Clipper and George Hammond culture of the amenities forum which organized todays event. Im happy to welcome back a. J. Baime if we had them here you in half or so ago from the accidental president. His last book, and this time we have a virtually from his home, and were going to talk about his new book about a 1940 election. Were going back 72 years to another electionyear and you will be amazed at exactly how similar it sound in some ways. Another with a different but in some ways. Whats different is the politicians were all younger than they are today. Thats one big difference. But a. J. , take it away and tell us about the overview of the book. Just a very good read by the way. Very good read. Outstanding. I want to say a couple things first. Thank you so much for having the. The the Commonwealth Club is a wonderful place to be and you are doing this virtual. A lot of people are going to painandsuffering china for myself im just reminding why i fell in love with reading when i was six because books can really transport you to another time and place and to me during all of this has been a blessing. Regarding my last moment with you, id always tried this book back in 2017 when i talked about the accidental president and i plant this book to come out during a 2020 a 20 election cye because i thought this this isk about the making 40 election, United States. It will give me an opportunity to talk about things that matter. But two things happen that he didnt expect. One is doing the research i found whole bunch of material i really didnt expect to find and secondly elements the life conspired in such a way that you begin to feel as a is writing the book and everything is writing about was no longer taking place in 1948 people taking place now. I i would suggest a few pictures to give an idea, concrete idea when talk that the 9040 is is a first election to plant on the television machine. What youre looking at is a picture of the first election broadcast on cbs. Here we are a new kind meeting is going to change the way elections take place and, of course, today we have social media doing the exact same thing. Heres an image that is going to start at you. I it startles you. In 1948 the was a massive surge surge in White Nationalism in the United States. This is charlottesville. In 1940 there was a massive, massive wave of violence against african americans, this particular picture youre looking at come this is a man named isaac wickard, four hours after he was released honorably discharged from the United States army, served in world war ii. He had an altercation with a white Police Officer and he was blinded. He became you see them the escorted by joe come the heavyweight fighter. Orson welles got fired from his radio show for speaking out for isaac wickard. The whole story of what happened to him became politicized and became part of the political conversation in a way we are feeling exactly the same way now with george floyd. The alger hiss story breaks during 1940 election. Sadly there so much talk in washington and people all over the country trying to figure out how is there a communist conspiracy infiltrating washington . What is the fact, what is the conspiracy theory. These are conversations there having in washington and all over the country among the electric in 1940, serving that feels relevant today. To relevant. I know. Fbi on betrayal of a major president ial political candidate with regard to a possible russian conspiracy. Heres Henry Wallace come such a fascinating picture. I could look at this picture forever. Theres so much to see. But was wallace a stooge for the kremlin and moscow . Was a . Now we know he wasnt but again this is the conversation 1940 and thats relevant today. This is the berlin airlift. Truman launches the berlin airlift. This is not an apples to apples comparison but during the election cycle in 48 we were nose to nose with the soviets on the break world war iii, fear and anxiety gripped the country and that is happening in our election cycle now for completely different reason and that is exactly why im talking to you from my Basement Office and not on the stage. A couple more to go. This is one picture that should not feel relevant today and we should all cross our fingers and toes that it remains that we get its amazing to think during the 1940 election cycle Nuclear Bombs are literally going off as we are testing larger and larger weapons in the pacific. Ultimately we get to harry truman. One thing i want to make one last point before i start very briefly talking about the candidates the 48, i want to give you one quote from the most surprising document i found through all my years of research. This is a Republican National Committee Memorandum written november 15, 1947 so just about eggs exactly give before the 40 election. I will give you one since. The United States of america is fair game for moscow and has been for years. And as far as anyone willing to see figure 1948 will be the year of which soviet russia will do everything in its power to influence the election here. Certainly that feels familiar. Yes. Im going to give you a brief introduction of the four four candidates and a conversation will begin. What i really want to do in this book is follow all four candidates to their campaign odysseys in real time, so the reader can really experience what america was experiencing but also candidates themselves. The america they were seeing all leading up to this climactic moment on november 2, 1948. So heres Henry Wallace. Wallace was an extraordinary candidate who won no states but a story assassinating and we can learn a lot from it. Wallace was of one candidate, breaks away from the democrats and says hey, we have this new cold war, and is not the soviets fault. Its harry truman fault. He says that only women in this country who can stop world war iii and thats me. He becomes a candidate of protest and to me hes really the beginning of an antiestablishment movement that goes right through the 1950s and 60s. You can can see on the left that people seeger singing and you heard a lot from him in the future. Wallace politics were so controversial, when he goes to campaign in the south he says i will not speak in any hall were an africanamerican or caucasian american cant sit next to each other. I will not stay in any hotel word africanamerican is not permitted. When he gets to the south there are riots, the stabbing. He routinely held with tomatoes. It was a very Brave Campaign that he ran. Even as Vice President going into, just to go through the entrance to a church, got in a physical altercation, a violent one with the police trying to stop him. He was a u. S. Senator. I was in amazing detail. You can see in the previous picture is amazing to thank there were times during those rallies where wallace would stand in front of crowds ever throwing eggs at him saying i want some evidence that ive in the United States of america. Okay, Strom Thurmond. During