Nation is preoccupied with covid and the economic recovery and Foreign Policy tends to be an inside the beltway issue and not to figure prominently in the choices, the results of that will have a decisive impact on how america acts in the world and how the world evaluates the consequences of those actions but i think that its clear we are in a crossroads. Donald trump has played the role of disruptors in this postcold war predecessor and grazing authoritarians and rejectin rejg alliances and multilateral diplomacy and embarking on what could only be described as a wholesale withdraw from so many enterprises. The paris climate, jc poa, the iran nuclear agreement, unesco and who. Its not that the disruption is by admonition always bad. Theres nothing to replace it. Its bad if its followed by policies that dont serve the national interest. And its bad if its done tethered to political interests. Biden on the other hand offers a different approach, or we would suspect. I would turn to the more traditional. Whether it proves to be a restoration of traditional role in the world he wants to put the u. S. Back at the table. We will talk to our panel that the table has changed. Covid is without exaggerating the most consequential event in the world. Its the second world war. And theres no going back easily to the way things work. China is probably emerging stronger economically. Putin is unchecked. Weve got a u. S. Embassy in jerusalem, the arab states are making peace through normalization. Bashar alassad is in power and globalization has taken huge hits. One additional point, biden is going to confront the most serious challenge since franklin roosevelt. Without the benefit, the world war that left america stronger and with more influence in the world abroad. And i raise the final issue is it possible for the United States even how badly polarized we are to create a measure of consensus on the policy that is durable. So many questions with apologies to clint eastwood, we have used the good, the bad and the ugly trope. We could agree on the bed and the ugly but what about the good. What are the accomplishments. What about the last four years as both alienated and delighted allies and adversaries. How bad has it been for the u. S. And who would our allies and adversaries preferred as the next president and finally, what are the expectations of those adversaries for the Biden Administration, should there be one. Fortunately, i dont have to answer these questions. We have extraordinary presenters. They are all extremely well known to you. The chief International Anger of the awardwinning flagship Global Affairs program. The correspondent spent a long career including in bangkok, jerusalem, moscow, paris, prague and yes even in washington, d. C. Finally, the beijing bureau chief for the economist and author of the publications wonderful column. So, five minutes each. We have a hard stop at 915. There will be a time for qb and day at the end. Without further ado, im going to turn the virtual floor over to you. [inaudible] it doesnt really look that good from this side as the allies are looking at whats going to happen no matter who becomes the next president. I think that we wake up the next days and see a rise and dramatic surge in cases and in france we see whats happened but left one woman beheaded in a church and to others killed. People in other parts of the world now because of covid i think are seeking the confidence and the competence as some become necessary as they see that its being mismanaged by so many around the world. But there are standouts where its being managed. We hear that it will not be defeated. That is global coordination and cooperation and what the world expects of the United States. There is no coordinated plan to have a coalition like with ebola and before that. This is what we are faced with right now. You mentioned some of these major treaties and agreements that have been disrupted and thrown out the window. Most people believe they are correct about the nuclear breakouts from iran and whether its the climate accord and rest of the world with the major electoral issue for the rest of the world. Whether its messing around with the nato alliance, seeming to embrace the time when autocracy and authoritarian is moving further and further into the western space this is a big worry and in the middle east where you have the activities and to engineer these organizations between and issues with sudan. We have iran as a country that many people see needs to be dealt with in a way to sustain it but one of the recent polls that was taken about shows an alarming 49 of people do not believe that either President Trump or biden would be good for the middle east and the remainder believe biden would be better but that they did not necessarily embrace. Only 12 believe trump would be better for the middle east. The majority of those do not agree with moving the embassy particularly this still unresolved major issue in that part of the world and that is the is really palestinian conflict. I think most people want to see a member that gets into the traditional role of leading the coalitions to make the world a better place. Thank you so much. Stephen, to you. After those wonderful contributions, i shall do my best. The problem, you are right, a great disruptor. The problem is when its rolled down again, the pieces never fall down in the same place. The world has changed and whatever trump has done or hasnt done, he hasnt had much effect on the rise of china which im sure david will talk eloquently about. He hasnt, you know, there was a lot of patronizing of the American Performance in covid by europe and now europe is in a state of infection thats probably worse