Transcripts For CSPAN2 CSIS Discussion On U.S. North Korea P

Good morning everyone in dc, good evening everyone in korea, good day around the world, im the host of this capital cable. Welcome to the twelfth edition brought to you by the good folks at kia motors. On the capital cable secretary mike pompeo took to northeast asia and its applications for korea. 1010 marks party day in north korea, expectations for that date and impact on interkorean relations, mystery solved, the latest north selfdevelopment in the 2018 disappearance of the d prk ambassador to rome who is in south korea as well as continuing develops in the wake of the shooting death of the south Korean Ministry of oceans and fisheries at the at the hand of the North Koreans, bonus coverage of important us are okay alliance issued including the upcoming economic dialogue started by yours truly and a new vice Ministerial Alliance. And multiple assignments throughout asia with the language in korean, Language Skills excuse me, korean, japanese and the bees. And my favorite title, representative to the spent fuel team at the Nuclear Facility but that is going is north korea bona fides. Sadly, running away with regular segment this year at kb about welcome to the show. Thanks. Its great to be. Thanks for having me back. Looking forward to it affects a coming on again. Quickly turning to regulators, victor cha, vice dean at georgetown, head of the csis creature program, former director at the nsc bush to white house on korea and a new coffee mug . Good stuff. Last but not least dr. Doctor singletary, Senior Advisor to the korean chair, taught at columbia as well. I see the coffee mug, looking good. Welcome back to the program. Looking for to your insights as well. With that lets get to it. This week secretary pompeo travel to japan. He was originally slated to also stop in korea i believe mongolia, but offer later date. The japan trip held, two big highlights and want to ask mr. Knepper. First, meeting with the new japanese Prime Minister and also a meeting with the quad in tokyo which is at the foreign minister level with the indians, the australians, japanese and, of course, us as well, the United States. Lets take these in turn. Your impressions from the meeting, what are the big takeaways for this Japan Alliance Going Forward . First off, let me just say it was really a pity the secretary couldnt continue on with this whole program to it as you said both seoul but given ebony eveg going on at the time with the president s health i think regrettable but understandable. I hope you had to reschedule. As you said he did make it to tokyo, significantly he was able to meet with the new japanese Prime Minister, and individual we know well. What a great them when his chief cabinet secretary at the fact when he was chief campus after he visited washington met with Vice President pence, secretary pompeo. In way this was a chance to continue to build on a relationship that was already solid and really the Prime Minister is devotee of the alliance of it is very committed to ensuring the u. S. Japan relationship remains. The cost of both our National Security and foreign policies in the region. And will looking for to deepening further this relationship over the months ahead. As for the quad, it was the second time we had met the foreign minister level. This was important and we had this dragon and interest industry in the a grueling schedule. This directory spent 20 oh before turning around a coming back but the quad, this is represent i think an understanding among our four countries about the need for democracies, liberal economies such as yourselves to get together, discussed our shared values come to discuss our shared interest, to discuss ways which we can cooperate to address the challenges we all face in the region and around the world. Thanks for for the excellent overview. Really appreciate that standing readout. Since this is a show primarily focused on korea but also northeast asia and asia writ large Security Issues and geopolitical issues, what should the koreans take away from this . What should seoul take away from this in terms of new japanese Prime Minister, something that comes to top of my this seoul tokyo relations and the trilateral relationship between washington and seoul and tokyo . Prime minister suga as as a salesman of the japanese leaders recognizes the importance of constructive productive relations among all three countries come the trilateral relationship as you said. And among the top issues that we do share is meeting the north korea challenge. I would fully expect Going Forward Prime Minister suga will work with us can work with the republic of korea on our shared challenge with pyongyang. But at the same time we are on the for other areas in which we can cooperate. Its important for us again to recognize which are values and goals, and hopefully we proceed, seoul and tokyo will find a a y to address their own issues in a way that does respect the past but does pave the way to a brighter future. Do you sense any opportunity for improving ties or improving trilateral relations between the three nations in the wake of the new Prime Minister and secretary pompeo is trip to the region . The relationship, trilateral relationship was among topics the secretary raised matches with Prime Minister suga but with the foreign minister. As with any new slate, new leader, that doesnt always present opportunities. We have to be skillful in how we deal with it. Certainly a lot of our efforts to work with our partners in the region are not always on the front page of the news. We try to be discreet when we deal with these matters but we do definitely see opportunities to try and improve things. I think we were heartened by the very warm Exchange Agreement between president moon and the new Prime Minister, and