they are wellfunded, can afford to give forbearance to companies. They can say, you can pay us back this quarter is fine you can paste back next quarter or maybe even next year. Chinas leaders because they can all the lever of the enterprises, have a powerful cyclical instrument. If you dont let go of any of your work, maybe even hire more workers. And start investing. Because i can do that, they didnt prevent financial crisis breaking out. They can manage the downturn and shallower and recover quicker than other economies in the world. That is why i think the china is the bubble that never pops. Im going to head back to scott to hear from some of our great discussions. Thank you. Thomas scott thanks much tom. And i think you did an excellent job of summarizing your book in the overall story and really appreciate that. I like that you have a dry sense of humor but also you can make a point. I appreciate that. As you said adam smith was right. It is had very bad timing. And so he may be a very good economist but he would be a terrible investor. So now we are going to turn to our commentators. I would not call the slope murderers row. Even if they have a variety of different opinions but if youre going to form a Dissertation Committee<\/a> of the best of the brightest who work on chinas economy and Financial System<\/a>. This would be the group. This is a real treat to have them with us. Let me briefly introduce them and then i will turn over to each of them and allow them to offer a few minutes of commentary. Joyce chang, is the chair of Global Research<\/a> at j. P. Morgan. And is one of the leading analysts on chinas economy anywhere. She is up top rankings Institutional Investors<\/a> for emerging markets. And before joining j. P. Morgan. She was managing director at merrill lynch. An assistant director and also an adjunct professor of monetary economics at the university of berlin. Where he served as a tenure full professor. Hes previously taught at princeton as well. And rutledge, is a founding principal of a 20 yearold Credit Rating<\/a> advisory firm, spectrum pretty she is an expert on logic of Capital Market<\/a> Development Party<\/a> for the u. S. Senate and an advisor to hong kongs monetary authorities and is just one of the leading experts on all issues related to credit. Overnight is director in these firms china market research. He is also nonresident adjunct fellow with us in the trustee chair. Previously logan was head of China Research<\/a> for Global Advisors<\/a> and with mccarthy research both in beijing and hess 20 is from hong kong today. Im going to turn things over to joyce first. And then and and logan in that order and then we will look at questions so joyce prayed over to you pretty. Thank you so much scott. It is a real pleasure to be here with you and i also want to cry gradually on all the work you been doing with the test issues. And they were very closely with a great group of fellas. Im really wanted to congratulate tom because hes been an highly recommend this book. Because through the different stages in cycles the chinas and what they learn from each stage of the cycle of the four. This caused them to really take a more gradual approach. Theres a few things in tom highlights that are think worth mentioning. As China Express<\/a> an economy wide pandemic credit and i think another thing that spans often the focus, childbirth from the Asian Financial<\/a> crisis. But the Global Financial<\/a> crisis. In the Great Recession<\/a> that we are in right now. The trend brings very important lessons. I think tom very clearly points out this is not japan. After the bubble burst. Johnny will be 15 percent of the deep gdp. In many countries are the same category. Not. The guy had to rely on similars but a very major role in chinas managing was very gradual. What it says about what china has learned from past crises in the region and also how is managed of the different stages. I would like to make just three points on how we are seeing china right now. Talk about the current and mediumterm forecast that j. P. Morgan has pretty when you agree the chinas on the path of selfsufficiency. So we do think that china is having a vshaped recovery issue. We eventually think thats with the forecast for 2 percent this year. We had of below 1 percent where the rest of the world contracting 4 percent. Nature 2020, china will be over 8 percent. I think that is been very amazed by how its actually been able to return a type of normalcy. Dont think this can be be replicated elsewhere. They control so many parts of this. I think china has an enormous forces of strength. The Stable Funding<\/a> from the Financial Sector<\/a>, single party marshal resources. We do see them during an enormous stimulus this year. And a deficit that will be north of 15 percent of gdp. I would just say that i agree its a bubble that never pops. But the else entered the the rest of the world would also pop. China is. 4 percent off of Global Growth<\/a> in as much as one one in the commodity in the emerging markets in latin america. The important thing that i would say is what we are looking at is something more in the range of 40 percent at the end of the decade. Something of a collapse. We also have local growth coming down just off of this crisis. And on average, the Public Sector<\/a> is rising across the globe. Around 15 20 Percentage Points<\/a> present china has a debt problem with the rest of the world hopefully will come out of will come out of this with a lot of debt. Selfsufficiency is the second issue. Theyre very wellplaced to be selfsufficient. And Global Leaders<\/a> from certain areas. And i will say that we think that china has already obtained selfsufficiency and most Consumer Tech<\/a> areas. They been growing as National Security<\/a> concerns. Increased important on the tech infrastructure. Up quite a lot of their homegrown tech supply chains