the 1948 election truman was the first president ial candidate to really go after the africanamerican vote. Segregates the military. He becomes the first president to address the naacp and the first president to hold a Campaign Rally in harlem, the spiritual home of black america. Not everybody is happy about this. So Strom Thurmond, were here, government South Carolina launches, headset this new dixie Dixiecrat Party. Hes now made to run for president and going to give you one brief quote of what he is saying in this moment. On this night he says, i want to tell you ladies and gentlemen, that theres not enough troops in the army to force the southern people to break down segregation and admit that negro race into our movie theaters, swimming pools, homes and churches. He wins for states on that platform of prosegregation White Supremacy. Finally thomas dewey. Everybody believes is about to become the first republican president in 16 years. We will talk about him quite a bit so i will not say much note except for this. This is the one time the two candidates meet during the election cycle, and harry truman leans over and says, tom, when you move into the white house do something about the plumbing, will you . They were real issues with the white house, right . There were, in fact. The white house was literally crumbling. And back to truman. We are going to talk a lot about him so why dont we start our conversation, and i hope that was useful. Thats great. We can put up the pictures. We can start with dewey. Thomas dewey, new york governor, young, right, in his mid40s, Something Like that when he was running here get always been government before. He did what giuliani obviously imitated him but he took the road to public power that giuliani tried to do, which was to be attorney general, attack the mafia, when cases, then go on either to new york province, new york governor for a while, and i know that giuliani played that card because when he was attorney general he came to speak in new york at a place and he made it very clear he was going to play exactly the same political thing because giuliani had his eye on his white house as everyone knows. Hes only got the back room and the white house now, but he does get to go there. In any case, thomas dewey quite a character and he had been an attack dog as you said earlier on when he went by demand a different campaign. Maybe talk about that. He was 30point ahead come Something Like that at the beginning of the campaign. Dewey, to me i was very fascinated how fascinating i found him. I thought he is going to be a byproduct of the story, a minor character. Hes not. Hes very much a major character in the story that i wrote because the way that he came up into prominence was so extraordinary turkeys from a smalltown, comes comes out of nowhere, michigan, comes down and becomes a young prosecutor in new york city and finds himself on this trail, really, brilliant prosecuting lawyer and he becomes this figure takes and the mosque in the 1930s during the depression when there was a lot of mafia round. He became famous as a prosecutor. How does that happen, that in two different movies is portrayed by Humphrey Bogart on the big screen. People used to say thomas dewey could successfully prosecute thats how we came up, just like giuliani. By the time 1948 came he had already been come this is his third president ial candidate because he had been the guy that nobody said all the way back in 1940, the year the you the future the Republican Party. By the time 1948 comes he decides hes not going to rent because he ran in 1944 and is lost. He came close to defeating fdr than anybody did but he felt in his heart he didnt want to suffer through losing a president ial election twice. He had to be convinced to run and so this story becomes very [inaudible] and obviously anyone thought, your book is very clear that everyone thought, all the media, all the newspapers predicted that he is going to win. Not a single newspaper predicted to truman was going to win come Something Like that, at least not of the major ones. Media was on his side and they spent time afterwards wondering why they got it all wrong, just like people in the media have done that in the 2016 election. How did we get that wrong with polls and everything . Polls were just starting then. That was another element, at least their influence. Im sure they had polls before that but they became much more influential. In the era, just media feels make to us now. At that time the fact that radio is becoming ubiquitous. The communication industry was ramping up. Some pollsters were extraordinarily powerful and one of them actually wrote, that newspaper columns turkeys that im not going to have polls anymore because why spend the money on having a campaign . Dewey is going to win. I can tell you there were two magazines for me writing about dewey that was attaching, and the one is where on Election Night no, i will go back. The night he holds his final Campaign Rally in Madison Square garden, he gets on a train afterwards to take the train back up to albany to the Governors Mansion and he soldiers going to what he holds an impromptu meeting among all these reporters could been covering his campaign for months. He tells them whos going to be in his captain. He says you can tell anybody. Heres secretary of state, the sector treasury because you sure hes going to win. The other seat i could remember that was attaching to me was on Election Night hes in his suite at the hotel is up with the thumb and friends at some point in the night its not going as planned and relaxants are in the room with a yellow legal pad by himself and he just listens, turns on the radio all night long and slowly realizes whats about to happen to him. Yeah, solitary man on that edge. He definitely left his mark anyway on the Republican Party. Very influential. He was a progressive republican. Another element that i felt was very machiavelli improved and t you talk about that treatment is is republicans right after their convention, they picked dewey but it was a tight race in their, he was a progressive Teddy Roosevelt type republican. And then taft who was the son, right, the son of president taft, he was the leader of the conservatives, and a lot of people thought he should be the nominee. There was very close but the conservative republicans were in control of the congress. So what truman did was, a platforms between dewey platform and truman platform almost identical thats what you wrote, right . Thats right. So he put up in in this by calling congress back to try to enact dewey platform. I thought that was were going to talk about the Democratic National convention and i think shell do a piece of media. Were going to come back to that but you raise a wonderful come interesting point. Coming out of world war ii, there was a point in this into a debate as to this election is going to be a light between the past and future. The post war