Various scenarios that could take place after the election involving delayed counting of ballots. This runs whenever. Im aaron david miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and welcome to carnegie connects, series of virtual conversations on issues of critical importance to americans and to the world. Our last session which took place on the afternoon of the first president ial as diverse of the question, what Foreign Policy figure in the election and our three panelists, charlie cook, jen saki and Amanda Carpenter i think myself included knew the answer to the question before we began. Not so today. The question we pose come will american democracy survive november 3 and beyond, is unanswerable. It may be overly dramatically rendered, but there are simply too many unknowns and too many uncertainties and fears about the consequences of this election. However, there are also hopes. Rachel kleinfeld has written and i would put myself in agreement with this, reflecting the factef that for many its hard to imagine that the u. S. Wont find a way to muddle through. It was argued in an jerk at times on sunday that we will definitely muddle through and then some. Let me quote what was said. D. Meanwhile, the scenarios that event spun out in reputable publications where trump induces republican state legislators to overrule the clear outcome in their states or militia violence intimidates the Supreme Court into vacating a Biden Victory bear no relationship to the Trump Presidency we have experienced. E are we granting infected by covid chief executive is not plotting a coup because a term like plotting in place capabilities that he conspicuously lacks. Maybe, but our conviction, i would argue, in faith of the american story and the american democracy which somehow magically and inextricably triumph and everything is going to turn out to be okay, you know, cannot and should not and never should be taken for granted. The founders didnt do, take it for granted and you did some of our greatest president s in leaders. Rarely has this republic been more at sea and few elections have taken place on a sense of greater crisis and uncertainty. Not to mention the problem of mail in ballots which will constitute huge percentage of the votes counted. I would count atug least five crises interlocked. The pandemic, the worst threat to Global Health since a great influence of 1918. An economic recession which has many economists scratching their heads with respect to structural problems and challenges in the economy. Polarization and civil unrest driven by racial class, political divisions. A loss of confidence in our institutions from the post office to the senses. And the president the first in American History who has already said repeatedly and publicly that he will not abide bysic the results of the election. As bart gellman has noted, trump may win or lose but he will never concede. And concession is more than just a ritualistic formulaic speech. Its a symbol that legitimizes peaceful transfereg of power in our electoral system. So, how bad could it get . Are any of the nightmare scenarios associated with conversation very likely . What other Court Challenges to the election . And do we have institutional guardrails, congress, the courts come the constitution to keep us on track . And is rachel has pointed out, how do we even begin to repair our broken political culture and social and political contract . Threats most important i think as Michael Steele has noted, quoting Martin Luther king, quote, our lives begin to in the day we become silent about the things that matter. So what can we do about all this . This challenge, this threat before it materializes, and if and when it does . Fortunately all is not lost. We are three extraordinary presentersdo to lead us out of e wilderness, or at least to guide us and ask the kinds of questions that we need to ask and create some realitybased answers. They are known to all of you. I will skip the resumes. I will only say Michael Steele is a former Lieutenant Governor state of maryland and Senior Advisor to the lincolnln projec. Bart gellman is a staff writer for the atlantic. Youve all seen his recent article and the author most recently of dark mirror. And, of course, our own Rachel Kleinfeld come senior fellow where she focuses, and i might add, excels in extraordinary fashion in writingti and speakig on issues from the rule of law to security to governance postconflict countries, fragile states and those in transition period. Round of q a from the audience. As far as the q a, ill read the instruction, well have a live q a section, use the live chat feature in youtube. Email Us Press Office at ceip. Org or tweet at us at carnegie and dow, using the use the carnegie connects. I droned on. Its particularly fun to be on a panel with rachel whom ive gotten to know in the past year or so and i agree with everything youve said, an incredible insightful talent and appreciate the work youre doing over at the atlantic. So lets get right into the question because i think its an important one, will democracy survive november 3rd and the short answer is, yeah, yeah. It will. It may look a little different, but it will. Its ironic that ive got some of my republican friends like senator mike lee saying were not a democracy and thats not the most important thing now. [laughter] lets set that crazy aside. But the fact of the matter the fact of the matter is, it really goes to the heart of the answer to the point, it survives if you want it to. It survives if we, the people want it to. And that quote from dr. King which for me is so salient and important right now, that you know, we really become our own end when we sort of turned our blind eye to things that matter. We, in this democracy, we end this grand american experiment when we decide no longer to care about the things that matter. So, folks, what matters to you . This election matters to a lot of americans. The outcome of this election matters to a lot of