and the higher value areas. I dont think its that easy to lose the supply chain. But we do see tech communique ai and the internet and also clean energy with as a need in china where they will have selfsufficiency by 2030. And china is a bubble that will help that quickly. I like to conclude a few of the things that we are watching on the geopolitical side and the geopolitical conflicts. I do think there are red lines and trends what are they. National security legislation by the abc has amended and a basic law of hong kongs fa operated and stamped the territorial in the south china sea. Us. [inaudible]. And also a key player in the korea. I think there also very much seeing their approach to help this pandemic as a better model for the world. I agree with tom that china is a bubble the never pops. If it were up, it would be many other things that would be popping first. Host thank you joyce. Thank you. Can you hear me. Sometimes this is a fantastic book are told you earlier, i actually bought it in that i didnt have to. I think it has important messages for china today. But i think its also less humbleness someone like you who knows the country so well. We have a lot to learn looking back through history, think we all can learn. And what i like is that you are describing a very complicated subject for many things to form the whole and its really hard to think about, but even harder to write clearly about it. So i think it is a fantastic book. When you describe the strength of china, and not to underestimate the countrys ability to grow. And the policymakers to at least manage even though sometimes not a big fan. He point to all the right places in size and scale potential to grow. And i like the stress that you put on the ability and flexibly. And i think the covid19 is an important are here to read however its a reminder that some of the strength that china has mailed mentally sort of need to or binding economic constraints. The china is a large economy, very much in the policy makers. And constraints matter and let me just stress some of these issues there. I feel your overall summary, leading to the very optimistic bubble the never pops. The headline that is on screen. It gets a little bit underrated. So theyre basically true broad areas. When i think is that ability to all have all hands on deck. The topdown approach. It also comes with risk. Yourself points of the overshooting, if you put all of your eggs in one basket. And a Global Crisis<\/a> for example. In hindsight we know that. It brought a lot of problems in their of the policies on board. Youre well aware of stressing it. And also, you have an episode where the one child policy. That was an example of longterm rigidity. Other times not flexible. And so on the policymaking part, it is important that policymakers, say the bigger point for me and that is not because my paycheck is coming from there. It is because i feel these are points with stressing. Some i might point is that the constraints matter. The policy making elite has to face this. Otherwise we will not be the optimistic rule going forward. Aging is important. Form if ilet me stress, the aree technology. It is true that china has made great leaps here. And in a couple of areas, its also important to remember that in the vast majority with china is still significantly the golden frontier in terms of technology. That has an impact on productivity. He has an impact on enormous potential for reforms. You can actually pick them up. Saving, its good to have them for savings but its not healthy to have savings at the national level. It is not just thought it 45 of the gdp. Their inefficiencies, that come from it and they have to buy that debt level produce too high. And tom, with the black color chart, but to narrow this down and talk about corporate pretty slick the truth is between 130 and 170 percent of gdp corporate. It depends on what you assume with the corporation is at the local government level. In every other country on the planet, are 90 percent. Using the tensions that need tackling. Its my appeal to the readers of the book is take all of that material and focus on chapter 11 i believe. And there are some of these issues that he himself has described. They need to be taken outside of these policymakers. They are strong they are sensible but they have to work this out. Thanks. Host traffic and thank you. This downturn japan. Guest first i want to express my gratitude. And my views on china and finance. You do frequently laboriously. Take the pledge. I really like toms work very much and i was treated to again. He deserves to be paid for it and Oxford University<\/a> press is a great press. At a professional and personal level, i like this book. Late shifts the dialogue about china becoming this and three important ways. Before i said that, the first thing that i want to say is before walking into the fourth cycle of chinas financial history through china of 2025, tom thinks about financial history of the continual process. I lived through a lot of this history personally in this narrative is integrity. His head. And kind of liberating to read another persons narration of my private experience. So to say i arrived in hong kong ten days. And i lived in it to the fall of the game. Practitioner leader of the chinese press, new the credit market back story of china. And that is the story is not been well told. The first time theyve actually seen it well laid out. Archana Hong Kong Exchange<\/a> during the second cycle. My expressive was the same. The perspective of the book, the free market versus the stentorian capital that usually leads to economic studies moves towards the china centric narrative. Thats hugely valuable subject that, respect some of the red mats. Skipping ahead to see if the strike ends with the definitive announcement about why the bubble has burst. Maybe the point of the book is also the eye of the