than the United States. No democratic government will come out of this unharmed or on blamed even though what theyve all tried to do is balance. Its not easy, and i dont think anyone has done terribly well in a liberal Democratic Society than perhaps japan, maybe south korea. But europeans look at trump as a kind of nightmare i would say. Central european polls very much appreciate trump was the president that put mor more amen troops and military effort into europe and nato particularly along the russian border to enhance the deterrent so they are quite fond of the authoritarianism and poland and hungary as a separate case. But in terms of what hes actually done as opposed to what he said, hes been good for the deterrent. But he has seen europe as a kind of predator and a rival. He believes somehow they were set up to confront the United States and not to be an ally. He has supported brec the separn of the European Union and all the way back to the heads of france and germany. I think that he finally stopped asking that question. But the unpredictability for what your europe does that hase very, very anxious and at the same time, a Biden Victory would feel like the return to civilization. Despite the words that would ensue in these meetings because after all, biden is a kind of transatlantic, one that we havent had for decades. Despite all that, america has become so polarized that the Foreign Policy has become polarized and theyve lost consistency. Biden who will be 78 becomes president would probably only be a one term president and shares some of the same views as President Trump, so the contingency constantly and a kind of wariness. The last point i would make if people are worried about asking a lot about china, which makes me nervous, and also that he would be a kind of and to european and of autonomy and a Stronger Security and Foreign Policy in europe like being put back into the comfortable band and i will leave it there. Whether trump is a headline or a trend line is fascinating and you could easily end up with a moderated version of donald trump. And a more tactical one. David, over to you. To set the context covering the European Union i would like to look at why even if joe biden wins its going to be like that elation that we saw in 2008 when barack obama was elected. Certainly even here in asia it represented a reset. Under george w. Bush, america used its strength without consulting and without listening for the simple american solution whether it was iraq or afghanistan. I think we may have lost david. Can you hear me . We can. So obama was empathetic and was going to consult. Why is this not going to be the same because the problem isnt that its a strong country with Simple Solutions but the problems hes revealed ways that america itself domestically is a broken country. That is the lesson people here draw from the American Performance is that america is that individualism that they know that is a selfishness. Even if joe biden is elected president , for europeans, to call that bluff and say you complained about the lack of coalitions. Lets do some stuff to confront china. There would be a sense of accountability if paying at least half the price for Everything Else europeans paid so much. But stephen is absolutely right. The rest of the world cant help but think that maybe in four years time that 40 of americans would have lost faith with donald trump with a kind of disbelief with much of the rest of the world but there is still a tremendously divided america almost 50 50 that cannot be wished away. Its what he represents. Trump america and the trumps americans. And finally how is this used in china. The party isnt interested in telling a story about accountability at the ballot box. So the propaganda is all about chaos and money and corruption and the fact that the democracy is basically a cynical lie but its the gam a game in which the powerful and the rich ignore the real interests of the ordinary people and to see their own selfish interests. The message from the Propaganda Machine is that it doesnt really matter. The ability to keep your people safe and mobilize and organize. Thats also not true because liberal democracy on the island public of taiwan with fewer than 10 deaths from covid a very liberal democracy. Theres nothing inherently good about covid but its the case that americans handling covid means no matter who wins on tuesday there will not be a barack obama reset with lingering unhappiness and questions about trumps america. C fascinating. The folks who study certain authoritarian colonies and democratic colonies did better than others with covid argued that there were two or three factors. One is respect for capacity and the second is state and government and the willingness and your point about individualism in america and their antiauthority passed and a refusal to accept comprehensive solutions to problems and its no wonder we dont have a sensible gun control policy here or health care. Thats critically important i think in the way other countries are going to look at the United States and i think its critically important. We welcome back to this on the issue of whether or not they are conflicted on who they want as their next president. But let me ask a few questions. Steve this one is for you. You referred to the fact that one of the more positive aspects of trumps among Central European states has been deterrence. We talked a lot here even in the brief 20 minutes we have been discussing about what the bad and the ugly is with respect to trumps policy so let me ask a question on the cusp of this election. Other than deterrence with respect to nato summit criticized the way hes gone about that as well. Are there any