world was shaping up and which Political Party is going to be in charge and in print division on america next both Political Parties come out of world war ii had to figure out who they were and what they stood for, and republicans had an interesting situation because they had a rivalry within the party. It was the conservative faction that was run, headed up by robert taft and dewey who was a liberal. He was a liberal within Republican Base because he been raised to think that Teddy Roosevelt was the definition of the Republican Party. At the republican, even to the primaries, the oregon primary, fascinating story. Dewey was a front run along and all of a sudden hes about to lose to this dark horse and all the sudden neck and neck and oregon primary was decided and they have the first ever, ever broadcast radio president ial debate. Its kind of neat because you can look it up and watch it. Listen to it on youtube today but theres only one caution. Should communism be outlawed . Dewey of course being a prosecutor won one denominatio. Thats how it happened but a lot of the republicans were very uncomfortable with his platform because a lot of it agreed with harry truman. We will come back to Harry Trumans maneuver against that, but anyway, they both did the same thing. They both did these whistle stop to respond to it and crossing each others although truman had a very good joke about that. That dewey was falling and everybody will be able to follow him you want to tell that joke. Was sure. At the end of the campaigns, it came down to this amazing onetwo punch when he visited the same five cities come each of them one after the other. Chicago, cleveland, austin, new york. I that i need four state. During one of those, dewey have followed truman throughout the country during one of them turned out to be the first daughter margarets favorite speech of the campaign where truman start cracking these jokes and he does it on Live National radio, totally offthecuff, he makes up this story like theres this guy followed me everywhere i go, antitells whole story, hes following the and theres one place hes not going to follow me, and the crowd goes crazy. The Truman Library website is an amazing resource. Because you can go there and you can listen to these speeches. Theyre all up on the website and there fast any, a lot of fun to listen to. Brings them a lie when the voices are there. Its interesting seeing the old pictures and an old pictures its strange because they dont look the same as politicians do today. They dont act the same and as they said they looked young relatively speaking now. Anyway, when little personal note about dewey, at the end of the book when you bring everybody uptodate on the epilogue of different people. You mentioned that dewey when he lost, return to the compass make in york and was there for another six shoes and we did to private life and didnt do any more Public Service stuff. What he did was he went to a new York Law Firm as the named partner. It was an old law firm from like 1906 on Valentine Bush versus palmer and woodward. He became a very famous for. Thats why started my legal career in 1984 and i worked for a partner who was in his early 50s. He had done some work for dewey when dewey was running the place. Dewey die concerning what i think is you make it come 71, so about 13 years later. When they were chatting about something when we work for six months and the parker said to me, you know, that dewey really scared the hell out of me. Said, when i was in my ninth year, so he should have been made a partner right around then, he was up for partner and dewey asked me to do a special tax memo on issue i did know anything about, and im not a tax lawyer. Im a corporate lawyer when he asked me to do this so had to. I did it very quickly and it got all done and is like a 20 page thing. I gave it to him as he was walking out the door to go to florida to fly down to florida for the weekend. That weekend he died of a heart attack. And ive always wondered whether my memo was so bad that it gave him a heart attack. [laughing] yes, he red sox slugger, they played golf and hes getting ready to go to the airport to fly to washington so he could go to the Engagement Party of Richard Nixons daughter in the white house on that day. Thats what was happening. Yeah, really theyre all kinds of other stores which it will bring up come inside the firm about the way he ran the firm but he clearly took it out on law firm that he wasnt president. Thats the way everybody saw it. Truman, you wrote the last time we talked, you had the book the accident president and you talked about how we got into the vitiation to become the present as Vice President under fdr. Its an unusual story. Maybe look at the backgrounds of people have an idea about where this guy came from and why as a person i looked it it, very interesting. He had the highest popular reading of any president ever, and its also had the lowest. It was like 91 right after world war ii ended in august, and it was as low as 22. 22 is not ever reached trump has never gone below 30. George w. Bush went down to about 25 but truman was down at 22. That gives people an idea of how unpopular he got at certain points. Maybe a little background on what he did. I would just encourage people to start by looking at the picture. This is one of the most dramatic pictures ive ever seen in my life. What youre seeing is harry truman taking the president ial oath. He speaks 35 words come becomes most powerful man in the world. This is what my book the accident president is about. He was very much in a state he was the Vice President in the first place. He was never supposed be Vice President takes less time in the book to explain that, very exciting story. Here he is, he realizes when he becomes Vice President that president roosevelt is very sick. Most people understand what is happening and truman is the Vice President and hes never been a of the city, every governor of a state come november money to own his own home. No college degree, and he really has no idea whats going on at the white house and 82 days into this new regime, fdr dies of a cerebral hemorrhage and warm springs, georgia, entryman finds out about this. Hes rushed to the white house. He takes those, which are looking at it, stand to his left is his wife. To the left is market, first daughter, his only child. And he becomes the president of the trent very much by accident and those are his words. Right after this picture is taken he is ushered into a room with henry stimson, sector or, and the sector says by the way, you have this secret. This is a climactic months of world war ii. By the way, with a secret we have to tell you about. But i cant tell you what it is. He goes home to his tiny little apartment on connecticut avenue and hes exhausted and terrified, he has a ham sandwich with the class of buttermilk and goes to bed. One thing about truman, he was remarkably talented at being able