You here today to our conversation on Foreign Policy and the us president ial election. This event is part of the brookings policy 2020 series which seeks to empower voters with factbased datadriven nonpartisan information to better understand the policy matters discussed by candidates running for office this year. Thank you for joining us. Were 29 days away from november 3. Americans will cast their ballots for the next president of the future of americas global role is also on the ballot today. Looking toward the election, todays conversation will focus in particular on its implications for the transatlantic relationship and us Foreign Policy towards europe. Leaders as many of their counterparts around the world are working watching the election closely and while there are differing views about how the upcoming november will shape the transatlantic relationship few in europe believe it will revert to its previous standing. European council of use of the transatlantic relationship shows that france and germany need to prepare for longterm disengagement from the us regardless of the outcome of the election. This polling also finds irrespective of the result no eu member state would seek to position europe as a third power between the us and china. Todays discussion will assess the stakes of the election and its implications for us Foreign Policy. Im delighted to be joined by an outstanding panel of brookings experts who will offer insights and analysis about what we can expect from either a second trump term or biden presidency. They will consider how the geopolitical europe would react to either scenario. We dive into the conversation id like to take a moment to thank the turkish business and Industry Association for their collaboration which has helped to make this event possible. Were grateful for the renewed support of our charter on the us and europe and we look forward to continuing our Successful Partnership with them. As always an ironclad commitment to scholars and independents is at the center of Brookings Institution values and theviews expressed today are solely those of the speakers. Once again thank you for joining us this morning and now over to tom wright, director of the center on us and europe. Thank you so much for that introduction and thank you to all of you for joining us online this morning. Im hoping first, we thought it would be an eventful october, theres a lot of things to discuss and i dont think any of us would have gone into it with what we find ourselves this morning so to talk about the broader implications of the election and Foreign Policy in general , were fortunate to be joined by a terrific panel of my colleagues from brookings so ill briefly introduce them although im sure there are they are all knownto you. First is rebecca holston, chair and senior fellow of government study. And has done immense work on the election and us politics but the connection to Foreign Policy and americas role in the world. The owner help, my colleague epicenter for the United States and europe , and of course formally senior director from europe and russia in the white house during the trumpet ministrations, cd apollo on who is visiting fellow in the center for us and european Foreign Policy and also earlier this year in france on the views of the Democratic Candidates for president so welcome all and thanks for joining us this morning. We will spend the next 45 or 50 minutes and then we will turn it open for questions which you can relay in twitter. So i just guess my first question is on the news of the day which is clarified by saying of course best wishes to our president and to all of those affected by this latest outbreak and hoping for a speedy recovery. But gail, i wanted to start with you. It seems as if there is no precedent for an event or benefit like this,certainly so close to an election. It really creates additional uncertainty. Its also aglobal event of course because were talking about the commanderinchief. Of the United States and theres lots of things that happen on the International Scene over the next four weeks and beyond particularly the president is in anyway so we have everything cominginto the next , nationalsecurity , politics, personality and i was wondering if you give us your first sort of impressions of the gravity of this situation and also how slightly to feed into the election on november 3. Tom, your question anticipates my answer. It is all of the above or, i think the general sense in the United States is that we are filing one disruptive event on top of another. If this had happened against a calm backdrop, it would have been one thing. But for it to happen while the rubble was still bouncing on hmo to us president ial debate last week, while threats of interference in the us election had come to the balance are in play, because the president of the United States has put it in there plus the course the actual situation on the ground with the pandemic not under control. With the economy and economic recovery appearing to slow and perhaps being stall altogether. With racial conflict and partisan polarization. This is an unprecedented tuition. I am old enough, i was an adult in 1968 and ive long said that 1968 was the worst year in american politics and Society Since the end of the civil war. Im in the process of revising area it may well be the year were enduring is in fact the worse since the civil war. With regardto the election itself. This is at the very least a serious problem for the Trump Campaign to be added to the roster of Serious Problems including a decline in Public Opinion polls but that was already facing in the following very direct sense. Game plan was that president from wood barnstorming around the country for the last