Developers in the 2018 disappearance of the dprk ambassador who is now in south korea apparently as those continuing development in the wake of the reported shooting death of the south Korean Ministry of oceans and fisheries at sea apparently advance of the north koreans. Less bonus coverage of important u. S. Rok alliance issues including the upcoming economic dialogue started by the way by yours truly and the new vice ministerial lifestyle by possibly. Our very special guest this week is also our most frequent guest and are only repeat guest by the way is perfectly positioned to give us critical insights into these topics and more. Someone everyone knows well, Deputy Assistant secretary for koreajapan marc knapper, a graduate of princeton. We all know his bio well. Look it up on by which is to refresh of some highlights. Charles a fair u. S. Embassy so, Director Office of Japanese Affairs at the state Department Contract of Indian Affairs and multiple assignments throughout asia with language in korean, Language Skills excuse me, korean, japanese and the beast. And, of course, my favorite of all time, representative to the spent fuel team at the nuclear facility. But it is going as north korea. Sadly, the dinos were running away legacies of but marc, welcome to the show. Thanks ambassador is great to be a very thanks for having me back. Appreciate it. Looking forward to it affects a coming on again. Quickly turning to our regulars, victor cha, head of the csis can reach her program former director at the nsc wish to white house on korea and victor, new coffee mug . All right, good stuff. Last but not least doctor sue mi terry, todd at columbia. I see pictures book, i see the coffee mug, looking good. Welcome back to the program. Looking for to your insights as well. Without lets get to it. This week secretary pompeo travel to japan. He was originally slated to also stop in korea. I believe mongolia. Those are put off for a later date. Japan trip held come to back big highlights and what to ask mark never about this. First meeting with the new japanese Prime Minister marc knapper and also a meeting with the quad in tokyo which is at the foreign minister level with the indians, the australians, japanese and, of course, us as well, the United States. Mark, lets take these in turn. Your impressions from the suga meeting. What of the big takeaways for the u. S. Japan Alliance Going forward . Thank you. First off let me just say it was really a pity the secretary couldnt continue on with this whole program to as you said, both seoul and which is given everything is going on at the time with the President Health i think regrettable but understandable. I hope he had to reschedule. As you said he did make tokyo. Significant he was able to meet with the new japanese Prime Minister suga and individually we know well. We did a great relationship with him when he was chief cabinet secretary and, in fact, when suga was chief, he was in washington met with Vice President pence and secretary pompeo. This is a chance to continue to build on a relationship that was already solid and believe the Prime Minister, the new Prime Minister is devotee of the alliance come soon as they committed to ensuring that the u. S. Japan relationship remains the cornerstone of both of our National Security and foreign policies in the region. And we are looking for to deepening further for the relap over the months ahead. As for the quad, it was the second time we had met at the foreign minister level. This is important. We had yesterday and Indian Foreign ministers flight and just for and so billy i think a pity was went to see it go forward but it was a pretty grueling schedule. I think the sector spent 20 hours on the ground before turning red and coming back year. For us the quad, this really does represent an understanding among our four countries about the need for democracy, liberals, economy such as yourselves to get together and discuss our shared values come to discuss our shared interests, to discuss ways in which we can cooperate to address the challenges we all face in the region and around the world. Thanks for the excellent overview. Really appreciate the outstanding readout. Let me just since his is show primarily focused on korea but also obviously northeast asian and asian writ large security issues, geopolitical issues, what should the koreans take away from this . What should seoul take away from this in terms of new japanese Prime Minister, obviously something that comes to top of mind is so tokyo relations and the trilateral relationship between washingtonseoul and tokyo. I think Prime Minister suga as the same with many other japanese leaders recognizes the importance of constructive and productive relations, the trilateral relationship. And among the top issues that we do share is meeting the north korean challenge. I would fully expect that Going ForwardPrime Minister suga will work with us comport with the republic of korea on our shared challenge with pyongyang. But at the same time were on the lookout for other areas in which we can cooperate. Its important for us began to realize we share values, we sure goals and hopefully as we proceed, seoul and tokyo will find a a way to address their n issues in a way that does respect the past that does pave the way to a brighter future. Do you sense any opportunity for improving ties for improving trilateral relations between the three nations in the wake of the new Prime Minister and secretary pompeo strip to the region . The relationship, trilateral relationship was among topics that the secretary raised notches with Prime Minister suga but with the foreign minister. As with any sort of new slate, new leader, that does present always opportunistic with the skillful and how we deal with it. Sort a lot of our efforts to work with our partners in