to sleep during terrific bumps the pressure. He goes to sleep and theres this poignant moment when he wakes up in the middle of the night and the first lady of the United States never wanted to become never one to live in washington, he wakes and middleincome looks over and she city of the bed. They had separate beds and she is sobbing hysterically. Hes like, this is going to be tough. The next four months he unites the nation. We win the war and everything is going great. Hes this amazing story of the menu comes out of nowhere and unites america, blah, blah, blah. All of a sudden he has to be the president at a time when the country is moving, its peacetime. Nothing goes right but nothing wouldve gone right about who was president , given cannot of turmoil that had to happen economically in terms of migration of america, americans come all the stuff. He just wasnt going to work and americans are like this guy is a loser. We want him out. They are tired of the Democratic Party, tired of the new deal. Treatment eczema says no, were going to continue with the new deal but we will make it more liberal, we can bring it to the left and people freak out. By the time 1948 election approaches, everybody thinks his presidency is toast. Its interesting in the Midterm Election in 46 he had already lost the confidence of people, and the republicans took over both congress and the senate. One of the details, i dont know if this is commonly known but ive never heard of it, senator fulbright went to truman, fulbright was a democrat, went to treatment and said i want you to appoint a republican Vice President and then resign so that we have a republican president back and work with his caucus because the country is in such chaos we really cant do anything else. What an outstandingly interesting idea to hand to somebody from his own party. It makes you ask the question, can you imagine today if somebody came to donald trump and said well, the house of representatives is democrat so you should resign for a democratic Vice President , can you imagine that today . Of course truman comes up with his thing recess im not going to do that. Americans to consider seriously he had to put a press release out saying im not doing that and he called senator fulbright senator half bright. [laughing] sounds like yes trumps skills with meaning. I can imagine if donald was told to make Hillary Clinton his Vice President so she could become the president can exactly what candidate we would have with tweaking that night. Okay, thats how, now hes president. Take us through a couple, i mean, he met so many, it wasnt just the Economic Issues at home. The international issues, how to deal with the russians, how to do with they were our allies are recent allies who people argued about at this time. Are they going to be our allies . He told the story i think it was stimson who suggested that we share the secrets with the russians to develop trust because they are going to figure limit anyway. They will steal the anyway. Should we have this . Some of the other extraordinary proposals that would be made at the time. People really were not settled into the cold war mentality yet. No, but it increasingly felt like a wartime washington. It was the situation of israel, what israel was about to be born as a country and truman had to figure out what to do. Was he going to support the jews . The jews were clamoring for support from administration but the state department and Defense Department were saying no way. African africanamericans were g support from truman, the southern very powerful senators and governors were saying no civil rights. And, of course, the cold war. These were unsolvable situations that i dont think any president could have handled, but truman happen to be in the white house and he took the brunt of the blame. George marshall i think was in charge of the state department, and he would be very influential. The Marshall Plan anything else and he was against supporting israel are lots of political reasons. There were a lot of rational reasons for going against what we now consider get instinct, of course you would do civil rights and, of course, she would support israel. Thats the way its thought of later on but it was not the framework or the context in which he make his decisions. Think about the israel situation by it so. After world war ii i believe 6 million jews died in the camps, and the camps being liberated at the end of the war while truman was president. It was the darkest secret, came to the floor while truman was president. People were shocked that people want to support the jewish homeland. A lot of people in america. A lot of people didnt care. Truman was in in a situation we there were a lot of powerful, wealthy democratic donors who were jewish who were saying we are not going to support her campaign if you dont support the founding of this jewish nation. The state department and Defense Department were saying, no way, we are going to have a war with the soviets and we have that relationship with all these nations. In 1948 was a first year we import more oil than we produce ourselves. If we affinities. Nations theyre not going to sell us oil at a decent price and we are going to need it because there was going to be a war. Another issue he faced with regards to this was just the economics of it all. People sure that the only way we were going to support israel and visual would be found is if we sent an american troops to help this country be formed, otherwise israel wouldnt survive the war with the arabs. Truman was in a very difficult situation. He finally decides the heck with it, im going to support this. 90 of it at least. He makes his decision and the buck stops here and thats the way its going to be. It became much an issue during the election to complicate what we talk about. Why do we before to the election, the book is all about the process of it. We have video, right. Is yes. This is the Democratic National convention. This is one of my favorite moments, that truman comes in and theres literally people Walking Around with signs that say eisenhower for president , because nobody thinks truman can win. In theres this whole debacle were all of the southern white senators raise huge protests and walk out and abandon truman, say we are going to form our own lyrical party. By the time truman comes in yes to make a speech at the Democratic National convention, the situation is disaster and he gives this amazing speed that ignites the hall. We can hear. The Democratic Party. There have been differences of opinion. There have been some democratic wings. Those differences have been settled by a majority of vote as they should be. We speak to the common enemy. Thats up to you. [cheers and applause] the way you write that up in a book is just great. You capture the excitement and it is 2 00 in the morning and said people already gone and dont realize what happened and it turns it around and gets people on his