storyteller. One persons bubble is anothers garden variety dysfunction. Every nation has those. Just the ones from an economic story of the financial story, also very valuable. Chinas financial narrative is a difficult story to tell. And as joyce said, i think they do a great job in putting up social distancing especially. Between the u. S. And china understands china. I think social rather than cultural, because finance experts have their own culture. They speak a special anguish of money that transcends whether youre operating in china or the u. S. As im sure dominoes well. Everybody reads bloomberg. It is truly language because of the big ideas predict the biggest debate is lacking in the culture of finance think it says more about the prickly some of the practitioners about than what it is about what finance can do pretty so hooray for them. If it from china, the more the better. With the competition and ideas. But i would say from my experience, both professionally and personally, it connects the system of evolutionary history, its complicated as it is dynamic. I ate goat stew from an open cauldron near the roebling station. When i visited in 1979. I was there again when the First Exchange<\/a> opened in 1990. It illustrates a point. So lets bring up a slide of this. Lets go to the second side. This is the opening. Can you will see it. This is the opening of exchange. You see the cart before it opened in the very first day. You see the happy faces of the traders. In the sea the observers the Observation Deck<\/a> five minutes after the market launched. Successfully. One of the things that we forget. I will stop my site here. The things that we forget is this is also the real finance. No china, if youre going to tell the story of chinas evolution coming would also talk about the exchange and has thousands of exchanges and training thousands of different assets. That is not for tom to do but i want to talk a little bit about a scene that i think did belong in the telling that is below the china market, they were talk to you about issues, the role of prostate. And he talks about the regions financial crisis and Lessons Learned<\/a> with respect to the eccentric control. They played a very large role in the National Crisis<\/a> to pray china now has a second largest market in the world. Its going to become a bubble. China and the u. S. Have both embarked on financial policies that are designed to thing to illuminate rather than harness the national opportunism. Into the eyes of the traders, thats what, i mean, by financial opportunism. It was one who gets right. I think that is very apparent but the shadow market holds the key. And allegedly with the comment i somewhat disagree with toms thesis about where the bubbles begin pretty think that begin on the asset side of the Balance Sheet<\/a>. They run out of funding, with the banks predict the economy from that of the tangible values to monetized credit and the generation of intelligible valleys is a function of information quality. This is an area where we have a lot to learn still. Thank you. Host thank you and print really appreciate that. Now to logan. Thank you for joining us. Guest thank you and really appreciate the invitation. Tom i just want to say congratulations for the spoke tom. Its very impressive coverage of a wide range of events throughout chinas financial history. In his most impressive was he really integrates a lot of the political insights and some of the key events within chinas economic history together. I seen very few books even really attempt this. I also found this discussion of the debt dynamics in terms of borrowers dividing up with the borrowers and lenders and then telling history. His very novel way of addressing Different Actors<\/a> within the system. And so some of the anecdotes were great particular when youre talking to entrepreneurs and borrowers. A lot of the other integrations to the contemporary references to Chinese Literature<\/a> for example pretty so i would highly recommend everyone to get this book. Then finance books, the field is generally boring. Its difficult to actually go through many different titles. It is very refreshing to read something this part more interesting. With hardly recommend anyone listening to pick up toms book. I focus on client comments on the substance into areas. One is that the leveraging campaign for you describe. I would have a slightly different interpretation of age. But i would like to ask you to react to it. The second is your describing it. I think that the leveraging campaign is described with a bit as if it were somewhat costless in this telling. I think its actually still an Ongoing Development<\/a> in terms of the cut down on credit shutter credit that is underway. I would argue and what is really happened the start of the substitution the sum of the funding sides with a slowdown in Economic Growth<\/a> which is what is taking place. They havent really avoided the tradeoff here, just more risks are materializing within itself. One of the reasons for that is shadow lenders probably streaking, theres a lot of activity but they do fund the real economy. There are ways of many shadow lenders are basically engaging that activity to hide some of the formal Banking Systems<\/a> or to violate credit policy to get around restrictions on whether the Property Developers<\/a> are finding vehicles are of that nature. Our own analysis demonstrates that is about at least we demonstrate 52 percent of nonbank Financial Institution<\/a> and assets are basically standard credit or sort of nonstandard credits. This probably conservative. Blue does have an impact on growth. In 2018, about very sharp impact on growth. Basically the impact was the Corporate Group<\/a> cut in half probably by about two thirds. Theres really no nuance to that approach for 11 argue we can highlight the bloodless they approach the china took rather than