the region are not always on the front page of news. We try to be discreet often when we deal with these matters but we do definitely see opportunity to try and improve things. I think we were all heartened by the very warm exchange of greetings between president moon and the new Prime Minister. We will start here and see how things go. Okay. Thanks, thanks, marc, for the ry interesting take. Victor, i want to come to youn the trilateral and seoul tokyo pews. Well get to the point in the second. Victor, comments on this basket that issue. So tokyo trilateral relationshi relationship. Sure. So marc is being diplomatic because hes a diplomat. This relationship is about as bad as i would a book on this relationship. Its about as bad as its ever been, unfortunately. I do think theres an opportunity with a new Prime Minister. I dont think abe ever intended for the relationship to be better he spoke about korea at csis. He did his best on the deal. He wanted to build relations with korea but so much stuff happens and ended up just he as primus just became an obstacle to any possible preventive relations. The fact that suga is now the Company Without suga is almost like abe to come first an opportunity. Just because the person was changed. So its great as mark said pompeo was in tokyo and raise a trilateral. Its important that happen. On the korean side that has to be, i think there has to be, i mean, the president , it was good that he, they make positive statements with suga, positive forwardlooking. I think the main thing is they have to see it, they have to see this improvement of relations as important even if its not conducive to any sort of improvement in interkorean relations. They are focused like a laser on interkorean relations and peace regime stuff in the urine have to have left. In fact, president moon spoke at another event last night where the primary thing he talked about after he thank everybody for inviting him can , do you tk he will he talked about was peace declaration. The blue house needs to think about, cannot see trilateral and so tokyo relations as just being irrelevant to that goal. If thats the goal there after they need to understand this is important. In the river to achieve that goal. You have to get consensus from everybody. If thats the goal you want to achieve. Thats sort of the primary dilemma right now is they see no need for it because they dont see it as a conducive to the goal there trying to achieve, which is this declaration. Victor, excellent insights and analysis. You also teed up and cheese our inner korean topic that would be coming here shortly. Before we get to that, marc, back to you kumquat. You gave an overview of the lay down lots of discussion about values, importance that these are the Foreign Ministers came to tokyo to engage in a really important dialogue at a critical time. In the background briefing on, nothing was on the return trip by the secretary, there were quotes from Senior State Department officials on background who talked about the secretary would move to institutionalize this framework. So two questions here. What does that mean in terms of institutionalizing . What can we expect to see Going Forward from this . Thanks. Just a brief history of the quad. It started with back in 2004 actually as our four countries cooperate in the wake of the boxing day, december 26 earthquake and tsunami in the indian ocean. Over the years eidl of the dream of the quad is waxed and waned and the recent waxing has been a result of this real recognition that our four countries tshirt enters, share values. Really when you talk about it i think it needs to come up with a more rigorous schedule of meetings at various levels, notches foreign minister but at lower levels, but also to come up with Something Like a work n which would include a number of cooperative efforts in different areas whether its security, infrastructure development, whether its Traditional Development assistance, whether its in the energy sphere, connectivity, road building, that kind thing. Still early and it still meant to be sort of envisioning a fabric would connect all of us throughout the region, and to perhaps the question youve got about the participation, i mean, the quad was never meant to be exclusive. Its not meant to be insular and keep others out rather. I think its meant to have the countries aspire to join, country that to share the values of those that occur involved. Well see how it goes from here, but very positive mood, i think, coming out of tokyo and all four of our capitals are committed to make this work. Outstanding, thanks, marc. Really appreciate the answer. Like victor you beat me to the spot. He is a sponge of the mps will and i would be charging at this point, nearly doubling, because would be because the spot and establish position. Let me ask one follow up on that. Many of the issues that you talked about, shared values, theres also in the quad readout theres a lot of talk about asean. It seems to dovetail with the rok southern policy toward southeast asia. Is this something the state department is encouraging the koreans to take a look at . I only footnote this by just a bit of a similarity between tpp and other institutional frameworks in the region, that the koreans i think were interested, then tpp sort of in her came together, and it was, you know, a moment where the koreans felt it might be outside looking in. This is something that the state Department Might be talking to the greens about hey, get in early, good to maybe take a look at this, where are we on that basket of vicious . For sure, our two countries has spent a lot of time recently talking about how our respective policies come with its the indopacific strategy for our part or koreas new set of policy, how they interact, how to overlap, how we can help each other. And as