we will start here and see how things go. Thanks for that really interesting take. Victor, i want to come to you on the trilateral and seoul tokyo peace. We will get to the quad in the second. Ill come back to you on the quad. But victors, on his basket of issues. So tokyo trilateral relationship. Sure. Mark is being diplomatic because hes a diplomat. This relationship is about as bad as i wrote a book on this relationship. Its about as bad as its ever been unfortunately. I do think theres an opportunity with a new Prime Minister. A i dont think the relationship to be bad. He spoke about korea in his first speech in the United States, actually at csis. He did his best. He wanted to build relations with korea but so much stuff happen and it that just being, i mean he as the right minister just became an obstacle to any possible improvement of relations. The fact that suga is now there, even the suga is almost like abe two are still an opportunity just because of the personalities have changed. And so its great as mark said pompeo was in tokyo and raise the trilateral. Its important that happened. On the korean side there has to be, so the president is good, it was good to make positive statements with positive forwardlooking but i think the main thing is they have to see it, you assess to see this improved relations as important even if its not conducive to any sort of improvement in interkorean relations. They are focused like a laser on interkorean relations mps regime stuff in the year and half they have left. In fact, president moon spoke at another event last night where the primary thing he talked about after he thank everybody for inviting him, the only thing he really talked about was a peace declaration. And so we have to think about, cannot see trilateral and seoultokyo relations as being irrelevant to that goal. If thats the goal they are after they need to understand that this is important in their effort to achieve that goal. You have to get consensus of everybody if thats the goal you want to achieve. Thats sort of the primary dilemma right now is they see no need for because they dont see it as conducive to the gulf there trying to achieve, which is this declaration. Excellent insight, excellent analysis. You ut death and tease our interkorean top of the will be coming here shortly. Before we get to that, marc, back to you. Quad. You gave an overview kumquats a discussion about use, important these of the Foreign Ministers came to tokyo to engage in a really important dialogue at eight critical time. In the background briefing i think was on the return trip by the secretary, there are quotes from Senior State Department officials on background talked about the secretary would move to institutionalize this framework. So two questions here. What does that mean in terms of institutionalize, and what do we expect to see Going Forward from this . Thanks. Just a brief history of the quad. It started way back in 2004 actually as our four countries cooperate in the wake of the boxing day, december 26 earthquake and tsunami in the indian ocean and over the years the idea, the dream of the quad is waxed and waned and the recent waxing the result of this recognition that our four countries do share interest come share values. Really we talk about institutionalizing it it means to regularize it, come up with more rigorous scheduling meetings at various levels not just foreign minister but at lower levels, but also to come up with Something Like work plan which would include a number of cooperative efforts in different areas whether its security, infrastructure development, whether its Traditional Development assistance, whether its in the energy sphere, connectivity, roadbuilding, that kind of thing. Its still early and it still meant i think to be sorted envisioning a fabric that will connect all of us throughout the region and a question batch of other participation. The quad was never meant to be exclusive. Its not meant to be insular and keep others out. Rather, its meant to have other countries wanting to join. We will see how it goes from here, but very positive mood i think coming out of tokyo and all for of our capitals are committed to make this work. Outstanding. Thanks. Appreciate the answer. Like victor you beat me to the spot. Kia is a sponge of the nba will and be charging, barreling down the lane can you guys would be good to the spot and established position. Let me ask one follow up on that. Many of the issues that you talked about, shared values, theres also in the quad readout, theres a lot of talk about asean seem to dovetail with the rok southern policy toward southeast asia. Is this something the state department is encouraging the koreans to take a look at . I only footnote this by just a bit of a similarity between tpp and other institutional frameworks in the region that the koreans i think were interested then tpp in hurry came together and there was i think a moment with the koreans felt the outside looking in. Is this something the state department by the talking to koreans about hey, get in early, good to maybe take a look at this looks what are we on that basket of issues . For sure our two countries has been a lot of time recently talking about how our respective policies, whether its the indopacific strategy or koreas new southern policy, how they interact come how the overlap, how we can call them at each other. As you said, centrality is key to the four quad members in the region but as a set a think shias c. We are still at the point we were trying to get amongst the four of us how this should work, but Going Forward the minister mentioned publicly 50 of a quad plus, not for closing anything. He said that the want to be exclusive of insular but you want to get the fabric and make it tighter and make it clearer before we start to think about