a statement about state capacity overall. If you look good industrial output in 2018, presidium of the 103 indicators have gynecologist were, they declined outright. The weighted average was about six 7 percent fall in industrial output of brault and policymakers were forced to respond. There were also saying since that time, new credit risks materializing in the system. In the bank failure in 2019, was largely a byproduct certainly corruption investigation and had political overtones. What was largely byproduct up in excess of shadow lending. And he made the decision to basically impose some costs on lenders that were expanding using the shadow and using their liabilities but at the same time, after that failure, we ended up saying a variety of water in terms of the credit risk. We started, they were defoliant local governments can protect nonentities another bring started seeing innovative funding being withheld. Truck company even as your are facing protests outside of the front doors. The last three months alone, to small ranks, just over the past weekend. Im interested in your reaction interpretation the campaign has left us also somehow might change your perception of the capacity. The second set of comments is on Crisis Management<\/a> in general. Place emphasis, rightfully so. Its really hard to redirect savings in a crisis and i think youre completely correct and focusing on the funny side of things but as a, those are sort of running. I think the interesting thing here if they can always jet liquidity to manage a crisis but. Ellipsis crisis is acknowledged, has a crisis, and china might not every actually acknowledge it. They dont necessarily have the capacity to do so. I think the argument relies on government creativity. He really deployed Crisis Management<\/a> tools if you never going to admit that you are facing a crisis itself. And you do so, does look like financial crisis. The second is, the creativity really has clear limits. Property prices are down 30 5n the realm of possibility in the future. Given the imbalances of the property sector hundred and other tools of china key is one of the country cant were dealing problems of this magnitude. I was up there. But thank you very much. Host thank you very much. And as i told you, i told everyone at the beginning. My warning, is that we would, this hour with flyby. We still have about eight or nine minutes left. Im willing to go a few minutes longer because this is such a rich conversation prompted by a terrific book. As of the commentators might be considered like a Dissertation Committee<\/a> and everything that ive heard from them was that at the end of the day, they would sign off that form the circulating in the room. And with flying colors. They obviously, im just have saved everyone agrees on everything but we have is a very important conversation will you have highlighted areas of debate that are needed to engage. While we have been listening. Our audience has been submitting questions which i have collected. They come on sort of three groups. What i wanted to do is mention some of these. And then a minute give tom a few minutes to pick and choose amongst them. And then actually go back through our commentators in reverse order. For some final reaction from their site as well. And tom, i know we are trying, dont feel like were putting too much on your plate. This is just the start of the conversation, not the end. From our audience, as the three kinds of questions. The first, has to do with chinas system. And whether or not it is too brittle. We are that some of that from the commentators but you are telling that there still being relatively pragmatic. The system seems adaptable. Can you explain that a little bit further. And second type of question had to do with sort of whether or not the description of chinas Economic Performance<\/a> is overly rosy. And then point to the people ask about chinas technology, and questions about debt and productivity and what can you say about what is the proper standard to judge chinas Economic Performance<\/a>. Thirty, are questions about u. S. China relations and the International System<\/a> of cold war, and what happens if the u. S. Tries to lock china out of swiss or really clamps down on Technology Much<\/a> further distance apart. This is really going to constrain china and lead to a pumping of the bubble. Celeste turned things back to you read and get some initial reactions from the commentators and from our audience questions. Tom pretty. Tom you very much scott. And thanks very much to all of the discussions. I think all of you got the balance between undeserved praise and gentle but completely correct pushback. He got it completely right. So thank you that pretty so the link try to take on a few of these. So first of all, to logans point on the cost. I think that is completely right. The leveraging has not been a painless cost free process. It is certainly true if we look at alternative indications, in 2016, and 2017, 2018. May well have been significantly below what the official was protected. The cost of leveraging. In the point that i would make the is the fact that chinas leaders were willing to embark on a painful labor during campaign itself, its an evidence of their willingness to do that. One of the choices for the choices are continue to grow really fast. In a financial or an attempt to manage problems and take the cost now. Most economies around the world, the over option two. Let things run and they have a crisis. China did that early acceptance and cost. So i think that in itself goes to some of the strengths of chinese economic and Financial System<\/a>s. And and made a really interesting point, when we run out, intangible value to the Financial System<\/a>. I think but that speaks to, really is a question about chinas story. Sophie really think the chinas Great Stories<\/a> over, then yes we would be extremely