you said, asean centrality, certainly is key to the four quad members for policy in the region but as i said we just have to see. We are still at the point now where were trying to figure out amongst the four of us how this should work, but Going Forward, the minister mentioned i think publicly that the idea of the quad plus, we are foreclosing anything at this point. Dont want to be exclusive but you want to sort of get this fabric in and make it tighter and clearer before we start to think about building it out. Thanks, marc. Victor, going to come to you. Two of the come to in second two kick off another topic but victor any comments on the quad to close out this topic . As marc said the start in 2004. I remember it well because of my first week at the nsc when the tsunami hit. Started out focus on disaster response, disaster preparation. Then it became sort of an Informal Group being in 2005 and 2006 with those regular consultations as marc said on other topics, including iraq and afghanistan. It played a large bowl. When i step back and look at this more broadly in terms of the alliances, a lot of people would look at this as the primary manifestation of an effort to network, are bilateral alliances in asia, to take what are basically line segments bilateral and turn them into triangles, trilateralism or quads or quad plus as marc said. I mean, very clearly there is no language about china in the quad. Quad. Its all about inclusion in all this, but the sort of joke that everybody says is when you get a group of u. S. Allies greater than three together, it starts to look like, it starts to look like something thats directed against china. But i think either language on this, the way they framed it has been very good. It fits very well with the desire to multilateral lies or stuff in asia. The fact that talk about asean as you said, marc, is important because from asean perspective they dont want to see in the organization of big powers sort of squeezing out asean in their central role in terms of regional institutions in asia. They are sleepwalking a good line right now, and these sorts of organizations are useful when they dont sort of say, which is going to focus on one thing. Its kind of a, kind of like an amoeba. It is many different parts to it and its functional more than it is institutional, and so i think the dangers is when you Start Talking institutionalization, regularization, things of that nature, then we talked about a secretary, talking things like that . Then i think he started to concerns about inclusion, exclusion. That lay just quickly, we will get into it here today but a timehonored scene in this program about korea, china, u. S. , the squeeze, all of that. You can see that extent in decisionmaking and at least surveying the quad from the korean peninsula. All right, let me go to topic two. Excellent work on topic one. Topic two coming up is north korea october 10, party day. Celebration. Sue, im going to come to you first. We have 1010 marks party day. No major provocations. To me if im right or wrong of that when you i get to the que. Every five years theres usually something significant in terms of demonstration of military capability, something along those lines. And three, lots of open source chatter, imagery, about something coming. So, sue, thats might in expert take a north korea. Im turning to you to ask the question, what do we see now . What are we likely to see . What of the takeaways that you think will come out of 10. 10 celebration, party day . Thanks. Youre right, i think we are in a few days, but they were on this 10. 10 day i i think they would destroy something become some sort of a strategic weapon will be displayed. I think its very important for kim jongun right now to signal both strength and defiance at home and internationally, to show that despite all of his domestic difficulties, troubles we can talk about in a program in the last several, two months i think, sanctions, covid, typhoons, the triple whammy, that he is strong, the regime remains strong and he needs to display strength. On the 65th anniversary they introduced a new missile which was the first missile designed to have a range that could hit france so we have generals saying that you will see strategic weapon in the new years address. If he feels he needs to project strength. We have this president we talked about, this fiveyear showcasing of something new so whether its a new as lbm, Nuclear Armed s lbm or its as marcus pointed out a more missile payload containing several warheads, its capable of obviously being aimed at the different target which makes it very difficult to intercept, makes the Missile Defense that much more difficult. Whatever that is still have to show something and you also talked about the imagery showing that its going to be Something Big so besides showing that there also going to pull a whole lot of other stuff out to show that theyre massproducing particular weapons. Scores of something so then they have to show they have something new. They are massproducing this stuff or a warning to washington to whoever comes in november whether trunk second term or whether Vice President biden that north korea is producing more fissile material. Its expanding its Nuclear Missile arsenal and its not on washingtons side sue teased that last piece out. They are walking a bit of a line here right, in terms of they got domestic politics as youmentioned , theyve got this fiveyear anniversary for lack of a better term so theres a desire to do Something Big, but they also are dealing with this in the middle of aus election. Unlike 15, unlike 10, its a little different. What kind of line do theyhave to walk here . This is not a normal election year. Normally youwould not have this conversation because csi as did a study , before or right after the election we wo