side obviously and crucial because he was down by 30 points or something, right . It was the first televised, these conventions both republicans which happened about three weeks before and the democrats, these are the First National political president ial conventions televise but by the trying a ten time truman came on stage it was sold it because things are so delayed at all the Television People had gone home. It wasnt televised. An amazing moment what treatment it was really remarkable. Ill try to do this very clearly and concisely. He recognizes that the republican platform is a tricky. The republicans adopt a liberal republican platform saying we want to do this, this, this. Congress is controlled by conservative republicans who are not going to enact any of that. What truman does if he walks up on stage and says i donate an emergency session of congress where you guys should enact all the stuff that dewey wants to do because those are the things he wanted done. So the republicans are said they like, now what are we going to do . The crowd goes wild. If you get what hes done. He basically drives a stake right into the crisis that is plaguing the Republican Party 1940. After he gives his speech theres this moment where this woman named, i forget anybody when she comes out and she doesnt this think that nobody expected to do. She releases 50 does into the hall because she thinks this is a dramatic moment but the airconditioners are whirling above and all these birds and nobody is freaking out that these birds are going to get killed and you can hear sam rayburn, the former speaker of the house, yelling get those leaps out of here. You could hear on the radio. What a great machiavellian movement. People probably dont realize its in your book of course that congress had already stopped its session and was wasnt going te taken until after the election. This was july or so that there were not planning a meeting agent until november. But he called them back to their all going to campaign for the next six months or whatever. They didnt do anything, right . He predicted it accurately. Nothing got done. He called it the turn of day session, turn of day. He had his own recent because in missouri there was a certain time were turn up for harvested and he said do anything special session of congress did was up the sales of turns. We have some pictures of this the Truman Campaign if i can talk a bit. Talk about the campaign. So truman realizes he cant win as we devices this plan to do, he cant win unless he does something totally unexpected and creates a president ial campaign unlike anything that it ever been done. He plans to break every rule that he possibly can. And really what it comes down to is he creates this situation where he goes around and he visits hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of towns were no president had never campaigned. Small towns all over the country. He gets on this train and his id is if we can expose Everyday Americans to the magic of the presidency, and if i can talk to people facetoface to understand what im saying, they will believe in me and they will vote for me. And so he creates this secret Research Department in Dupont Circle in washington, d. C. Picky set up a team of speechwriters in the white house, and this beach writers write this feature for big rallies but everything of these Research People were right all the stuff down on note cards, and an airplane will flight in every three or four days to wear with the train is coming in, hand over these briefcases so that when truman shows up in some little town he can say okay, i know you just have a new, you just built a new sausage factory, or there is a a war hero who passed away, or you have a new mayor. He would have some information to use to start an offthecuff speech that he could connect with these people and then he would just speak offthecuff about patriotism and decency and honor. Thats basically, thats how it worked. In the process he became really wasnt a president ial candidate. He becomes an american folk hero. I thought it was interesting how he began by giving speeches that were all written for him and just to do it in the normal way, and it ended up throwing more and more of that out and talking off the top of his head about what was on his mind, and that was what was effective. He was really not, he didnt have the orating skills of fdr so when he began his presidency he would have these speechwriters, the same one that sam rosenman who wrote fdrs speeches would write the speeches for truman but true most terrible at the livingston. Thats one of the reasons why his presidency went but if he spoke offthecuff come , if hed like a generic which is exactly what he was he could connect with people. Keep going to the slights. Theres more pictures of the campaigns. While were going to the next slide, the first question came in, goodwin went on this topic from john, and asks, truman had only met with fdr a couple of times but with others in the administration who were close to in the first 80 days of his presidency . In other words, date truman get a lot of help from the fdr administration . He did. He did. James burns, he appointed james burns his secretary of state. Burns was very pivotal. Sam rosenman helped him write his speeches. But really one of the things, a lot of i think historians have said, truman, he just picked up where roosevelt left and he just didnt do much during the war. He did a lot. As a matter fact he replaced the entire cabinet and very quickly, and new general tom clark. So essentially i think he really did create it and self but at the beginning yes through the war years there was henry stimson, james burns, sam rosenman. But after the war the figures they came up were young people, mostly lawyers that he handpicked. A lot of them didnt have a tremendous amount of political experience. After the war ended, by the time the 1948 election comes around, his real name go to was Clark Clifford wrote a lot of the speeches, was on the campaign trail the entire time, until o come out and at no political expense whatsoever. It was interesting to hear the start of, its always interesting when you go back and political history and you see summa, one stage for for the first time and with the rule is, in this case Clark Clifford because a big role in the 60s as well. Dimension in another place George Mcgovern was at Henry Wallace is was critical campaign, i mean, the campaign decisionmaking. I just thought those are interesting. Its like watching a movie and sing some of who becomes a big star later that starred at and stored in a small role. All the people who came into office in 1948 who just, by the way, john f. Kennedy. Nixon. Nixon. To have a picture and its during the campaign. Someone is on a horse. Who is on the horse . We dont know. Giving a speech on the back of this train and theres a guy who heckles him on top of a horse. [laughing] he comes out and opens up, looks