worried about financial crisis. Because the resources, the banks and corporations and government half, would be flat or even shrinking. Thats when the crisis happens. So underpinning some of my optimism, in fact a longer term view. And i think its sort of broadly inclined with where joyces numbers came in and will china be in 2030. And how those math numbers would come in, tiny arrangement. I dont think china is intangible numbers to generate. So we had a question from the audience about Mental Illness<\/a> we didnt get to talking about the social side of china. So think it is also an area where we underestimate the robustness. For as long as i have been thinking and writing about china, theres been a story that is vetted kind of tasks between the Chinese People<\/a> in the communist party. You give us grief and we will give you control. When have that control and stories always been what if it disappears and unemployment rises. Look out there will be social instability. This will china is determined to throw 8 percent a year even though these cost in terms of increasing balances. The first half of 2020, if you do that as well. The economy shrunk 6. 8 percent. Household income is contracted. Unemployment has risen. Medically look at most chinese prophets, we dont seek social instability. So think the story about brittleness, in chinas society, i think it actually is considerably overstated. Let me just take on that last question from the audience about the cold war. So i think we went back to 1978, when he started the process, if the u. S. At that point had said no. Not coming into the Global Economy<\/a>, welltrained with you and will invest you. We wont share our talent and Trend Technology<\/a> and expertise. That would be a crushing blow to the early reformulation. And maybe the Global Economy<\/a> today would be very different than it is. But here we are in 2020. In china is second biggest economy in the world. The biggest exporter in the world. I exporter increasingly taxable to many emerging markets. Also nationals in the u. S. And europe and japan and korea. They are deeply invested in the china relationship. But this is sort of supplying and source of the mobile in. Its clear that theres been a change the world and the views of china. Striker here and europe and other parts of the world. There has been a shift from thinking about the opportunity to worry about the risk and thinking about their system. In fact, looming a cold war in a meaningful sense where the economic ties are comprehensively broken. I find that very hard to imagine. Some afraid he didnt get to all of the amazing comments we have from the panel all the interesting questions from the audience. But i think that deals with some of the big points. Terrific. Masterful reactions to some of the comments from the commentators in the audience. Only give a minute or so to each of our commentators ganglion reverse order. And react to anything that thomas entered things that you have heard from her fellow commentators. And then i will drop things up. Summa contra state something very briefly about the covid19 outbreak in effect we think it should have on the Financial System<\/a>. And the stability. I think it is far too early to say that we have seen the effects of hard. The other issue is that when government guarantees for state enterprises, for banks and Government Support<\/a> is being extended. I would not necessarily expect to see financial risk rise. I would expect to see that occur in a system like china where reading is assumed to be guaranteed. When government guarantees are being withdrawn. When conditions are normalizing. So it may be too early to see when it is really after sort of china has a recovery we get back to more regular regulation of the Banking System<\/a> to see more credit risks emerge because the losses from nonperforming loans during this time will start to appear. That being said, im also concerned about what the risk we are already saying within the Financial Institution<\/a> such a trust and even smaller banks. Host terrific party and print. Ann creswell, it was a great story. It does not forget that china has a . 7 trillion market that is not counted in that. So let us and the securitization is wrong. Im a practitioner. But its easy to say the chinas express strategy for the banki banking, so there is luggage thereto. Number two. From my experience, analysts, i know that every reporting agency counts debt incorrectly because they are counting on marginal basis instead of money cumulative basis. The actual amount of debt on each countrys summer between two times and four times what is reported. Ahead of them know that because you cant debt, differently and security. Default is not debt. Point number three. Very worried about not just the fragility of china the fragility of the Global Economy<\/a> because i see direct attack on this. And i see in my point about how you cant default as part of that. The same games that go on in manipulating the statistics upon in manipulating the covid19 numbers. It is there arent enough people who actually understand it is six to say this the right way to do it the wrong way to do it. On science takes two different forms. From the ics, they would control the sources of the science. In china, i think they control the interpretation. What science is. I think that some related to hong kong just beijing but they have information culture. Our control of science is a relatively new phenomenon. Not things that i want to say is on things. I dont talk about politics the other thing that i want to say is in 2014, the state council publish what i thought was the policy piece on capital structure. Its called. [speaking in native tongue]. But it was published in a few ideas about the development of Sustainable Capital<\/a> system. And that was going to be the way forward. But thats not the way china is progressing. And we do not