month of thecampaign. The is widely viewed as his campaigns most important assets to be deployed. The trump rallies are famous for their raucous enthusiasm which appears to have ripple effects through the portion of the electorate is inclined to vote for mister trump and it appears that for a substantial training of time, i would sayat least the next 10 days, the Trump Campaign will not be able to play its high card. And which will impede his prospects of coming from behind to catch joe biden and require this race. Thank you. If i could turn to you next, you worked with many of the people in that are currently serving in the white house. I just wonder media reports over the weekend just saw if not a general sense of chaos, just basically a degree of uncertainty and concern and concern about the continuity of government and theres been some conversation around mark meadows who i me know came after your son there but i was wondering if you could maybe give us your sort of calls about it being experienced by the official work on us foreignpolicy. Impacts to the president s likely to have on Us National Security and if any other reflections you have on these debates . I think what weve seen here is a risk of having a highly personalized presidency and this really fits into what bill has already said and i think we are in a very unusual time when President Trump has very vocally, publicly and frequently said he is the only person who matters in the system. And it would be very interesting to hear from bill again as we go around, im sure there will be questions about this not just about the continuity of governance but about the whole delegation of authority and the president s incapacitation. Of course weve had that before in the past but this is an administration in which the president doesnt like to delegate down authority. As i learned in the time that it came out clearly in the testimonies this time last year, nobodys really delegated, with authority to carry out the businesses that. That can easily be undermined in at least, anything that you say. About whether anything anybody says matters. And so i think that this this makes it very difficult for everybody else to goabout their jobs. Theres little confidence apart from i would say on many routine domestic issues to the us about National Security where people can press ahead with anything. So we just recently saw that a National Security adviser brian has gone up to meet with his other parts, nikolai partnership from russia, the head of the interNational Security council in eva and we get that many times when i was in the National Security council. And even then, that particular set of junctures which was early on in the term, the russians were questioning about how authoritative were our interactions. We moved along in arms control negotiations with the russians. It seems to have hit a crucial period but with a month out of the election with grit and uncertainty as to what happens in the press ahead on some of those Critical Issues like bill is suggesting, require a calm her this year. Its very hard to make breakthroughs on political issues like armscontrol which are very sensitive and detailed and complex negotiations but also very technical and you have so much chaos and uncertainty that i think this is just a metaphor also for our National Security. Its hard for anyone who is under the circumstances to get on with her job when its not clear how much authority that they actually have area. Thank you. Stevie, this is really the latest development not just in us politics for the rest of the world but also on the handling of the coronavirus. How it is being interpreted in france and in europe and what sort of main lens through which they see the United States at the moment. Youre on mute. Force of habit. Of course, europeans are looking with great interest whats happening to President Trump at the moment. Great interest, great concern i must say. All the leaders have sent their sentiments of support, a concern for thepresident and his family and of course , obviously on the public or the media you have some sarcastic comments as it is wellknown that the President Trump himself ended up in a position of doubt lets say regarding this virus so you had some coverage on this in the media in europe and france and germany and the uk obviously over the weekend but in many ways, it sort of reinforces this pretext european idea whats going on in the us is that you have a country that is adrift, just a month out of the president ial election. A pandemic is not under control. The tension, political tensions are extremely high as bill said. You have crisis on top of each other and theres a strong feeling since the beginning of this pandemic or lets say two months into it that the us is not handling the crisis very well. There was a poll from the Pew Research Center midseptember that showed that europeans considered when they were asked who had done a good job in dealing with covid, they were given pretty good marks for the eu around the, 60 percent. Even more for their own country, around 60 or 70 percent and quite high marks for china around for the present but the us notes mark was abysmal, around 10 to 15 percent in some of the main European Countries. Considering that only 10 or 15 percent of people considered that the us was doing a good job dealing with covid so really what this ultimate crisis would do is just reinforce this image and the same time, the europeans on isolation. Who else in the us can be their ally in dealing with this pandemic and at the moment, the giant is missing and its leadership is missing now more than ever, the president ial leadership is missing as well. So i was just thinking listening to bill to fiona that the only