building it out. Thanks to take. Victor, sue i will come to you in second to kick off topic two, but victor any comments on the quad to close out topic one . Yes. As marc said, this started in 2004. I remember it well because it is my first at the nsc when the tsunami hit. It started out focus on Disaster Response come Disaster Response come disaster preparation it became an Informal Group being in 20052006 for there was regular consultations as marc said on others including iraq and afghanistan. Its wouldve played a large bowl. When i step back and look at this more broadly in terms of the alliances, a lot of people would look at this as the primary manifestation of an effort to network bilateral alliances in asia, to take what are basically line segment bilaterals and turned it into triangles, trilateral or quads or quad plus as marc said. There is no language about china. Its not inclusion but the sort of joke everybody said is when you get a group with u. S. Allies great the three search to look like something that is directed against china. I think either the language on this, the way they printed has been very good. It fits very well with the desire to multilateralize more stuff in asia. The fact that the talk about asean as you said is important because from the asean perspective it want to see any organization of big powers sort of squeezing out asean in the central role in terms of regional institutions in asia. They are sort of walking a good line right now, and he sorts of organizations are useful when they dont sort of say we were just going to focus on one thing. Its kind of a market. Amorphous, kind of like an amoeba. It is many different parts to it and it is functional more than it is institutional. The dangers of when you. [talking over each other] that institutionalization, regularization, things of that nature in a we talked about secretary. Are we talking about things like that. Then i think you start to get concerns about conclusion, exclusion. That leads us quickly, we wont get into it or today but a seen in this program about korea, china, u. S. , the squeeze, all of that. You can see that extent in decisionmaking and at least surveying the quad from a think the korean peninsula. Let me go to topic two, excellent work on topic one. Topic two coming up is north korea, october 10, party day. Celebration to sue, im going to come to you first. We have 10. 10. No major publications post handle it. Tell me if im right or wrong of that what you get through the question. Every five years theres usually something significant in terms of demonstration of military capabilities, something along those lines. And three, lots of open source chatter, imagery about something coming. Sue, dust mites in expert take a north korea. Im turning to you to ask the question, what are we seeing now, what i would like lucy and what are the takeaways that you think will come out of 10. 10 Celebrations Party day . Youre right. Were seeing in a few days but on this 10. 10 day i think they were come some sort strategic weapon will be displayed. Its important for kim jongun now to signal all strength and the fight at home and internationally to show despite all of its domestic difficulties come with the talk about in a program the last several months i think sanctions, covid, typhoons, triple whammy, that he is strong but he needs to display strength. Besides that kim jong himself addressed he would reveal a new security weapon sometime this year. This this is a perfect opportuny and as you mention you done your homework that every five years north korea does show something significant something new. Five years ago what is, 2015 parade on the seventh anniversary north korea showcase new icbm design, kn14. Five years by did that on the 65th anniversary they introduced a missile which was the first vessel designed to have a range that cricket guam. Could hit so we have him think he worked for the strategic weapon in the new years address. We have the current domestic difficulties so it feels he needs to project strength. We have this president presidet talked about on his fiveyear period so whether its a new soe m Nuclear Armed soe m or as mark pointed out a missile payload containing several warheads, its capable of obviously been aimed at a different target which makes it very difficult to intercept, makes the Missile Defense much were difficult. Whatever that is, he also talked about the imagery showing that it will be Something Big. Besides like something i think there going to show like parade all the stuff out this would show they are massproducing strategic weapons, scores of something. Then they have to show their something new come massproducing this stuff. Its all a warning to washington to whatever comes in november whether trump back in term or with Vice President biden, that north korea is producing more fissile material, continually expanding its Nuclear Missile arsenal and timeless washington side. Is teased that last piece of the walking a bit of a line in terms of they have domestic politics as you mentioned. They have this fiveyear anniversary come for lack of a better term, so theres a desire to do Something Big but they also are dealing with this in the middle of a u. S. Election, right . Unlike 15, unlike ten, right . Its a little different. What kind of line to the have to walk your . This is not a normal election year. Normally you would have seen and csis did a study which is a window, average of 4. 5 weeks. Before, but of the election. We wouldve seen something provocation but again its not a normal election year. There are several things to consider. First you would like to do with President Trump rather than biden. He probably wants to see trump get reelected, and in this case he doesnt want to make trouble for President Trump. That being a major provocation. I don