have a stable concept of capital structure in any of the countries that i operate on. And ill say that is enough. Enough said. I am worried about fragility. Not as much about china but as the United States<\/a> as well. In both countries wrong, we are all in trouble. Host great discussion. One covid19 so far, we have to be careful before we celebrate. In part because many of the measures that we need now, in china, has ramifications for going forward. Parsec dealing, it will ultimately hurt you. So you have to commit on it. No permit at an important point, yes, theres incomes to other countries. And tangible and intangible, Financial Markets<\/a>. There is improving efficiency. In this country has a lot of potential improving the finches in the way of the resources. Thats a big part of it. The reform. Theres a lot of growth on the table the policymakers can pick up. I just wanted to add a couple of comments on the Financial Sector<\/a>. We talked about chinas global reach and the tech markets and manufacturing and geopolitical consequence is the global region Financial Markets<\/a> is actually been very limited. I think this is one key area to watch. If you look at oversee holdings of chinese assets, and the portfolios is about 2. 3 percent. As i will china be able to become a male mainstream financial holdings. I see issues to look at. As they emerge out of this crisis. Were seeing china to go into mainstream where equity and investor take about one third of the way through the process now of putting it into the indexes. But having developed the Financial Markets<\/a>, is one be one important determinant of how they look ahead. Probably under invested in Financial Markets<\/a>. Banks are still about two thirds of palatable assets. Stocks and mutual funds, are 16 and 4 percent rate is the question about whether the Financial Markets<\/a> will continue to develop as china progresses, i think is an important question. I think globalization, could be very very very slow to the covid19 crisis. There is a whole issue of stress and how and transparency and integrate, it does slow down there. So think this is a key requirement for china moving forward. Because you still have a risk of manmade financial crisis. As all of the other speakers have talked about at one thing they really need to do this attracting these kinds of investments and as everybody is looking at the supply chains. That is the greater need to diversify. Host thank you so much joyce. This is been a fantastic discussion and the credit goes to tom for writing a great book to give us all started on this. I want to emphasize light we wanted to host this program. My thinking is different for folks dorian new york or london are folks who work in Financial Markets<\/a> prints obviously very important. I cant emphasize enough how important it is for the washington policy community to get china right. He did ministration that comes in in their mind, the vision of china is either a partner or a competitor that looks at how their views about how stable the chinas projector he is and system is whether or not China Economic<\/a> trajectory that is a net opportunity or risk for the United States<\/a>. I think the washington has been consumed by it. Certain kind of image china. That loots a lot of the risk of the downside of which are definitely there. But add some balance to that conversation. I think we need to continue to investigate and we think about economic policies, towards china. And globally, we have as accurate a picture as we possibly can. And so tom, really think you very much for helping us develop that picture today and with your book. They will have a very long shelf life. I am certain of it. I want to thank our staff. In our intern for organizing todays event. In doing a masterful job. Also to our commentators, and terrific commentary. A great Dissertation Committee<\/a>. Hope we get the van together again and to our audience for tuning in. Pressing good questions. And to everybody. Please be back with us on september 22nd when we have a rule out. On a report about financial risk in china as well. This is a topic that is not going away. We really need to understand it. We are going to stay on it. So we will be providing more information about that report in the event and weeks ahead. To everyone there, wherever you are, hope you have a good evening. Good afternoon or a good rest of the day. Thank you so much for tuning in and take care. More book tv programming each night this week. Just a books about world war ii including winston churchill, female pilots the polish resistance. Technology is featured on wednesday with words on facebook and race and technology. Thursday others talked about identity politics and the rise of nationalist, populist movements. On friday but to be listed several programs with the selling author malcolm gladwell. Weeknights his mother were featuring American History<\/a> tv programs as a preview of what is available every weekend on cspan three. Tuesday night, look at her American History<\/a> tv presidency series. On tuesday, Harper Hoover<\/a> and fdr, political relationship between the roosevelt and kennedy family. The portrayal of Abraham Lincoln<\/a> at fords theater in jfks response to the Nuclear Arms Race<\/a> and civil rights. Watch beginning at eight eastern and enjoy American History<\/a> tv this week and every weekend. On cspan three. Welcome everybody. I have a session here. Its really a celebration of a brilliant timely new book at a time where in a has a very important discussion the critical region of the world. And of course the story todays performance is the author of the great new book about michael who is a tremendous historian greatest color of contemporary asia and a distinguished fellow. Hoover paredes also a great friend. Really is wonderful to celebrate this tremendous new book. 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