at the horses teeth because most of his life he was an obscure armor. So he looks at the horses teeth and he says this is not a good horse. A guy gets mad and he rides away. [laughing] like every day of the campaign was a comedy of errors but at the same time, it wasnt. It was very serious business. That was definitely is feeling that the future of the world was at stake but truman had a good sense of humor. So this is detroit, a motorcade into twitter this is Labor Day Weekend and literally this is when the campaign begins. Truman shows up, Labor Day Weekend because detroit, home of the automobile factories, and he has this amazing rally at cadillac square. Right at the first weekend of the campaign everybody in the trump campaign, they are shocked because there are 100,000 people turned out in the streets in detroit. They make it in this car and the drive north of the pontiac. They drive through these little towns town in michigan and everywhere they go theres tens of thousands of people in the street to see them. Hes thinking, the whole campaign team, like this in the case has been everybody says were going to lose. Who are all these people . Sets the tone for the campaign. Why is he happy here . I have no idea. Its a great picture. Its a great picture because i think it captures in. Now we can talk but Henry Wallace. So Henry Wallace is the person who brings us back to russian interference in an election. So tell us who he is turkey was fdrs Vice President. How did he end up running on another platform and what was that platform . Henry wallace is the Vice President from come during 1944 and is pushed off the ticket very unexpectedly during the 1944 the 19 for four election to make way for truman because a lot of people thought that wallace was just a little weird. He was very far to the left and he made a lot of people uncomfortable. He was sort of a missed fifth miss the turkey gets pushed aside to make way for truman and is really not happy about it. He knows hes a massive you among liberal americans and after the war theres this one day where he comes to the white house and he sits down with truman and a bunch of other people and they sit in the widest and have lunch. They watch footage of an atomic test, atomic bomb going off. They can see it from different angles and wallace is completely unnerved. Hes like, this is wrong, we shouldnt be doing this. Just the fact were setting of these atomic test and the soviets to have bomb and we refuse to share the secret within. This is causing this new thing called the cold war. Wallace eventually breaks with truman and launches his own campaign called the progressive party, and he gives it the nickname picking names it gideons army, a biblical term, a very christian man. I talked to about what his campaign stood for, but there are these poignant moments where he was able to connect with people on the coast. A lot of young people and a lot of the liberties. W e b du bois, black americans, jewish americans, loved wallace and he could go to the american heartland and there would be riots, they are seeing the same division in america today. And same geography as well. And amazing how much if we can shift the terms. One of the thingss i found interesting was my story about moscow newspapers covering his triumph in new york. Reminded me of inauguration in 201617. It is an important point. And the people running his campaign was aligned with the communist party in the United States. Memoirs in 2012 explain what they are doing. Very popular president ial candidate, that mirrored the communist party platform. One of the things i want to say about wallace, the whole idea that after all this happened he was so sure, humiliated and election. And he supported truman and other things, the soviets are the bad guys. Interesting time to change your opinion. He did it right during the mccarthy era. He wasnt disavowing his past, something that moscow was not operating on. Henry wallace and the progressive party, tell us Strom Thurmond is a democrat like harry truman but not exactly because hes a southern democrat. Useful to explain not only that but the switch from the democrat to the republican to southern strategy, that is with us. Guest it was fascinating to me on so many levels. A paper on American History and so many levels. What they did, one of the reasons was the Democratic Party, you have the left side of the party that goes with Henry Wallace, the conservative part of the party that goes with Strom Thurmond, he has lost a bunch of voters right there. What thurmond was doing, they launched the Dixiecrat Party in opposition to trumans of the rights, it is pure and simple. That is the way it is always been, Strom Thurmonds father was supposed to be something you cant make up. Supposed to be a governor of South Carolina, the political argument, he shot and killed a man and thurmond was a young boy. Strom thurmonds father becomes the lawyer for a man named pitchfork tillman, this figure who really united the Democratic Party in the south, as the party of racism and White Supremacy and disenfranchised africanamerican voters so Strom Thurmond group with this and went from a large is a civil rights thing, no way, i am going to fight. He becomes head of the Dixiecrat Party. On the face of it, the states rights Democratic Party, their theory is the federal government should not be able to tell states what our rules are in our state and our state is White Supremacy, people are not allowed to vote, that is his theory. He launched this incredible campaign, but he has secrets of his own. They came out in public in 2005. Coming into a Political Awareness and nearly 60s, very influential figure of racism at that time it became senator since and he was still a senator at the age of 100 and in addition he had young lives, dont know how many, much younger wives and making children for a while but an interesting character all around even against lbj when lbj was president of the time, wasnt aware, at least in the popular notion in 15 or 20 years, he had run on this platform in 1948, he was known as a racist. I found it fascinating. A couple of thoughts. Im careful in the book to make sure people understand the decisions people are making in the campaign, the ideas people embraced came into context. We as americans, you will see that i am careful about understanding where he is coming from, ideas and traditions that had been in the south for generations and generations. Theres a reason he won four states. He believed what he was saying and from a macro point of view it is important to point out all through the early part of the Twentieth Century there was this idea of solid south in the Democratic Party and that issue was built around race, it goes from 1877 when there was a fight for the white house, a complicated situation but reconstruction ended and the federal government said we can move this candidate over here, you can make your own rules so all of the states became very segregated and White Supremacy was in place and that is where it was. Solid south of the Democratic Party because they were antiparty of lincoln. 