americans. But even more important than that is the various institutions that have safeguarded our rights and our liberties from our courts to our legislative branches, to ur executive leaders from president to county executives. They all have played a role in securing the promise thats laid out in our founding documents. You know, while the execution of those ideas and ideals have been flawed and problematic over the years, the underlying words still matter. We, the people, in order to form a more Perfect Union. It didnt say to form a Perfect Union or to say that we were. Were constantly striving in a republic to create a democracy. To create a voice and to give power to people. So when i look at this election, that is that is paramount for me. It is why i stand in opposition to my own party because i feel that theyve walked away from those ideas and those values for the musings and the rantings of one man. George washington proved that this country was not just about one person. It was not about one individual. Donald trump, unfortunately, is trying to prove him wrong. And i have faith in reliance, in the American People when they look at this and they see where we are and what this means to them and their families. More importantly, to the future of this country, that they will step into the power that is granted the granted to them in those founding words, we the people. The Court Challenges that we face right now, into having a legitimate election is how we shore up those institutions. So the writings of individuals like bart and the work of individuals like rachel and a lot of smart people across this country matters now more than ever before. Their ability to coalesce and condense ideas and facts and information, to inform the citizenry, not just about whats at stake, but the underlying truths that support whats at stake, that supports an open, free, fair election, where we see litigation now in places like texas where the governor said, well, we only want one dropoff box in a county of five Million People. Okay. Let that sink in. Now, they will say, oh, no, thats not Voter Suppression at all. Five Million People going to one location to drop off their ballot, yeah, those Voter Suppression. So being informed and engaged and understanding what the thing is youre seeing and hearing matters at these times and why a conversation like this with people way smarter than me, im just a political guy. Im just a guy, you know, happened to get elected. I know a little bit about that and politics, but i rely on my secretaries of state and you know, people who have studied this. The political scientists, the lawyers and, you know, the folks who deal with the machinations of these things in a legal and societal statement so we all know whats at stake. The prospect of what happens the next few weeks in the number between the election and the inauguration itself does matt matter. As ive said get a tall glass of your favorite adult beverage, sit back and watch the process unfold. Stay calm, and the reason i can be calm is because of the hard work and information thats being put out front to sort of help me understand exactly what to expect on that, on the back end. Yes, we have a president who is saying he wants his supporters to go be poll watchers. Lets be clear about that. They cant just show up and be poll watchers. Being a poll watcher is a specific regulated position in every county in this country. You have to the county parties and state parties have to identify ahead of time who the poll watchers are. I cant just show up at my neighborhood poll and start, you know, injecting myself into that process. So understanding what can be done, what cant be done, the consequences of violations that may occur does matter. And thats why conversations like this are so important and im so glad to be a part of them. So ill turn it over now so smarter people can lay down some smarter tracks. Michael, i must say your reputation has preceded, but and youve given us all, me for sure, a burst of enthusiasm and i wouldnt rule out problem and politicians, and its necessary, bart and rachel, and people like you in the political process, thats also going to be extremely important, but thanks again. Bart gellman, over to you. Well, i find michael reassuring and because its sort of voice of experience plus someone paying very, very close attention to whats happening now and can look at things with a bit of perspective. I am, nonetheless, somewhat more concerned, i think, about the prospect for a normal election or for getting through it intact at the far end. This is not going to be a normal election. Were already past that. Theres no chance of it. We have a president who has worked hard to delegitimize, that they cannot trust that the vote count will be accurate. Theres almost nothing that could under mine the electoral process more than that than to have an Authority Figure telling you that the one mechanism we have for deciding who rules us, who we, the people are delegating our political power to is broken. Its filled with fraud. Its rigged. Now, trump has said explicitly, not off the cuff, but in his prepared remarks as he accepted the republican nomination for president on august 24th, he said, the only way that we can lose this election is if the vote is rigged. So he has already ruled out the possibility that we, the people, democratically, by our own accurate volition, are going to remove him from power. I mean, in any other country, if the ruler said that, we would be very concerned. He also has given several versions, which weve all heard, of a refusal to guarantee that he would honor the results of the election and enable a peaceful transfer of power. The one most alarming to me is the one and you always have to be careful about proposing too much could he could herence one word salad that comes out of his mouth in reference to peaceful transfer of power. As you know, we have a very big problem with the ballots, and ballot fraud. I think he meant the mailin ballots. And