redemptive aspects over the course of the last four years . Steve we will start with you but i also want to ask david and christiane. I think one has to be cooled about all of this and i think trump has drawn attention to chinas manipulation of trading regimes and misuse of the wto and the Security Threat of the chinese scientific progress with Artificial Intelligence and huawei and the water persons to the western world. This is something obama wasnt interested in i would say and trump overstates but the fact is he has gotten threatened to pull out of huawei and germany he has broken up europe which now views china as a systemic rival which is stronger language than before. The german business groups in germany have a stronger voice and a warning against china trade so i think on china also there has been a kind of wakeup call that trump has trumpeted maybe much too strongly and frankly offered to borrow the foreignpolicy chief of the eu u. S. Dialogue on china and he did a very good thing. I think it might work better under a Biden Administration but in principle its the way one should respond. I think that is something and also if you look at whats gone on for a long time obama worried north korea and whatever is happened there they are still building up stuff but there hasnt been the war that obama was really worried about. Iran i think its a big problem. They are lots of things he hasnt done well but youre asking me to look on the bright side of life. I did and asked the question to suggest theres a symmetrical balance between foreignpolicy and some of the incompetencies ive seen. Okay christiane to you. Look i cant be an appalled as an observer and a reporter. I see the values and i believe in the United States unique in all the countries of the world. Its quality is based on values that are commonly shared among human rights and those in coalitions and alliances and when President Trump one to the shock of everybody in the United States and the world of the leaders and whatever messages congratulating the United States im a new presidency the only person who stood up for valor use was the name the woman by the name of Angela Merkel and congratulated the president and said in the relationship will depend on our joint adherence to our alliances and everything that we have stood for since the defeat of fascism and that terrible world war ii. It was the way she stood up for what we expect from the United States. We expect to believe in what America Sells around the world which is a unique set of values and those are over the last four years for sure and i believe the as germany is concerned trump has polled 12,000 out of germany what does that say to europe and the way they look at the United States coming up . President obama said it better than i can that President Trump is going on way out is really saying you know kim jongun wants me to one in president xi wants me to win and president putin wants me to win and obama said yeah but thats nothing to brag about. North korea i covered them. I was in singapore at those summit. It was exciting and yes we havent had a war but were we ever going to have a war . We also havent had a retraction of north Koreas Nuclear buildup and patrick have the opposite. Its building up and building up and building up. I think i remember during the height of the georges v. Ko bush regime administration when the world did not like the United States because the iraq war and now we are seeing polls have shown that the United States is as unpopular around the world as it was at the height of the unpopular time in 2000. We saw come back after the election of barack obama and are kasich can bounce back again but i agree nobody knows if america will want to be or be able to be a force for governors and Coalition Building and keeping the world on the basic even keel. The world has changed and i think people are asking right now if we can go back to that trust in america and are ever series know where the red lines are. Is america still the country to be counted on . We are going to get to that question. David to follow up for a move on what has trump gotten right about china or from your perspective any of the issues in asia . Was it naive to engaged with china and did we imagine that china was going to be, jeffersonian democracy . I think some of that debate is a bit overblown and frankly if china was willing to engage of course were going to engage. Id focus on the word engaged when i look back. Unfortunately it did attach things that Vice President joe biden said about china and its complacency. Biden was a champion of the idea that being a democracy and being america gives you a head start that china will never catch. America has become a secret source of freedom and free speech and freedom of thought and university which give you an innovative edge and i think that complacency in the South China Sea was the biggest thing of the china policy and certainly President Trump did not complain about china but its not automatically foreignpolicy. Sometimes its opposite and other times its not a bear would need to be really careful about breaking the Trump Administration china policy apart from the president s china policy. One of the things that made it hard for beijing in trumps first term is there such a gap to join the agenda of the genuine who really do want to become if not decoupled from china to stop assisting chinas rise. They are in the National Security council and the pentagon. You have a principled problem with the way that china conducts globalization and policy toward taiwan the way that its locking up uyghurs and xinjiang and crushing freedom in hong kong. The Trump Administration must confront that. The problem is President T