1948 is important because that is when it all shifted. Solid south campaigned against the civil rights program, launched their own party and that is how it ended up, conservatives politically, theoretically and very one simple issue, that is when it all started, that may be changing. Ironic too the conclusion in the 1876 election, another new york governor at the time was a democrat and republicans made the deal to get the republican president back in even though the republicans were giving up on why they fought the civil war 12 years earlier. You look at that and go wow, to take that short a time. It is an important point that you raised. The decisions we make in our politics can have an effect on generations of Political Parties and our voters. That is why when somebody comes in and creates a cyclone they can flow out. If you read history you know cyclones make things fallout in strange ways. So that is Strom Thurmond and you tell the story near the end, the story of his daughter. He house her daughter when he was a teenager, this daughter was half africanamerican, made the tell that story because thats a public story but also interesting, especially his relationship with her because it does seem to be paternal and caring and attentive for that kind of circumstance. I agree with you. The story where hes campaigning on this White Supremacy issue, he has a daughter that he fathered with an africanamerican woman and it is a secret, takes care of her financially, but after he dies she writes a memoir of what happened in such a moving moment, follows this election through and heres the things he is saying. They have no right to be in our swimming pools and churches, they shouldnt be voting, these kinds of things. She had just married an africanamerican man and they are seeing this and listening on the radio and this poor woman is married to an africanamerican man, this whole idea that Strom Thurmond is her father and listening to Campaign Speeches on the radio. After he loses, how can you say those things, why would you do that, how do you feel . He explains to her from where he comes from, these are american traditions, americans are supposed to be, nobody loves and cares more than me. That is what he said. Using the negro race in his words. It is a poignant moment. Inexplicable. The reason i like that story, it gives us some hope that a certain amount of hatred and animosity is performative as people say now or for show. Mark twain talked about lynching, they can be talked out of it fairly easy, very few people want to do the lynching. You can see the same thing about what is going on now. Most of the protesters, when things start, when they are in a crowd doing one thing, and gives you hope about whatever progress we can make, 90 of people shouting something dont believe what they are shouting. Thats where leadership comes in, lets not do this, things change. There are stories in history about one person says something, stops the crowd, doing something really stupid. Elects leaders that will do that which is interesting, in this election the year, it doesnt seem like truman has any chance. What did he say, he said to one person when his wife was there only two people believe why dont you tell that . The last line. We are done with strom. This quick story and answer your question. So sure the Eightieth Congress the Republican Party is about to take power for the first time in so many years in the white house that they vote in a new plan to up the budget, to unheard of 80, 000. What they are having, to his left is out in berkeley. To his right, by the American Flag is the first daughter in law and they are having quite a good time. Republicans thought they would spend on do we. On Election Night when he wins, a woman named india edwards, wonderful, charismatic, powerful woman, the highranking woman in the democratic National Committee at the time and it is wellknown trumans wife didnt think they sit together and harry says, harry, his wife, india, and his wife is not the other. We have time for a couple questions. When is being asked, about the media. The media predicted as we were discussing earlier, every single newspaper knew truman would lose and not just by a little bit, but issue in. They all a story from one of the washington papers, Washington Post, invited truman, they were going to eat it. I dont know if people know the expression, explain the background. He experiences Election Night in kansas city, and a lot of that generation can say they knew where they were on two occasions and that is when they found out about pearl harbor and found out news of the election 1948, it was a big deal. He gets on the train and stops in st. Louis, the chicago tribune, he holds it up, printed the headline do we defeat truman, he holds it up to the famous picture and gets back and goes to washington and David Mccullough said that this was the Biggest Party washington had ever thrown or ever seen. The Washington Post hung a sign, you are invited to a crow banquet. If you said something wrong you eat crow. A lot of the media had a lot to answer for and theres a couple reasons. We are seeing a lot of polls saying theres no way trump can win. I see that every day, the polls are this in the polls i that, dont believe the polls. Go out and vote who you think should win. The other reason this is interesting is truman made claims at the time that resonate now because of the whole issue of fake news. He made a big speech in cleveland where he said all of these newspaper reporters, always pollsters are saying i cant win. They are controlled by the same people who dont want me to win, dont believe them, go out and voted vote they did. Host a couple questions. From john zipper. Was truman surprise that he won in 1948 or did he believe in his Campaign Strategy . The answer to both is no and yes. He believed in his Campaign Strategy. Throughout the campaign, one of the things that shock people because he lived on this train with people, lived on this train, it was not pleasant, there were no showers, it was a grueling, difficult thing and people were shocked there was only one person insisting with complete confidence that he was going to win and that was truman because he had confidence in his strategy, confidence in his campaign. Did i answer the question . Was he surprised he won but we told the story that he always believed he was going to win. Wasnt surprised but there is this wonderful moment. It took a long time to get to the polls, not like today where electronic and computerized. By the time he realized he had won he shows up at Campaign Headquarters at 6 00 in the morning and people are exhausted and he shuts himself in a room to call his wife. There is no email or texting. There is a reporter named robert nixon who was on the campaign trail the whole