then we would have a peaceful he said in the mid sentence, there wont be a transfer, frankly, there will be a continuation. Hes saying if the counting goes, the only way he thinks is acceptable, then hes reelected. So, i think we can safely say, based on his record and based on his actual words, that under no circumstances, literally, will trump concede defeat in this election. And that turns out to be a very big deal because concession is the way we have ended elections in this country for well over 100 years. Its the moment of concession that tells you the fight is over and that as a political scientist would say, its authority of the incoming president. Its that, more than any other single fact about the election, because we have no umpire. This is a game in which we dont have someone who keeps track of the score, keeps track of the time, blows the whistle and say and says, okay, well, you won and you lost. And it doesnt matter how much the players or the coaches belly ache about it, thats the result. Its over. And everyone understands that a decisive result has been achieved. People sometimes talk about the risk with trump or the concern even though it sounds fantastical he might lose the election and refuse to leave. In fact our system does know how to respond to that, he would be escorted out. He would have some help with his luggage and the oval office would have the next occupant. Thats not the concern. The concern is that trump could use the power of his office and the power of his control over his followers to prevent decisive result to be obtained, a decisive result against him. We have never had a president who has said amid the count that there is fraud happening. The vote is being rigged before our eyes and it is unclear how well respond to that. Especially if he uses his the power of his office to give an alternative official point of view. Not just his twitter account, not just the words that come out when he faces a microphone, but actions of the government itself. Suppose that the Justice Department announces a fraud in progress and an immediate investigation as the vote is being counted. Suppose votes are impounded as evidence. Suppose the postal inspectors find irregularity with the mail vote and suspend delivery of mail ballots or decides to reprocess everything to make sure that a valid postmark has been applied, its actually not the case that the Postal Service requires by regulation that a postmark be stamped on every letter. Sometimes theyre not. But election laws in some states require a postmark for mailin ballots. Suppose the postal inspectors say, well, lets make sure we reprocess these and theres a valid and ledgeable postmark and takes things past the deadline. Trump has power of law that might be abused and might be found to be unlawful eventually after the fact, but we dont get doovers in the election and after the fact is not good enough. Theres also what happens on election day itself. This is the first election in 40 years thats taking place without the oversight of a federal court over republican quote, unquote, ballot security measures, which is another word for Voter Suppression. There is a pretext of guarding against voter fraud. Voter fraud is almost entirely a fekz fictional concept. Its vanishingly rare. There was a good study done of one billion votes cast, between 2000 and 2014. Of which 31 were identified as fraudulent. The 31 out of 1 one billion. This is the scale of the problem, if you can call it a problem. It has no affecting an election. On the ground of voter fraud, pretext, republicans used to have off duty police and sheriffs, and former military folks and large people wearing guns, confronting voters, reviewing their credentials, its a felony to vote if youre not eligible or in the wrong precinct. Putting up big signs generally intimidating people of color in minority neighborhoods and trump has, for example, called out philadelphia which happens to be a large democratic strong hold and an essential swing state that he must win to be president , and he may be behind in the polls in pennsylvania, but if he can shave a couple points off by intimidating voters on the day of, and by causing mailin votes not to be counted, then who knows where that goes . And then theres what michael mentioned the whole election day and the swearing in of the new president. There are milestones in that process who decides who the president is going to be. Normally theyre mere for malties, even the voter would be for given, in december, and january 6th is a big day when Congress Formally counts the votes that have been cast by the Electoral College and there are many opportunities, as i described in my piece for the atlantic, for a candidate who has insolence over fellow members of the party to interfere with the normal functioning of the Electoral College and the count. If you take trump seriously as a man who will not concede and who is prepared to breach all norms and boundaries, as long as he can get away with it, then the question is going to be how far the American Public will allow him to go. How far fellow members of his party will allow him to go. If you asked the average republican senator or member of the house or governor or state legislator whether they would allow the president to steal the election, whether they would allow the president to use his power to keep control of his office and notwithstanding the votes of the people, they would all say no. And they would probably mean it. But if they are committed already, as they are, to a narrative of voter fraud, and if trump says, its not that ive been outvoted, its that the count has been poisoned, im not as confident that i know how they will respond and thats the concern that we have to guard against and thats why every citizen needs to think about what his or her relationship is to this election, whether its as a voter. As a poll watcher, whether their job has anything to do with security in the election. Everyone needs to be thinking abou