thing really missing from this confluence of crisis is an International Crisis and hopefully the us wont face that that would be a very weak moment, a very hard moment for the us at the time when power is concentrated around the president and the president is or could be incapacitated, at least its a worrying thought also for europeans. I know just to follow up obviously the Prime MinisterBoris Johnson has had many highprofile instances of politicians in france contracting it. There is to politicians, one in office and one that was president of the Regional Council and then another important figure of the socialist party. He died also from covid early on in the process, but and then quite a few members of cabinet have been sick. Nobody else i know of or can remember. It was as sick as Forrest Johnson so its as close to the crisis of leadership as it was in the uk or as is going on in the us but of course, there was sort of a sense of relief that we have ayoung president at the moment. Thats a little bit of just luck but especially at the height of the epidemic in april and may it was a comforting sentiment for some french, but im sure it is extremely troubling to have the highest function in the land being hit to this degree and i just realized that i dont think europeans feel as much as americans do. Ive seen the coverage in the media here. It isextremely dramatic. I dont think it has gotten justice just yet. Just one followup for you and its really to do withthe mechanics of the election. So i mean, theres lots of different scenarios thatcould happen over the next few weeks. President trump coming back and campaigning potentially on the other hand he could be quite sick. All of that could have an impact on the election. If he has to withdraw from the race for who knows, but my question is is the us electoral system sort of set up adequately to deal with the spectrum of possibility and when people go to the polls november 3, in this respect is not in other respects of the normal issues that we talked about before thisweekend , is that likely to go smoothly or could we be facing a constitutional crisis with uncertainty about both the election and then the close election period . Is a very large question and me trying to subdivide for purposes of clarity. The president s ability to get back on the campaign trail will be dictated to some extent by health considerations. But as we saw yesterday, this is the president determined to project an aura of strength and invulnerability. And we had good reason to believe that he will go to considerable if not extraordinary lengths to do that and i expect that to continue. So unless he is really so ill that he must be confined to bed, his bedin the hospital , for an extended period, i would expect them to get back on the campaign trail even against the advice of his doctors. This is just a speculation but i think its consistent with his character and conduct over a long period of time. Question number two, what would happen if he became so ill that you were in effect forced to withdraw as the president ial candidate . Here theres no ambiguity area of the Republican Party and for that matter the Democratic Party both have in place very clear legal wreck mechanisms for replacing a national candidate, either the president or theVice President. In emergency circumstances. And i do not expect that to become a subject of contestation. We also have your legal and constitutional processes work temporarily transferring our from the president to the Vice President or people lower down in the chain of succession. If that were to become necessary. So the question that is most imponderable has to do with the conduct of the election itself and the aftermath on election day. The president s in the past as indicated that he distinguishes every sharply between the returns that are announced on the night of the election and the returns come in and are counted and announced after that. That could be a serious point of contestation and disruption because a record share of the votes in 2020 will be cast by mail and many of those mail in balance will not be counted in time to be reported on election night. So as a legal matter, i think the situation is clear. Those ballots to the extent those are not invalidated because of technical violations by individual voters will be counted. Whether the president will accept accounts is a different question but i dont think thats going to be a political question, not a legal question. I am a member of a number of organizations that have worked through a series of disaster scenarios. Now, the sort of scenario like a Nuclear Meltdown to which one attaches a small probability which it came to pass would be absolutely catastrophic. Time does not permit me to go through all of thosescenarios. Suffice to say both Political Parties have reviewed those scenarios in detail and it is within a realm of metaphysical possibility that one or more states would send competing slates of electors to participate in a final forum of president ial selection process. If that were to happen,all bets are off. Assuming we do have that, we have the president in relatively quick order after the election, id like turn then to the two obvious narratives for next year. Trump is reelected or binding is elected and to ask you all to sort of paint through what that will mean for International Politics but also particularly for the transatlantic relationship and lets start with trump and sort of i know hes less likely according to very much all of the data they are to be reelected but it is a possibility. Obviously he defied the odds last time so lets assume that he is elected. The owner, if i could start with you since you worked in the white house. And i know youv