time, found out truman was there at campaign had quarters, he had gone 10 minutes earlier, showed up in his pajamas with an overcoat at the top and he peeks through the door and sees truman crying to his wife. So a moving moment, it was still a shocker. Host a good question for someone who studied the election from kevin reese, did truman win or did dewey and the gop lose it . Great question. One of you going down and one of you going up. Through the chapter i expressed a lot about why truman won, one of the reasons do we dewey lost, this critical situation he made earlier in the campaign, dewey ran a campaign for governor in 1940, he ran a bunch of campaigns and lost and he ran two campaigns for governor where they were not attacking, highlevel, not engaging, a lot of rhetoric and he had won so he decided to run this high end campaign wrapped around the term called unity. It was based on unity so he never attacked truman, barely mentioned trumans name, spoke nothing on any of the issues because he believed he was going to get in the white house so if he made the issues, speech after speech after speech about unity and that was his Campaign Strategy, it was not expected so the answer to the question was no. Host David Lloyd Jones was how come the most solidly republican cities were the most solidly progressive in previous generations . Say that again. Solidly read republican areas were solidly progressive in previous generations. I dont know whether that is accurate or not. What areas . Doesnt say. Must mean the midwest and so on but the midwest at the time were progressive republican, in his part of the Republican Party, that was midwestern, they were in favor as dewey was in terms of civil rights but also environmental issues, cleaning up the water of the great lakes so i am not quite sure what that one can do. An interesting one from edward cashmere. Lack of a definite and uncertain result harmful to Public Health and the democratic process or does it help . The fact that we dont know right away who won, is this a good thing or a bad thing . Different than it would have been. Back then, the actual process of counting votes was very difficult where today it should be clearcut. I am going to say it is detrimental because it is important people have faith in the democratic process and i am hoping and praying, we are coming up on a big election. A very historic moment for our country. Both sides obviously believe they are right and both sides believe they are going to win and i think if there is an election resulted is not decisive it is not going to help us. Unfortunately theres all sorts of technology involved. One thing i hope for in november of this year, the voting process works so whatever happens we can accept and say this is the democratic process, and election the work that is lawful and we can get down to business. Host after the 2004 election, george w. Bush in san francisco, we really believe in democracy. I ask people, this is an emotional election, all of you have a strong emotional reaction so how many were related, 3 little ladies happy about election. I am not so happy. How many had this experience . You were very happy the democratic process won in a majority of cases, what are you talking about . There is nobody that reacts to the democratic process, another reason it has to be clear and not muddled, but the uncertainty is, did it get stolen, most people know, illinois in 1960, it doesnt seem like a person who ended up being president which is a crucial thing that got the most elections. One last question, kevin reese with another gop, would he have beaten truman . Guest great question. I have no idea. There are a lot of monday morning quarterbacks, Richard Nixon firmly believed it was not a candidate, he would have won. Would be a very clear division. It is an interesting question, on the same lines the question i am often asked is what would have happened if dewey won, if republicans would have pulled out this election. I honestly think dewey have been a terrific two term president , he would have been a wonderful president. Things might not have been that different in many ways then it turned out, one thing that came up in conversation was whether the whole mccarthy era would have happened if dewey was president. A talk i had a couple days ago with a great biography larry tie, came out with a wonderful biography of mccarthy and that is a critical issue because truman, everybody had a hard time standing up to mccarthy but dewey was a prosecutor and a lawyer, would have took them apart. Host eisenhower was up for grabs, decided not to run but he did meet with dewey, eisenhower slid into that role and became the republican two term president and dewey could have been about the same or Something Like that. Guest the first thing dewey did to begin, everybody wanted eisenhower to run a democratic ticket because no way harry truman could win. Lets get eisenhower. He doesnt belong to any party, lets get him to run as a democrat. Eisenhower has no Political Party. Soon after that he appears in this calculated photo op with dewey one comment from our listeners, john jones, a statement, not a question. He thinks it is because truman had in singapore faith in integrity, nothing to do with corruption and never did and that is why he is considered a great president. Guest let me speak to that quickly. Truman left office, had a miserable approval rating. Why is it today the democrats love truman . Why is it today republicans love truman . You wont or donald trump or truman, you hear nancy pelosi quote truman, you hear judge roy moore quote truman. Why do they all hold him to this standard . For me the story of the 1948 election answers the question because here is a man who is such an absolute patriot, courageous man, with honor and decency fighting for what he believed did the right thing for the country and that sums it up for me. Host there is no disconnect between what he said and what he did. He was a rare politician. Thank you for writing another great book on truman and thanks to our audience. At the Commonwealth Club, 100 eighteenth year, thanks for joining us once again. Weekly this month we are featuring booktv programs, a preview of what is available on cspan2. Tuesday night i topic is science. Research scientologist susan have provided dual biography of geologist Bailey Willis and scientist robert hill and early studies of earthquake activity in Southern California and Space Shuttle endeavor pilot harry burks gives us a look at space travel and exploration. Ann druyen provides a followup to her late husband carl sagans study of space. It begins at 8 00 pm eastern. Enjoy booktv this weekend and every weekend on cspan2. Every weekend with the latest nonfiction books and authors. Cspan2 created by americas Cable Television company is a Public Service and brought to you by your television provider. Election day is here november 3rd. 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